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it’s neighbours never get strong enough to be a military threat. The implications of Europe and the UK positioning 40,000 or more, troops, aircraft and ships, on the borders of Kaliningrad would send what message? Since the country besides it's predominantly Russian population has elements of Ukrainian, Belarusian, Tatar, German, Armenian, Polish, and Lithuanian people, perhaps the justification could be termed prevention of "ethnic cleansing". While Ukraine is considerably larger than Kaliningrad, the comparison in size when considering a military threat from Russia can only be seen for what it is. "First they came for Estonia, then Lithuania, later they entered Poland, finally they came for.....but there was no one left to object." The strong, threatening and intimidating the weak, there are similarities with historic events. IG |
The US has done more than its share of killing overseas in the name of what it sees as freedom Actually, I think we learned it from your lot. |
Tsk, tsk, tsk............................ you'll be bringing up the Opium Wars next................. ;)
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West Coast, there are only 22 countries the UK has never invaded. I think that’s a record that will be hard to beat....
(It might be less than that - see link below reference Guatemala. I spent 3 happy months at Butcher radar in Belize back in 1979. The same may apply to a couple of the others as well) https://www.vice.com/en/article/xdmq...army-civil-war https://www.statista.com/chart/3441/...ed-by-britain/ https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f7334ffe8.jpeg |
You can see why the British never bothered - all a bit of a drossy collection TBH - maybe excepting Sweden.................. I'm pretty sure during the Great Game they pushed agents up into Turkmenistan and Tajikistan but the Russians got there first. Also I can't remember them invading the Congo (Zaire) or Greenland?
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We all seem to be forgetting one major fact, the U.K. and the USA agreed to protect the Ukraine... all of it, not a little here and a little there, but all of it in an agreement with the Ukraine for disarming their nuclear weapons, which at the time was the worlds third largest stockpile. We are obligated, like it or not.
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QRA from the Med ?
...
RAF F-35B Lightning stealth jets and Merlin submarine-hunting helicopters are to stand ready on the task group's flag ship, the carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, to support the warships in the Black Sea should they be threatened by Russian warships, submarines or aircraft. HMS Queen Elizabeth has to stay in the Mediterranean because an international treaty prohibits aircraft carriers from entering the Black Sea. Ready 10, loaded for bear - then ten days waiting for dip clearance. :E LFH ... |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11030783)
We all seem to be forgetting one major fact, the U.K. and the USA agreed to protect the Ukraine... all of it, not a little here and a little there, but all of it in an agreement with the Ukraine for disarming their nuclear weapons, which at the time was the worlds third largest stockpile. We are obligated, like it or not.
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11030783)
We all seem to be forgetting one major fact, the U.K. and the USA agreed to protect the Ukraine... all of it, not a little here and a little there, but all of it in an agreement with the Ukraine for disarming their nuclear weapons, which at the time was the worlds third largest stockpile. We are obligated, like it or not.
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Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 11030883)
Agreed. Imagine China will watch closely what the response of the US will be. Potentially a indication of what aggression against Taiwan will yield them,
As pragmatic Chinese, I expect the Taiwanese to return to the motherland when the price is right, irrespective of the US's wishes. Given the technology treasures Taiwan offers, that price will be high. |
Originally Posted by etudiant
(Post 11030928)
Judging by the rate of evolution of China's military capacity, defending Taiwan will be increasingly problematic. Taiwan could easily go nuclear as a deterrent, but that would precipitate the crisis that no one wants, so a slow boil is more likely. .
As pragmatic Chinese, I expect the Taiwanese to return to the motherland when the price is right, irrespective of the US's wishes. Given the technology treasures Taiwan offers, that price will be high. |
100,000 rooskis massed on the border.
That's.. ermm... quite a few soldiers for a mere show of force? Or am I wrong... |
Soldiers? They're just friends, honest.................
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Russia destroying mercenaries and vehicles in Syria last night . Who knows maybe they are serious about those red lines ?
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[QUOTE=ORAC;11030538]West Coast, there are only 22 countries the UK has never invaded. I think that’s a record that will be hard to beat....
(It might be less than that - see link below reference Guatemala. I spent 3 happy months at Butcher radar in Belize back in 1979. The same may apply to a couple of the others as well) QUOTE] ORAC- that depends on how you classify 'invade'. The source book apparently does so thus:
A chap on Quora - search for (sorry- too virginal to post URLs) How-accurate-is-the-assertion-that-Britain-has-invaded-all-but-22-countries-in-the-world - has thrashed through the book and come up with some interesting and differing views on the actuality. Lots of links to the actions and quite a fascinating summary. Yes, we still made our presence known around the world that in today's light is unpalatable. I'm sure someone will now say 'still not good reading though....' |
Originally Posted by tdracer
(Post 11030954)
With Taiwan watching what's happened in Hong Kong, I respectfully disagree than Taiwan will ever voluntarily return - regardless of price.
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With action in Eastern Europe would not a play on Taiwan work at the some time? Russia & China are a lot closer now than before....War in Europe, the Pearl Harbour....War in Ukraine, then Taiwan?
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Originally Posted by Fliegenmong
(Post 11031257)
With action in Eastern Europe would not a play on Taiwan work at the some time? Russia & China are a lot closer now than before....War in Europe, the Pearl Harbour....War in Ukraine, then Taiwan?
Russia is reacting to the Ukraine leadership's decision to demonize that country's substantial Russian minority. When the head of a state is on record as desiring the removal/disappearance of a substantial minority, it usually results in civil war or genocide. Thus far, we've only had a desultory civil war, probably the best possible result given the Kiev mindset. Russia seems desperate to impress the Ukraine leadership that a renewed assault on the Donbas enclaves would be suicidal. Given that the tenuous legitimacy of the Russian regime rests on its claims of protecting the Russian community, I'd think that a wave of 'ethnic cleansing' in the Donbas would be fatal for the current Russian leadership. Presumably it would be replaced by something much nastier. China and Taiwan both agree, there is but one China. The 'one country, two systems' formulation has kept the peace for several decades under the US military aegis, which is now looking rather threadbare. Still, the value of Taiwan is its people and the technical know how they have achieved. Those Chinese assets evaporate in a war, which Beijing understands quite well. Beijing can afford to wait for a decade, while moving to show Taiwan that the US relationship is less attractive than a full reintegration with the motherland. It would be interesting to see whether India will step in to try to woo Taiwan, as that country offers even more potential than China. |
Originally Posted by etudiant
(Post 11031385)
Possibly true, but there has to be a plausible purpose for these countries, all of whom have catastrophic birth rates well below replacement value, to start killing each other's most fertile population segment.
Russia is reacting to the Ukraine leadership's decision to demonize that country's substantial Russian minority. When the head of a state is on record as desiring the removal/disappearance of a substantial minority, it usually results in civil war or genocide. Thus far, we've only had a desultory civil war, probably the best possible result given the Kiev mindset. Russia seems desperate to impress the Ukraine leadership that a renewed assault on the Donbass enclaves would be suicidal. Given that the tenuous legitimacy of the Russian regime rests on its claims of protecting the Russian community, I'd think that a wave of 'ethnic cleansing' in the Donbass would be fatal for the current Russian leadership. Presumably it would be replaced by something much nastier. China and Taiwan both agree, there is but one China. The 'one country, two systems' formulation has kept the peace for several decades under the US military aegis, which is now looking rather threadbare. Still, the value of Taiwan is its people and the technical know how they have achieved. Those Chinese assets evaporate in a war, which Beijing understands quite well. Beijing can afford to wait for a decade, while moving to show Taiwan that the US relationship is less attractive than a full reintegration with the motherland. It would be interesting to see whether India will step in to try to woo Taiwan, as that country offers even more potential than China. |
Originally Posted by highflyer40
(Post 11031400)
Have you ever been to Taiwan? The people would rather die than go back to being part of China. The problem is mainland China is also of the same mindset in reverse. They will do everything to reabsorb Taiwan. When that happens the rest of the world will make lots of noise but in the end do nothing.
Otherwise, your forecast is likely correct. I might add that there does not appear to be crushing anxiety in Taiwan, the news reports I've seen indicate the drought is getting more attention than the threat of a Chinese invasion. |
There are a couple of threads about China & Taiwan - this one is for E Europe I think
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Originally Posted by etudiant
(Post 11031385)
Russia is reacting to the Ukraine leadership's decision to demonize that country's substantial Russian minority.
When the head of a state is on record as desiring the removal/disappearance of a substantial minority, it usually results in civil war or genocide. |
And now back to your regular programme...
Article, video & photos etc in The Times. Images show Russian ‘invasion force’ near border Ukraine accused Russian-backed separatists of attempting to provoke its military yesterday, as satellite images indicate that the Kremlin has dramatically increased the number of its warplanes massing on the countries’ shared border and in Crimea. There are growing fears that Russia could repeat its 2014 military incursion into Ukraine, when Crimea was annexed and Moscow provided support for a nascent separatist movement in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Airborne troops, attack helicopters and reconnaissance drones have also been stationed near the border. Satellite images published by The Wall Street Journal show Su-30 fighters on a runway in Crimea. The photographs were taken on April 16, according to the newspaper. Images taken in late March do not show the aircraft. Images of locations elsewhere in the region show that other warplanes have also been flown in, including Su-34s and Su-27s. “[The Russians] have appropriately deployed the various elements of air power that would be needed to establish air superiority over the battlefield and directly support the ground troops,” Philip Breedlove, a retired US air force general, told the newspaper. Breedlove was the top Nato military commander during the 2014 conflict. Officials in Kiev said yesterday that the massed ranks of Russian troops already outweighed the forces that took part in the Kremlin’s operation in 2014. “Russian troops continue to arrive in close proximity to our borders in the northeast, in the east and in the south. “In about a week they are expected to reach a combined force of over 120,000 troops,” said Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister. He added: “This does not mean that they will stop building up their forces at that number.” Kuleba said that 30 Ukrainian troops had been killed on the front line since the start of the year, most by snipers. “Ukrainian troops have been ordered not to react to provocations,” he said. “A sniper shot is premeditated murder.” In the Donbas region Ukrainian soldiers said they were under regular sniper fire from pro-Russian forces that they believe include members of the regular Russian army. Russia has denied sending troops to Ukraine and says that any of its servicemen there are “on vacation.” More than 14,000 people have been killed since the conflict erupted. At a front-line position near the east Ukrainian village of Shumy, a Ukrainian serviceman named Andriy pointed out where the bullets were coming from: “See the white roof over there? Look a little to right from it. This is the water tower. The snipers shoot from it. They want us to shoot back to destroy this watertower so that they can accuse Ukraine of destroying important infrastructure,” he said. Another soldier said pro-Russian forces were barely 70 metres from their lines: “The snipers get into the ditch and click their triggers. The sound is very clear. They do it to show that they are there. This is psychological pressure.” Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, said on Monday that Russia had concentrated more than 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s border and in Crimea. The figure was later revised downwards by the EU to more than 100,000. The build up comes at a low ebb in relations between Washington and Moscow after the US imposed a series of sanctions and expulsions last week targeting Russian interests. Russia has said the deployments are part of a three-week military drill to test combat readiness in response to what it calls threatening behaviour from Nato. It has said the exercise is due to end within two weeks. William Burns, the CIA director, told Congress last week that the build up was probably an effort by Moscow to intimidate the Ukrainian government, as a warning to the Biden administration. “That build up has reached the point where it could also provide the basis for a limited military incursion as well,” said Burns. “So it’s something not only the United States but also our allies have to take very seriously.” Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, said yesterday that Ukraine was seeking to destabilise the situation in the Donbas region. He also accused Nato of “provocative actions”. Before imposing sanctions on Moscow last week President Biden, 78, spoke to President Putin and proposed a summit between the two leaders, saying he wanted a constructive relationship. The meeting has yet to be confirmed but Putin, 68, will take part in a virtual climate conference tomorrow and on Friday organised by the White House. |
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56842763
Russia to pull troops back from near UkraineAfter weeks of tension over a build-up of Russian troops close to Ukraine's border, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered a number of units in the area back to their bases.The EU estimated that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers had amassed near the border as well as in Crimea, which was seized and annexed by Russia in 2014. Speaking in Crimea, Mr Shoigu said units on exercise would return to base. The aims of the "snap checks" had been achieved, he added. "The troops have demonstrated their ability to provide a credible defence for the country," he said, adding that he had instructed the commanders of units from the 58th and 41st armies as well as several airborne divisions to start returning to their "permanent bases" on Friday and to complete the operation by 1 May. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky raised the troop build-up with European leaders last week, and has since challenged Russia's President Vladimir Putin to meet him in the conflict zone. Nato leaders have also sounded the alarm and have called a summit in June when Russia will be high on the agenda. Although Russia has shrugged off the build-up as training exercises in response to "threatening" actions from Nato, it is also said to be planning to cordon off areas of the Black Sea to foreign shipping. Ukraine fears its ports could be affected. As tensions escalated between Russia and the West, US President Joe Biden contacted Mr Putin last week proposing a summit in a third country. In a state of the nation address on Wednesday, President Putin warned the West against "crossing the red line". Conflict in eastern Ukraine broke out in 2014, after the seizure of Crimea from Ukraine. Russian-backed troops captured large areas of the Luhansk and Donetsk region and there have been a number of breaches of a ceasefire in the east in recent weeks. A Ukrainian soldier was fatally wounded in shelling on Thursday, in what Ukrainian forces said was a deliberate violation of the ceasefire. Some 14,000 people have died since the conflict began. |
Ukraine as buffer
That's a relief, really. For now at least. 👍🏿😎
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Keep blowin' hard
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The Russian art of Maskirovka.....
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On another note, maybe Ukraine should've kept their nuclear weapons after the fall of the Soviet Union....
And another note, things like this does not really help when we want to talk Iran and North Korea into dropping their nuclear programmes..... on the contrary.... Maybe it's time to just accept that there are countries out there that will have nuclear weapons, and that's from the fear of being attacked rather than attack, cause we're showing again and again that smaller countries will get a kick to the face if a bigger neighbour will it. |
Originally Posted by usedtobeATC
(Post 11034702)
to jmmoric
Be afraid that they will turn this weapon against you, to harm Russia. |
If Mr. Zelensky is so unpopular he will be replaced.
NATO will intervene in the case of a hot war The real question we should be asking is, WW3 when ? |
Juppie902,
The Budapest agreement was signed by the UK and USA and - to a lesser degree - France, but not NATO. It provides security assurances, such as going to the UNSC if their territorial integrity is threatened, but it does not impose any a legal obligations of military assistance - and hasn’t proved of any great value so far. The Baltic states joined NATO and have allied tripwire forces based on their territory, yet still are considered vulnerable. Ukraine? Don’t hold your breath.... |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11038500)
It provides security assurances, such as going to the UNSC if their territorial integrity is threatened...
https://youtu.be/qPJDPSUevt4 |
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/1...ilitary-518337
Satellite images show new Russian military buildup near Ukraine |
Stirring things up on all fronts - on which, any, or many will Putin move? Or will someone overreact and spark a war?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-conflict.html East and West go toe-to-toe: Russian paratroopers are deployed to Belarus close to Poland border as 'Britain sends soldiers to strengthen Polish defences' after White House warned Putin could invade Ukraine 'imminently' https://www.politico.eu/article/pola...eaders-europe/ European defense leaders warn: Belarus migrant crisis could morph into military crisis https://news.sky.com/story/bosnia-uk...r-war-12464820 Bosnia: UK minister says Russia's hand 'at play' in brewing crisis experts fear could lead to another war |
Norways undersea cables cut.
Undersea sensors off the coast of northern Norway that are able to collect data about passing submarines, among other things, have been knocked out, the country’s state-operated Institute of Marine Research, or IMR, has revealed. The cause of the damage is unknown, but the cables linking the sensor nodes to control stations ashore are said to have been cut and then disappeared. This has raised suspicions about deliberate sabotage, possibly carried out by the Russian government, which definitely has the means to do so. The IMR, one of the biggest marine research institutes in Europe, described “extensive damage” to the outer areas of the Lofoten-Vesterålen (LoVe) Ocean Observatory, putting the system offline. LoVe, which was only declared fully operational in August 2020, consists of a network of underwater cables and sensors located on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, an area of strategic interest for both Norway and Russia. |
https://www.politico.eu/article/brit...der-migration/
10 British troops deployed to support Poland on Belarus borderThe troops will repair or fortify fencing rather than help police the border.Belarus Poland border length 250 miles, they’re going to be busy. |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11141652)
https://www.politico.eu/article/brit...der-migration/
So an Officer and SNCO in charge, that leaves eight bods, of that two normally stand watching, one will be elsewhere, so that’s four putting up fencing… Belarus Poland border length 250 miles, they’re going to be busy. |
Humour obviously isn’t your strong point, the cutting of the undersea detection cables is the frightening post, it allows Russian subs the possibility of slipping past early detection, and as far as I know it’s not been done before which seriously ramps up the tension..
maybe I’m getting old but do dickheads like Putin not realise that spending their remaining life trapped in an underground box eating the same crap day in day out without seeing the sun nor feeling the wind and rain on their faces surrounded be a few people that could rapidly become annoying is no life at all. Topped off by knowing if they ever could come back above ground there would be **** all left, all the power, wealth and riches that come from that in the world means nothing if you cannot enjoy them, and that goes for both sides. |
An RAF RC-135 has been intercepted by Russian aircraft off Crimea.
At least that would indicate someone is listening to what the Russians are up to. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...d-mid-25435015 |
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