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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

West Coast 14th Apr 2021 15:20


Originally Posted by ATC Watcher (Post 11028027)
Guys, I know I am not in my natural habitat in this military forum so will not prolong this discussion too long anymore. just when one mention the right of self determination , and right to determine its allies, without looking at its consequences it is extremely simplistic. The right of self determination with its own " freedom fighters" , always labeled terrorists by the other side, has probably caused more deaths and misery since WW2 than the few conventional wars during the same period. . Just ask the Kurds for instance.

To come back to this tread, I am neither pro Russian nor pro Ukrainian, I have no horse in this race, just the impression of having seen the movie already before .

Who says the Ukrainians didn't consider the consequences of whom they aligned with?

Beamr 14th Apr 2021 16:43


Originally Posted by West Coast (Post 11028214)
Who says the Ukrainians didn't consider the consequences of whom they aligned with?

this pretty well sums it up in this thread. We have pro-Russians with their agenda present, and we have people from more distant countries participating (mostly from traditional "western" countries), but no one has yet stated being an Ukrainian. I would love to hear that point of view as well.

...and now I'll have my popcorn ready to see some new nick suddenly joining the forum with Ukraine as location and posting here as their first post giving the same arguments as certain pro-Russians here....

Lyneham Lad 14th Apr 2021 17:31

In The Times.
Biden seeks talks with Putin as Russian troops mass at Ukraine border


Ukraine gave warning today that Russia could deploy nuclear missiles to the Crimea as part of a massive military build-up in the volatile region.

Andrii Taran, Ukraine’s defence minister, said that Russia might also be planning to attack his country to secure water supplies for the Black Sea peninsula, which was annexed by the Kremlin in 2014. Crimea has suffered water shortages since Ukraine built a dam that cut off supplies to the region in 2017.

“Crimea’s infrastructure is being prepared for potentially storing nuclear weapons,” Taran, 66, told a European parliament defence committee. His comments came before an emergency meeting of defence and foreign ministers from Nato member states that was called because of the crisis. Taran did not provide evidence for his claims.

Kiev says that Russia has amassed about 80,000 troops on its borders with Ukraine in its biggest show of force in the region since a peace deal ended large-scale fighting in 2015. Nato has called Russia’s moves “unjustified, unexplained and deeply concerning”. President Biden has vowed that the United States will stand behind Ukraine.

As part of its build-up, Russia has sent tanks, rocket artillery and short-range ballistic missiles to a newly established military base in the Voronezh region, which is 150 miles from Ukraine. Russia also said today that its navy had begun a training exercise in the Black Sea before the arrival of two US warships in the region. Sergei Shoygu, the defence minister, said that Russia’s troop movements were a reaction to the “threatening military activity of Nato”, especially in Poland and the Baltic region.

Russia insists that it has no plans to attack Ukraine and the Kremlin has accused western countries of turning the region into a “powder keg”. A senior Kremlin official has said, however, that Russia would defend its citizens in the event of a Ukrainian military assault on breakaway regions controlled by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. Russia has handed out up to 400,000 passports in the disputed region since 2019.

Biden has urged Russia to de-escalate border tensions and proposed a face-to-face meeting with President Putin on neutral territory. Senior officials in Moscow today welcomed the proposal.

Leonid Slutsky, the head of the Russian parliament’s international affairs committee, said that Biden’s offer represented a move by Washington “from confrontation to dialogue”.

Konstantin Kosachyov, the speaker of the Russian upper house, said: “Suggesting a third country means that this offer of a meeting was made in earnest.”

The Kremlin said that certain conditions would need to be met for a meeting to go ahead, but gave no details. The talks would be the first US-Russia summit since Putin met President Trump in Helsinki in 2018. President Zelensky of Ukraine is due to meet President Macron in France on Friday to discuss the crisis.





skydivernigel 14th Apr 2021 21:18


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11028255)
... We have pro-Russians with their agenda present, and we have people ...

Not sure who Beamr is thinking of, but to be clear I'm not 'pro-Russian' (or anti-Russian or -American) nor work for the 'Internet Research Agency'...

Beamr 15th Apr 2021 03:53


Originally Posted by skydivernigel (Post 11028335)
Not sure who Beamr is thinking of, but to be clear I'm not 'pro-Russian' (or anti-Russian or -American) nor work for the 'Internet Research Agency'...

I wasn't thinking about you sir!

Asturias56 15th Apr 2021 06:49

Lets just say there are a number of new posters all of whom seem to be happy with Russia's motives and actions....... there are a few of the older pro Russian hands around (as there are the fire & brimstone warriors to the right) who we all love and cherish but it is odd to see so many newbies who don't seem to post on any other threads............ ;)

[email protected] 15th Apr 2021 07:04

Surely you're not suggesting that Vlad might have some cyber-geeks posting pro-russian views on social media? Whatever next, interfering in elections.????...........:)

Less Hair 15th Apr 2021 07:40

Cyberwar like right before when the little green men went to work back then.

Lordflasheart 15th Apr 2021 08:15

Little Green River Cruises ?
 
...
From Astrakhan up the Volga to Volgograd, along the Volga-Don Canal, down the Lower Don to Rostov and the Sea of Azov.

Max draft for the canal is 12 ft - length 460ft - beam 55 ft.

Should be plenty deep enough for the shallow draft corvettes, landing craft, river monitors, artillery gun boats, Dinassauts or whathaveyou, of the Caspian Flotilla to join the party. The Buyan class 'corvettes' (draft 8 ft) could shoot their Kalibr missiles without leaving home pond if they wanted. They did it before.

Plus - In less than ten days, you could move the whole of the St Petersburg National Guard Division on a free river cruise, to view the wonderful cathedrals of Ukraine.

I hope the two Arleigh Burkes got their underwater ears on. The Kilos will be waiting to show them the way.

LFH
...

T28B 15th Apr 2021 16:17

While we (collectively) have certainly beaten the political angles pretty hard in this thread - politics and military ops being related, that's not a surprise - focusing on the Military Aviation aspect of what's going on at the moment would certainly be of interest to our reader base in this particular sub forum.
Between drones, helicopters, reconaissance aircraft and 'posturing' using air assets there's bound to be some discussion we can undertake to avoid turning this into a hamsterwheel. ;)
Asking for a friend ... :E

ORAC 15th Apr 2021 20:25

Give an inch....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-Ukraine.html

Putin blocks ALL foreign warships from reaching Ukraine after Biden's Black Sea U-Turn: Russia closes Kerch Strait after Joe sent two Navy battleships but then called them off

President Joe Biden cancelled the deployment of two US warships from the Black Sea despite warning Vladimir Putin there would be 'repercussions' for the troop build-up in Ukraine.

Last week, Turkey said Washington was sending two warships to the Black Sea, in a decision Russia called an unfriendly provocation.

But the Biden administration reversed the decision after the Kremlin warned them to 'stay away for their own good', and gave Putin the chance to ramp up his military presence in Crimea and near the Ukrainian border.

White House officials decided not to send the ships to avoid needlessly escalating the situation with Russia over the Ukraine, a US defense official told Politico.

Hours later, Putin took advantage of Biden's U-turn back by closing off the Kerch Strait between Crimea and Russia, blocking all foreign warships from getting to Ukraine until October 2021.

Ukraine said the move was an 'act of war' and were disappointed foreign destroyers had turned around before one of Moscow's biggest escalations in the last 30 days.....

fitliker 15th Apr 2021 20:42

Some of the comments in that link are almost good enough for Jet Blast :)

highflyer40 15th Apr 2021 20:43


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11028825)
Give an inch....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-Ukraine.html

Putin blocks ALL foreign warships from reaching Ukraine after Biden's Black Sea U-Turn: Russia closes Kerch Strait after Joe sent two Navy battleships but then called them off

President Joe Biden cancelled the deployment of two US warships from the Black Sea despite warning Vladimir Putin there would be 'repercussions' for the troop build-up in Ukraine.

Last week, Turkey said Washington was sending two warships to the Black Sea, in a decision Russia called an unfriendly provocation.

But the Biden administration reversed the decision after the Kremlin warned them to 'stay away for their own good', and gave Putin the chance to ramp up his military presence in Crimea and near the Ukrainian border.

White House officials decided not to send the ships to avoid needlessly escalating the situation with Russia over the Ukraine, a US defense official told Politico.

Hours later, Putin took advantage of Biden's U-turn back by closing off the Kerch Strait between Crimea and Russia, blocking all foreign warships from getting to Ukraine until October 2021.

Ukraine said the move was an 'act of war' and were disappointed foreign destroyers had turned around before one of Moscow's biggest escalations in the last 30 days.....

How does blocking the Kerch Strait block foreign warships from entering Ukraine? They can still go into the Black Sea at will and go to Ukrainian ports?

Arent there port facilities at Odessa?

Add to that how often have western warships sailed into the Sea of Azov?

Finningley Boy 16th Apr 2021 01:45

Biden tells Putin 'now is the time to de-escalate' at the Ukrainian border | Daily Mail Online

Looks like Bide just blinked!:uhoh:

FB

​​​​​​

​​​​​​

Asturias56 16th Apr 2021 07:40

"blocking all foreign warships from getting to Ukraine until October 2021."

ORAC that's only the bit beyond the Kerch straights - Ukraine still has major Black Sea ports available such as Odessa

Asturias56 16th Apr 2021 07:42

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56755484

US imposes sanctions on Russia over cyber-attacks


Lordflasheart 16th Apr 2021 10:36

...

Add to that how often have western warships sailed into the Sea of Azov ?
No Arleigh Burkes will be going anywhere near the Sea of Azov because the Kerch Bridge is too low and the water depth at the bridge is too shallow.

Besides, they wouldn't want the little green men on the (Kerch) bridge tossing gash onto their nice clean deck when they get stuck.

LFH
...

peterlike 16th Apr 2021 11:51

NATO puts 40 000 troops on Russias border and Russia is called the aggressive one for massing troops in its own country. You gotta love the western propaganda!
All we need to find out is who owns all these newspapers then we'll know who the real problem is. Any ideas?

Beamr 16th Apr 2021 12:08


Originally Posted by peterlike (Post 11029130)
NATO puts 40 000 troops on Russias border and Russia is called the aggressive one for massing troops in its own country. You gotta love the western propaganda!
All we need to find out is who owns all these newspapers then we'll know who the real problem is. Any ideas?

And these alleged 40000 troops are exactly where?

fitliker 16th Apr 2021 13:29


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11029140)
And these alleged 40000 troops are exactly where?

Ironically , there are in the Catholic countries that invaded Orthodox Russia in 1600 and occupied Moscow for 13 years .

AnglianAV8R 16th Apr 2021 13:53


Originally Posted by [email protected] (Post 11028471)
Surely you're not suggesting that Vlad might have some cyber-geeks posting pro-russian views on social media? Whatever next, interfering in elections.????...........:)

ooooh, sounds like a job for 77 Bde

Beamr 16th Apr 2021 14:26


Originally Posted by fitliker (Post 11029193)
Ironically , there are in the Catholic countries that invaded Orthodox Russia in 1600 and occupied Moscow for 13 years .

That would be ironic. The defender europe 21 describes rather well that those 28000 NATO troops are going to be spread all over Europe, and much of those are located several countries away from russian border (eg croatia, hungary, germany, Netherlands etc). Even down to North Africa. So I have no idea where the figure 40k came from nor the idea that those would be next to russian border.

"Integrates approximately 28,000 multinational forces from 26 nations to conduct nearly simultaneous operations across more than 30 training areas in 12 countries."

"Demonstrates our ability to serve as a strategic security partner in the western Balkans and Black Sea regions while sustaining our abilities in northern Europe, the Caucasus, Ukraine and Africa."

source:
https://www.europeafrica.army.mil/DefenderEurope/

also, considering that Turkey has been a NATO country for more than half a century and they have a rather formidable size army, it sounds a bit lame to state that NATO presence would be uplifted heavily in the Black Sea area due to this exercise.

fitliker 16th Apr 2021 21:18

https://archive.org/details/EDIS-SWDPC-01-04

The Trumpeter Landfrey’s recorded on a wax cylinder who sounded the charge for the Light Brigade .
Apologies for the thread drift , but the old trumpeter sounded interesting .

Aegis8 17th Apr 2021 13:59

Thank you to the few who brought original thoughts to this thread. ATC Watcher great insight and still very valid today. Nato creeping ever closer to Russia's borders, is only amplifying this feeling.

Other posters are simply regurgitating the old cold war era lines: the commies are coming, the commies are coming!!!" Now it is just the Russians are coming... Repeating it over and over again does not make it true, although many will believe it. Goebbels would be so proud! So no point in wasting time with such age old trope.

As for new posters, I assume Asturias56 is speaking of me. Last time I checked, I have been a member of this forum, far longer than he has. Number of posts does not make you new...

Anyway back to the topic: Nato and the West calls for Russia to de-escalate are a bit rich.
As stated before:
1. Ukraine moved forces to the contact line, long before Russia started mobilizing.
2. Ukrainian forces are at the contact line, for their spring offensive on Donbas, the majority of the Russian forces are in known training areas.
3. Ukraine has not implemented the Minsk agreements.
4. Neither Germany nor France has held Ukraine accountable for the breach of the Minsk agreements.

So to de-escalate rests on Ukraine and the west, not on Russia.

Implement the Minsk agreements and peace will reign within and with Ukraine.

beardy 17th Apr 2021 14:23


Nato creeping ever closer to Russia's borders, is only amplifying this feeling
No problem so long as they don't cross the border, not something NATO, nor it's members have any desire to do.

Now Russia crossing borders into other countries? There seems to be a track record of that.

Beamr 17th Apr 2021 15:54


Originally Posted by Aegis8 (Post 11029735)
Goebbels would be so proud!

Did you just call other posters nazis?

Why Ukraine is not allowed to move their troops within their borders, but russia is?

Just This Once... 17th Apr 2021 18:51


Originally Posted by Aegis8 (Post 11029735)
Now it is just the Russians are coming... Repeating it over and over again does not make it true, although many will believe it. Goebbels would be so proud! So no point in wasting time with such age old trope.

All true but you missed out the bit where 'the Russians are coming' frequently turns into 'the Russians are here'. The only variation has been 'the little green men are here... just kidding, it's us Russians again but only on holiday... no, kidding again, it is a Russia invasion'.

Same for the Russians and the Nazis coming to a nice agreement and invading Poland. I'm sure Goebbels was very proud of Russia at that point.

Asturias56 18th Apr 2021 07:45

"Ukrainian forces are at the contact line, "

it is their country - it isn't part of Russia

Deltasierra010 18th Apr 2021 08:41

This a very volatile part of the world with many ethnic groups demanding autonomy, many having suffered genocide and ethnic cleansing over the centuries, we havn’t heard much about it because of Covid dominating the news but tens of thousands of troops are facing peach other in Nagorno Karabakh with Russia trying to stop a flare up again. Ukraine is just one of those regions, NATO and the US would well do to keep out of the squabbles, leave them to settle their own disputes. Most of Russia’s neighbours dislike them but that can be said of most of the US neighbours as well, it’s Russia’s backyard let them sort out the disputes and with extremist Islam in the mix the best of luck with that.

Lyneham Lad 18th Apr 2021 08:58

President Biden decides to cancel the deployment of two US warships to the Black Sea so as not to increase tensions - yet the UK is going ahead with deployment of a Type 45 plus a Type 23.

Article in The Sunday Times:-
British warships head for Black Sea as Russian troops mass on Ukrainian border


Royal Navy warships will sail for the Black Sea next month as tensions continue to rise between Ukrainian and Russian forces.

Putting the ships off the coast of Ukraine is intended to show solidarity with Kiev and Nato allies in the region after the President Biden decided to cancel the deployment of two American warships to the Black Sea last week for fear of escalating the crisis over the massing of Russian troops.

One Type 45 destroyer armed with anti-aircraft missiles and an anti-submarine Type 23 frigate will peel off from the Royal Navy’s carrier task group in the Mediterranean and head through the Bosphorus into the Black Sea, according to senior naval sources.

RAF F-35B Lightning stealth jets and Merlin submarine-hunting helicopters are to stand ready on the task group’s flag ship, the carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, to support the warships in the Black Sea should they be threatened by Russian warships, submarines or aircraft. HMS Queen Elizabeth has to stay in the Mediterranean because an international treaty prohibits aircraft carriers from entering the Black Sea.

The Royal Navy announced in February, before the current crisis, that the carrier’s supporting warships and aircraft would carry out the missions into the Black Sea as part of HMS Queen Elizabeth’s deployment to the Far East. The Ministry of Defence confirmed on Friday that the naval foray would go ahead despite the US decision to keep its warships out of the crisis zone.

“Operational planning continues and this still includes the Black Sea activity,” said a senior defence source. “The US decision will have no bearing on Carrier Strike Group’s 2021 plans.”

This apparent divergence between London and Washington follows the admission on Friday by General Sir Nick Carter, chief of defence staff, that the British government disagreed with Biden’s decision to withdraw all US and Nato troops from Afghanistan by September.

Tension has been rising since Moscow ordered a troop build-up near Ukraine’s eastern border late last month. Russian and Ukrainian gunboats were involved in a stand-off near the Crimean coast on Thursday.

RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint eavesdropping aircraft have flown eight missions over Ukraine to monitor Russian military communications since the start of the month. Four RAF Typhoon fighter jets will fly to Romania from RAF Lossiemouth this week to take part in Nato air policing patrols over the Black Sea, and hundreds of soldiers will head to Ukraine in the summer for a joint exercise, dubbed Cossack Mace, with the country’s border guard paramilitary force.

Willard Whyte 18th Apr 2021 10:17


Originally Posted by Aegis8 (Post 11029735)
As for new posters, I assume Asturias56 is speaking of me. Last time I checked, I have been a member of this forum, far longer than he has. Number of posts does not make you new...

Ah. Sleeper agent then...

denachtenmai 18th Apr 2021 10:41


Ah. Sleeper agent then...
Very good Willard :ok:

Asturias56 18th Apr 2021 12:47

Originally Posted by Aegis8 View Post
As for new posters, I assume Asturias56 is speaking of me. Last time I checked, I have been a member of this forum, far longer than he has. Number of posts does not make you new...

Well 22 posts in 13 years on PPrune is almost certainly unique - but all of them have been recent and 20 of the 22 are on this one subject in the last 2 weeks. You can see why there is a degree of scepticism about your background. Long term NATO sceptics like etudiant etc post regularly on a wide range of subjects (as do the aggressive folk on the other side of the argument). I just have a suspicious mind............

Dryce 18th Apr 2021 13:47


Originally Posted by Deltasierra010 (Post 11030085)
Most of Russia’s neighbours dislike them but that can be said of most of the US neighbours as well, it’s Russia’s backyard let them sort out the disputes and with extremist Islam in the mix the best of luck with that.

Interesting attempt at using 'dislike' as a means of arguing some sort of equivalence.

I think as regards my immediate neighbours I'd much rather be Canada or Mexico with the USA next door than Estonia, Ukraine, or Georgia .... or Sweden with modern day Russia on my border.

There's a difference between having a neighbour that irritates you - which seems to be what you imply dislike means in North America - and one you live in fear of - which seems to be what you imply dislike means east of Western Europe.



fitliker 18th Apr 2021 15:51

Will Russia invoke the UN charter to defend it citizens living in their ancestral homelands ?
Chairman Mao made a similar threat when he said that according to the Chinese constitution wherever Chinese people’s live is considered Chinese Sovereign soil .
Will the Russians use a similar statement to justify creating an autonomous region in the east for Russians ?

You know it is gonna get big when the Pope is talking Peace .
Ukrainian Catholics against Russian Orthodox . Might create another bigger schism between the two churches . Bigger than the great schism that lost Constantinople .


Finningley Boy 18th Apr 2021 20:10

Peter Hitchens writing in the Mail on Sunday today sticks to his constant position that that the West are picking a needless fight with Russia? More about how Russia is a poor country with an economy no more robust or bigger than that of Italy?

FB

flash8 18th Apr 2021 21:40


Will Russia invoke the UN charter to defend it citizens living in their ancestral homelands ?
1954... so not so ancestral )
For many older Russians the Crimea holds a magnetic hold. That may well be the tipping point despite any rationality, those that speak Russian will surely know the immortal line in Brat 2. Doesn't help that Ukraine has a comedian (literally) as President, even (previously) Willy Wonka had more competence. I lived there three years and nothing surprises me about the place.

WhatsaLizad? 19th Apr 2021 03:14


Originally Posted by Deltasierra010 (Post 11030085)
Most of Russia’s neighbours dislike them but that can be said of most of the US neighbours as well,

One of the most ridiculous statements I've ever read on PPrune and pretty much anywhere on the internet.

Let's take a short look at history regarding the treatment of Ukraine by Russia and one of it's stronger western neighbor's for instance.

I don't pretend that the US hasn't treated a few of it's smaller neighbors like an Amsterdam window saleslady, but we haven't cut their throats and fed them to the dogs like Russia has treated it's neighbors at times.

Deltasierra010 19th Apr 2021 06:17


Originally Posted by WhatsaLizad? (Post 11030441)
One of the most ridiculous statements I've ever read on PPrune and pretty much anywhere on the internet.

Let's take a short look at history regarding the treatment of Ukraine by Russia and one of it's stronger western neighbor's for instance.

I don't pretend that the US hasn't treated a few of it's smaller neighbors like an Amsterdam window saleslady, but we haven't cut their throats and fed them to the dogs like Russia has treated it's neighbors at times.

The US has done more than its share of killing overseas in the name of what it sees as freedom while making sure that it’s neighbours never get strong enough to be a military threat. However the present indications are that Biden does not want a direct confrontation over Ukraine and is leaving European nations to hassle Russia, this could easily escalate. Russia sees this a defending ethnic Russians in Ukraine and they show no signs of backing down, in fact they are reinforcing Crimea, we can only hope that nobody is crazy enough to start shooting.


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