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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Beamr 5th Apr 2022 09:43


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11210768)
I suspect most of this work is being done with satellites.

I'm still bemused why NATO effectively ceded the Black Sea. It would have been very helpful to have some naval assets in the area to provide additional coverage.

Err... Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are NATO countries with coast on Black sea. To my understanding they are still there.

Also, Global hawks been there circling the black sea for months now.

Geriaviator 5th Apr 2022 09:53

Sweden has been patrolling the Polish eastern border for the past few days, this morning Italy has taken Romania's eastern border. Both operating Gulfstream a/c at 40,000 ft or more. Presumably these are electronic sniffers.

dead_pan 5th Apr 2022 10:01


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11210773)
Err... Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are NATO countries with coast on Black sea. To my understanding they are still there.

Sorry, I meant the US and UK. I'm not sure these other countries will have anything like the eavesdropping capabilities of USN/RN vessels.

Beamr 5th Apr 2022 10:08


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11210782)
Sorry, I meant the US and UK. I'm not sure these other countries will have anything like the eavesdropping capabilities of USN/RN vessels.

I can't make the comparison as I know nothing of those, but the Turkish navy has some capabilities:
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/t...-mediterranean

dead_pan 5th Apr 2022 10:15


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11210788)
I can't make the comparison as I know nothing of those, but the Turkish navy has some capabilities:
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/t...-mediterranean

Possibly, but I doubt they'd be so willing to give the Ukrainians access to their intel given their apparent desire sit between the warring parties and broker the peace.

skridlov 5th Apr 2022 10:18

Recall that there are still people alive in Germany who participated in similar atrocities during WW2. Not that the fact obscures the appallingly similar previous behaviour of Russian troops as they invaded Germany - mass rapes for example.

Meanwhile much of Europe funds Russian atrocities by the continued purchase of Russian gas and oil. It's obviously far more important to sustain manufacture and export of German cars in the short to medium term than to shut off Russian financial resources - despite some window-dressing to the contrary.

The fact is that Europe will need to accept very serious financial damage if Russia is to be stopped. I say "Russia" rather than "Putin" because the vast majority of Russians have swallowed his lies and wish for a "Greater Russia", restoring some imaginary nobility to a despicable nation.

rattman 5th Apr 2022 10:19


Originally Posted by baron_rouge (Post 11210609)

Been denied by the ukrainian govt, I tend to believe them in this case, no armband, clean shaven, well fed and no injuries you would expect from 40 days of fighting

NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 10:27

Clearing their field for planting?


https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical

NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 10:32

US has just sold F-16's to Bulgaria, freeing up other assets for elsewhere?


NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 11:14


Originally Posted by Old-Duffer (Post 11209948)
NutLoose please can I suggest a small flaw about using postal services to track identity of Russian in the postal system. The Belarus is essentially enemy territory and might be reluctant to provide evidence against Russian troops.

Old Duffer


Like I said, do not under estimate facial recognition and postal hacking, names and areas items looted have been sent too.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/4/7337132/


Opposition journalists were able to obtain telephone numbers, military units and cities of residence of the Russian occupiers, who arranged the delivery of looted items of Ukrainians in Mozyr.

Source: Belaruski Haiun

Details: Most of the Russian soldiers arranged the delivery of stolen items to Rubtsovsk in the Altai Region.
They also sent the stolen items to:
  • Gornyak (Altai Region)
  • Chita (Zabaykalsky Region)
  • Zheleznogorsk (Krasnoyarsk Region)
  • Omsk
  • Ulyanovsk
  • Novosibirsk
  • Moscow
  • Angarsk (Irkutsk Region)
  • Ussuriysk (Primorsky Region)
  • Birobidzhan (Jewish Autonomous District, near the China–Russia border)
In one day on 2 April, the Russian occupiers handed over about 2 tons of looted equipment, personal belongings, clothing and precious metals to the branch of the Russian delivery service "CDEK" in Mozyr.

The authors of the project Belaruski Haiun are currently publishing a list of Russian troops, who handed over the largest amount of looted property in Ukraine on April 2:
Read us on Telegram. Subscribe to our channel "UP. Strichka"
  • Kovalenko Evgeny Evgenyevich sent 450 kilograms (about 900 pounds) of instruments, musiс speakers, a table, a tent, and other items to Rubtsovsk. Phone: +79130213100
  • Lazarev Artem Petrovich sent 255 kilograms of spare parts and an electric scooter to Rubtsovsk. Phone: +79132257343
  • Nikolaev Pavel Alexandrovich sent 205 kilograms of tools, a TV-set and a chair to Rubtsovsk. Phone: +79235652819
  • Serdtsev Andrey Nikolaevich sent 150 kilograms of tools, things and a TV-set to Rubtsovsk. Phone: +79831816692
  • Valiev George Muratovich sent 150 kilograms of tools and things to Rubtsovsk. Phone: +79133660555
  • Stepanov Nikolai Nikolaevich sent 140 kilograms of spare parts and air conditioners to Ussuriysk. Phone: 89146747822
  • Kanbolatov Eldar Arslanovich sent 140 kilograms of tools and clothes to Rubtsovsk. Phone: +79230096646
  • Zhukovsky Roman Alexandrovich sent 130 kilograms of tools, things and a TV-set to Rubtsovsk. Phone: +79133615429
  • Chuchalin Evgeny Viktorovich sent 100 kilograms of tools, things and several TV-sets to Rubtsovsk. Phone: +79230018617
  • Voloshchuk Ivan Ivanovich sent 95 kg of tools, things and a TV set to Rubtsovsk. Phone: +79627939791 (wife/mother number)
  • Kolotsey Sergey Alexandrovich sent 90 kg to Ulyanovsk, in particular a trunk lid. Phone: +79378814554 (relative’s phone number)
  • Yushin Vladimir Sergeevich sent 85 kg of clothes to Chita. Phone: +79243830515
  • Grigoryan Artur Ashotovich sent 60 kg to Gornyak. There were batteries and spare parts for computers. Phone: +79831066239
  • Shulaikin Nikolai Nikolaevich sent 60 kg of clothes and fishing tackle to Birobidzhan.
Phone: +79142155101
  • Datsyuk Ivan Andreevich sent 60 kg of clothes to Rubtsovsk. Phone: +79137976731
  • Kuzmin Igor Sergeevich sent 50 kg of tools and things to Rubtsovsk. Phone: +79236497934
Belarusian journalists want to draw attention of the Security Service of Ukraine to their data so that they could initiate criminal proceedings against the Russian occupiers for looting.

Previously: On 3 April, the Belaruski Haiun project released more than 3 hours of video footage from a surveillance camera of the CDEK delivery service office in Mozyr, Belarus, near the state border with Ukraine. The video clearly shows the faces and some chevrons on the sleeves of the occupiers. The invaders arranged the delivery of looted items to Russia.

"Our forces are performing true acts of heroism there. The enemy is sustaining heavy losses in planes, armoured vehicles and manpower"- said Sinegubov.

dead_pan 5th Apr 2022 11:29

Caution: aviation content

NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 11:34

First of Australia's vehicles readied for delivery to Ukraine.


Tartiflette Fan 5th Apr 2022 11:35


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11210811)
Like I said, do not under estimate facial recognition and postal hacking, names and areas items looted have been sent too.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/4/7337132/

Nutty, believe I forgot to thank you yesterday for all that information about what percentages of equipment etc had been destroyed. It was far more complete that I had expected, so repairing the error today - thanks !

NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 11:40

I hope she is salvageable and the damage is not great.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....67942c971.jpeg



https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e29fe6520.jpeg

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....baba45f60.jpeg

Sad shot

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ad000ac5e.jpeg



NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 11:49

Video of inspecting the Myra damage


NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 11:58


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11210816)


Interesting reply on the thread


Interestingly it seems the Stugna-P gunner avoids directly designating the target until the very last moment - meaning the Ka-52's L140 laser warning sensors would have little to no chance to alert to the crew to the incoming missile.

TEEEJ 5th Apr 2022 12:55

Ukrainians downing a Russian Ka-52 Hokum helicopter with an Stugna-P.


SnowFella 5th Apr 2022 12:57

Naturally all depending on how sensitive the laser warning sensor is but I'd doubt just aiming the laser just a few meters off target would render it null and void, would be enough scatter in the atmosphere to direct lots of energy right at the helicopter and it's sensor.

And while everyone keeps on going on about how poorly the Russians are going I bet there's lots of notes being taken down all across the globe in regards how tanks/mechanized units vs modern ATGM's and UAV's look in today's day and age. It's the first time we have seen fully modern ATGM's and UAV's take on tanks, doubt the US thunder run for Bagdad could have survived the armament available today.

Doors Off 5th Apr 2022 13:32


Originally Posted by SnowFella (Post 11210851)
Naturally all depending on how sensitive the laser warning sensor is but I'd doubt just aiming the laser just a few meters off target would render it null and void, would be enough scatter in the atmosphere to direct lots of energy right at the helicopter and it's sensor.

Could be a buddy lase? Not sure if Stugna is capable of that. As for scatter/overspill/underspill etc, I’m pretty sure that the beam dispersal would be minimal over those ranges. Add in the fact that the 52 is NOE, it would make it slightly more challenging for said LWR’s to ID and warn. I think that crew wishes they had a Roof Mounted sight and not a Glass Jaw sensor.

NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 15:04

Czech are providing tanks.


Czechs to supply up to 40 pieces of T-72M1 and BVP-1 (BMP-1 variant) to Ukraine. The equipment is from the storage of Czech Army and unrelated to the ex-East German Pbv-501s.

NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 15:19


Estonia has donated anti-tank missiles, howitzers, anti-tank mines, recoilless anti-tank guns, automatic weapons, ammunition, disposable grenade launchers, hand grenades worth >220 million euros.


Pretty incredible when you consider the size of the population of Estonia. If the US were to give at the same rate, you'd be looking at $80B

Considering the difference in economic might, the US would be looking at more like $155B

Usertim 5th Apr 2022 15:21

Not big in the scheme of things but this video of a Stugna ATGM team engaging is very enlightening , and has good subtitles.


( Buratino is a TOS launch vehicle)

Tartiflette Fan 5th Apr 2022 15:34


Originally Posted by Usertim (Post 11210897)
Not big in the scheme of things but this video of a Stugna ATGM team engaging is very enlightening , and has good subtitles.
https://youtu.be/8FrYM7CxYsU


( Buratino is a TOS launch vehicle)

Did they hit the Buratino because a sub-title said "fuel truck" at the end.

Usertim 5th Apr 2022 15:40


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11210906)
Did they hit the Buratino because a sub-title said "fuel truck" at the end.

Well I guess it is not clear from images. I kind of understood the bit at the end to be that they engaged a fuel truck too after , but the video ended , maybe they were countered or missed.

They were pretty clear the TOS launcher was the priority, and something was hit .

NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 17:30


NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 17:47

Balls of steel or what, a lone Ukrainian tank taking on a Russian armoured column.


The Oberon 5th Apr 2022 18:46


Originally Posted by Doors Off (Post 11210861)
Could be a buddy lase? Not sure if Stugna is capable of that. As for scatter/overspill/underspill etc, I’m pretty sure that the beam dispersal would be minimal over those ranges. Add in the fact that the 52 is NOE, it would make it slightly more challenging for said LWR’s to ID and warn. I think that crew wishes they had a Roof Mounted sight and not a Glass Jaw sensor.

In addition, it has always been fairly standard practice with ATGMs, aim off until the last few seconds, prevents the smoke trail from hiding the target.

Rockie_Rapier 5th Apr 2022 21:35


Originally Posted by Usertim (Post 11210897)
Not big in the scheme of things but this video of a Stugna ATGM team engaging is very enlightening , and has good subtitles.

( Buratino is a TOS launch vehicle)

Fascinating stuff. Interesting personal interactions, they seem more like a bunch of engineers discussing a technical problem than what I would expect of soldiers in combat. (speaking as someone who has never been in combat)(and old too)

Note the guy at time 2:58 with the Union Jack on his sleeve.

baron_rouge 5th Apr 2022 21:37


baron_rouge 5th Apr 2022 21:51

The folly of the Kyiv part of Russian strategy. This is what you get when someone insists on 'reinforcing failure' - massed shredded Russian vehicles at Hostomel airport.


NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 22:07

I don’t know if these are factual, they seem far fetched.. the second one about NATO members is from a Russian site BTW.

https://twitter.com/Luckyabundance7/status/1511459893710102528

https://www.army.mil/article/248323/landcom_commander_lt_gen_cloutier_and_acting_deputy_for_the_ ukrainian_land_forces_major_general_oleksandr_holodniuk_visi t_ipsc



NutLoose 5th Apr 2022 22:33


Originally Posted by baron_rouge (Post 11211079)

There IS NO border, simply one in the Russians minds, it is all Ukraine, let’s get that straight.

Ninthace 5th Apr 2022 23:17

Talk of the General’s capture may be premature as he has denied it, as has NATO. According to them, he is still running the shop in Izmir.

baron_rouge 5th Apr 2022 23:39


TEEEJ 5th Apr 2022 23:39


Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier (Post 11211078)

Note the guy at time 2:58 with the Union Jack on his sleeve.

He is just wearing a UK smock.

baron_rouge 5th Apr 2022 23:42


Lonewolf_50 5th Apr 2022 23:44


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11211119)
Talk of the General’s capture may be premature as he has denied it, as has NATO. According to them, he is still running the shop in Izmir.

I await with baited breath a cable (or text) to be sent by the General, proclaiming that The reports of my capture are greatly exaggerated
Spoiler
 


baron_rouge 5th Apr 2022 23:49


NutLoose 6th Apr 2022 00:13

Video proof of the shooting at a cyclist in Bucha

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/05/w...imes&smtyp=cur

MAINJAFAD 6th Apr 2022 00:16


Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier (Post 11211078)
Fascinating stuff. Interesting personal interactions, they seem more like a bunch of engineers discussing a technical problem than what I would expect of soldiers in combat. (speaking as someone who has never been in combat)(and old too)

Note the guy at time 2:58 with the Union Jack on his sleeve.

As TJEE has stated, fitted to the uniform during manufacture and either bought on-line or given to Ukraine.

Shows the Ukrainians as a whole do have a clue what they are doing, though the first engagement failed as the Missile reload team were far too keen and had not been full briefed on the system (like don't reload until the operator tells them).


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