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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

peter we 10th Aug 2022 07:46


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11275727)
Unclear to me . Do you mean Western consumption ? If yes, this completely ignores my question about giving the Russkies forward information about new weapons.

ditto ORAC

You assume that any of the information provided is is either true or complete.

peter we 10th Aug 2022 08:06


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11275849)
Your weekly reminder that production of MGM-140 ATACMS ended 15-yrs ago. Only 3,700 ever manufactured. Present inventory unk.

Its replacement, the "Precision Strike Missile," due to saturation levels of good idea fairies won't achieve IOC not until next year.

That was the peace timescale for the the PSM.

NutLoose 10th Aug 2022 09:20

Queueing said to be Nr 10 KM long to flee Crimea.. You won't be able to hide that fact from the populace on the other end of the bridge that all is not well.



oops... over confidence spells a disaster waiting to happen


jolihokistix 10th Aug 2022 09:36

Just throwing this into the pot. The sky was exceptionally clear and blue. No-one has yet mentioned the possibility of unintentional/accidental discharge of missile(s) etc. on the ground.
https://aviation.stackexchange.com/q...ed-on-the-grou

Beamr 10th Aug 2022 09:53

"According to Russian media, Saki air base of Russian Navy Aviation has now been evacuated following the missile strike of Ukraine. The surviving aircraft of 43rd Independent Assault Aviation Regiment are flown to Gvardeyskoye air base in North of Simferopol, Crimea"

If the Ukrainians could hit Saki, those planes aren't in a safe place.




rattman 10th Aug 2022 09:55

Washington post are reporting it was ukrainian SOF

A Ukrainian government official told The Washington Post on Wednesday that an airfield explosion in occupied Crimea was the work of Ukrainian special forces.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, did not disclose details on how the Tuesday attack was carried out. However, the attack marks a dramatic escalation in the nearly six-month-old war, demonstrating an ability by Ukrainian forces to strike at Russia far from front lines.

The explosions rocked a Russian air base Tuesday, close to an area of beach resorts in occupied Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces have been known to infiltrate enemy-held territory and coordinate with sympathetic locals on the ground. Guerrilla activity has been especially prevalent in the occupied southern Kherson region, just north of Crimea. In the Ukraine war, a battle for the nation’s mineral and energy wealth.

An aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially distanced Kyiv from the attack on Tuesday, however, in a nightly address to the nation Zelensky vowed to win back the territory. “Crimea is Ukrainian, and we will never give it up,” he said, without mentioning the air base strike.

Russia has said the blast was caused by an ammunition explosion and reportedly killed at least one and injured at least nine, including two children. The Ukrainian Air Force in a statement Wednesday said that nine Russian aircraft were taken out in the strikes.

The Washington Post could not independently verify the claims from either side.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, told The Post Tuesday that it appeared Ukrainian forces had carried out the strike but using a weapon not provided by the United States. U.S. officials referred additional questions about the operation to Ukraine.

Wokkafans 10th Aug 2022 10:23

Nutty - that's a picture of The Garden Ring Street in Moscow taken in 2019.

Appreciate all your posts - some great info in them :ok:

https://www.alamy.com/russia-moscow-...impact&irgwc=1

NutLoose 10th Aug 2022 10:32


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11275916)
Just throwing this into the pot. The sky was exceptionally clear and blue. No-one has yet mentioned the possibility of unintentional/accidental discharge of missile(s) etc. on the ground.
https://aviation.stackexchange.com/q...ed-on-the-grou

Two in two locations at the same time?

NutLoose 10th Aug 2022 10:36


Originally Posted by Wokkafans (Post 11275936)
Nutty - that's a picture of The Garden Ring Street in Moscow taken in 2019.

Appreciate all your posts - some great info in them :ok:

https://www.alamy.com/russia-moscow-...impact&irgwc=1

Crikey, they have got that far ;) apologies for the error :uhoh:

Try this instead.


What a difference a day makes...

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1557311914493022209


..

dead_pan 10th Aug 2022 11:08


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11275916)
Just throwing this into the pot. The sky was exceptionally clear and blue. No-one has yet mentioned the possibility of unintentional/accidental discharge of missile(s) etc. on the ground.
https://aviation.stackexchange.com/q...ed-on-the-grou

Err that's more-or-less Russia's explanation as to what happened.

I noted yesterday on Twitter that the timing of the attack was significant given the airbase's location close to popular tourist beaches. It wouldn't have received anywhere near the coverage had it occurred at night. Untold hundreds of Russians must have filmed the event and shared it with their mates. The attack's propaganda value could well outweigh its military impact.

dead_pan 10th Aug 2022 11:09


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11275941)

Deploy ze Deutsche beach towels!

dead_pan 10th Aug 2022 11:13


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11275923)
Washington post are reporting it was ukrainian SOF

Careless words cost lives - any hints of SF involvement and Russia will redouble their efforts to try and find them. Much better to run with the "new Ukrainian missile" line IMO, keep the Russkies guessing.

NutLoose 10th Aug 2022 11:18

This is telling, take out the radar system the other week that left the airbase vunerable, take out the airbase and the AA in the region with artillery and MLRS strikes, take out the headquarters buildings and then you can..


It looks like the inverted main gear of another jet in the background?


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e4a83674c.jpeg

Tartiflette Fan 10th Aug 2022 13:48

Apparently only five of the 15 delivered PzH2000 are still operational: the others require repairs after the extremely intense usage they have been getting. The problem is that only small repairs are currently possible in Ukraine, and shipping them back to Poland is very time consuming and risky. Discussions about other possibilities ongoing.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._52139887.html

In the same article, they report that Ukraine claims at least 10 aircraft destroyed during explosions at Saki airbase and Russia claims destruction of one Gepard Flakpanzer and seven Himars near Mikolajiw, and three fighter jets shot down in S Ukraine.

PeterX60 10th Aug 2022 14:01

Dead pan:

Careless words cost lives - any hints of SF involvement and Russia will redouble their efforts to try and find them. Much better to run with the "new Ukrainian missile" line IMO, keep the Russkies guessing.
Or you plant a rumour and cause the Orcs to divert substantial resources to tracking mythical SF down, meanwhile terrorising the local population and increasing their resentment at occupying forces; or they think that you are messing with their minds and ignore the rumour, and so on.

Welcome to the world of intelligence warfare doublethink.

ORAC 10th Aug 2022 14:02

SOF?

classic signature of the sonic boom arriving after the impact of a supersonic missile (2 explosions, 2 missiles), which also eliminates the Neptune ASM theory…


jolihokistix 10th Aug 2022 14:15

Totally clear skies. Would there not be some faint traces of burnt propellant?

Davef68 10th Aug 2022 14:24


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11275849)
Your weekly reminder that production of MGM-140 ATACMS ended 15-yrs ago. Only 3,700 ever manufactured. Present inventory unk.
r.

Immediately contradicted by a poster who says that new production started.


NutLoose 10th Aug 2022 14:25

What, like this? ORAC.. mach 2.5 missiles, a fascinating read through the thread on how it's worked out and from where.

https://twitter.com/rrichcord

and


new footage of the latest Dam bridge strike



..

NutLoose 10th Aug 2022 15:05

Now they are trying to take out Chongar bridge?


If the Chongar Bridge were taken out, this would leave the Perekop Isthmus, about 8 km wide and with only two major roads and a rail line, as the only way in or out of Crimea from mainland Ukraine. A chain of salt lakes forms most of the border between Crimea and Kherson Oblast.



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