Thank you, perhaps Putin needs to ask himself why it required a wall with mines, machine gun posts and dogs to keep people in his utopia and prevent them fleeing to the west, but since that came down and those countries grew closer to the west there hasn’t been seen a need to build a wall to prevent the populations fleeing to the east.

west is being used rather freely in this statement, aye?

Imagine how the world would react if any of the western countries invaded sovereign state like Ukraine with unmarked soldiers and annexed part of it, say, Crimea.

"Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government, except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time" (Churchill, House of Commons 11 Nov 1947)

Russia went into Afghanistan and were / are in Syria, they are also in Libya were we were invited in to help.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...year-dtf6mrkgk

Putin ‘is ready to invade Ukraine in the new year’

Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin will hold crisis talks tomorrow as Russia masses 175,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and US intelligence warns of a potential invasion early next year. American intelligence officers believe Moscow has drawn up plans for a military offensive on several fronts as the Kremlin continues to move troops, artillery and armour up to the borders of eastern Europe…..

Ukrainian and Nato sources fear that Moscow could use migrants to seize the Suwałki Corridor — a 60-mile sliver of territory between Poland and Lithuania. The corridor is all that connects Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia with the rest of the European Union and Nato’s European territories.

Under such a scenario, Russia could push migrants into the corridor and stoke unrest. Russian troops could then sweep in and deploy military patrols along the corridor under the guise of a humanitarian crisis. Such a move would enable Russia to link up its forces in Kaliningrad with Belarus. All this could be achieved in less than two hours, Ukrainian assessments suggest. A diplomat from eastern Europe told The Times: “Refugees are a very sophisticated weapon if they are weaponised.”

Last month Russia sent troops to the Belarus border with Poland, where hundreds of migrants were trying to cross to the EU. The Kremlin said the sudden deployment was for snap drills. A Ukrainian source said the migrant crisis on the Belarus border was part of a plan to see if Nato would trigger Article 5 on collective defence of the alliance. They said it was a “rehearsal” for using migrants to seize more territory…….


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6951352cc.jpeg

https://cepa.org/the-suwalki-corridor/

Someone on our side needs to grow a set of balls to prevent this.

Any ideas how to prevent this, should it be really planned that way?

Start moving NATO troops into the area in meaningful numbers in response, and trigger article 5. Sanction the country with a total embargo?.
If you do not protect these countries NATO is not fit for purpose.

It will not end here if we don't contain this.

It mov3 troop# where? Belarus birders with Lithuania/Poland, order of Ukraine, Birders of Serbia/Kosovo and Montenegro?

Lots if misdirection going on with, potentially, a move elsewhere.

You first pal :)

Will a Catholic President and Catholic allies surrounding the Orthodoxy of Moscow attack ? Or seek to expand and enjoy their fellowship in Christ ?

Seems the West and in particular NATO has been soundly outplayed here.
Activate Article 5 and Putin will say he's been proved right on NATO expansion.
Don't activate and he'll say he was proved right that the West doesn't really have the will to protect newer member states.
We're going lose land here and it's anyone's guess how much.

Tashengurt: Poland and Lithuania are already NATO countries, so use of article 5 does not mean expansion to east.

Using article 5 in case little green unpatched men enter polish/lithuanian soil would be entirely sound.

The call must clearly come from the threatened member states and non-member states - if its all quiet in those states' leadership it feels like a public tacit acceptance should their borders be threatened or encroached by Russia, regardless of what goes on behind the scenes. Of course, Russia will say that it is from a minority supported by NATO/EU/Santa/whoever. And they'd know about that....

Well, it would hardly be relevant if they weren't would it?
My point is that Putin will use any military moves by NATO to 'prove' that the Eastern nations were only accepted into NATO to allow for aggressive expansionism.

Putin will use any rhetorics he and his posse come up with to justify his expansionist and imperialist actions. Whether it includes NATO movements or not is entirely insignificant.

So - what is to be done? (to quote V I Lenin)

What do we threaten them with?

Regretfully I think it's time some threats were made clear

What's Putin's aim with all of this? To secure yet more territory and "citizens"? To test NATO's resolve once and for all? Seems a little far-fetched, although, strategically, a move against eastern Ukraine could make sense. Anything more could risk disaster.

Personally I suspect this posturing is more for domestic consumption i.e. to keep him and Russia in the west's limelight and/or divert attention away from Russia's economic plight and bungled Covid response.

Either way he can't keep his troops camped out for that long in this weather.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nvades-ukraine

And from The Times. It would seem that, notwithstanding the talk of sanctions, no one is going to step forward to help Ukraine defend itself….

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...aine-gx8mbj37w

Western leaders plan reprisals if Russia invades Ukraine

Boris Johnson held talks last night with President Biden and other western leaders to agree a package of sanctions against Russia should it invade Ukraine.

The prime minister joined the leaders of Germany, France and Italy to form a joint strategy “to impose significant and severe harm on the Russian economy” before Biden’s high-stakes phone call with President Putin today.

Measures being considered by Nato leaders include cutting off Russia from the international financial settlement system, and restrictions on banks similar to those that crippled the Iranian economy over nuclear non-compliance. Biden is also expected to warn that the US would agree to deploy “additional forces and capabilities” to eastern Europe in response to any incursion.

However, officials made clear that the president would not threaten a direct US military response……

The White House fears that Putin believes he has a moment of opportunity to act because he sees the US and UK focusing on the pandemic, France in the throes of an election and Germany changing leader…..

The conference call had been requested by the US, Downing Street said. A spokesman said afterwards that Johnson and Biden had “emphasised the need to provide a united front in the face of Russian threats and hostility”, adding: “The prime minister said the UK would continue to use all the economic and diplomatic tools at its disposal to prevent any Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/u...arty-5wstpsw3h

Ukraine conflict: Putin invites separatist leaders into his party

The leaders of Kremlin-backed separatist republics in east Ukraine have been made members of President Putin’s ruling United Russia party amid escalating tensions over the Donbas conflict zone.

Denis Pushilin, who heads the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), and Leonid Pasechnik, who leads the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), were handed party tickets by Dmitry Medvedev, United Russia’s chairman, at its glittering annual congress in Moscow.

Although Putin, 69, stepped down as the head of United Russia in 2012, the Kremlin said last week that he remained its “informal” leader.

Pushilin, 40, said his invitation to the annual congress and his membership of Putin’s party was evidence that United Russia “considers Donbas a part of greater Russia”.…. Russia says it has handed out half a million passports to residents of the DPR and the LPR. It has not yet recognised them as independent states, however.

Pushilin warned last week that he could appeal to Russia for military assistance if Ukraine tried to retake the breakaway republics by force.….

Ultimately Russia would like a land corridor to the Crimea. Can’t be taken out as easily as a bridge.

"Ultimately Russia would like a land corridor to the Crimea."

I think ultimately they'd like a land corridor to Calais

Ah, we're going to cripple Russia financially if they don't behave.
Ironic statement to make on December 7th.

I'm really ciritcal towards their aggressive behaviour against Ukraine and the Baltics. But I'm very sure they are not aiming at claiming back Poland or other former Warsaw Pact states.
That said they are for sure interested in the former scope of the USSR as their target sphere of influence. The really explosive part in that regard are the Baltics. A Land corridor to Kaliningrad would mean occupying NATO territory and would be a complete No- Go. And this has to be absolutely clear and un- misunderstandable. A true Red Line. I support bringing in massive troops, Drones and Fighters to demonstrate the readiness to support this.
WRT to Ukraine for me the story is different. I heavily support massive sanctions in case of Russian Aggression. Provision of defensive armament (Stinger, Javelin&Co) to Ukraine. But no direct NATO troop involvement.
Red Lines have to be Red Lines. Invading NATO territory is a Red Line. Full stop. This shouldn't be watered down by semi- red lines for Non- NATO states which in the end are not kept. This opens up room for interpretation regarding the true Red Lines.

I’d suggest more of an interest in a corridor all the way to Transnistria in Moldova. That would deny Ukraine access to the Black Sea and regain the major port of Odessa….

A matched pair, so t9 speak, with a move to take a land corridor back to Kaliningrad and it’s warm water Baltic port.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria

Could possibly be a target.
I doubt it.
How would Russia achieve that without invading NATO territory with all possible and likely consequences?

I know the US became increasingly fast and loose with treaties during the Trump rein but it looks like the UK will be on this path with the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances apparently in the bin. Strategically it looks like Ukraine lost a great deal when it gave up the last of its nuclear weapons in 1996 in exchange for assurances on its security and sovereignty.

Not a great lesson for those countries considering their own nuclear weapons future. Nuclear weapons seemingly matter much more than treaties with the major powers when it comes to defending oneself. Now about that NATO treaty...

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/...vades-ukraine/

How might allies respond if Russia invades Ukraine?

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/1...nvasion-523884

Biden warns Putin on call against Ukraine invasion

"Strategically it looks like Ukraine lost a great deal when it gave up the last of its nuclear weapons i"

that and the death of Gadhafi show why N Korea and Iran are busting their guts to be N powers

Hmmmm....

https://dailycaller.com/2021/12/08/r...clear-weapons/

Have to agree that the takeaway for any nation with an overbearing neighbour and/or any despot looking to secure his position is to acquire nuclear weapons at all costs.

one Question,

Part of Bidens sanctions involves the Nord pipeline, but if Russia invades and takes the Ukraine which I hope does not happen, he would then control the pipeline through the Ukraine so the Nord Pipeline would not really matter.in the then scheme of things.

Also refusing to help the country by putting troops in surely is kicking the legs out from under the Ukraine and virtually telling Putin he is free to invade wherever he chooses free from repercussions because the west will not intervene. So much for promises made when they agreed to disarm their nuclear stockpiles and sadly it means no one else will when given assurances from any western country, and that includes us. If the Ukraine is attacked do they have the abilty to destroy the gas pipeline to the west in retaliation against Russia? rather Like Saddam and the oil fields.

You are presuming that they Ukrainian don’t have a scorched earth plan of destroying the pipeline and pumping stations across the country as they retreat. Why leave it to fall into Russian hands?

Are we considering that it would be a full scale invasion of Ukraine rather than a limited incursion to secure certain 'russian' enclaves?

Some reports that small arms and Javelin anti-tank weapons have been delivered to Kiev /Kyiv .

Most likely option (also to secure the land-bridge to the Crimean peninsula) - leave the rest of the country for some possible future date. I wonder if Vlad would consider this worthwhile given the likely economic and material/manpower cost?

Small beer in the grand scheme, although Russian armour does seem particularly susceptible to modern AT weaponry.

Somewhere in the fine print of the many warnings regarding mutual assured destruction there is reference to targeting the factories where weapons are manufactured . Small detail , but the Devil can be hidden in the details.

It seems the drone attacks are getting to them as well and they are putting protection in place on their tanks.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ears-in-crimea