https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...plode-23879639

Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into war in days as UK commanders on 'high alert'

The Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into all-out war within days after Moscow amassed close to 100,000 troops at the flashpoint border, it was feared last night.

Senior Ukraine military sources fear Moscow’s war-planners may have wrong-footed Kiev by being far more battle-ready for a major land and sea attack than previously suspected.

Until recently Ukraine’s senior commanders calculated that if Putin orders an attack deep into East Ukraine and elsewhere it was most likely to come in mid-May. But today Putin’s navy piled on further pressure on embattled Kiev by announcing the deployment of a war-fighting fleet towards Ukraine arriving within days.

Last night sources told the Daily Mirror UK senior commanders and Whitehall officials are on “high alert” over the crisis and are monitoring the situation “with growing concern.”......

More than ten heavily-armed Russian warships are now steaming towards the Caspian Sea from the Black Sea, armed with artillery and other weapons to back Putin’s land forces.

Russia’s Defence Ministry announced it was moving more than ten navy vessels, including landing boats and artillery warships to the Black Sea to take part in exercises......

This on the BBC,

Ukraine conflict: Moscow could 'defend' Russia-backed rebels - BBC News

Time for the UK government to re-print the Protect and Survive leaflets from the 1980s?.

@ORAC: this won't end well. ((NotAsAMod) You might want to check your sources more carefully).
1. If true, they are headed away from Ukraine
2. They'll need to travel overland to get there. :} (The Caspian Sea from the Black Sea)

I was just reading that and thought the same.

I know there is a project that allows a sea faring link between the Caspian and Black seas but is it fully capable of allowing warships to pass through? In any case, they’re still steaming away rather than to the Black Sea!

lazy reporting.

They want to use the rivers to connect the two seas, therefore warships will not be capable of using it. Your smaller riverine or littoral class vessels will be able to use it though.

For a great perspective on the current events, search and read the letters/memorandums sent to the US government by the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. This one in particular: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity on Avoiding War in Ukraine.

At least there are some sane voices out there and I hope they will get heard.

I will say again Russia will not attack first, they are not as stupid as hollywood has proclaimed for how many years now.

For what it's worth I have been to Odesa and spend quite a lot of time talking to Russian-speaking Ukranians there. It's a sample-size of 2 really so not representative at all but I think it's interesting because it shows that there is another point of view. Their attitude is that Russia and Ukraine have a lot in common and that it's ridiculous that this situation should have arisen but it's Russia's fault and they should get out. They think Russian speakers in Ukraine are less and less sympathetic to Russia as this bull**** situation goes on. Both of them did military service and there's no question at all whose side they're on.

My own worthless personal opinion is that Ukraine is modernising - these guys work in the IT industry for example and lots of American companies are making good use of them. The west, meaning NATO, will experience a great reverse in it's general fortunes, its respect, the trust other nations have in it etc etc if it lets them slip into the night.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/n...order-by-janes

Russian Ground Troop Units and Iskander ballistic missiles identified at Ukrainian border by Janes

Janes has identified at least fourteen Russian Ground Troop units that have moved or are moving to the Ukrainian area of operations since late March through open-source intelligence.

Janes has identified an influx of Central Military District troops from the 74th and 35th Motorised Brigades, 120th Artillery Brigade and the 6th Tank Regiment, equipped with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and long-range artillery including 2S19 MSTA-S 152 mm self-propelled guns, TOS-1A thermobaric multiple rocket launchers (MRLs), and BM-27 Uragan 220 mm MRLs entering Voronezh by train.

Janes has also identified the deployment of Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems, likely belonging to the 119 Missile Brigade, to Voronezh from the Sverdlovsk region.

A staging area has been established at a training ground south of Voronezh city equipped with P-260T Redut-2US long-range telecommunications complexes and a field hospital. The P-260T Redut-2US is a long-range army-level communications system that is not used at the battalion or brigade level, it is indicative of the scale of the deployment.

Crimea and the neighbouring Krasnodar regions have seen a similar build-up of troops and equipment including BMP-3 IFVs and 2S4 Tyulpan 240 mm self-propelled mortars. This time coming from Southern Military District units stationed hundreds of kilometres away in the southern and western Caucasus.....

While Russia’s intentions are still unclear, this movement stands out as possibly the largest unannounced movement of troops since Russia’s invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2015. Video footage shows trains carrying Russian troops are still heading to the area of operations, with some according to the freight tracking service GdeVagon not scheduled to arrive in Crimea until mid-April.

Current indicators suggest it is unlikely the forces deployed to the border are in an offensive posture. But this could change if Russia continues to move forces to the Ukrainian border.

Janes has identified the movement of army air defence systems into the Voronezh region, which have not been observed with prior movements. While there is a strategic air defence unit based in Crimea, there had been no clear indications that tactical air defence assets were being transported to match the armoured forces that had been deployed prior to this.

Furthermore, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the Black Sea Fleet would be reinforced with 10 landing and artillery vessels from the Caspian Flotilla, as part of the ongoing control check exercises.

This is not a common occurrence and was not even seen during the Southern Military District’s district level exercise Kavkaz-2020 last summer. Additionally, two Black Sea Fleet landing ships are believed to be operating in the Mediterranean Sea and could easily join the Black Sea Fleet....

Article and map in The Times.
Ukraine fears attack as Putin masses tanks close to border

"It claims that any Russian servicemen in east Ukraine are “on vacation”. Someone has retained their sense of humour...

A good read here on how the armed forces are mainly for show and for moving in afterwards, but how Putin will again use Spetznaz for the actual de facto job from the inside, as in the Crimea.

https://www.georgetownjournalofinter...ight-look-like

Seems ironic that Putin seemed to be happy with the status quo in Ukraine when Trump was in power, but almost the instant Joe took power things start to happen.

As I noted before, the tempo of eastbound surveillance flights hasn't really changed over the last few years. We even had a B52 deployment here early last year which flew several missions over Ukrainian territory, one right up to the nominal border with Crimea (using the callsign LeMay...)

Nothing ironic about the Russian reaction to current events in Ukraine. Once Biden was in power, the war like rhetoric from Kiev increased. Their much anticipated spring offensive to retake Donbas. Zelensky signed a decree which defacto declared war on Russia and it is to this fact that Russia is responding.

In addition to this, such a buildup, would hopefully make Kiev think again, about their current misadventure and save countless lives, if war can be avoided.

But should war BE avoided? Russia has invaded a sovereign country. Surely it should be that countries moral obligation to do everything they can to reunite and retake their country?

You can listen to the arguments about how these people are ethnic Russians. But that doesn’t hold water. If they want to be Russian they can move to Russia. Taking the Crimea as a case in point, only 60% of the population were ethnic Russians, and only about 60-70% of those supported annexation so less than half the region wanted this.

On another point, what does the OSCE say about Russian forces in Ukraine? What have they said over the past years?

As far as I recall, their answer was no regular Russian military units were operating there.

Reminds me of Poroshenko, bleating about thousands of Russian tanks operating there. He seemed to not know what such an operation would look like.

The Minsk agreements don't place any requirements on Russia, apart from assuring that the Donbas republics do their part.

War should always be avoided. It is the last resort, when everything else has failed.

I think your percentages are bit off, in the long run, the better check would be to see what the population of Crimea have to say today. After several years back with the Federation.

You mean after several years of the native Tartars being oppressed, persecuted, imprisoned and/or fleeing?

As for no Russian troops being in Ukraine - there are copious proofs of their presence, both as men in grey and as mercenaries as well as their equipment - to mention a certain airliner being shot down just as a particularly callous war crime fir which Putin and his cronies are responsible.

Once again what does OSCE and Minsk agreements say about Russian military in Ukraine?

MSM shouting that some video, shot somewhere shows Russians in Ukraine is not evidence in todays information space. It is information war and he who controls the narrative, controls the "truth".

MH17 falls under the same narrative control. When you include the country, which should be a suspect, in the panel and exclude the country which owns the aircraft in question, then you should think why. How many years after the fact and nothing which will really shed light on the matter has been made public, ie. ATC tapes, CVR etc.

As for the Tartars, I have only seen action taken against them when laws were broken. But in search of the truth, I will have a look this weekend and see what is said about them.

When your country has been occupied by an enemy force, I think you are already at the last resort.

As to your last paragraph. That is setting a dangerous precedent. Legitimacy based on length of occupation.

Aegis - i 'd stay away from MH17 if I was you - the evidence is pretty damning

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/09/e...ntl/index.html

If this goes very badly, and the ruffians win quickly with brutal force, perhaps then those that swear solely by cyber could admit they are most definitely not fit for purpose: the modern day Maginot line being true an embarrassing folly.

Ever wondered why the Russians are not panicking that NATO has been moving eastward so close to Russia ?

If your attack is going well , it is probably an ambush :)

Anyone think it’s Putin just testing Biden’s resolve to see what he is made off? Ramp it up to see the response, which he can then use to access his future moves.

Russia is already under pretty comprehensive US and EU sanctions, so much so that the Russian foreign minister Lavrov noted that they are treated as an enemy.
Consequently one wonders whether they might perhaps act accordingly and reincorporate the Ukraine back into Russia.
I don't think Europe or the US are positioned to prevent it and the performance to date of the Ukrainian military has not been impressive. Perhaps that is why the Ukraine is so eager to be accepted into NATO.

If Russia invades Ukraine - which has been independent for over 30 years - it'll be like the invasion of Afghanistan - a wake up call for the West, massive US rearmament & it'll end in the collapse of the Russian Government (again)

The problem with your argument is that this is not just about ethnic Russians, it is about Russian speaking Ukrainians. They may be ethnic Russian but they are still Ukrainian or were, as they are all deemed terrorists by the Ukrainian government. So to allude to your percentages: in 2014 there were 60% ethnic Russians, 30% odd Ukrainians and the rest made of Tartars and odds and ends. Now the real number to check is that 89% were Russian speaking and it is this Russian speaking component that voted to re-unite, not just the ethnic Russians. Do you really think that Crimea would not be the same as Donbas today, if they had not re-united?

As to the invasion, check how many Ukrainian units, in Crimea, changed sides after the new, unelected government came to power in Ukraine. If only all invasions were so bloodless!

The evidence that is public, is damning yes. It is control of the narrative. If you are happy to assign blame with the current evidence, then that is your choice.

I will wait till all the evidence is public and make an informed decision.

Now that is a good one for the Saturday morning.:D

Pledge to all of those here who are preaching of upholding international laws and protecting sovereign countries integrity: would you please write to your MP's, Prime ministers, Presidents, Kings....whatever and tell them to get Kosovo back to Serbia.
I am so interested to see how that would roll out.

You mean self defence like attacking Finland, Poland and the Baltic countries? Or more recently Chechnya? And even more recently, Ukraine. Yes, Russia DID invade Ukraine. Theres no IF in it.

Afaik, the problem started when the Ukraine government prohibited the use of Russian in Ukrainian schools, a clear signal that the large Russian speaking minority was unwanted.
Perhaps the responsible people should visit Canada, which successfully defused an analogous threat from their francophone Quebec based minority.

This truly is the age of info wars with all this hardcore agitation and propaganda even in this innocent forum. However these phrases sound as stupid as ever and won't win any new sympathies.
Fascinating that they still feel like trying.

Born and raised in Vancouver and I would not say it was successfully defused at all. To this day there is still simmering anger on both sides. Quite a lot of Canadians would be glad to see the back of them.

Simmering anger may be as good as it gets.
It sure is easier to live with than bombs in mail boxes, police squads all over and unending 'security restrictions'.

As I was saying.....

Putin is eyeing up much bigger prize than Donbas conquest in Ukraine says US General

A top US General has argued that Russia's troop buildup on Ukraine's eastern borders is a distraction and that the Kremlin is preparing for a different attack.

Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said in an interview with Espresso TV that Mr Putin has his eyes set on capturing the Black Sea Coast in the south.

The former commander of the United States Army Europe explained: "The Kremlin is interested in establishing full control over the Black Sea coast, including Mariupol, Odessa and Berdyansk.

“All this movement of Russian forces is most likely a diversionary manoeuvre to strike and capture the water canal connecting Crimea to the Dnieper River. And then, it will become a springboard for further capture of the Black Sea coast."

He added that Moscow did not need to make a decisive move in the Donbas at present and preferred to use the simmering conflict as a means to further undermine Kiev.

"The Russians do not need a decisive attack on the Donbas now," he said. "The Donbas is needed to continue destabilization in the region and to inhibit Ukraine's integration with the West. The goal of the Russian Federation is to keep the situation in the region in a state of chaos."

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...blem-for-putin

Crimea’s Water Crisis Is an Impossible Problem for Putin

The problem started when the Ukraine agreed to destroy its nuclear weapon stockpile after assurances fom the UK and the USA that both countries would commit to protecting their borders in case of armed conflict, if the Ukraine had retained their nuclear capability or we had stood by our promises, we wouldn't be having this conversation as Russia would not have dared to invade.

https://www.dispropaganda.com/single...n-exchange-for

So many other agreements have broken , it could easily be a chicken and egg thread .
The good news is Ukraine just blinked . They are backtracking on previous statements made by the stand up comic and calling for dialogues.