Lots of attacks tonight including the bridges in Kherson, again, and another ammo dump gone in Belgorod…

Reports on Sky of explosions in Sevastopol - but it seems likely another airfield attack on Belbek as referenced above..

Its called N-ERA (non-explosive reactive armor) its a real thing all the technical docs talk about rubber, never seen or heard of wood

It really seems to be kicking off tonight. Have to wonder if a counter attack might have commenced….

Reported events tonight:

• Explosions at munitions depot, Timonovo, Belgorod
• Fire/explosions at Stary Oskol Airfield, Belgorod
• Explosions near the bridge at Nova Kakhovka, Kherson
• Explosions around Belbek airport, Crimea
• Air defence activity near Kerch strait bridge, Crimea.

How many ordinary shells would it take to hit a target at that range? There's certainly an efficiency factor here. Also, Russian morale would surely drop out the bottom with soldiers knowing attacks like that are possible; a single shell with no warning......

Precisely Winemaker,
When people go on about the cost of a round,

( a pet hate of mine because they are fighting for their lives and their country, so costs do not come into it, winning is all, so you use whatever is available to get the job done regardless of cost.
The same goes for using missiles against cheap drones, put a cost on the lives you save by killing the drone, the cost of the missile is a pittance in comparison. )

but if you take one round to kill the target as opposed to the Russian way of firing 50 plus rounds at it, the cost of getting that one expensive round to the firing point has to easily outweigh the cost of getting 50 plus rounds to the firing point and take into account the multiple guns and crews needed to fire them against a single gun.

Not seen anything about this before, UA Stormers in action.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-storme...st-of-ukraine/

So much for the myth that was the Russian military, any talent they had, military excellence and possible advancements in material and equipment appears to have been squandered on football clubs, super yachts and vain palaces by Putin and his cronie oligarchs who who bled the country dry.



https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1560360696046665731

https://twitter.com/Noel_dotsol/status/1560360011309764608

..

Nutty, don't conflate things needlessly, it simply confuses matters. The 50 Russian shells against one Excalibur is a false comparison here The point I am making is that the tactical ( and financial ) value of the shell seems to me to be much greater than one truck UNLESS THEY HAVE AN AWFUL LOT OF THEM ( as I said in my previous post : check it). Now Winemaker's point about the effect on morale is very good, because I can imagine that the proof before their very eyes that one shell can take out one truck in a pin-point strike and then a few seconds later a second shell does another truck just the same is devastating. That is going to produce a profound sense of dread which they will undoubtedly spread among their colleagues - if they haven't already viewed it.

You are missing the point, they hit several trucks and they were not standard trucks, they were designed to tow heavy guns and carry ammunition and crews, without them one assumes the guns cannot be re supplied nor moved and possibly the gun crews were with them.
They hit them precisely in their dug out berms, so they were in prepared positions, a gun without the ability to be crewed or moved or fired is just a hunk of stationary metal.

A new artillery tractor truck Kamaz 6350 8x8 enters in service in the Russian army 2212112 | December 2011 army military defence news UK | Military army defense industry news year 2011

This makes sense re Kerch, send in drones expecting to lose the odd one to assess the Air Defence capability and work out the best strike pattern, plus panicking the local Russian population.

Timonono tonight..

Just as Putain is doing using a nuclear reactor as a missile shield, and disregarding the potential cost?

So no, you do not use "whatever is available" unless you want to be an international pariah too.
There are limits.

And that video above "fire intensifying" was posted here well over 4 hrs ago...

Worrying things at the NPP, workers told to stay home Friday, Russian nuclear specialists departed warnings of damaged structures and systems, now Russian planning to put drones over it tomorrow.




https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1560285021516201985

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1560303771800027146

Russia has a Glorious Special Operation
by V. Putin (ret)

Deep, proud voice: The great patriotic special air defence supplied by the makers of S-300 and S-400 will show their advanced skills and capabilities in defending the "Crimea Bridge" from the depravations of the perfidious Ukranian forces that have the effrontery to defend their own land from us, the peace loving people of Russia, who have spent so much energy bringing peace and prosperity to Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, where we have provided Russian dignity and honest government to the poor long suffering population....

"What?"

"We put the CEO of the maker of the missiles in jail? Really? They don't work? They are now expensive unguided replacements for old 152's?"

sotto voice: "can we get Ukrainian citizenship? They seem to be better at management than our clowns.... Could I get to keep the apartment in Sochi I wonder, I grew fond of that from the good old times, a wonderful place to store pee tapes and Swiss bank account statements".

phone rings

"ullo? yes? Vlad, Darth Vlad, Lord Darth Vlad of the deaf star. Yes! Himself! What? Whaaaat? Our ammo dumps are going out in sympathy? Merdé! [excuse the French]. Going up in sympathy? huh? blowing up! I see, at least we can get more of that cheap stuff out of our stores to.... what? we have no more trucks? none? what about the McDonalds trucks, they aren't busy at present.... The owners took the keys? get our locksmiths to.... what? they all got tourist visas and scarpered?"

knock on door

"hold on, there is some one at the door, wait a mo...."

"yes, what is it? I'm a busy man you know, destroying the only intelligent life in the universe is a big job.... A note? from..... Kyiv? What does it say?"

" Dear Sir, we have assessed your recent application for Ukrainian asylum, and find that your reasons are not compelling. Your criminal record is a further impediment to your being granted a temporary visitors visa. Please consider alternative arrangements, yours faithfully..... P.S., Pyongyang is nice at this time of year.... and your winter clothes will fit right in for the next season."

"you are dismissed"

[General backs out quietly, genuflecting the dear leader, showing relief at not being sent to Lefortovo]

back on phone: "we must attack across the... what? the bridge was dropped? after the army leaders had left? We will cross the straights with the mighty navy.... really, all of them? holidays in Novo? Now? The new guy did? What do we have to do the opposed crossing then... the inflatable S-300 decoys? OK. Hold my calls until Spring!"

Needs a complete rewrite, from the top down and the ending is a little sketchy.

The Kerch bridge is past it's LOTEX date....

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....dd280a4379.png
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c7c0ad4932.png
Apparently no one in Russia remembers Chernobyl.

Might seem to be a good idea at the time, and indeed, looking at the lower and upper wind maps at present on windy.com, well, it would seem to be an own goal. A comment recently that Russia is dependent on Ukraine for food etc, by the former CIA dude seems to belie the et up and weather patterns that exist over Eastern Europe for the next few months. It would be a good thing to have food supplies that do not rely on anything for the next few thousand years south and east of Tula in Rus proper. Not great for Ukraine, but pretty ugly for Russia. More than half of the Russian population lives in the area that could get over 1,000kBq, so that is about 5% fatalities over medium period, and lots of little huskies with 3 eyes and 7 fingers. [could revitalise Russian piano compositions, it has been lagging since the 1812 overture...]. Russia's food predominately comes from this area, so, forge food self sufficiency, removes the majority of their energy production supply, and hardly makes friends with those down wind of their intentional act of national Seppuku.

Any adult in the house that considers it a smart move to take out their own nation for the next 10,000 years to satisfy the loopy will of the guy who got out of bed on the wrong side, who is apparently going through menopause and his belated mid life crisis is nuts.

I would contend that a deliberate destruction of a NPP that is intended to cause fall out on NATO countries, as well as Ukraine and all other countries in the area, Turkey gets a big dose in any event in the near future, as does China.... and all of the -Stans, would be an overt act of war against NATO. One bit of ionising radiation fallout on a NATO country that is the result of a deliberate, premeditated action of Count Vlad's team would be hard to suggest is not an act of war, and it is by definition something that is on their land.

Some adult intervention may be desirable.

IMHO, E&OE etc...


The question of whether Russia is a terrorist state is self evident. That they are in fact a nuclear terrorist state is more apt at this time.

The rest of the world needs to comprehend that Russia committing national suicide at Putins direction, much like the Kool-aid of Jonestown, comes with severe consequences to the rest of the world. Russia is looking at 000's of own casualties in the first 7 days of taking out ZNPP, then 000,000's within 6 months, and 00,000,000's of its own population within 9 months. Of course they can always ask for food aid from the countries that they have been threatening... good luck with that, the Ukrainians would need the same. Back in the dark continent, the consequences are a little bit worse, mass famine would result within 2 months, as they will lose all harvested food stock from both Ukraine and Russia. That should be interesting for the consequential turmoil in North Africa, Middle East, and in the sub continent. China gets a dose, and they are already looking at probable food shortfalls from imports, and they are no where near self sufficient. All of the countries that China has been threatening in the SCS in recent times would be asked to give food to China? That should be interesting.

If the UN has any reason to be, it is to get active now, before the gnome in the Kremlin does something really naughty. Russia has no say in the UNSC as they are a belligerent party in the conflict, (the relevant wording by recollection is conflict, not "war", so being obtuse doesn't alter the facts).

We are definitely answering Fermi's paradox in real time; nothing in relation to Russia's action since 24 Feb 22 suggests that intelligent life exists in this universe: "perhaps the next one over is.... oh? Vlad 2.0 of the parallel universe just blew that one up too? Too bad.... "

Meanwhile, is the Kerch bridge down? There was a highway advertising sign put up back in the day when Boeing (sorry about the aviation content) was suffering hard times and laying everyone (well, almost) off. Maybe a similar one is needed there....


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ef1e8c694b.jpg

I did say a while back the West needs to make it clear to Russia that if anything happens to the station, there will be an equal or greater response to Russia end off.

Sense would be that the legal rules of war and the Geneva convention needs to be rewritten to basically set out international exclusion zones around Nuclear Power Plants of say 20 miles during conventional warfare.