Global Hawk sniffing around the east of Ukraine as we speak.

IG

Lieutenant General Ben Hodges - I've heard him speak - very very impressive. Not your gung-ho kill everything type but measured, very thoughtful and crystal clear

Definitely a man to listen to

I looked into the Crimean Tatar issue and yeah the evidence is damning...

From the Human Rights Watch: "crimea-persecution-crimean-tatars-intensifies"

Since 2015 a grand total of 26 Tatars have been convicted and jailed. They are all part of a group, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, that has been designated as a terrorist group in Russia, Germany and several others.

Even by the HRW's own words these people have broken the law.

Not really mass persecution, is it?

It is great to see that Ukraine cares so much for the oppressed people in Crimea that they even deny them water... If they really wanted to win the minds and hearts of the people, they should surely give them the water.

As for Russia attacking Ukraine, it seems the world thinks that the Russian government and military are stupid or insane. Russian citizens will not stand for such a thing and the government will lose all popularity very rapidly.

According to historical data, Hitler was also impressive during his public speeches. Look where it got the world.

How long do you think the Turkish/Qatar funded Syrian mercenaries will stay in country if they manage to provoke a war ?
They have been trying for almost five years to get the party started . Maybe Someone will fund another private enterprise to exterminate the agent provocateurs before the instability spreads to the Capital.

Aegis8,

I realise you are supposed to try and plant false information - but you’ve got to do better than that. From the HRW site.....

https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/02/...crimean-tatars

Crimean Tatars, a Muslim ethnic minority indigenous to the peninsula, have been targets of persecution since Russia began occupying the region in 2014. The recent arrests were the largest number in a single week for the last few years.....

Since Russia seized and began occupying the peninsula in 2014, Crimean Tatars have been disproportionately affected by law enforcement action. From January 2017 through August 2018, 90 out of a documented 102 property searches or raids in Crimea affected Crimean Tatars, according to the United Nations.

In 2016, a Russian Supreme Court order forced the Mejlis, the elected self-governing body of the Crimean Tatars, to disband. Crimean Tatars have also been victims of enforced disappearances and arbitrary arrests and prosecution.

Refat Chubarov, chairman of the now-disbanded Mejlis, said of the Russians: “With such mass arrests, they send a very clear signal to Crimean Tatars: if you don’t like it, leave.”

Wrt to the question posed in the title of this thread... Doesn't Putin often send loads of military to the Ukraine border? Isn't he just having his usual flex?

There you have it wrong. I post my own opinions and where I post info, I try to make sure it is true.

I missed a more recent article, my mistake, which does not really paint a worse picture, with the new number of arrests. it would bring the total of arrested Tatars up to what 50 - 60 in 5 years. Or did I miss yet another article/number somewhere? The law is clear: if you associate or identify as being part of that group, you can and will be investigated and arrested. Which part is wrong there?

As for the rest of the info there, it once again reads like the usual Russia bad - US good, China bad -US good. Hype the situation and control the story that gets to the western MSM consumers. Good example is Navalny, stated by the west to be the main opposition figure. He is not, the Communist party is and he had less than 2% support country wide.

So I do not believe that there is such a huge problem there with the Tatars, there is a problem with a certain segment and the rest of the Tatars and Crimeans are living without problems.

@Aegis8 : am just a reader here, find the discussion fascinating as it has the point of view of both sides and in a civilized manner. Please continue even if you are in the minority here. One question I have however is when you state : Do you have data to back this up.? what we see here in western media , especially BBC and CNN , is that Navalny has huge support, especially among young people and can organize large demonstrations in many different Russian cities etc.., is this all staged ?

Never underestimate ethnic Ukrainians hatred for the Russians is all I can add.

Lived there for a number of years (Kiev and Odessa) and I've seen perfectly normal boys and girls turn into rabid maniacs almost frothing at the mouth when the subject turned to Russia, the transition would genuinely shock you. And this was just before the recent troubles.

Although I suspect many Russians can understand quite a bit of Ukrainian (I speak Russian and can understand without too much difficulty, and if I can as a non-native speaker of Russian, they can) it always amuses me when Russian TV always subtitles them, and my Russian colleagues swear they understand zilch.

Russia is successful much of the time I believe because they always play the long game, something seemingly absent in the West.

flash

I am led to believe that many ukrainians speak russian because it's easier than ukrainian and is or was widely taught in schools, so it's very common for people to have knowledge of it, regardless of your ethnicity/country of origin/religion/etc.

Regularly speaking russian does not necessarily mean a person wants to identify as a russian.

ATC Watcher I will get back to you with factual data.
In the mean time, I will say this: Moscow has a population of several million: google says 12,593,000. His protests gather several thousand only, even if you would say 50000* were present, it is a very small percentage, around 0.4%.

*Disclaimer exact figures may vary.

I believe the current President of the Ukraine is a native Russian speaker - and as for "threatening pogroms" his family are also jewish....................

ATC Watcher Here is the data:
From google:
Currently represented in the State Duma

• United Russia (340)
• Communist Party (42)
• Liberal Democratic Party (40)
• A Just Russia (23)
• Civic Platform (1)

No Navalny there.

The last regional elections were in 2020 and the opposition parties made some gains against the main party in Russia.

Of note is " Opposition leader Alexei Navalny called on opposition voters to use "Smart Voting" by voting for candidates most likely to win against United Russia." Which worked, as several seats were won by these independents. It is now difficult to asses his actual support percentage, based on the 2020 election results, 3 independents became governors. As far as I can tell, he was not running for anything in that election, I may be wrong, I did not see his name anywhere as a candidate.

What will be telling are the upcoming elections.

Numbers at protests:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Russian_protests

Try and figure out the actual numbers present after reading the wiki!

In Krasnodar, 5,000–7,000 Krasnodar out of a population: 932629 (wikipedia), so less than 1% This is in my region, that is why I mention it.

I will also mention that his labeling a World War 2 veteran, a traitor, has cost him support. No matter who they support politically, people respect the veterans here.

As to western MSM, it is hyped and inflated, but this is not a new tactic.
I hope I have managed to answer your question.

Thanks for trying at least . You mentioned initially less than 2% support , that would be visible in votes, not necessarily in people taking up to the streets , especially when the demonstrations has been banned by the authorities and police repression seems to be not that soft if one can see the television images .. But as you said : What will be telling are the upcoming elections. So let's wait for those and see what his real percentage will be .
In any case thanks again for your input. and insight of the views in Russia. Much appreciated.

We'll have to wait a bit on that, he can't run in the election, as he is serving time for his fraud conviction. So the only telling fact would be support for the candidates that he/his group have said to support.
I have seen worse police repression in western countries, to be honest. There is a simple process to follow when you want to hold mass events. By law, authorities cannot deny you, without providing alternatives. There are prohibited locations, mentioned in this process. So you will be denied here, of course. Unfortunately, Navalny has almost never followed this procedure and thus always runs foul of the authorities. Makes for good TV! Same with the last round of protests.

Anyway thread drifting here. Feel free to PM me if you have other questions.

The Duma? A Potemkin Parliament of yes men.

Any real opposition is arrested and convicted of an offence in order to prevent them running or disbarred from election by other means.

Aegis8: you really can't take any indication of ones popularity based on protest figures nor compare the protest figures directly with total population.

A: 23,2% of Russian population are under 19 years old. Also it is highly unlikely that minors would represent any significant volume in the protest, and it also means that this 23% must be deducted from the total population when looking at voters. eg Moscow with 12,5M inhabitants leaves you with 9,5M adults.

B: the median age of protesters were 31( SOURCE ). As Russias median age in total is 39 (and much higher when deducting the minors unlikely to take part in any protests), leaves you with heavy bias amongst young people in russia favoring Navalnyi.

C: 18-44 year olds represent 34% of total population (eg moscow then 4,25M). Navalnyis support is at its highest in this age group. So if you take that 50000, correct it by, say 10% to leave older and younger out, leaves you with 45000 people. Which in essence means that roughly 10% of the age group participated. I consider that pretty significant as this is the biggest age group in Russia, mobilizing 10% of the people on the streets.

D: there is never, ever a full 100% participation in rallies/protests/whatever. It is always the minority that participates. Even if we would be talking about 10% of the supporters pariticipating (which would be very high), there would be other 450000 silent supporters. That would make a very high percentage in votes amongst adults.

E: Demographics is one thing, but the leader(s) of Russia are tangling to power and somehow people not aligning with Putin seem to have accidents and/or end in jail. Not only the poisoning of Navalnyi, but remembering Litvinenko, the Skripalis, especially Viktor Yushchenko (suddenly got poisoned while running for Ukrainian presidency against Putins favorite), Politkovskaya, Vladimir Kara-Murza, Boris Nemtsov... all have met their fate in strange circumstances. This means that one would not participate in these types of rallies very easily, still enhancing the fact that the support for Navalnyi is greater than in your calculations.

F: If Navalnyi wouldn't be of any concern to Putin, why on earth would there be poisonings with a very rare poison by FSB staff? Fear of losing power has been the biggest driver for Putin during his entire leadership. Need to win election: go to Chechnya. Got someone you don't like in charge of ex-soviet countries: go to Georgia. Figures going down again: take Crimea. Someone challenging you: go Novichok (or any other military grade poison of your choice). Business world getting too much power? charge them with fraud/tax evasion/something else and send them to jail. Running out of presidential seasons? no problem, change positions with your muppet (Medvedev) for one season and run a constitutional change to start counting your seasons from zero. The more government denies it all, the more one can be assured that Navalnyi is concidered a threat by the authorities.

Politico Brussels Playbook

Either U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken loves locked-down Brussels Town even more than Brad Pitt, or something’s up. America’s Francophone foreign minister touches down today in the European capital for the second time in just a few weeks, amid reports Russian forces are amassing along the Ukrainian border.....

With the U.S. government reporting that tens of thousands of Russian troops are pushing up on the Ukrainian border, Blinken will be joined in Brussels today by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Will he meet Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who will be in town for a meeting at NATO?

“The secretary should have an opportunity to see him perhaps later in Brussels,” said Department of State European and Eurasian Affairs Acting Assistant Secretary Philip Reeker in a press briefing ahead of the trip. The aim is de-escalation, but if Russia acts aggressively, “there will be consequences,” he said without elaborating further......

Some diplomats were surprised to see Blinken heading back into town after his visit last month, but Reeker stressed the reason for the visit was simply coordination..... “You cannot consult and coordinate enough in diplomacy,” Reeker insisted.

What could possibly go wrong? Oh, just about everything, as Sarah Lain, a Kyiv-based associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), lays out in this op-ed.

“There is a fine line between deterrence and what is interpreted as offensive action,” Lain writes. “Everyone is watching what Russia might do, without much of a plan as to what the response would be, should it escalate significantly. This also adds to the unpredictability.”...

Beamr Good points a to c, well presented.
D is an assumption and the upcoming elections will give better view on this.

E and F are another story altogether. My first reactions are: years of hollywood indoctrination have worked: all soviets/Russians are stupid and fools. And common sense has left the planet!

I will touch on the ones I know.

Nemtsov: shot near the Kremlin, really stupid if it was FSB, but perfect for MSM/the West. Politically he had no more power and was much more valuable to the west dead than alive.

Skripals:
Why kill him, years after he went over to the west? He has no current sensitive knowledge. Why kill his daughter as well? She lived in Russia at that time.
Why use an intricate why to kill him when a simple knife in the ribs would do? There was/is a big surge in knife related attacks in UK during that time. A military grade poison, deadlier than VX, yet they survived. Again so stupid of the FSB, but perfect for MSM/the West.

Navalny: The darling of the west, with all eyes on him, yet they try to kill him. Again a military grade poison, deadlier than VX and he is still alive. Where was it in/on the bottle or in his underpants? Instead of just hiring some thugs to off him and dump his body somewhere. So stupid of the FSB. Nobody else became sick, from this deadly poison either. Then to add to the foolishness, they let him out of the country to be treated in Germany. Now that was dumb, hey? MSM/the West had a field day with this one.

People prefer not to attend unsanctioned protests/rallies, as they can get arrested. Russia is much freer than you make out.

F: Poisonings covered.
Chechnya: response to a large terror attack. The west portray it as a false flag event.
Georgia: if you are talking about 2008, then that was Medvedev and Georgia started the shooting war, Russia finished it. Check the EU commission findings.
Crimea: with the maidan happening so close to home, he would have won the election without a problem. Crimea was a direct response to the geopolitical upheaval of the time.

Over the past few years bribery and corruption have been steadily weeded out, not stopped yet. So if you are guilty you will pay.

Constitutional changes were aimed at enshrining laws regarding the people of Russia into the constitution. Secondly the powers of the president were reduced and handed to the Duma. These are all forgotten and the only one everyone mentions is the term changes. So Mr Putin has been the president for 16 years, Merkel has been chancellor for nearly 16 years, so where is the problem here?

The final question to ask is: who does this all benefit? Not Russia that is for sure. Remember most Russians are not stupid and this is not a hollywood movie! I have my doubts though, about the ones that try to kill me on the roads daily!

How about the guy that got shot in the middle of Berlin by somebody who entered with some government issued fake name russian passport?
https://www.dw.com/en/georgians-deat...eve/a-53860911

Regarding D: no we will not, as Navalnyi is conveniently in jail.

No one said all the Russians are stupid nor fools. The same applies to former soviet citizens. It would be against common sense to claim otherwise. It would be as stupid as stating all the US citizens are cowboys. Or UK citizens are earls and duchesses.


Using something that is obvious to all parties makes a statement, mess with us and you will have it. A random stabbing/shooting etc leaves questions but the abovementioned way gives a striking hint to anyone with the idea to oppose. It isn't about the west. Putin couldn't care less. It is about domestic politics he is worried about. No one is going to overthrow him from outside.

Regarding participation in rallies: you just confirmed what I stated earlier about comparing protesters numbers to real voters/total population. Hence 50k people in the streets of Moscow is a BIG thing. And Putin knows that. And wants to get rid of anyone capable of gathering these masses.

Chechnya: even the Moscow building bombers weren't all chechnyans, What if it was done by FSB to boost a war to make Putin look great? Supportive elements are, and the Sugar Sack incident doesn't really clear the image, either. And Litvinenko (ex FSB/KGB) was murdered for telling this story.
Georgia: come on, Medvedev was a mere puppet with Putin pulling the strings. They really wanted the world to think that Medvedev would've been a strong leader making independent decisions. What on earth was Russia doing there in the first place and why did Russia then begin an attack war towards Gor and Tbilisi if it was merely a peace keeping action in Abkhazia and South Ossetia? Putin wanted to get rid of Saakasvili.
Crimea: Maidan protests were in February 2014, and at that time Putins approval ratings had been between 60-69% for over a year (comparing the approval ratings earlier being above 70% until 2011). Crimean annexation was in the turn of March 2014, and 24th of March the approval rating had peaked to 80%. Annexation of a part of a sovereign foreign country was undoubtedly boosting nationalist feelings within Russia and boosting Putins approval rating.

The difference in between Merkel and Putin is, that Merkel has been the chancellor without changing the legislation for her benefit and through open elections. It is quite a difference.
As stated before, Russian are not stupid as US citizens are not cowboys. But it does benefit the ones wanting to build up a New Russian Empire for their ruling.

I’d be amused if we could get 2 ‘disseminators’ debating with each other.

It’s actually a pretty sad state of affairs that the Shenanigans of Stalin MkII and Mao MKII are killing and will continue to kill millions of their own, to protect their egos and their Chronies stolen wealth.

In all honesty, the Russian people are good people, the Chinese can be great fun, we all (generally) like beer, we all laugh. I propose a BBQ where each nation has to do a pantomime taking the Mickey out of their own leaders. Bring the buggers down to our level, then we can go back home with some great memories about how we laughed about how sociopathic, ignorant and egotistical our “elected” “leaders” and their chronies are.

It’s sad that the expansionist (disguised self protection from internal uprisings) focus of a couple of nutters is going to result in millions of deaths.

I did hear from a Russian Military colleague that if things were to escalate we'd see much activity in Tiraspol beforehand (stuff flying in), forgive my lack of knowledge but would this be called a pincer movement? I doubt though this would happen.. it would imply a total invasion.

Ukraine as buffer
 

A colleague, who had grown up and been educated (very well as a PhD scientist) in E Germany, told me Russia viewed Ukrsine and many former satellites as a buffer against invasion (by Germany).
Whilst he accepted Europe invading Russia a third time would never happen, the fear is deeply ingrained in the Russian psyche.
So ex-satellites joining NATO only increases that imagined fear. He asked how the US would feel if Russia ignored the Monroe doctrine, built up the militaries of all the Central American states, including Mexico. The Cuban missile crisis notwithstanding, I think the point is a good one. If anything, Cuba demonstrated how sensitive the US was to neighbors undet Soviet influence.
If the Ukraine stops begging to join NATO or have a NATO build-up in response to the Russian build-up, it's possible the Russian forces would go home.
Of course, I am no expert and trusting Russia may be naive, but his logic did make sense, to me at least.

@skydivernigel : I concur with your statements . I have been a few times professionally to Russia , the first time when it was still the USSR under Andropov ( who still emembers him ?) and when we in the West were so afraid of a Warsaw pact invasion (interesting concept the Warsaw pact for those old enough to remember) following the Prague Spring crush down . etc..
A few things struck me when discovering the real Russians was their absolute belief that we were going to invade them again .When we told them it was the other way around, they just laughed and replied : with what ? . So much for the propaganda from both sides.
Another thing we forget is that Russia has been invaded twice in recent history and defeated both invasion's at a huge human cost ( and the help of winter) and US and UK were never invaded . The psyche is different .

Having been around the globe a little since discussing ATC related matters with colleagues from those places, one can see that double standards exists from all sides . Ukraine and NATO are good examples. A large border separate Ukraine and Russia and Russia cannot accept to have US troops stationed at its borders, the same that US would not accept Russian troops at their border with in Canada or Mexico.
That is a fact , and last, as far as "democracy and dictatorships " it is amazing , if it was not tragic, to see that US politics today , whether under Trump or Biden, struggle with massive illegal immigration at their Southern border caused only by their continuous own support to violent anti democratic regimes in Central America.
The world is a mess, yes, but it always had been no ?

Wow. He might have been an efficient commander (although I don’t think he has seen any actual combat engagement) but I wouldn't let him anywhere near any kind a power position. His recent comments about how WWII was fought are nothing short of disgusting. His gung-ho approach to antagonise Russia is also quite worrying. I'd really like to see him re-enlist for front line cannon fodder service.

Agreed,
the US would take action pretty quick if a Central American country ot Carribbean island became a Russian satellite, in fact it is doing that economically now to Venezuela, the west should not have encouraged Ukraine to change allegiances. They should have remained in the Russian sphere of influence, it’s not fair on the Ukrainian people but you cannot please all the people all the time and it is a lot better than a major confrontation.

You could make the same case concerning Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Then there’s the rest of Georgia to the south. As well as Ukraine let’s add Moldova because of Transdnistra.

You could then suggest Poland fir a land corridor to Kaliningrad...

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me....

Careful
 

There are some utter arses still within the military that answer posts in the Express or Daily Mail; stupidly answering to Russian trolls.
The higher the rank, the more stupid you people are.. not everyone on here is HIS, but if you don’t know how they work then just shut up.

Yours and Nigel’s post ignores the former satellites right of determination wrt allies. Let the Russians hold an opinion and paranoia. It complements their neighbors concerns.

Exactly. There's a reason why many of the former soviet countries prefer the NATO membership. Ukraine is a perfect sample. No one wants little green men in their backyard.

Agreed - its counter -productive. The USSR always treat the Finns differently through the Cold War. They left them alone but made it pretty clear they weren't to join NATO - it worked quite well on both sides - Russia retained their buffer and the Finns kept their western ways without any paranoia about the USSR "taking over" and profited as a conduit for two way trade

The USSR is long gone. Independent countries decide for themselves.

Guys, I know I am not in my natural habitat in this military forum so will not prolong this discussion too long anymore. just when one mention the right of self determination , and right to determine its allies, without looking at its consequences it is extremely simplistic. The right of self determination with its own " freedom fighters" , always labeled terrorists by the other side, has probably caused more deaths and misery since WW2 than the few conventional wars during the same period. . Just ask the Kurds for instance.

To come back to this tread, I am neither pro Russian nor pro Ukrainian, I have no horse in this race, just the impression of having seen the movie already before .

Or the Chechens, Tartars or Ughurs.

China and Russia are always fiercely defensive of the rights of countries to do as they wish within their own borders, which they regard as purely internal affairs and brook no interference from other nations.

The problem comes when they perceive some historic right to a “sphere of influence “ from the USSR and the authority to act in the same way within their neighbours territory.

Actually, it wasn't that simple. The 1961 note crisis was a good example. There was always the possibility of invasion, and that threat was used by soviets to influence the internal politics.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Note_Crisis

The way I see it, nothing has changed, ie Georgia, Ukraine.

Thats the way it should be with Ukraine, be neutral, friendly with both influences and recognize the realities and limitations of your position

Ukraine as buffer
 

A good point, I agree. Not sure how to square the right to self determination with Russian anxiety of history. Ukraine is the 'land-sea' though, that has to be crossed to get to Moscow. And whose logistics scuppered Napoleon and Hitler. I suspect the deafening silence (about the build up on Ukrainian borders) from the West, and reluctance to bring Ukraine into the NATO fold, is acknowledgement that Western military intervention could rapidly escalate into full blown war. Whilst SD is a right, and many ex Soviet bloc countries have indeed joined NATO, I think it behoves the Ukraine - and NATO countries - to not poke the bear...

PS had no idea my post here would generate so much comment, had no intent to hijack the thread.