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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Pali 1st Mar 2022 05:37


Originally Posted by NAROBS (Post 11192523)

Even after absorbing this info, I still wonder why Russia had to invade Ukraine now, as I understand that Ukrainian membership of NATO is effectively barred by that country having an on going border dispute. The issue was effectively settled when Russia took Crimea and Donbass in 2014. So why go further ?

Any statements about "NATO is closing to Russian borders" thus endangering security of Russia is a mere smoke screen. The real reason is the fact that country after country escaped out of the grip of this shrinking empire. Security is only a secondary thought. The key word is domination. They simply wanted to overthrow current government and install Yanukovich as a puppet leader and renew the old glory step by step.

If you really want to understand the doctrine of Russian imperialism just study the tsar's titles listed in the constitution of 1906, grab the map and locate all the aforementioned duchies, principalities and lands of interest. You will find the territory of many subdued non-Russian nations which simply wanted to escape the empire but in the Russian thinking it is Russia, period.

Art. 37:
By the Grace of God, We, NN, Emperor and Autocrat of All the Russias, Moscow, Kiev, Vladimir, Novgorod; Tsar of Kazan, Tsar of Astrakhan, Tsar of Poland, Tsar of Siberia, Tsar of Chersonese Taurian, Tsar of Georgia; Lord of Pskov and Grand Prince of Smolensk, Lithuania, Volhynia, Podolia, Finland; Prince of Estland, Livland, Courland, Semigalia, Samogitia, Belostok, Karelia, Tver, Yugra, Perm, Vyatka, Bolgar and others; Lord and Grand Prince of Nizhny Novgorod, Chernigov, Ryazan, Polotsk, Rostov, Yaroslavl, Beloozero, Udoria, Obdoria, Kondia, Vitebsk, Mstislav, and all of the northern countries Master; and Lord of Iberia, Kartli, and Kabardia lands and Armenian provinces; hereditary Sovereign and ruler of the Circassian and Mountainous Princes and of others; Lord of Turkestan; Heir of Norway; Duke of Schleswig-Holstein, Stormarn, Dithmarschen, and Oldenburg, and others, and others, and others.

Putin thinks of himself as a successor of tsars and considers any questioning of the original scope of empire as an insult.

tartare 1st Mar 2022 05:52

There's something particularly horrible about armoured battles.
The immense forces involved - the heat and mangling of really thick steel - God - you'd never get me anywhere near a tank.

oldmansquipper 1st Mar 2022 07:54


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11192563)
There's something particularly horrible about armoured battles.
The immense forces involved - the heat and mangling of really thick steel - God - you'd never get me anywhere near a tank.


With you on that I’m sure, but….


If Vlad continues with his replay of the 39-45 cup, they may well get near to you.

tartare 1st Mar 2022 08:12

Well, I'm hoping he doesn't wheel out those damned fractional orbital bombardment things - and lob a bomb around the south pole to Sydney!

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 08:21


At the moment, military pilots from Ukraine are in Poland. Today they receive 29 Polish MiG-29s. With full weapons and electronics. 🇵🇱
#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #StopRussia #StandingWithUkraine
Two thoughts spring to mind. First, if push comes to shove, would Poland allow them to be operated from their airfields? Second, what impact does this have on Poland's air policing etc commitments?

fab777 1st Mar 2022 08:24

This is from a Ukrainian telegram account, so may be not accurate, but still, it raises some hopes that reason may prevail (google translation from ukrainian):

"Defenders of Odessa waited for two days for the landing of the occupiers, but the enemy did not come. Maybe that's why the riot on the ship. Details of the failed landing operation to capture Odessa ❗️❗️ They told some details of yesterday's failed attempt at a naval landing "directly to Odessa". At the same time, enemy helicopters and a large number of UAVs were flying in the bay. ro There was a real revolt on Russian ships: Russian men refused to obey orders and storm the coast of the Slavic Russian-speaking city."

Hope this is true...

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 08:25


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11192525)
That Russian convoy moving to Kyiv is now 64km long!
Oh for a couple of fully loaded A-10s... what a Turkey shoot.

I'd wager your Hog pilot would be looking longingly at these pics...

I think the Ukrainians would have some success with artillery, if it could be directed well enough. Drop a round every hundred yards or so along the road - bound to hit something.

Also I did note in those satellite pics that the Ukrainians had failed to drop some of the bridges. A priority surely?

NutLoose 1st Mar 2022 08:29

Bloody hell, its not 29 Mig 29's


In a move likely aimed at increasing pressure on Europe to act, the Ukrainian parliament on Monday tweeted that Europe was sending 70 fighter planes to Ukraine, including 28 MiG-29s from Poland, 12 from Slovakia and 16 from Bulgaria, along with 14 Su-25s from Bulgaria.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-pil...lxEPNEHMJSdFEO


European Union foreign policy chief Josep Burrell said Sunday that individual EU countries had agreed to donate Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine to help it defend itself against Russia's invasion, and Ukraine's parliament said Monday that Bulgaria, Poland, and Slovakia had agreed to give the country more than 70 MiG-29s and Su-25s. A Ukrainian government official told Politico Monday that Ukrainian pilots were already in Poland to start the process of taking control of the 28 MiG-29s they are expecting to be donated. (Joseph Trevithick at The Drive explains why he's skeptical.)

"The potential transfer of older Russian-made planes to be used in combat against Russian forces could be the most significant moment yet in a wave of promised arms transfers over the past 24 hours that includes thousands of anti-armor rockets, machine guns, artillery, and other equipment," Politico reports. But representatives from Poland and Slovakia did not respond to Politico's request for confirmation and Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said Monday he had rejected Ukraine's request for fighter jets.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-...lxEPNEHMJSdFEO

Deadpan they had stopped flying the Mig29's and were replacing them

https://defence24.com/mig-29-and-su-...unched-by-2022

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 08:29


Originally Posted by fab777 (Post 11192616)
This is from a Ukrainian telegram account, so may be not accurate, but still, it raises some hopes that reason may prevail (google translation from ukrainian):

"Defenders of Odessa waited for two days for the landing of the occupiers, but the enemy did not come. Maybe that's why the riot on the ship. Details of the failed landing operation to capture Odessa ❗️❗️ They told some details of yesterday's failed attempt at a naval landing "directly to Odessa". At the same time, enemy helicopters and a large number of UAVs were flying in the bay. ro There was a real revolt on Russian ships: Russian men refused to obey orders and storm the coast of the Slavic Russian-speaking city."

Hope this is true...

Sounds a bit dubious, like the Ghost of Kiev. But who cares - anything to cast doubt into the mind of your average Russian conscript. Circulating stories about Russian forces rebelling could help stir things up...

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 08:32


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11192618)

Any L159 owners fancy an outing? The International Brigade could have its own air force!

NutLoose 1st Mar 2022 08:42

Snake Island soldiers were captured and not killed.

https://news.yahoo.com/snake-island-...153821884.html

trim it out 1st Mar 2022 08:44


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11192617)
I think the Ukrainians would have some success with artillery, if it could be directed well enough. Drop a round every hundred yards or so along the road - bound to hit something.

You make a good point about the use of artillery. During the 2014 Crimea scrap there was quite a bit of enthusiastic observance from NATO gunner types as to the TTPs of Russian artillery so I assume there is something similar going on now. I remember this dit being mentioned a few times.

Fortunately, gunnery is not quite the dark art some (including those in the Gunners) seem to think it is and a linear mission along an arbitrary line is simply a case of some basic computer maths. Made even easier if it's along a road as you can work it out from a map, you only need someone (on the ground or in the air) to observe the rounds are landing effectively. Biggest constraint is probably getting the guns into position without getting shwacked.

Beamr 1st Mar 2022 08:51

Even better if you happen to possess smart munitions or a grad upgrade kit. Have the target marked and shoot it somewhere in the general area of the enemy and you are doing pretty well. Coming down in a steep angle it'll be a pain for the ones in the MBT/APC.

Imagegear 1st Mar 2022 08:52

Here we go:

Ukraine will receive from Its European partners 70 military aircraft of the MiG-29 and Su-25 classes. This is reported by the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

At the same time, they will be allowed to be based in Europe so that our pilots can fly from there.
"Our partners are handing over The MiG-29 and Su-25 to us! If necessary, they will be able to be based at Polish airfields, from which Ukrainian pilots will perform combat missions,
  • Bulgaria (MiG-29) – 16 units
  • Bulgaria (Su-25) – 14 units
  • Poland (MiG-29) – 28 units
  • Slovakia (MiG-29) – 12 units

IG

Beamr 1st Mar 2022 08:54


Originally Posted by Imagegear (Post 11192635)
they will be able to be based at Polish airfields, from which Ukrainian pilots will perform combat missions

Why am I being a bit worried how Putin will translate this...

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 08:58


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11192640)
Why am I being a bit worried how Putin will translate this...

Russian aircraft as using Belarusian airfields so fair's fair. I'm sure he'll understand...

NutLoose 1st Mar 2022 09:06

Someone's losing a lot of armour,.



..

trim it out 1st Mar 2022 09:08


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11192634)
Even better if you happen to possess smart munitions or a grad upgrade kit. Have the target marked and shoot it somewhere in the general area of the enemy and you are doing pretty well. Coming down in a steep angle it'll be a pain for the ones in the MBT/APC.

From what I have seen so far, the only guided weapons being used are the man portable anti tank type and probably anything air delivered. I'm not too familiar with Ukrainian arty so unsure if they have any guided systems.

Arthur1815 1st Mar 2022 09:24

Snake Island
 

Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11192628)
Snake Island soldiers were captured and not killed.

https://news.yahoo.com/snake-island-...153821884.html

Russian media showed them, or supposedly them, being fed and watered within a few hours, as well as being allowed to phone home to let family know they were very much alive. They claim there were 84 of them and that they surrendered almost immediately after the radio exchange. The truth is out there somewhere.

Mariner9 1st Mar 2022 09:57

From Lloyds List


UK bans port access to all Russian-linked vessels


It has been indicated that the move to ban Russian vessels was part of a broader package of further sanctions, the details of which will be released shortly

“The maritime sector is fundamental to international trade and we must play our part in restricting Russia's economic interests and holding the Russian government to account,” Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said in a letter to all UK ports.

Further detailed sanctions against Russian shipping were being drawn up following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he added.

Describing the military operation as an “unprovoked, premeditated attack against a sovereign democratic state,” Mr Shapps said the UK government “does not consider it appropriate for Russian vessels to continue to enter UK ports.”

He advised ports to refuse any ship they believe to be owned, controlled, chartered or operated by any person connected with Russia or a sanctioned person or flagged or registered in Russia.

While the letter said support would be given, it did not detail how ports would impose the guidance or identify Russian links.

There are currently 16 Russian flagged vessels in UK waters and four vessels owned by sanctioned Russian operator Sovcomflot, according to latest Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data.

“The maritime sector is fundamental to international trade and we must play our part in restricting Russia’s economic interests and holding the Russian government to account,” the letter explained, adding that legislation would follow.

The UK move follows protests in the Orkney Islands over Sovcomflot’s 106,000 dwt aframax tanker NS Challenger (IMO: 9299680) arriving at the Flotta Terminal.

The US has imposed financial restrictions on Sovcomflot, Russia’s largest shipping company, as part of the broader sanction moves to hold Moscow accountable for its military incursion into Ukraine.

The letter issued by Mr Shapps indicated that the move to ban Russian vessels was part of a broader package of further sanctions, the details of which will be released shortly.


peter we 1st Mar 2022 09:58


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11192634)
Even better if you happen to possess smart munitions or a grad upgrade kit. Have the target marked and shoot it somewhere in the general area of the enemy and you are doing pretty well. Coming down in a steep angle it'll be a pain for the ones in the MBT/APC.

Poland and Ukraine jointly developed laser guided artillery shells a few years ago.

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 10:04


Originally Posted by NAROBS (Post 11192679)

Nothing to see here. The Buffs are here on a routine deployment - have been at RAF Fairford for a couple of weeks.

henra 1st Mar 2022 10:17


Originally Posted by NAROBS (Post 11192663)
Bombardier Challenge 650 carrying out extended, dog-legged race-track course from Black Sea coast of Romania (Near Constanta) to northern Romania. As usual, no departure and destination or registration details on Flight Radar ADS-B
WOnder how long before someone or something has a pop at one of those.

As long as they are firmly within Romainian Airspace and the flights are approved by Romanian ATC and/or Military Air Surveillance no one will have a pop at them.

Fonsini 1st Mar 2022 10:29

It’s getting serious now - Russian oligarch Alexandr Orlov canceled by UK.

Russian Oligarch Banned from UK TV

Pali 1st Mar 2022 10:44


Originally Posted by Imagegear (Post 11192635)
Here we go:

Ukraine will receive from Its European partners 70 military aircraft of the MiG-29 and Su-25 classes. This is reported by the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

At the same time, they will be allowed to be based in Europe so that our pilots can fly from there.
  • Bulgaria (MiG-29) – 16 units
  • Bulgaria (Su-25) – 14 units
  • Poland (MiG-29) – 28 units
  • Slovakia (MiG-29) – 12 units

IG


Minister obrany SR Jaroslav Naď odmietol informáciu kolujúcu internetom, ktorú včera večer zverejnila na svojom twitterovom účte aj Verchovnaja rada Ukrajiny, že by malo Slovensko dať Ukrajine svoje bojové lietadlá MiG-29.
Translation:
Defence minister of Slovakia Jaroslav Naď denied the information circulating around internet and which was published on Twitter by Verchovnaja rada Ukrajiny that Slovakia is going to donate its Mig-29 fighters to Ukraine.


However some intentional fog of war on the topic cannot be excluded...
On 26th February minister announced that Mig-29 fighters will be phased out very soon. Slovakia is training pilots in US to take over 14 F-16 Block 70. Those are currently being built in Greenville, with delivery anticipated in the mid-2020s.

Cat Techie 1st Mar 2022 10:45


Originally Posted by Fonsini (Post 11192700)
It’s getting serious now - Russian oligarch Alexandr Orlov canceled by UK.

Russian Oligarch Banned from UK TV

Simples!
Sorry to all those that don't know the advert puns. Those that know the pun will get it.

Beamr 1st Mar 2022 10:50


Originally Posted by Pali (Post 11192713)
Translation:
Defence minister of Slovakia Jaroslav Naď denied the information circulating around internet and which was published on Twitter by Verchovnaja rada Ukrajiny that Slovakia is going to donate its Mig-29 fighters to Ukraine.


However some intentional fog of war on the topic cannot be excluded...
On 26th February minister announced that Mig-29 fighters will be phased out very soon. Slovakia is training pilots in US to take over 14 F-16 Block 70. Those are currently being built in Greenville, with delivery anticipated in the mid-2020s.

I have a strong feeling that if Slovakia would suddenly loose those Mig29's there would be some acquaintancies that would be able to provide them with loaner F16's in a rather rapid pace.

HOVIS 1st Mar 2022 10:58

Russian missile hits government building in Kharkiv.
Not pleasant to see, there are obviously casualties. 🙁

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-i...osion-12554625

Beamr 1st Mar 2022 11:03

there are news that Belarusian forces would've attacked Ukraine. I am hoping these are fake news, for the other option means this war just escalated.

UNIAN: On Tuesday, March 1, in the Chernihiv region, local residents filmed the movement of occupiers' equipment.
As UNIAN reported, Belarusian troops entered the Chernihiv region . The information was confirmed by Vitaly Kirillov, a representative of the regional department of the defense forces "North". "Belarus has entered the war. Belarusian troops have entered the Chernihiv region," the message says.

https://www.unian.net/war/na-chernig...-11723554.html

POLITICO: Belarus joins Russia’s war on Ukraine
Minsk sends troops to Chernihiv region, north of the capital Kyiv. Belarus joined the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Tuesday, with the country’s troops entering the Chernihiv region in northern Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities confirmed.
In a tweet posted on Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, confirmed earlier reports that Belarusian troops were on Ukrainian soil.
“Belarusian troops have entered Chernihiv region. The information was confirmed to the public by Vitaliy Kyrylov, spokesman for the North Territorial Defense Forces. More details later,” the tweet said.
https://www.politico.eu/article/bela...a-war-ukraine/


NutLoose 1st Mar 2022 11:24

https://www.politico.eu/article/russ...aine-invasion/


Russia used the potent vacuum bomb during its invasion of Ukraine, Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, told reporters on Monday night after a meeting with U.S. lawmakers.

A vacuum bomb, also called a thermobaric weapon, works by taking in oxygen to create powerful, high-temperature explosions. If used in a civilian setting, such an attack could constitute a war crime.

“They used the vacuum bomb today,” Markarova said.
The bomb destroyed a Ukrainian army base in the northeastern town of Okhtyrka, killing 70 soldiers, Sumy region administrative chief Dmytro Zhyvytskyy said on his Telegram channel. Images from the scene showed the middle third of a main building gutted by the blast.

Okhtyrka Mayor Pavel Kuzmenko described the weapon used in the attack as a vacuum bomb.

Ukrainian media have carried eyewitness video of the blast, which had a timestamp of 5:32 p.m. on Monday.

In Washington, the White House said it had not independently verified the incidents.

“I don’t have any confirmation of that,” said White House spokesperson Jen Psaki. “We have seen the reports. If that were true, it would potentially be a war crime.”
Video of the blast
https://t.me/nexta_live/18758

SLXOwft 1st Mar 2022 11:33


Originally Posted by Arthur1815 (Post 11192661)
Russian media showed them, or supposedly them, being fed and watered within a few hours, as well as being allowed to phone home to let family know they were very much alive. They claim there were 84 of them and that they surrendered almost immediately after the radio exchange. The truth is out there somewhere.

I suspect a lot of misinformation on this as other subjects, I was going to post the following yesterday evening but felt I had posted enough.

...and the BBC is reportinged a facebook post by the Ukranian Naval Command that the the defenders of Snake Island were 'illegally' taken prisoner by the Russians while being evacuated by a non-combatant civilian ship carrying out a humanitarian mission.

(in Ukrainian)

"As for the Marines and frontier guards captured by the Russian occupiers on Snake Island. We are very happy to learn that our brothers are alive and well! But Russian propaganda is trying to promote the "news" that the Ukrainian authorities have "forgotten" and "buried" their subordinates. At the same time, the Marines bravely twice repulsed the attacks of the Russian occupiers. Due to the lack of БК, they were unable to continue defending the island." Courtesy of g@@gle translate.

БК = ? Combat/fighting something?

NutLoose 1st Mar 2022 11:33


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is now addressing the European Parliament in Brussels.

He is appearing via video link from an unknown location in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.

Mr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was "giving away its best people" for its desire to be treated as equals.

Discussing the missile attacks on the second-largest city Kharkiv, he said dozens of people have been killed and added: "This is the price of freedom."

He accused Russia of targeting Ukrainian children and said 16 had been killed yesterday.

The European Parliament translator became emotional as he translated Mr Zelenskyy's words.
:( Damn.....

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-r...dates-12541713




БК = ? Combat/fighting something?
Ammunition?

jolihokistix 1st Mar 2022 11:42

“Look!”
It looks as if Putin is showing what will happen to Kiyf, by lobbing various things onto Karkhiv.

henra 1st Mar 2022 11:50


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11192745)
“Look!”
It looks as if Putin is showing what will happen to Kiyf, by lobbing various things onto Karkhiv.

Knowing that in Kharkiv, the majority of the population is Russian- speaking, i.e. the alleged suppressed poor population that needed to be liberated. I wonder how this is seen at home?
Somehow these actions appear more and more desperate.

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 11:54


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11192748)
I wonder how this is seen at home?

They most likely aren't, or are being blamed on the Ukrainians.

Video Mixdown 1st Mar 2022 12:07

I sincerely hope they have a very special welcome planned for that convoy.

fab777 1st Mar 2022 12:11

Were are our russian friends when we need their insight? Vitek ? A Van?

Gone?

skridlov 1st Mar 2022 12:21

The least worst outcome now would be the concession of the Donbas region as notional "independent republics" - probably including the entire littoral to the SW enabling a contiguous land route to Crimea - and withdrawal of the Nato application pro tem. The alternative will be total destruction of Ukraine and, quite likely, the introduction of tactical nukes - and probably a nuclear ("nucular" in American speak) WW3.

Following that appalling necessity, a united world, minus China of course, could proceed with the progressive destruction of the Russian economy which would almost certainly cause Putin to fall by one mechanism or another.

Having just watched the Eurocrats congratulating one another on their moral stature I fail to see how the conflict can be successfully pursued without catastrophic escalation, no matter how many condemnations are issued. As for "no-fly zones", far simpler to declare war on Russia directly since that would be the inevitable outcome.

NutLoose 1st Mar 2022 12:30

Off Facebook.


We have received some extremely shocking and sad news from Ukraine this morning.

Colonel Oleksandr “Grey Wolf” Oksanchenko who was the Ukrainian Air Force Flanker display pilot between 2013-2018 has lost his life on Friday night when his jet was shot down over Kyiv by Russian S-400 Triumph Air Defence Missile System.

Col. Oksanchenko was not only a very experienced pilot who won a number of awards for the best flying display at many events across Europe, but he was also a true fan of airshows. Despite leaving the active service and joining the reserves in late 2018 he volunteered to remain in the Ukrainian Flanker Solo Display Team as a coach/advisor and travelled with the team during the 2019 display season which was also the last airshow season for the team.

He came out of retirement to defend his country from the Russian invasion and paid the highest price. Col. Oksanchenko was posthumously awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine by the president of the Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Blue skies sir and thank you for all your amazing displays!

#StayStrongUkraine #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦🇺🇦


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