Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I don't <blush> actually have an MBA - I left education and got a real job before the idea of adding another three letters to my sad wankey business card took hold..

This little house went under the hammer today at an auction that I was at for £70k.

http://www.eigroup.co.uk/onlineaucti...11017&l=495072


Previously it had sold for £132,500

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q...0WA4&s=1&n=100


That £50k loss is why your bank is in trouble, why you can't get a loan for flight training and why the housing market is about to fall off a cliff that will make 1991 look like the big yellow tree house having a party with tis was...


WWW

[student88]

Anyway back to the Apprentice - is it just me or are they all total looosers this year?

I'd have to agree! The quality of applicants this year it mighty low. Then again, I think to myself, what self respecting businessman or woman would give up a great career for a chance of being employed by SAS? I'd say they're more interested in their 15 minutes of fame - that'd be the only reason why I'd apply. Alan was right to give Kevin the sack, I just hope that Jenny (the ginger one) and Helene are next to go! I can't help but feel that they're all bullying Sara - her idea for a card to celebrate other religious festivals was great!

S88

[mustflywillfly]

Was in a well known FTO on the S Coast the other day. Overheard a couple of fellow wannabees talking about employment post training. They must only have been about 18 - 23 years old.

OMG!!! How completely naive and immature were these guys!! Apparently Ryanair is taking on 5000 pilots in the next 2 years because they are opening 33 new routes!!

Dream on!! Do the youngsters really wonder into these things with their eyes wide shut. At least when it comes to interviews I would hope that any self respecting airline would employ the more mature character with a little bit of real world nouse! These guys made me cringe.

Incidentally I echo NGB words, not just about the apprentice, lol, but about moving on and starting a new thread about how to survive the downturn. We don't really need much more doom and gloom , quite frankly if people haven't got the message that things are slowing down (to what degree is still unkown and speculation is a waste of time and can only prove to massage some peoples egos) then they deserve to crash and burn.

I continue with my training but with my head firmly screwed on! If certain peoples shock tactics haven't got through to the wannabee then I don't think they ever will. Let us move on!

MFWF

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You might have got the message but that doesn't mean we should stop broadcasting it.

You want a thread about surviving a downturn? Well start one then.


WWW

[mustflywillfly]

Thanks for that!

I got the message along time before this thread was even started, it didn't take a genius to work out that we had hit a peak and were now on the slope back down. I think I started questioning the wisdom of my career change well before all this recent doom and gloom. Hence my house went up for sale and I moved into rented earlier this year. Cash in the bank, lovely!

Now is that the royal we?

Cheers MFWF.

P.S WWW are you ever at work?? Or have EJ installed the tinternet on their flight decks now?

[A and C]

Modular training and continuing in a job, low or no credit is what the old git recomends!

Just as I have said from the start, it worked for me during the last big downturn but he important thing is to keep a positive attitude, the chances are all of this will have blown over by the time you have got the fATPL.

And the last thing is can we please pass the hat around for WWW as he will need some help when the 30% house price crash fails to happen and he has to get back on the property ladder.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm currently at badminton horse trials but I have an iPhone so I'm never offline unless actually airborne. Smart move to STR - nice feeling isn't it?

WWW

[redsnail]

Horse trials? I didn't even know there was a case to answer?

In Moscow...

[RMC]

WWW-It's not what you say it's the way that you say it.

"RMC - your belief in the local housing maket into which you have just bought is touching if not naive."

In my book that is unwarrented patronising.Don't have many buttons these days but that is one of them.

Bottom line is probably what most people know..there is going to be a drop in prices in most areas and the further south you go the worse it is likely to be. Those who did not buy below market value may well be in for a hard time.

End of input.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I never said anything. I typed something.

You can read it in any tone of voice you like including patronising. I have no control over that and its a major drawback of the old internet discussion board. 99% of people would get on 99% of the time with their fellow discussion members IF said discussion was going on in the pub. By nature of the medium people end up wanting to throttle one another here on a daily basis.

But it keeps it fun.


Right, I've had far too much Pimms and I'm going to have a snooze.

WWW (hic)

[BartV]

Europe will tear itself apart economically as the Euro brushes up to 1.50 euro to the dollar.

I just started reading this thread and WWW's above quote looks funny

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Its actually popped its head over the 1.60 threshold a few weeks back!

WWW

[Tootles the Taxi]

I work at what might be described as a 'boneyard'. In recent weeks the tug's have busy moving airframes from their somewhat random parking positions into neat rows separated by no more than a few feet. This has increased the amount of available parking (storage) area by at least 50%. Last time I saw this was around Oct'01 & I for one could not have imagined the number of relatively new aircraft (largely B777's) that arrived shortly thereafter.

I've been watching some of the now defunct Skybus fleet being delivered today; sad to see 3 A320's arriving within 20mins of each other for an uncertain future. Two weeks ago it was Aloha with 737-8's. Friends of mine who have recently secured employment with regional carriers here are now being laid off when only a month ago were told that the airlines couldn't fill the right-hand seats fast enough.

Things sure happen quickly in this industry.

[student88]

Am I correct in thinking that it's about $1,228 per tonne of fuel at the moment?

S88

[saccade]

"The Half-Life For Air Travel"

I know only a small minority are worried that oil prices are a threat to aviation on the long term, because, "we will invent our way out of it, there is plenty of oil, we just swap to alternatives, people need to fly, it will sort itself out" etc, etc.

The truth is that more and more experts are convinced that global production can not be increased much further:

Though largely unnoticed by the world media, a decisive moment in the peak oil debate came last September, when James Schlesinger declared that the "peakists" were right. You don't get closer to the American establishment and energy business than Schlesinger, who has served as chair of the Atomic Energy Commission, head of the CIA, Defense Secretary, Energy Secretary and adviser to countless oil companies. In a speech to a conference sponsored by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, Schlesinger said, "It's no longer the case that we have a few voices crying in the wilderness. The battle is over. The peakists have won."

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080512/hertsgaard

and in relation to aviation,

Ten or 15 years from now, air travel is likely to be significantly reduced; will be patronized by business travelers or the very wealthy; and will be limited to trans-oceanic or long-distance flights between major population centers.

http://www.fcnp.com/national_comment..._20080501.html

[Lurking123]

Peak Oil is a very real issue for everyone, not just for a few hundred ATPL wannabees. Maybe air transport will be hit first but, in the longer term, this is a world changing phenomena.

[Philpaz]

I think everyone will be suprised to see how many "ideas" never made it as far as the patent office. The oil companys are only interested in profit margins and as long as the world is addicted to oil there margins are high. When it all comes to a grinding halt the inventions that would have made oil burners a thing of the past long ago will be on sale, by the oil companys.
Well thats my opinion anyway.

[v6g]

Originally Posted by saccade

"we will invent our way out of it, there is plenty of oil, we just swap to alternatives, people need to fly, it will sort itself out"

- you forgot the dumbest-of-them-all: "there's huge reserves yet to be found"!

[A and C]

Seen it all before!

A good few years back (late 70's I think) Flight international had a publicity picture of a stage coach pulling up in front of a Concorde. The spoof caption read "due to worlds oil running short passengers travel to the airport by stage coach to save oil reserves for aviation". At the time the tree huggers told us that the oil would all be gone by 1995 and Flight international ran a story about these fears.

Well 13 years past the deadline set by the tree huggers and avation is bigger than ever, I have no doubt that an oil replacment is needed however I am also sure that given the huge rewards for the company that finds the "oil replacement" it won't be too long coming.

But untill then I see oil used less and less in industrys that can use alternative energy.

[saccade]

A good few years back (late 70's I think) Flight international had a publicity picture of a stage coach pulling up in front of a Concorde. The spoof caption read "due to worlds oil running short passengers travel to the airport by stage coach to save oil reserves for aviation". At the time the tree huggers told us that the oil would all be gone by 1995 and Flight international ran a story about these fears.

This must be the second (political induced) oil crises of 1979. The link below is interesting because it shows how high the interest of finding a replacement was in 1979. And 30 years later...
http://www.icao.int/icao/en/nr/1979/pio197914_e.pdf

I am also sure that given the huge rewards for the company that finds the "oil replacement" it won't be too long coming.

There are actually some alternatives, but the big problems are costs and volume. Petroleum based fuels are so incredibly cheap, so convenient and they provides so much energy that it is very hard to produce anything similar. An oil geologist has calculated that 1 barrel of oil produces as much energy as 12 workers during 1 year, and this says a lot about the true value of oil. The current 'replacements' are non-conventional (energy intensive) sources such as tar sands and maybe oil shale, since they are viable at these high prices. But they can't be produced at the high volumes and they are not a big answer to depleting conventional sources. Algae oil costs $800 per barrel, so it seems unlikely that bio fuels will save aviation.

But untill then I see oil used less and less in industrys that can use alternative energy.

This is happening already since 1980. The oil consumption per capita has peaked in 1980 and is in decline trough the use of other sources and better efficiency. The problem is that oil is still cheap enough for most users. Europeans pay $360 per barrel to fill up their cars, and nobody is considering the step to an electric powered car! Another big user, the petrochemical industry, also has no problems at all with higher oil prices.