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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Thud_and_Blunder 19th Aug 2022 15:42

Meanwhile, a redditor found this linky from Twatter (you'll have to quote this post to see the link):
..a Russian drone was downed, within which was found an SD card with video showing the base from which it was launched and the operator who made the recording.

fitliker 19th Aug 2022 16:02


Originally Posted by BlankBox (Post 11281430)
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...fireball_near/

DAMN!! ...what was that boy carrying?

The turret went really , is that the record or have there been greater heights reached. It got lost in the expanding smoke at about 250 feet so it may have went higher in the smoke . Are there any more videos showing reasons to avoid tank regiments ?

BANANASBANANAS 19th Aug 2022 16:21


Originally Posted by safetypee (Post 11281416)
If power station is attacked then;

Remove the restriction on NATO (US) supplied long range weapons for use only within Ukraine

As much as that might provide some short term satisfaction it would all but guarantee such an escalation that we would have a full on NATO v Russia conflict very quickly. That said, I think that is getting more and more likely anyway. Vlad is getting his butt kicked and he knows it even if his people haven't been told yet. He can't/won't back down and fairly soon either his own people will have to take him out or he will behave like a cornered wild animal. A wild animal with a finger on a nuclear trigger.

Usertim 19th Aug 2022 16:37


Originally Posted by BANANASBANANAS (Post 11281464)
As much as that might provide some short term satisfaction it would all but guarantee such an escalation that we would have a full on NATO v Russia conflict very quickly. That said, I think that is getting more and more likely anyway. Vlad is getting his butt kicked and he knows it even if his people haven't been told yet. He can't/won't back down and fairly soon either his own people will have to take him out or he will behave like a cornered wild animal. A wild animal with a finger on a nuclear trigger.

At the point where someone blows up 6 reactor cores and knowingly dumps millions of bequerels of radiation over western europe do you not think that is already full conflict?
I would definitely expect Art.5 activation to be requested by all those NATO eastern europe countries.
Let us hope it does not come to that.

NutLoose 19th Aug 2022 16:44

The guys gone one hundred percent fruity loops… I do wonder if the Russian population has a clue as to what will happen, it’s ok those dickheads on Russian State TV saying the we can nuke them, one missile and the U.K. is gone crap, but they fail to mention that it is a two sided sword. And a sword that will be difficult to put back in its scabbard.

albatross 19th Aug 2022 17:22

I assume the SD card would also have very good video and GPS position information of its flight path to the location it was downed. Such information could be most useful. Perhaps the SD stands for Sudden Death if any useful targets it overflew can be identified and taken out.


Originally Posted by Thud_and_Blunder (Post 11281439)
Meanwhile, a redditor found this linky from Twatter (you'll have to quote this post to see the link):
https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status...16212383162373
..a Russian drone was downed, within which was found an SD card with video showing the base from which it was launched and the operator who made the recording.


MPN11 19th Aug 2022 17:40

BBC ...

  • Russia's President Putin has agreed in a call with France's President Macron on the need for a visit to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant by inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). the Kremlin says
  • A visit to the facility could take place in September, a Russian diplomat has said

Don't stand down, but perhaps breathe more easily this weekend?

NutLoose 19th Aug 2022 17:46

Footage just released from way back in May of the fight for Snake Island


Lonewolf_50 19th Aug 2022 17:56

As to nuclear weapons (not the plant) I think Putin's bluffing, and using the various talking heads to trumpet that about is a smoke screen.

Originally Posted by Usertim (Post 11281469)
At the point where someone blows up 6 reactor cores and knowingly dumps millions of bequerels of radiation over western europe do you not think that is already full conflict? I would definitely expect Art.5 activation to be requested by all those NATO eastern europe countries. Let us hope it does not come to that.

Indeed, let's hope not. You have an interesting take on applying Article V, and I think it probably fits within the intent. *tips cap*

Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11281474)
... it’s ok those dickheads on Russian State TV saying the we can nuke them, one missile and the U.K. is gone crap, but they fail to mention that it is a two sided sword. And a sword that will be difficult to put back in its scabbard.

Difficult indeed, it's one of those irreversible decisions.

Originally Posted by MPN11 (Post 11281509)
Don't stand down, but perhaps breathe more easily this weekend?

Glad to see that a few level headed suggestions are being considered.

FUMR 19th Aug 2022 18:02

Glad to see that a few level headed suggestions are being considered.

The only problem I have is that I no longer believe ANYTHING that Putin says!

Tartiflette Fan 19th Aug 2022 18:06

Surprisingly there has been no discussion of the explosions that happened close to/on the Belbek airfield last night. This is one of the last remaining major airfields in Crimea, therefore of major significance for the Russkis, with a good number of fighter aircraft based there ( can't recall where I read that ) and therefore likely aircraft losses

Has no one seen/read anything ?

etudiant 19th Aug 2022 18:14


Originally Posted by Usertim (Post 11281469)
At the point where someone blows up 6 reactor cores and knowingly dumps millions of bequerels of radiation over western europe do you not think that is already full conflict?
I would definitely expect Art.5 activation to be requested by all
those NATO eastern europe countries.
Let us hope it does not come to that.


With the winds as currently blowing, the radioactivity would mostly impact Odessa, Turkey and maybe Crimea, rather than western Europe..
Highly recommend this site https://earth.nullschool.net/ to see the local winds, it was useful during the Fukushima disaster.

It seems obvious that Russia, which controls the site, wants to unplug this facility from the Ukraine grid.
That would be damaging to Ukraine, so they are pointing out forcibly that the site is very vulnerable and that any accidents there would mostly impact Russia.
So there is a method to the madness, while both sides blame each other for events both provoke.

Tartiflette Fan 19th Aug 2022 18:15


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11281519)
As to nuclear weapons (not the plant) I
Indeed, let's hope not. You have an interesting take on applying Article V, and I think it probably fits within the intent. *tips cap*
Difficult indeed, it's one of those irreversible decisions..

I'm not interested to make this a political discussion, but Britain is currently shackled with a cretin as a PM ( speaking as a conservative supporter ) and I really wouldn't want him to be involved in any such existential decisions.

langleybaston 19th Aug 2022 18:18


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11281530)
With the winds as currently blowing, the radioactivity would mostly impact Odessa, Turkey and maybe Crimea, rather than western Europe..
Highly recommend this site https://earth.nullschool.net/ to see the local winds, it was useful during the Fukushima disaster.

It seems obvious that Russia, which controls the site, wants to unplug this facility from the Ukraine grid.
That would be damaging to Ukraine, so they are pointing out forcibly that the site is very vulnerable and that any accidents there would mostly impact Russia.
So there is a method to the madness, while both sides blame each other for events both provoke.

A straight short answer to a straight short question please:

WHICH EVENTS DID UKRAINE PROVOKE?

Video Mixdown 19th Aug 2022 19:31


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11281533)
I'm not interested to make this a political discussion.

Why do it then? For the record It is due in no small part to UK government decisions that Ukraine is still in the fight at all - an opinion freely acknowledged by Ukraine itself.

ORAC 19th Aug 2022 20:33

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon...ian-artillery/

Seek and destroy’: New US aid to Ukraine targets Russian artillery

WASHINGTON ― A new $775 million military aid package for Ukraine marks the first time the U.S. is sending ScanEagle drones, for targeting artillery, as well as 105mm howitzers and anti-tank rounds for the Carl Gustaf rifle to the fight against Russia, the Pentagon announced Friday.

The latest package of U.S. aid to Ukraine also includes the AGM-88 high-speed anti-radiation missile, which will allow Ukrainian forces to target Russian radars in the artillery-focused war. The disclosure marks the first time the Pentagon has discussed its provision of high-speed anti-radiation missiles to Ukraine in detail.

“Ukraine has successfully employed these missiles. They have successfully integrated them onto Ukrainian aircraft. And this enables Ukraine to seek and destroy Russian radars,” a senior defense official told reporters. The Pentagon provided the official for comment on condition of anonymity.

The Pentagon is sending 15 ScanEagles ― a small, long-endurance, low-altitude drone made by Insitu and used for reconnaissance, which is intended to help guide targeting for Ukrainian artillery. Other firsts include 16 105mm howitzers (with 36,000 artillery rounds) as well as 1,000, tube-launched, optically tracked anti-tank missiles for Carl Gustaf weapons sent by other allies.

The aid also includes 40 mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles for mine-clearing, 50 Humvees and 1,000 Javelin anti-tank weapons….

ORAC 19th Aug 2022 20:55

"80% of Wagner recruits will not come back from Ukraine", says Evgeny Prigozhin, Wagner owner (and Putin's chief recruiter for Ukraine invasion)

Wokkafans 19th Aug 2022 21:21


etudiant 19th Aug 2022 21:45


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11281535)
A straight short answer to a straight short question please:

WHICH EVENTS DID UKRAINE PROVOKE?

For the plant, shelling items near it.
Seriously, we had the video yesterday of Excaliburs plinking individual towing trucks in shelters, looked like under 10 feet error.
So Ukraine has the means to hit any target near the plant without damaging the facility itself. If they don't, it is to send a message.

meleagertoo 19th Aug 2022 22:24

This is looking like a resort to nuclear blackmail.

Putain is militarily stuck and hugely embarrassed verging on humiliated and being a 'little man' he can't accept that.

Occupying a nuc plant gives him several advantages.

Tactically, a safe place to amass weapons and troops as the other side daren't retaliate.
Strategically, a guaranteed way to utterly and globally discredit the other side if they do.
Plus he opportunity to do that 'false flag' even if they don't.
An unanswerable bargaining chip to ensure any 'negotiation' towards ending the conflict goes his way.

I can see no disadvantages to Russia in doing this - at least, no disadvantages that they care about - and as massive radiological disaster is not one that much bothers them they hold all the cards here.

I can't see what anyone can do in the face of this.


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