Nutty: getting Russia to join the EU would be a political master stroke, by whomever figures out how to do it.
Mind you, I was also saying that in the late 1990's.

I meant the Ukraine :)

Contrary view to other posters - alas I don't think there is any prospect of Russia giving up any territory gained, assuming they can "freeze" the conflict at a point which suits (a big if, assuming Ukraine keeps on fighting). Any attack on captured territory would therefore be viewed as an attack on Russia itself and would likely be met with major retaliation (nukes).

The question for me is how the populace in the captured cities will likely respond to living under Russian occupation, especially given Russia's economic travails. Major - and widespread - unrest, could place a major drain on its military resources and morale.

I think that this will be protracted, and the longer it continues the worse the outcome will be for Vlad, and of course the Ukrainians. Russia with a crippled economy, degraded and demoralised military will struggle to deal with insurgents. Rumours of him pulling the plug on global internet access if it indeed happens will not go down well with the millennials when they find out.

There is the potential for major civil unrest in his beloved Motherland, and an ensuing coup cannot be discounted. Which ever way this plays out they need to be brought to their knees and kept there for a very long time, with all territories returned to Ukraine.

I am not sure how EU membership works (I assume any one member can veto a prospective member, but I'd need to look that up) but I know for sure that any NATO nation can veto the entrance of a prospective NATO nation. (Granted, there's plenty of back door/smoke filled rooms deal working and incentivizing that goes on).
I was (unfortunately, it turns out) optimistic about "The West" and Russia continuing the thaw that began when the Wall came down. Between the partnership for Peace initiatives, joint ops in Northern Bosnia, and a host of other confidence building measures the beginning steps were made.
The "what-could-have-beens" are legion, but that's water under the bridge.
I'd still hope for a future where Russia is in the EU rather than not, although I have no idea how the folks in Brussels and Europe's capitals would view such a future. Between Brexit and the mess that the currency union has created in places like Greece and Italy, I wonder if the EU has peaked and doesn't know it yet. Time will tell.

If Mariupol turns into Vlad's Stalingrad (which means the Rest of the World keeps feeding Ukraine arms and other materiel) and Kiev stays out of his hands, at some point he hits operational fatigue and sit down to peace talks, and then the lines on the map get drawn again. But he'll keep at least some of what he's taken, for sure in the south. I'll take that to Vegas with a fifty on the line.

That old saw about "possession is nine tenths of the law" comes to mind. I remember how my dad used to describe typical Soviet negotiating positions: "what's mine is mine, what's yours is negotiable". :p

I am still pondering: are those two nuclear plants that they have possession of bargaining chips, or something else?

Hopefully the Ukrainians will not give Russia a moment’s peace while it occupies their homeland. And with the drawn out losses of Russian boys, I hope the Russians don’t give Putin a moment’s rest. I’m beginning to care not a wit what Putin thinks is an act of war or not. What the *&$# do you think Russia is doing in Ukraine? That’s an act of unprovoked, unjustified warfare (AKA murder) and I’m tired of us worrying about what that murderer considers an act of war, because he hasn’t been right yet and we should not allow ourselves to be threatened by his considerations. Mind you, we should be very careful, very deliberate and not for a moment, entertain Putin’s considerations. There are too many dead and displaced Ukrainians for that and the threat of him doing the same to neighboring countries is just not acceptable.

I’m glad for the all the aid that the US, NATO and EU are giving Ukraine and hope the flow never ends until all Russian forces have vacated every square inch of Ukraine.

Given that Russia is on the UN Security Council, and no UNSC resolution will pass to that effect, I honestly don't see him withdrawing from the two areas (Luchansk and Donetsk) whose declaration was the trigger (obviously planned ahead of time) for Russian tanks to roll.
Don't bet the rent money on that, is what I am suggesting.

Some background to the disputed areas

https://jordanrussiacenter.org/news/.../#.YiZwOy-nwgo

The UN has mechanisms to remove members. Hopefully these are being explored.

Both in the UN and cough, cough, his Country…

The lower echelon Russian leadership will have the clearest view of how this assault is going at battlefronts and on the homefront. They are not that stupid that they will allow this one-man-folly to destroy the Motherland.

Give it a few more days and we will learn of the sad death of the "hero" Putin, who finally succumbed to the illness that had affected his judgement.
General Shotisblokov appointed temporary command and orders a complete cessation of hostilities as the Motherland enters a period of mourning. They will then arrange "peace talks" and graduated withdrawal.
There will be some give and take, and some assurances and sanctions slowly and cautiously lifted.

Other than all out MAD, I see this as a less frightening way out.

We can only hope.

Another dead Major General

Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, who took part in the second Chechen war, the war in Syria and the annexation of Crimea, was killed in battles near Kharkiv.

It must be good for promotion, though that might be a bad thing in Russia.

One should feel sad at the death of another human being, but I don’t, people that target women, children and male civilians lost the right in my eyes to call themselves human beings.

There's a heck of a lot of high ranking Russian commanders getting shot. I wonder if it happens within 30 minutes of their performance review ?

I hope so too. It could just happen that way. I am worried by the big picture and outlook given by Sir John Sawer ex M16 Chief to the Oxford Union debate last week (youtube).
Oodles of exposure and experience to a young intelligent audience. Worth a peek.
David Starkey explains why 'Putin has a stranglehold on the west thanks to Merkel' (youtube). He has harsh words to say, but I think that he is right.

I believe that is a different Gerasimov that got whacked

What, two of them with a silly name?

There is currently a consensus ( not all agree ) that the EU has grown quickly and can't take on new members at the moment. Since however it normally takes about 10 years to accede, you'll understand that that gives lots of leeway to fudge matters Technical matters like the Euro membership are also completely up in the air as Covid has exploded all the financial limits ( which were being exceeded anyway ) The EU is going to have to re-draw a lot of its basic rules when ( when's that ? ) there will be some kind of normality;n I also think that the zenith for the EU has just passed, especially with the new German government and their wish to spend lots more money with Macron, although the events and reactions in Germany over the last two weeks, might give me pause for thought on that.

Be careful what you wish for. World War Two was started in Versailles. Yes, the power structure needs to be removed, along with any ideas that Russia owns nothing more than its own borders. However, we need to bring the ordinary people of Russia onside. It will take time, and the lead will probably be taken by the young. They want freedom, which is something most of them have never known in their lifetimes. It's up to us to give them a chance.

Sadly yes.

Speculation is that the Dead one is related, maybe a nephew.

The Gerasimov of ''doctrine'' fame, is the head honcho Armed forces wise.