Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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A mate of mine just bought a house in N.Ireland for 145k. A chap around the corner from him bought the same design of house a year ago for 190k.
We went for a drive at the weekend and played a game of "spot the sold sign". I think we saw about three, compared to hundreds of for sale signs. Also noticed a fair few "reduced for quick sale" stickers on the for sale signs.
Not before time either. Things got absolutely crazy here for a while, ex-council houses in rough, run-down estates selling for upwards of 160 grand, absolutely ludicrous.
I feel sorry for anyone affected negatively by it, but as a prospective first time buyer, I welcome it with open arms.
We went for a drive at the weekend and played a game of "spot the sold sign". I think we saw about three, compared to hundreds of for sale signs. Also noticed a fair few "reduced for quick sale" stickers on the for sale signs.
Not before time either. Things got absolutely crazy here for a while, ex-council houses in rough, run-down estates selling for upwards of 160 grand, absolutely ludicrous.
I feel sorry for anyone affected negatively by it, but as a prospective first time buyer, I welcome it with open arms.
The Nationwide house price figures for April were released this morning. They show the average house prices in the month fell by 1.1%. For this first time since 1996 this takes the 12 month Year-on-Year figure negative to -1%.
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf
The average UK house is now worth less than it was this time last year.
This has massive implications for consumer confidence. It means negative equity is back. It means BTL rental yields + capital appreciation is often now a negative sum. It means millions of people will have to dramatically curb their lifestyles now the brick built cash machine they sleep in has run out of cash.
It is massive.
WWW
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf
The average UK house is now worth less than it was this time last year.
This has massive implications for consumer confidence. It means negative equity is back. It means BTL rental yields + capital appreciation is often now a negative sum. It means millions of people will have to dramatically curb their lifestyles now the brick built cash machine they sleep in has run out of cash.
It is massive.
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Nationwide Airlines {South African based lo-co airline, Ed, WWW} ceased operations yesterday. It looks like they will be entering bankruptcy in the next few days?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...c&refer=africa
MaxJet.
Supposed financial difficulties and talk of the airline failing prompts a stopsell at one of the the UKs largest business travel agents.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...c&refer=africa
MaxJet.
Supposed financial difficulties and talk of the airline failing prompts a stopsell at one of the the UKs largest business travel agents.
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Like a lot of the moderators on this forum you seem to have developed a sense of your own self importance which is misplaced. I have a Masters Degree in Business Management which taught me one thing...how little I know. I have been involved in property for far longer than you so won't take lectures.
RTFA- I said prices in Scotland were currently not suffering a drop. I also said there are hot spots...and if you know where to look you can recession proof your deals.Fact there are micro environments which do go against the trend.
Like a lot of the moderators on this forum you seem to have developed a sense of your own self importance which is misplaced. I have a Masters Degree in Business Management which taught me one thing...how little I know. I have been involved in property for far longer than you so won't take lectures.
RTFA- I said prices in Scotland were currently not suffering a drop. I also said there are hot spots...and if you know where to look you can recession proof your deals.Fact there are micro environments which do go against the trend.
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RMC
I don't think anyone is refuting that some places are yet unaffected/will be less affected by property values dropping, but i think it is fair to say that the majority of people will suffer and the whole economy will be more prone to recession as a result.
Most of the opinions on here are very factual, well backed up and provide useful and informative reading for people considering investing large sums in flight training.
I started training in 2000 and gave up after getting my PPL a month pre-11/9, only to have finally completed it all in time for the next blow to the aviation industry- good timing eh!
Most of the opinions on here are very factual, well backed up and provide useful and informative reading for people considering investing large sums in flight training.
I started training in 2000 and gave up after getting my PPL a month pre-11/9, only to have finally completed it all in time for the next blow to the aviation industry- good timing eh!
RMC - I'm truly humbled by your MBA. You seem a little hostile about my observation that without Capital Appreciation the BTL game is pretty much over. You then inform us that you have been involved in property for a long time. I think I can guess why you are hostile about a perfectly correct observation.
Migas - as you don't like this thread I've banned you from it (for 48hrs) to save you the trouble of posting on it again.
WWW
Migas - as you don't like this thread I've banned you from it (for 48hrs) to save you the trouble of posting on it again.
WWW
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With all due respect, i don't think there's any need to ban people from posting. Let them be responsible for their own undoing by not being able to substantiate what they claim!
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Ditto With The Above!
...and some of us have been around the UK aviation industry for a long time.
I think we've established there is an economic downturn, live with it! It will bounce back, always has. The major UK airlines will survive, cut backs are inevitable, its happening now for a business plan for 2009, expect may be even more cuts for 2010.
The fact still remains there is alot of good news about the UK aviation scene, if you care to know/look what's going on and as David Brent said, "look at the whole pie.."
This thread of WWW's high economic platform of copy/paste material should be closed - we've all got what you think...so wind yer neck in and pick up a copy of Flight, that way you might have some idea what's going on i.e. Openskies for instance, and give Wannabe's some real advice!
Rant over! And rest....
I think we've established there is an economic downturn, live with it! It will bounce back, always has. The major UK airlines will survive, cut backs are inevitable, its happening now for a business plan for 2009, expect may be even more cuts for 2010.
The fact still remains there is alot of good news about the UK aviation scene, if you care to know/look what's going on and as David Brent said, "look at the whole pie.."
This thread of WWW's high economic platform of copy/paste material should be closed - we've all got what you think...so wind yer neck in and pick up a copy of Flight, that way you might have some idea what's going on i.e. Openskies for instance, and give Wannabe's some real advice!
Rant over! And rest....
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Growing evidence
RMC: well stated
. I am with you. it seems someone has lost the bearings here.
This thread from the start to the end is a complete set of non-senses, and should belong to Economic forums rather then PPrune.
RMC: well stated
. I am with you. it seems someone has lost the bearings here.This thread from the start to the end is a complete set of non-senses, and should belong to Economic forums rather then PPrune.
As a wannabe I'd probably say this is one of the most interesting and useful threads I've read on Pprune for some time.
Honiley - thanks for stepping in with that.
Nice to see you are consistent:
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...1803#post61803
Honiley said (20th September 2001, 21:53) :
WWW (or is it the Grim Reaper!?)
Forgive me if I sound a little tense, but I work for "Big Airways" and am obviously unsure of my future....
How much longer are you going to keep writing things that people can work out for themselves...For gods sake, lets just see how this industry develops in the next few months and we'll all see for ourselves...
I think enough has been said on this subject so please close your topic and wind yer neck in !!!
So over the last 7 years you still haven't lost your dislike of me talking here about Wannabe recruitment prospects. Last time you were part of BA facing difficulties and this time you are part of TuiFly who are overcrewed. If I'm saying things you don't like to read then try to remember the audience I'm trying to address is not you but the Wannabe making career plans.
Cheers
WWW
Nice to see you are consistent:
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...1803#post61803
Honiley said (20th September 2001, 21:53) :
WWW (or is it the Grim Reaper!?)
Forgive me if I sound a little tense, but I work for "Big Airways" and am obviously unsure of my future....
How much longer are you going to keep writing things that people can work out for themselves...For gods sake, lets just see how this industry develops in the next few months and we'll all see for ourselves...
I think enough has been said on this subject so please close your topic and wind yer neck in !!!
So over the last 7 years you still haven't lost your dislike of me talking here about Wannabe recruitment prospects. Last time you were part of BA facing difficulties and this time you are part of TuiFly who are overcrewed. If I'm saying things you don't like to read then try to remember the audience I'm trying to address is not you but the Wannabe making career plans.
Cheers
WWW
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PPRuNe...and big red letters at the bottom mate! But thank you for taking the time to do a search...
This thread has loooong gone past helping Wannabe Career Prospects. But is nursing some elevated self importance!
01st May 2008 approaches, the new Summer Season; What's relevant now is how Q4, in aviation terms, of this year is shaping up i.e. the traditional recruitment time of year! We are already getting a very clear picture, lots still to happen; Wannabes have access to Pro Pilots here, who are prepared to have a look, some who have a very good understanding of the industry due to experience...this is where this thread should re-start!
H
This thread has loooong gone past helping Wannabe Career Prospects. But is nursing some elevated self importance!
01st May 2008 approaches, the new Summer Season; What's relevant now is how Q4, in aviation terms, of this year is shaping up i.e. the traditional recruitment time of year! We are already getting a very clear picture, lots still to happen; Wannabes have access to Pro Pilots here, who are prepared to have a look, some who have a very good understanding of the industry due to experience...this is where this thread should re-start!
H
Why is the 1st May the start of the summer season? My airline started flying the summer programme some weeks ago.
You've no comment on the fact that in Sept 2001 my words of caution to Wannabes was 100% correct and that within 12 months jobs were non-existent. You just didn't like me saying it then and you don't like me saying it now. Is this just a Jersey trait?
You want this thread to somehow restart once there is a clear picture so that pro-pilots can comment who have a very clear good understanding of the industry due to experience. Have you been drinking?
We are entering a major recession. If you think different I beg you to make the counter argument here. Wannabes need a lively debate from which to draw their own conclusion which will inform their training decisions.
You're playing the man not the ball. Did I upset you in a previous life?
WWW
You've no comment on the fact that in Sept 2001 my words of caution to Wannabes was 100% correct and that within 12 months jobs were non-existent. You just didn't like me saying it then and you don't like me saying it now. Is this just a Jersey trait?
You want this thread to somehow restart once there is a clear picture so that pro-pilots can comment who have a very clear good understanding of the industry due to experience. Have you been drinking?
We are entering a major recession. If you think different I beg you to make the counter argument here. Wannabes need a lively debate from which to draw their own conclusion which will inform their training decisions.
You're playing the man not the ball. Did I upset you in a previous life?
WWW
Stop it Paris! You are 'talking us into a recession' with your 'doom and gloom' - why can't you just be happy and keep spending?!?
WWW
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Easyjet Fuel warning
"It is pretty obvious that if the recent significant rise in the fuel price is maintained, then our second half profits will be lower than we had previously expected," said chief executive Andy Harrison.
I'm not holding out for a 50% drop before buying a house. 30% is the most I expect to see sometime towards the second half of 2009. 50% would see us in a Depression not a Recession.
With the current outlook Andy Harrison (CEO easyJet) has changed the business plan quite significantly. From a plan of 12 new Airbuses late 2008, and in 2009 a removal of 10 737-700s but adding 36 Airbus 319s (net increase 26 aircraft). We now have a plan to lose 5 737-700s this year, and 25 737-700s plus 15 ex-GB Airways Airbus A320/321s in 2009.
This works out as a tiny growth of 7 aircraft this year and a fleet shrinkage of -4 aircraft next year. First time in a decade of operations that EZY have shrunk their fleet.
If you wanted a BellWeather then there one is ringing loud and clear
From hoovering up 300+ new pilots a year to needing to let some go. All in the matter of a few months. Did they mention that in the flying school brochure? Ryanair was the number one employer of ex-Oxford graduates by a country mile last year. They are parking a fifth of their fleet this winter..
WWW
With the current outlook Andy Harrison (CEO easyJet) has changed the business plan quite significantly. From a plan of 12 new Airbuses late 2008, and in 2009 a removal of 10 737-700s but adding 36 Airbus 319s (net increase 26 aircraft). We now have a plan to lose 5 737-700s this year, and 25 737-700s plus 15 ex-GB Airways Airbus A320/321s in 2009.
This works out as a tiny growth of 7 aircraft this year and a fleet shrinkage of -4 aircraft next year. First time in a decade of operations that EZY have shrunk their fleet.
If you wanted a BellWeather then there one is ringing loud and clear
From hoovering up 300+ new pilots a year to needing to let some go. All in the matter of a few months. Did they mention that in the flying school brochure? Ryanair was the number one employer of ex-Oxford graduates by a country mile last year. They are parking a fifth of their fleet this winter..
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EJ have recently pressed the pause button for offering ANY more CTC Wings Cadet graduates TR courses. The CTC marketing machine is selling an ever increasing number of courses to their customers, sorry "successful applicants" add to this Oxford, Scabair, FTE et al and the market will soon start to flood. EJ have traditionally hoovered up a lot of CTC grads, hence CTC are looking elsewhere to build airline relationships (apart from Thomson, BA, etc etc) such as FlyBe. This in turn reduces opportunities for grads from other integrated or modular courses.
Add to this the "credit crunch" and the continued reduction in airline recruitment across the board and I think that times really are going to be bloody hard for everyone for at least 2 years. I know that wannabees are a hardy bunch as flying is a dream for most people and not just a job but timing and finance will be EVERYTHING for the wannabee in the coming two years.
Is there any more to say really? We could continue with "growing evidence that the downturn is upon us" but I think we all know that a downturn is most definately upon us. How about a "Cunning ways to survive the downturn" thread!!
Anyway back to the Apprentice - is it just me or are they all total looosers this year?
Cheers
NGB
Add to this the "credit crunch" and the continued reduction in airline recruitment across the board and I think that times really are going to be bloody hard for everyone for at least 2 years. I know that wannabees are a hardy bunch as flying is a dream for most people and not just a job but timing and finance will be EVERYTHING for the wannabee in the coming two years.
Is there any more to say really? We could continue with "growing evidence that the downturn is upon us" but I think we all know that a downturn is most definately upon us. How about a "Cunning ways to survive the downturn" thread!!
Anyway back to the Apprentice - is it just me or are they all total looosers this year?
Cheers
NGB
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Worrying times indeed, with or without an MBA.
Reminds me of the months leading up to the time Moira Stewart on the BBC said 'Air Europe has ceased operations'. Different reasons this time maybe but still bad if you loose your job.
Batten down the hatches.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2....interestrates
Reminds me of the months leading up to the time Moira Stewart on the BBC said 'Air Europe has ceased operations'. Different reasons this time maybe but still bad if you loose your job.
Batten down the hatches.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2....interestrates