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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Old-Duffer 27th Feb 2022 06:11

If, as suggested, the Russians are being thwarted, taking heavy losses and over extending their supply lines (or having them interdicted), this will be where the wounded Russian Bear will be at its most dangerous.

The prospect of something like gas, chemicals or even a Tac-Nuc weapon cannot be ruled out and certainly not from someone with Putin’s mind set.

What would the response be after the deployment of any of the possibilities above? I understand that Assad’s chemical weapons were supposedly ‘taken out’ by air attack but many remained because they had been deployed for use and hence not in any sort of depot. Such dispersal might well have already been made in the current situation.

Perhaps the targeted use of cruise missiles against identified Russian assets might be used but drones could possibly not be used in contested airspace.

I’m sure ppruners have more practical and realistic ideas than me – what are they?

Old Duffer

ORAC 27th Feb 2022 06:12

The effects of shutting Russia out of SWIFT…


….The currency becomes worthless, with none of the normal automatic or policy stabilizers operating. The country is forced into autarky with no foreign trade or borrowing possible. You can still print rubles. But we know what that means. But we need more details to know the limits…..

A bank run. Hyperinflation. Production shut downs. Severe rationing. Widespread unemployment. Mass exodus. It will depend a lot on the value of their exports that they can maintain but even those might come under pressure. It’s hard to conceive of all the possible consequences.…

Beamr 27th Feb 2022 06:14

Those russian troops in those videos seem more like scouts and/or spezsnatz groups than a massive land force penetration.

ORAC 27th Feb 2022 06:34


Those russian troops in those videos seem more like scouts and/or spezsnatz groups than a massive land force penetration.
Various reports have it as an almost accidental “thunder run” breaking 5b rough the defences.

The problem being they seem lost and, in light armoured vehicles, are being separated and picked off. God help them when they run into anyone with a few NLAW…



NutLoose 27th Feb 2022 06:36

one seriously lucky driver


ORAC 27th Feb 2022 06:37


NutLoose 27th Feb 2022 06:57

It looks like the village has turned out to stand in the road and block Russian tanks



NutLoose 27th Feb 2022 07:08


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11191322)


more abandoned vehicles in Kharkov, it appears they haven’t heard of runflats on armoured vehicles lol


Beamr 27th Feb 2022 07:42

Now that the russians are entering urban areas, those urban areas are becoming target rich environments for anyone with a NLAW. Hope those german stocks arrive soon.

SnowFella 27th Feb 2022 07:48

Could well be wrong but don't think they can make runflats for vehicles weighing that much. Had "pseudo" runflats on my truck (4x4 Scania TGB-30) back during my service days but that more or less just amounted to the the rubber being bolted to the rim so it would stay on if the tyre went flat. Each tyre had 4 internal brackets that locked the bead to the rim.
Then again I ran a refuelling rig so a punctured tyre was the least of my problems, general joke was to bring plenty of hotdogs and marshmallows as we were a rolling bbq waiting to happen!

Asturias56 27th Feb 2022 07:53

The question that now raises its ugly head is what the hell the Russians do now. Install a puppet Govt? reabsorb the whole country???

Beamr 27th Feb 2022 07:55


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11191349)
The question that now raises its ugly head is what the hell the Russians do now. Install a puppet Govt? reabsorb the whole country???

they are nowhere near that. Very irrelevant for Putler right now.

ORAC 27th Feb 2022 07:58

I love it - using the disposable bags…


ORAC 27th Feb 2022 08:02


ORAC 27th Feb 2022 08:16

The question being is why haven’t the EU/Eurocontrol closed all European airspace to Russian airlines - and why is Spain allowing them to land!


ORAC 27th Feb 2022 08:28

About that column in Kharkiv….



dead_pan 27th Feb 2022 08:58

Tb2 still in action
​​​​

Just a spotter 27th Feb 2022 09:40

Looks like the Russians are moving TOS-1 into theatre.

From BusinesInsider, 26th Feb 2022


Russian army deploys its TOS-1 heavy flamethrower, capable of vaporizing human bodies, near Ukrainian border, footage shows
https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...22-2?r=US&IR=T

Rumour is that Russian commanders have been told to take Kyiv at all costs, US Senator Marco Rubio (R), Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee sent the following via twitter

27th Feb 2022


#Russian military leaders should think very carefully before following the orders they recently received

#Putin is 2 years shy of the life expectancy of a Russian male
and you will spend the rest of your lives evading an international tribunal for committing his crimes

JAS

Brewster Buffalo 27th Feb 2022 09:53


Originally Posted by Old-Duffer (Post 11191316)
If, as suggested, the Russians are being thwarted, taking heavy losses and over extending their supply lines (or having them interdicted), this will be where the wounded Russian Bear will be at its most dangerous....
Old Duffer

When Putin berates his generals will they explain their failure by blaming the intelligence/arms being supplied by NATO?
I'm admire the Ukrainians for their bravery but dread the casualities they may suffer....

Flyhighfirst 27th Feb 2022 09:55


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11191354)
I love it - using the disposable bags…

https://twitter.com/issaeth/status/1...940709890?s=21

Spread the word to locals. If you see this mark outside a shop don’t use it. Then lace all food products inside with poison.





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