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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Lonewolf_50 10th Aug 2022 15:10


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11275849)
Your weekly reminder that production of MGM-140 ATACMS ended 15-yrs ago. Only 3,700 ever manufactured. Present inventory unk.
Its replacement, the "Precision Strike Missile," due to saturation levels of good idea fairies won't achieve IOC not until next year.

According to this info from LM, they made some more in 2017. Their story is that they've made 3800, and that 600 have been successfully fired.
(Mostly in Desert Storm and OIF, I suspect)
Your point on the zero sum inventory problem is agreed.

NutLoose 10th Aug 2022 15:20

Possibly up to 60 pilots killed in the raid, though not confirmed.


dead_pan 10th Aug 2022 15:25


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11276021)
SOF?

classic signature of the sonic boom arriving after the impact of a supersonic missile (2 explosions, 2 missiles), which also eliminates the Neptune ASM theory…

For those who (like me) were doubtful about this, I found the following 'best of' video of Spacex sonic booms:


Pretty conclusive I'd say

NutLoose 10th Aug 2022 15:43

Dead pan, read 7808 as how you can work out where it was launched from and when and indeed its speed by using magnetic anomaly signatures

dead_pan 10th Aug 2022 16:24


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11276072)
Dead pan, read 7808 as how you can work out where it was launched from and when and indeed its speed by using magnetic anomaly signatures

I did - who knew you could do this? There's me thinking MAD was only used for detecting submarines...

ORAC 10th Aug 2022 16:46

So the missile hit on the barrack block wasn’t an error but another DH on a target - perhaps the most important one of all….

Wokkafans 10th Aug 2022 16:48

That's one hell of a bait catapult.


NutLoose 10th Aug 2022 17:09

Crikey, that was close, he was just out of range of the shrapnel.

dead_pan 10th Aug 2022 17:13


Originally Posted by Wokkafans (Post 11276112)
That's one hell of a bait catapult.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status...LAD505FrlYVuAQ

Absolutely ruined the fishing for the next couple of hours.

Tartiflette Fan 10th Aug 2022 18:07


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11276038)
What, like this? ORAC.. mach 2.5 missiles, a fascinating read through the thread on how it's worked out and from where.
..

I don't fully understand that plot, but it seems to show that something (missile flight ? ) took either 29 mins or 14 mins to fly 190 km which is 380 or 760 kph , but certainly not Mach 2.5.( 3 000 kph )

I have clearly gone awry - can you help ?

NutLoose 10th Aug 2022 18:25

It went awfully high then came back down, not just straight across. I’ve copied the replies you would have needed to open to understand the witchcraft behind it.


14h
Replying to
@rrichcord
and
@glosmeusec
f missiles were the cause then they were pretty slow. (200.000mt/30minutes/)/60 =111mt/sec /343= aprox **match 0.323 **. That absolutely sub sonic. Maybe my bicycle can travel faster than that. Why werent they intercepted by russia ? no air defenses then ?
2
1https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...vR7FOg_x96.jpg
Anton Bohucek
@a_bohucek
·
12h
They must have been travelling in a high arc, so the distance travelled is actually much longer than the straight line distance between the presumed launch site and the arrival area.
3
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eduardo
@ode4370
·
12h
I see now. Hmm that could indeed be the reason. Sorry for my error. I am still thinking cause Physics is not exactly my expertise area. I still remember some formulas though. tks.
3https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...jTwRgT_x96.jpg
Sahara
@LMR_Sahara
·
13h
Replying to
@rrichcord
and
@glosmeusec
Any idea on what missile this suggests?
1
6https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...LTQ4zP_x96.jpg
Richard Cordaro
@rrichcord
·
13h
Unfortunately there is not enough information in the magnetic anomaly to suggest a missile type. Sharp spikes in the signature can give an indication of speed. Hypersonic missiles (>=Mach 5) show a few spikes. This missile showed only one spike so Mach 1 - 4, roughly.
4
1
87https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...jTwRgT_x96.jpg
Sahara
@LMR_Sahara
·
13h
Thanks
1https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...bI5f8h_x96.jpg
Crosspatch-
@VictorishB123
·
13h
Replying to
@rrichcord
and
@glosmeusec
By mach 2.5 are you saying that the time from the launch to strike indicates mach 2.5 ground speed? Because a missile such as the sort used for strikes like these take a very highly arched trajectory so the actual missile speed might be much faster.
1
1
35https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...LTQ4zP_x96.jpg
Richard Cordaro
@rrichcord
·
13h
Yes, the missile no doubt took a highly arched trajectory and achieved higher speeds. My "Mach 2.5" came from an estimate of the speed of the shock wave that arrived in Lviv 6 min

Thrust Augmentation 10th Aug 2022 18:46


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11276145)
I don't fully understand that plot, but it seems to show that something (missile flight ? ) took either 29 mins or 14 mins to fly 190 km which is 380 or 760 kph , but certainly not Mach 2.5.( 3 000 kph )

I have clearly gone awry - can you help ?

ATACMS (for example) has a huge ceiling & can be launched off-axis on a "circuitous" path (to screw with counter battery), so distance flown hard to know.

ORAC 10th Aug 2022 18:46

Assuming it was a ballistic missile and slowed to zero vertical velocity at its apex and accelerated under gravity to M2.5 - then it would have peaked at just over 50,000ft and fallen for 60 seconds before impact.

Since it’s accelerating under gravity the distance from the launch point is irrelevant, it’s the height from which the descent commenced which determines the terminal velocity.

BlankBox 10th Aug 2022 19:23

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...878299651.html

First unrectified images of Saki Air Base in Crimea ...


ORAC 10th Aug 2022 19:47

@the_ins_ru has obtained an archive of complaints made to the Russian military prosecutor's office, which provides some very interesting insights from various perspectives into the experiences of Russian soldiers in the Ukraine war. Here's a thread highlighting some of them…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...860605441.html

ORAC 10th Aug 2022 19:55

What you pay for and what you get - whilst the general has a villa and Ferrari in Cyprus…

Reactive armour on captured T80 found to be blocks of rubber….


Wokkafans 10th Aug 2022 20:07

Non-explosive and non-energetic reactive armour

"NERA and NxRA operate similarly to explosive reactive armour, but without the explosive liner. Two metal plates sandwich an inert liner, such as rubber.[1] When struck by a shaped charge's metal jet, some of the impact energy is dissipated into the inert liner layer, and the resulting high pressure causes a localized bending or bulging of the plates in the area of the impact. As the plates bulge, the point of jet impact shifts with the plate bulging, increasing the effective thickness of the armour. This is almost the same as the second mechanism that explosive reactive armour uses, but it uses energy from the shaped charge jet rather than from explosives.[2]

Since the inner liner is not explosive itself, the bulging is less energetic than on explosive reactive armour, and thus offers less protection than a similarly-sized ERA. However, NERA and NxRA are lighter and completely safe to handle (and safe for nearby infantry), can theoretically be placed on any part of the vehicle, and can be packaged in multiple spaced-out layers if necessary. A key advantage of this kind of reactive armour is that it cannot be defeated via tandem warhead shaped charges, which employ a small forward warhead to detonate ERA before the main warhead fires."

https://military-history.fandom.com/...eactive_armour

Re Russian NERA/NxRA: "Each reflecting plate array consisted of an assembly of three layers ; a heavy armor plate, a rubber interlayer and a thin metal plate, all glued together."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-ex...reactive_armor

NutLoose 10th Aug 2022 20:46

You can understand why HAS sites are all angled off from one another, those blast walls used here simply channelled the initial missile hits into each aircraft bay, and by staggering them across from each other ensured any blast in one would channel into the two opposite….. good design….. not.

ORAC 10th Aug 2022 20:49

Interesting background information - but all the information states the T-80 is supposed to be fitted with reactive armour…..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-80#Armour

https://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/c.../ussr/t-80.php

https://www.military-today.com/tanks/t80.htm

Bagheera S 10th Aug 2022 20:54


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11276167)
Assuming it was a ballistic missile and slowed to zero vertical velocity at its apex and accelerated under gravity to M2.5 - then it would have peaked at just over 50,000ft and fallen for 60 seconds before impact.

Since it’s accelerating under gravity the distance from the launch point is irrelevant, it’s the height from which the descent commenced which determines the terminal velocity.

ORT21 Tochka, (Scarab C) Tactical BM with a range of 185km and burn out velocity of Mach 5.3. The Ukrainian’s had approx 500 of them from the USSR, nobody seems to know how many they have left. However they’ve been used before eg on 24 March 2022, they used one to sink the Russian Navy amphibious landing shipSaratov and in doing so demonstrated remarkable accuracy.





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