Nutloose, you’ve lost a decade. See my post #403 above…

I still cannot believe in this age we are about to stand by and let this happen again as we did at the beginning of the Cold War.

And we're worrying about omicron?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/r...ions-k82hw50rz

Russia wants ‘urgent’ answer to demands over Nato withdrawal amid Ukraine tensions

The Kremlin has threatened an escalation of tensions with western countries if Nato does not meet its demand to withdraw forces from member states in eastern and central Europe, with Russian state media warning viewers that the two powers could go to war.

“Russia has placed the US in a zugzwang,” a presenter on the Rossiya 1 channel said, referring to the chess term that means whatever move a player makes, it will be to their disadvantage.

“The United States must sign off on its hegemony; its hegemony is over. Either they step back voluntarily or we’ll make them do it by force. And Russia makes no guarantees about the survival of Ukraine, especially as a sovereign state. Maybe we really are on the eve of war with Nato.”

Russia issued proposals on “security guarantees” for Moscow last week that also called on Nato to halt its eastward expansion into eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, including Ukraine.

The White House said it would discuss the Russian proposals with its European allies but also emphasised that Moscow could not be allowed to interfere in the foreign policy decisions of sovereign states. The Kremlin said today that it had yet to receive a “substantive” reply from Nato.

Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said that any delay in negotiations would “fuel” tensions that have spiralled in recent months over a Russian military build-up near Ukraine’s eastern borders…..

“We need this [answer] urgently,” Ryabkov, 61, said. “The situation is very difficult, very acute, and there is the tendency towards further complications.”….

Subtle hint to Russia?

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/amer...rine-scotland/

The Russian people are being prepared for war. Here's an article from Pravda:
"Moment of truth: Russia finally threatens NATO with a military response"
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...5-russia_nato/

Also, Russia is ready to deploy nukes to Belarus.
"Russia confirms readiness to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus"
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...larus_nuclear/

The further this goes, the less likely Putin will be able to back off.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/...es-drop-a75881

Russia Cuts Gas Supplies to Europe as Temperatures Drop

Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom slashed its gas supplies to Europe over the weekend, sending prices surging as the continent prepares for a week of sub-zero temperatures.

Shipments through the Yamal pipeline — which runs through Belarus and Poland to Germany — were at their lowest for at least a month over the weekend, Interfax reported, citing market data. Daily shipments fell from 27 million cubic meters (mcm) Friday to 5.2 mcm and 4.7 mcm on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Gazprom also booked only minimal additional capacity on the transit route Monday — 3.8 mcm — worrying markets as gas prices rose across Europe once more…..

The Yamal pipeline operates at a full capacity of 89 mcm per day, meaning flows were operating at only 4% of capacity Monday…..

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-def...ussia-pay.html

What would happen to Russia should it decide to launch a full-scale war with Ukraine?

….According to Valerii Kravchenko, an expert with the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Moscow sees that the "window of opportunity" is closing – Ukraine may soon “break away” completely. This forces Russia to act hastily.

Kravchenko suggests that Putin's plan may be to create an "alternative Ukraine" – a proxy that would enter into an alliance with Belarus and Russia.

Valentyn Badrak, chief of the Center for Army Research, Conversion and Disarmament, believes Putin's only chance of not losing Ukraine is to launch a blitzkrieg immediately.

"Putin is well aware that a strong but non-fatal blow would mean death for the one who inflicted it. Therefore, it is either blitzkrieg or total failure. Russia is incapable of a protracted war at the moment,” said Badrak.

"Let's allow everyone who doesn't love us to just go"

Thus, the hypothetical price that Russia could pay for launching a war against Ukraine in the event of a blitzkrieg failure is the complete collapse of Russia itself.

But Russia, as it turned out, could face collapse even without this war with Ukraine.

On December 9, during a meeting of the Human Rights Council, Putin unexpectedly acknowledged the fragility of the Russian Federation. He reacted really nervously to the address by film director Alexander Sokurov.

The latter said, in particular, that in the national republics people “increasingly dislike” ethnic Russians and “want to say goodbye” to them. And how young people in the North Caucasus claim that in the event of a war between Russia and NATO, they will not fight for Russia. He also spoke of the approach of the "Islamic Revolution" in Russia.

"Let's allow everyone who does’t want to live in one country with us to just go," said the director.

In response, Putin said that "NATO wants to turn us into Muscovy", asked "not to call trouble," suddenly adding that Russia has "two thousand territorial claims," so it may face a "repeat of Yugoslavia."…..

Strange to look to the West this way.
Wouldn't China be Russia's strategic rival?

That’s an existential choice which Russia has been debating for hundreds of years….

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...in20030328.pdf

https://www.degruyter.com/document/d...420722-013/pdf

They are barking up the wrong tree.

Interesting piece about Russia's choices, ORAC. I too was thinking that Ukraine could soon become too powerful militarily for Russia to take on, resulting in them permanently going their own way. It may be already.

If Russia suffer too heavily it could spell all kinds of trouble for them domestically.

That's what I was thinking. Ukraine has 250.000 soldiers and a sizeable Land Army with many Tanks and heavy weapons. With 100.000 soldiers attacking, this might not be a walk in the park for the attackers. This is not Georgia. Stingers and Javelins can make life ugly for an invader trying to walk in with tanks and helicopters. A relevant quantity of S-300s will cause attrition on Air assets. Even should Russia win the question is how much of its Army and Airforce will be left afterwards? The following sanction will mean that a re-arming will be close to impossible. An expensive win over Ukraine could be the end of Russia.
And afterwards Russia will have to subsidise a wrecked Ukraine with one third of its own population and will have to permanently keep in check 45 Million people. Considering that they are still today swallowing the costs of the crimea annexion, I have no idea how they fancy to swallow the big chunk.
IMHO the only permanent success they can achieve militarily is MAD and complete extinction of human life on Earth.

Add to the mix a large number of Ukrainian citizens who would take up arms in defence of their nation, plus a sizeable number of Poles who would cross the border to join the fight.

And then NATO's eastern flank will get massively fortified as the West will not let the Baltic states be next.
I am having a hard time myself finding out what the perceived gain for them might lay in?

Trying to take all of the Ukraine with conventional forces seems like an uncharacteristically large miscalculation on Putin's part. They really would be an army of occupation then. I still see him going for an incursion to get a land route to Crimea and calling it quits.

Would it not be more the current style of warfare to try and enact state change in a manner favourable to Putin through covert action?

This could well be his plan, then 're-freeze' the conflict for a few years to let the West's ire fade and its attention to shift elsewhere, as it did after Crimea. Then rinse and repeat, assuming the rump of Ukraine doesn't get too strong in the meantime?

I reckon Putin dreams about 'liberating' Ukraine, Moldova, the Baltics, then striking though Romania to hook up with Serbia, one happy Slavic orthodox union (or more likely not).

Ah yes, Salami Tactics .. as outlined in the early 1980s!


JAS

Is Russia building up an excuse for invasion? This has the distinct odour of the shelling of Mainila in 1939.

Shoigu: Private US Military Firms Preparing Provocations With Chemical Components in Eastern Ukraine

https://sputniknews.com/20211221/sho...091693740.html

Guys, get real!
The Russian Army is a significant force. But it is a gazillion Years away from being able to do this. It is about 10 -15% of the former Warsaw Pact strength regarding conventional Wepaons and troops. Vlad' may dream of this. Hell; I dream of being a Billionaire and needing to work any more and having a private Island some nice place, but seriously!

Is that the one with the hidden ICBM under the retracting swimming pool?

Traceski Island?

Indeed.
Easy to forget how geographically vast and ethnically diverse it is - even today.
This debate was already an intractable problem when the USSR was created.
It barely was a union of 15 independently minded and very separate republics.

But under the beneficent guidance of the former Commissioner for Minorities - one J V Stalin - all learned to sing with one voice.................

Tho oddly he was happy to let the Finns go................... even after WW2

Its noteworthy how unhinged the Russians are sounding now, esp the big man (is he losing it?). Question is, is this their way of warming their population up for a fight, or are the West's steadfast tactics getting to them? On which note, I now the US have come in for some criticism however their push for diplomacy is masterful.

translation = we are going to launch a false flag chemical attack on ukrainian sepratists (or russian troops on 'holiday' then blame it on ukraine and then use that a pretense to invade the country

The US and allies have been recently reminded of the horrors of war, and the cost and waste of waging one with no productive result. Let's stay out of this one and wish the diplomats success.

Peace is about to break out as the Ukraine is now buying Russian gas again delivered through Hungary . I wonder what the Big Guys cut will be ?
Anyone still got shares in Burisma ?

Are we already engaged in a hybrid war?

From today’s Politico…

GAS CRISIS: There is a major non-COVID story going slightly under the radar so far this morning: U.K. wholesale gas prices hit a record of 450p per therm on Wednesday in part because gas flows from Russia have been cut off in recent days. The Guardian’s Rob Davies said Russian gas in a pipeline to Germany has switched direction to flow east for the last two days.

The FT’s Nathalie Thomas, Jim Pickard and Neil Hume splash the story, which a government adviser tells Playbook could even surpass Omicron as the main problem facing the country in the coming weeks.

Sounding the alarm: Nigel Pocklington, boss of green energy firm Good Energy, says: “This is a national crisis. Wholesale gas and power prices have increased to unprecedented levels over the last three weeks, creating an extremely difficult operating environment for every business in the industry.”

EDF Energy said the situation is “critical” and Energy U.K.’s Emma Pinchbeck told the FT Britain is facing “a marketwide crisis.”…

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...l-Records.html

Europe Faces Full Blown Energy Crisis As Gas Prices Smash All Records

gas prices have been zooming for months - generally it's felt that the Russians aren't actually cutting supply but they're not doing a great deal to improve supply either. No evidence of them reneging on contracts or a sudden "accident" interrupting supply.

They benefit either way at these prices. Problem is European utilities were uncertain about covid effects and generally didn't contract enough gas.

Dunno jack **** about the gas dealing. But the one I read said it was more of a they have supplied the amount they were contracted to supply, so they didn't so much as cut it off, they didn't deliver the extra requested by

and add to the mix a large number of eastern Ukrainian citizens who would take up arms in favour of Russia, one hell of a civil war which the Russians might want to intervene in order to “protect” them!

I would have said throttling the gas supply is going to be a one time deal for Russia as the Europe will turn to other sources of energy thus eventually crippling Russia’s main energy revenue.

As for shipping it east to China’s industries as an alternate market, that too could also be fraught with problems as families in the west hit by higher fuel prices tighten their financial belts and reduce the amount of consumer goods purchased out of China.

Now Russian citizens as Putin has issued them all Russian passports. Classic casus belli.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russ.../31234248.html

Whether they want them or not?

On Al Jazeera yesterday a talking head from an American institute reiterated my point that this crisis has been in a large part manufactured to distract the Russia population from the economic travails at home i.e. inflation running at 18%, 40% of them without savings, Nord 2 not looking to be approved anytime soon etc.

Ie blame Russia's woes on the west, well if he did invade their woes would get seriously worse with additional sanctions.

Op Deny Christmas Delayed
 

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to restore a 2020 ceasefire deal in eastern Ukraine, prompting a top official in Kyiv to say that the coming holidays "should be peaceful".

Ukrainian presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak hailed the deal brokered by Europe's OSCE security organisation as a step towards de-escalation.

Good, the wine is in the fridge now.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...raine-analysis

Why Putin is acting like a man who has run out of time

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