I see Billy Nomates is having a Kip at the Olympics.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9403d12dc.jpeg

Sky update, Russian field hospital believed to have been built and blood supplies moved into the area.

https://news.sky.com/story/the-final...raine-12533199

Said kip coincided with the Ukraine team marching in!

It seems Putin and Xi, leaders of two "democratic" countries, have signed a mutual defence pact. Echos perhaps of the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact? Operation Barbarossa comes to mind.

Strange, Russia does not seem to realise that China is its key strategic rival. Instead they are fixated on some Cold War retro westward view.
If Russia burns all it's bridges to the west life for China will be made even easier.

Very interesting. Even Putins own are turning against him.


https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1490200153009053699

White House saying Russia could invade Ukraine within the next few days - meanwhile the DoD not being optimistic about Ukraine’s chances…

https://www.mediaite.com/news/gen-ma...thin-72-hours/

Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly told lawmakers during closed-door briefings this week that if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine takes place, then Kyiv could fall within 72 hours.

Fox News White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich reported Saturdaoy that multiple congressional sources told her that Milley also warned that a full-scale invasion could cause “4,000 Russian troop deaths and 15,000 Ukrainian troop deaths.”

Looking at the fact that Ukraine has more than 250.000 Soldiers and that the Russian forces which would invade are (all included) ~120.000 troops and would have to move into foreign territory and ensure logistics and supplies (which ususally requires quite a sizeable proportion of the troops) this would be genuinely disappointing.
Bombing Kiev is one thing but permanently seizing is a whole different beast.

It’s only about 90 miles from Kiev to the Belarus border, most of the army will be in the east facing Russia.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia...vasion-ukraine

Northern Route

Russia could advance toward Kiev along two routes. The first would be 150 miles by road through Novye Yurkovichi, Russia; Chernihiv, Ukraine; and into Kiev, Ukraine. The second would be a 200-mile thrust through Troebortnoe, Russia; Konotop, Ukraine; Nizhyn, Ukraine; and into Kiev.6

If Minsk were to acquiesce to the use of its road and rail networks, the Russian army could outflank Ukrainian defenses around Kiev and approach them from the rear via a 150-mile axis of advance from Mazur, Belarus, to Korosten, Ukraine, and finally to Kiev.

Buffs deploying in to RAF Fairford later this week, according to multiple rumour mills. Things are warming up..

A quick glance at Google maps suggests there aren't that many road crossings along the Ukraine-Belarus border. There's also the not inconsiderable problem of the Pripet marshes.

Not impossible, but not exactly easy either.

dead_pan,

Frozen and traversable in February…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...raphy-weather/

Taking Kharkiv would be an apparently minor incursion, potentially even deniable, yet would make continued Ukrainian defence of the Donetsk-Luhansk area impracticable.

Amphibious landings in the Odessa area would create a link to Transnistria ('invited by the patriots of') and have the dual effect of cutting Ukraine off from the coast, and gaining more leverage over Moldova (who are currently west-inclined).

The do-nothing action has already done something, i.e. gained full control over Belarus.

A direct thrust for Kiev is not necessarily the objective.

Would a direct thrust to Kiev not be very costly with the amount of anti armour weaponary now at their disposal, I would imagine they also have plans in place to slow the advance to a crawl by denying the road routes.

No need for that, everyone knows that the Russians have them. Even the Russians don't deny it.

Don't think that they are going to see military action. Not as a reaction over an invasion of Ukraine.
Just precautionary measure to ensure Vlad' doesn't do something stupid regarding NATO territory.

No, I don't think so either. That said, given the apparent short notice and haste of the deployment (all necessary support flights arriving today), it does suggest it wasn't one of the routine pre-planned BTF deployments.

I wouldn't be surprised if the US doesn't move in other stuff - at the very least it will be an invaluable opportunity to test their kit in a contested EW environment, given reports of Russia moving their specialist equipment into Belarus etc.

Agreed. That is a great opportunity to get a clearer picture of the Russian EW capabilities. I'm surprised that there are not even more 'Sniffer' assets sent over to gather as much intel over their equipment as possible. Maybe they sent the BUFF as bait. One has to use the opportuities as they present themselves :ok: