So much for the fabled Russian officers, it appears they legged it and left their Lt Colonel behind.

Russian troops in Kharkiv are finding the going rough…rough rough. :E

Not going well for the Russians crossing the Dnipro River. Contains images of injuries.

Twitter

Extended clip: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

Being an aviation forum what's the general consensus on this?

A. A Ukrainian MiG-29 taking out a Russian SU-25 using a AAM (the white streak emerging from the right hand side of the clip at ~ 5 sec before the MiG-29 comes into view).
or
B. A MANPAD taking out the SU-25.

The Russians have acknowledged the loss of the aircraft and have stated the pilot survived.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

My money (based on shaky footage at the critical moment, which always makes me suspicious....) - the two smoke trails are not connected - trail from rhs is the second frogfoot rocketing something (straight, less distinct trail), the spiral trail afterwards is a manpad shot from behind the ridge line

THIS IS WHAT VICTORY LOOKS LIKE: Aldin @tinso_ww posts this video of UKR motor rifle troops advancing in the Balakliya area.…

Thanks to @John_A_Ridge for showing me this. The MSTA-B is one of Russia’s newest howitzers and BM-21s have a 40km+ range. If Ukraine is capturing these pieces mostly intact, it’s means Ukraine has penetrated 20-30km behind Russia lines in Kharkiv at this point...

Was just talking with a NATO officer about the Russian Army and asked him how long it would take the Finnish Army to seize St Petersburg.

He said, ‘not long, only problem they’d face is that the Poles would get there first”

Indeed not.

Crossing water obstacles continues to be difficult for military operations, and while the recipients on this day are Russian forces (conscripts, press-ganged or other security forces) at some point in the future it will be the Ukrainian turn to attempt the same activity in order to recover their sovereign territory. The only saving grace will be if the deficiencies in Russian equipment and training become a factor, while expanding means to attrite Russian arty continues. To make that happen, Ukraine still needs to interdict the MSR of the Russians, there being a number of rail lines, rail bridges and other choke points that would pose a logistical problem to the Russian engineering corps to recover.

The Kerch bridge continues to be a rational target, it is on Ukrainian territory, occupied illegally by Russia, and being used to support a criminal enterprise schemed up by Putin and the lapdogs of the Duma.

Intermittent follow up attacks on the road bridge at the east end of the Novo Kharkova dam, over the lock canal would disincentivize attempts to develop resupply by that route. Just once in a while.

The Russian Ministry of Finance payouts for Russian troop KIA's may be accurate or as suggested could be another grift by management while getting ready for their retirement. The numbers involved are so close to the Ukrainian estimates that it is troubling. Taking the Ukrainian values and profiting from those while also burying the evidence of high level corruption seems like an attractive option for the cynical management-I-C of Russian forces. It is akin to the stocktake corrections that follow a Class A mishap, where the mishap F-16 or other ride is the basis for writing off the missing tools, chairs, computers, trucks, PEDs etc, SEQ and other paraphernalia that are accountable items. If the RuZZian MOF is actually telling the truth, then that should be seen as an imminent collapse of the RF in the field, the UF figures would suggest 1:3 fatality:combat injury ratios, and that would match or exceed the original force applied to start the show on 24th Feb.

The RF seem to be supported to about the same extent as Napoleon was on 19 October 1812. Some of the LPR/DNR arms seem to come from that period, some of the RF ratpacks are not much more recent. If unprepared for Lt Gen Winter, a collapse of the RF in the field may be not far off. The incentive for the conscripts seems to be free Ladas for their surviving families, so long as Putin keeps his word. The same words that said conscripts would not end up sitting in trucks in Ukraine as targets for RPGs and ATWs. Average temp in Kherson in Nov overnight is below zero (degrees C)... October will bring occasional freezes that will incapacitate those inadequately prepared for the cold wx ops. Within 50 days from now the RF will be desirous of better management from their quartermasters. Ukraine has a number of specific routes that the RF rely on for resupply, some are rather attractive, they can annoy the train sets considerably. It's not likely that conscripts, convicts on parole, and vagrants from Russian cities which is the recruitment target of RF at present will be overly impressed with the 22 Dec 44 response by Gen McAulliffe:
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....8fc14b5e40.jpg
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....7b1103ebfd.jpg

One thing is becoming more likely, that the RF have a clock running, and relying on winter being their saviour is taking the wrong message from Moscow, 1812 & 1941. This time round, it is the RF that are on the end of the hook of MSR issues, not the other team. The collapse when it comes will be fast and predictably unexpected, yet revisionist history will suggest it was inevitable. It is, but it is a high probability outcome here and now, prior to the event.

1. Roll on winter.
2. The West; lets get arctic gear rolling to the UF ASAP. the situation turns in 24 hours when unprepared.
3. The civilian population are looking towards a humanitarian disaster. UN; this is foreseeable, and preventable. Are we prepared to save the Ukrainian civilians in the Donbas, and Crimea following a rout of the RF which is not a surprise possibility?
4. The UN needs to be ready with humanitarian aid for the civilians, and to assist the former RF conscripts as they collapse in place and become a responsibility for Ukraine to care for under the Geneva Convention, assuming that the farcical "Special" term is placed in the dumpster of history along with Putin and his cronies.
5. [WARNING: AVIATION CONTENT] The West and other countries with a humanitarian policy need to start planning for the Berlin Airlift of our times, to avoid a disaster of historical proportions on the doorstep of Europe. It's time to start the planning, per 5-P's.

thanks, fdr, another great post. May all our dreams come true as the situation unfolds. I just worry constantly about Putin’s next [ultimate?] stupidity.

I'm hoping a praying that - should Putin decide if he's going down, he's going to take the world down with him (not an unlikely scenario IMHO) - that there is someone in the Russian chain of command who has the stones to just say NO! and stop the madness.

As we all are. fdr, thank you for your thoughtful and enlightening posts. In a private message to me you explained your connection and understanding as to what is going on. Thank you for that and please continue to educate us re Russian history and actions. It almost seems that we are spiraling towards a useless and unnecessary conclusion. I hope this is not the case. One man's ego should not decide the future of the human race.

Note the russian figures probably dont count, DNR, LNR, Wagner or federal troops like Rosvgardia or SOBR. So could well be that UA which counts all of them could be understating by a substantial amount

General Mick Ryan:

“Notwithstanding operational security needs (and possibly some deception) this is a superb example of a strategic assessment from the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces.”….

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...rspective.html

Prospects for running a military campaign in 2023: Ukraine’s perspective

When the budgetary note first appeared on Twitter probably picked from a Telegram channel, everyone seemed to question its authenticity. Despite the interesting debate it sparked here, wise fellows might want to consider that.

There is a video circulating on Youtube that says the details of some sort of "conversion kit" for the Mig 29 was done many years ago by Raytheon. All they had to do was pull out the plans and make up the harnesses apparently. It certainly sounds plausable. The German Luftwaffe operated Mig 29's for a long time after the fall of the Soviets.

More footage from the other day where the troops were behind the APC and tanks were firing from a ridge line, tanks pull back, troops move forward.

Russian military blogger Igor Girkin…

…“ if the grouping that is now launching an attack from the Valley can cut the Oskol road - Yatskovka, then Russia will face the most heavy military defeat after the defeat near Kharkov in the winter of 1943”…

As per the forecast at #8884,

It sounds as though Russian aviation is throwing everything they can to stop the Ukrainian advance, including dropping bombs, not just using rockets.

Let's hope they are bombing with their usual accuracy :E