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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Paul C 20th Aug 2022 06:43

On aviation matters, whatever happened to the fleets of Russian AN2s we saw back in February?

ORAC 20th Aug 2022 06:47

“This appears to be the first visual confirmation of a long-range #ATACMS rocket on M142 #HIMARS chassis, spotted on the road somewhere in #Ukraine.”

rattman 20th Aug 2022 06:48

The latest defence package from the US has TOW listed ! Is this the first time ? Also noticed they are officially announcing additional harms as well

Missiles for HIMARS;
16 105-mm howitzers and 36,000 shells for them;
15 Scan Eagle drones;
40 MRAP vehicles;
HARM anti-radar missiles;
TOW anti-tank missile systems;
1,000 Javelin;
2,000 armor-piercing shells.

sheikhthecamel 20th Aug 2022 07:12


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11281722)
I fort the nuclear plant was designed to be so strong as to be able to be hit by an airliner and still hold it's structural integrity.
Am I missing something here?

I believe its 3rd generation reactors that have passive safety features built into them that make them relatively safe to external "attacks" to the structure eg via missile or aircraft impact. The ones built in the Arabian gulf post 9/11 had a lot of though put into this aspect for obvious reasons. Still, i assume that the operative word here is "relatively" safe...

Edit: Can't find a definitive reference, but given the dates of commissioning, I assume Zaporizhzhia NPP is a 2nd generation plant.

Pali 20th Aug 2022 07:32

It seems HARM missiles are in fact adjusted to use on Mig-29 already: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ation-missiles

Per this article Ukrainian pilots learn how to do a brrrrrt: https://time.com/6207115/ukraine-tra...pilots-russia/

Beamr 20th Aug 2022 07:36


Originally Posted by Paul C (Post 11281758)
On aviation matters, whatever happened to the fleets of Russian AN2s we saw back in February?

apparently being filled with HE and used as suicide drones. But, it is stated that as they need approx 2 years to do it they will not be seen in action anytime soon. Unless Putin goes Kamikaze of course and sends pilots on suicide missions. ...imagine Russia telling some poor fella from siberia that congrats, you have been made a pilot. Only take off training required.

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries...tion-3732.html

NutLoose 20th Aug 2022 08:29

Love the end statement lol


NutLoose 20th Aug 2022 08:49

A very good read, to long to copy here

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russ.../31990607.html

rattman 20th Aug 2022 09:14

Interesting video to watch


NutLoose 20th Aug 2022 10:10

Very good video that.

fdr 20th Aug 2022 10:23


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11281690)
fdr,

Imho, the Maidan revolution transformed the situation for Russia, a previously friendly country became hostile. When the facts change, countries adjust their policies, else they fail, gradually or rapidly.
Russia's reaction was entirely predictable and was in fact predicted by most of the US foreign policy veterans who had experience in Russia. Unfortunately they were ignored.
The disaster we now face was entirely avoidable, a little sense of putting yourself into the other guy's shoes would have done the trick.

Pontificating about the unprovoked assault on Ukraine while ignoring the post Maidan civil war in Donbas is rewriting history.
Likewise, claiming all the responsibility was from Putin's 'little green men' is convenient, but unsupported by the evidence from independent observers

Ukraine is, was, and hopefully will remain a free and democratic state, unpolluted by the corruption that resides in the Kremlin and which has done harm to Russia's interests, even yours.

Maidan was action within the rights of an independent state to show objection to a puppet dancing to the strings played by Putin. Like the last dictator of Europe. That the puppet fled is on the puppet and his master, who was happy interfering in an independent state;
not a matter for Russia..As far as I understand Russia is a state within its defined borders, or does it also claim to cover Seoul, Tokyo or any other location that it sees fit as it is an aggressor nation? Russia signed the Alma Ata protocols which expressly pledged for them to keep their vodka breath out of all other former USSR states that were signatories to the same contract. Russia as always disregards its obligations. Just because you object to democratic processes playing out next door does not give you the right to commit genocide.

Or maybe I'm old school.



MPN11 20th Aug 2022 10:33


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11281859)
Very good video that.

Concur. He and his comrades did a fine job.

fdr 20th Aug 2022 11:02


Originally Posted by BANANASBANANAS (Post 11281727)
If 6 reactor cores are blown then, yes, I would agree. But Putin is sly and I would suspect something much smaller but which still carried a great threat and which Putin would then try to use as some form of negotiating lever.

​​​​​​
Putin has all of the subtlety of a drunk robbing the NYPD Xmas Party.

Perhaps the UN is about to grow a pair.

Russia and nuclear safety are not words used often in the same sentence, except in The Simpson's. Playing about with HE within the confines of a PWR anywhere is not something that OH&S is going to be happy with.

My guess is that around 500 Russian conscripts are already destined to have lots of face time with their oncologists, until that doesn't help any more. Already, from digging foxholes in Chernobyl and cooking mushrooms up there. ZNPP coolant is critical to not having a corium event, which of course gets interesting downwind which covers a large amount of Russia, eastern Europe, and of course goes directly into the region that is proximate to... one of the major rivers flowing into the black sea, which flows into the Mediterranean. Say good bye to fishing for food that isn't self illuminated, forget grain exports from Ukraine and Russia for 10k years...

There is no design of a nuclear power plant that has safety from a sociopathic criminal. Well, there is, there is the PBMR/ Th type GCR etc, but anything with pressurised water as a coolant is not happy with being messed with. That it doesn't have an insane PVC as the RBMK1000 had is beside the point. They still have fuel rods clad with a wonderful source of hydrogen when overheated, so the potential for a rupture of the containment which they do actually have, is still very high.

Destroying ZNPP will put Putin into a special category of global criminal.

Consequences of that are catastrophic to food supplies in Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, contaminating the complete areas of the black and med seas, and depriving food to a substantial part of the world.

That this is a discussion item indicates how insane the actions of the Kremlin have been.

The Kremlin won't be getting an Xmas card from me I can jolly well assure!

​​​​​


Wokkafans 20th Aug 2022 11:57


FUMR 20th Aug 2022 13:39

Amazing piece of PR.

Lonewolf_50 20th Aug 2022 13:41


Originally Posted by Pali (Post 11281777)
It seems HARM missiles are in fact adjusted to use on Mig-29 already: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ation-missiles

From your link:

The U.S. government previously announced a still largely unexplained transfer of 70mm Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II laser-guided rockets,
these are the old school 2.75 inch rockets, air to ground launched, with a nice guidance upgrade that make the old salvo fire un necessary. The US uses them on various helicopters and IIRC A-10's.

Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11281866)
Ukraine is, was, and hopefully will remain a free and democratic state, unpolluted by the corruption that resides in the Kremlin and which has done harm to Russia's interests, even yours.

Let's not kid ourselves, Ukraine has had its problems with corruption over the past couple of decades. (Which was one of a number of obstacles to their joining the EU). As but one example, their former PM, Tymoshenko, ended up being convicted and IIRC went to prison. (Mind you, that whole process may have been a massive political ploy by political opponents based on her own efforts to deal with endemic corruption; a variety of charges against her over the years were eventually dismissed).
While that does not excuse an invasion, it might be best not to put on rose colored glasses. Of course, the first priority is to deal successfully with the invasion and sort out the other bits and pieces in due course. In the near term, supporting their efforts to repulse the invasion is going to take primacy over much else. (The dimwits from Amnesty International got that back to front).

etudiant 20th Aug 2022 14:47

An outside perspective which seems sensible to me: https://www.theamericanconservative....ukrainian-war/

The Ukraine leadership has done a superb job mobilizing western international opinion and quashing dissent, internally as well as externally.
To illustrate, Victoria Spartz, the one person in Congress who is Ukrainian born and personally familiar with the situation, has been efficiently marginalized,
because her criticism of the Ukraine management were too much for Kiev.
Imho the absence of critical monitoring and auditing was a major factor in the failure of the US Afghan mission, by the evidence it is being repeated in spades in Ukraine

fdr 20th Aug 2022 15:11


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11281979)
Let's not kid ourselves, Ukraine has had its problems with corruption over the past couple of decades. (Which was one of a number of obstacles to their joining the EU). As but one example, their former PM, Tymoshenko, ended up being convicted and IIRC went to prison. (Mind you, that whole process may have been a massive political ploy by political opponents based on her own efforts to deal with endemic corruption; a variety of charges against her over the years were eventually dismissed).
While that does not excuse an invasion, it might be best not to put on rose colored glasses. Of course, the first priority is to deal successfully with the invasion and sort out the other bits and pieces in due course. In the near term, supporting their efforts to repulse the invasion is going to take primacy over much else. (The dimwits from Amnesty International got that back to front).

Concur. It is one thing to have the countries own issues to deal with, all countries do to a greater or lesser extent, except my own country, which last had a leader in around 1988.... yet seems to muddle along adequately if not competently. Russia's corruption is on a higher plane (aviation content...) :}

Ukraine has not breached its treaties with other countries, that is all on the Russian side, and is in keeping with the contempt for agreements that Russia shows at every turn. ​​​ OTOH, the speed that all countries let Ukraine hang out to dry after the agreement to remove nukes from their state was amazing. Enough shame to go around for some time. The excuses given were morally indefensible. ​​​​

T28B 20th Aug 2022 16:24

Please stop personalizing the discussion.
I have removed a number of posts that did so, to include the one by Geriaviator who very sensibly called on those of you in this discussion to stop doing just that.
In keeping with general forum rules, remember that you can play the ball and not the player by focusing on what it is about another poster's presentation that you disagree with, and addressing that.
Please do so, and then avoid getting personal in your responses (even if one is tempted to do so).
Thank you all in advance.
T28B

DirtyProp 20th Aug 2022 16:30


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11281993)
An outside perspective which seems sensible to me: https://www.theamericanconservative....ukrainian-war/

The Ukraine leadership has done a superb job mobilizing western international opinion and quashing dissent, internally as well as externally.
To illustrate, Victoria Spartz, the one person in Congress who is Ukrainian born and personally familiar with the situation, has been efficiently marginalized,
because her criticism of the Ukraine management were too much for Kiev.
Imho the absence of critical monitoring and auditing was a major factor in the failure of the US Afghan mission, by the evidence it is being repeated in spades in Ukraine

Great, shall we do the same analysis for Russia now? How is Putin's gov'mt quashing dissent?

Ukraine was - and probably still is - a very corrupt state, no one denies that. However they made strides in changing their ways and better themselves which is why the Kremlin mafia in Moscow invaded them in the first place.
As for mobilizing western international opinion, Russia did that all by itself.


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