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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

ORAC 14th Nov 2021 16:35

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...us-crisis.html

British special forces are put on alert to be deployed to Ukraine as size of Red Army on border swells to 100,000 troops and Russian Navy tracks US warships in the Black Sea

ORAC 14th Nov 2021 16:42

Reminds me of the false flag operation whilst started the invasion of Poland at the start of WWII…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-reach-EU.html

EXCLUSIVE: Poland is braced for major attack by 'weaponised' migrants from Belarus TONIGHT

Poland is braced for a major assault by migrants on its frontier with Belarus tonight after receiving intelligence of a huge build up of enemy troops.

Polish Border Force guards claim their Belarusian counterparts are issuing the thousands of stranded migrants with instructions, equipment and weapons to force their way into the EU.

The attack is believed to be planned for frontier at Kuznica, one of two main crossing points from Poland to Belarus……

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...er-2021-11-14/

Putin offers help to resolve crisis at Belarus and EU border

MOSCOW, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was ready to help resolve a migrant crisis on the border between Belarus and Poland, RIA news agency reported on Sunday citing an interview on a state TV channel.

"We are ready to help it by all means if of course anything would depend on us," Putin was quoted as saying…..

NutLoose 14th Nov 2021 17:53

it’s almost like Cuba and one feels it’s all down to Putin with the crackpot in Belarus. The difference this time is I can see it escalating rapidly as the west weakened by defence cuts needs to show they will use everything at their disposal, whoever is advising Putin needs to be shoved up against a wall..
the stupid fact in all of this is Russia has grown fat on selling energy to the west, something I think will be reversed in the future as we all withdraw from buying their gas etc.




​​​​​​…

tonker 14th Nov 2021 18:51

Nothing to do with us. Let the EUs “shared sovereignty” deal with it.

ORAC 14th Nov 2021 18:57

That worked soooo well in 1938/39….

However, I feel it’s more like 1914, where no one expected a war and afterwards spent decades trying to work out the complex reasons it happened..

Herod 14th Nov 2021 22:30


Originally Posted by tonker (Post 11142122)
Nothing to do with us. Let the EUs “shared sovereignty” deal with it.


Not that simple. Do you think for a moment that they will all stop in Poland? Most will head for France and the Channel. Then it ceases to be the EU's problem. Suddenly it's ours.

ORAC 15th Nov 2021 12:14


Less Hair 15th Nov 2021 13:32

Russia would burn many bridges to the west if they invade again. No more hard currency income for raw materials and some seriously upgraded NATO eastern flank next.

NutLoose 15th Nov 2021 15:04

Nato warns of Russian aggression against the Ukraine

https://a.msn.com/r/2/AAQJ9CR?m=en-gb&ocid=News

Well if the Russian soldier shown in the photo is anything to go by, we have nothing to worry about, those little grey rubber pimples on his gloves are to stop his hands freezing in cold weather to objects such as the metal of his weapon etc, so he is wearing them on the wrong hands lol. the pimples should be on his palms.

fitliker 15th Nov 2021 18:31

https://www.theweek.in/news/world/20...sia-livid.html

Turkish drones ? Whatever next ?

ROC man 15th Nov 2021 20:32

Following on from cables being removed off Norway Daily Telegraph this evening:

US slams 'reckless' Kremlin for blowing up satellite forcing space station astronauts to take cover

Astronauts on the International Space Station were forced to shelter in their re-entry vehicles in case of impact
BySarah Knapton, SCIENCE EDITOR and Nick Allen WASHINGTON15 November 2021 • 5:29p There have been warnings from the US military that the Kremlin is looking at potentially attacking US satellites in future.In the Russian anti-satellite test, known as an ASAT, it blew up one of its own defunct spy satellites.

It created thousands of pieces of space debris, some of which floated toward the space station.

Ned Price, the US state department spokesman, said: "Earlier today, the Russian Federation recklessly conducted a destructive satellite test of a direct ascent anti-satellite missile against one of its own satellites.

"The test has so far generated over 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller orbital debris that now threaten the interests of all nations."
He added: "Russia's dangerous and irresponsible behavior jeopardises the long-term sustainability of outer space and clearly demonstrates that Russia's (claims) to oppose the weaponisation of space are disingenuous and hypocritical." Space tracking experts confirmed that the former Soviet Cosmos-1408 intelligence satellite which was in orbit just several miles above the ISS was destroyed.

Seradata, the space intelligence experts, said that a missile had launched from the Plesetsk site in northern Russia at 6.30am on Monday.

The US is particularly reliant, compared to Russia or China, on satellites, including for military communications.

Last year Dan Coats, then the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, testified to Congress that Russia, and China, were “increasingly considering attacks against satellite systems as part of their future warfare doctrine.”

NutLoose 15th Nov 2021 22:50

Paras and SAS on standby

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...us-crisis.html

There are now more Russian troops on the border than in the U.K. military in total.

Lonewolf_50 16th Nov 2021 01:53


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11142692)
Paras and SAS on standby

There are now more Russian troops on the border than in the U.K. military in total.

Quantity has a quality all its own. (Someone famous said that).
For those interested:
Spoiler
 
There are some ways to look at this, and one way is: that's a lot of targets.
I hope it doesn't come to that, and I hope the hot line from Washington to Moscow is being used.

ORAC 18th Nov 2021 14:42

Both of these should ring alarm bells….

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...gh-2021-11-18/

Putin says West not taking Russia's warnings on 'red lines' seriously enough

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...rather-winter/

An energy crisis is coming, but I’d rather be in Brexit Britain than the EU

Europe’s energy crunch has returned with a winter vengeance. We are back to warnings of power rationing and industrial stoppage, a looming disaster for the European Commission and the British government alike.

Vladimir Putin has tightened his stranglehold on gas, driving up futures contracts for January by 40pc in barely a week. Prices are nearing the levels of September’s panic. The difference this time is that the underlying geopolitical crisis is an order of magnitude more serious…..

Mr Putin has already prepared the ground for the perfect energy squeeze. He took advantage of the world’s post-pandemic gas shortage over the late summer to withhold the top-up flows needed to replenish Europe’s depleted storage.

Other than short bursts of extra supply, almost as a tease, Gazprom has been delivering minimum contract volumes. Inventories are currently 52pc in Austria, 61pc in Holland, 69pc in Germany at a time of year when they should be near 100pc.

The Kremlin is now closing the trap. Energy analysts ICIS says Gazprom booked “nothing” for December through the Mallnow metering point on the Polish-Belarus pipeline. Europe is facing a supply-deficit of 32m cubic meters a day……

Whatever Mr Putin’s plans for Ukraine, possibly seizure of the Donbass and the Black Sea coast as far as Odessa, a parallel showdown with Brussels over the Baltic Nord Stream 2 pipeline looks certain to escalate.

German regulators have suspended the certification process because Gazprom was trying to get around EU monopoly laws. They had no choice: a stitch-up had become impossible. “Poland would have issued an immediate injunction to stop it at the European Court,” said Prof Riley…..

Mr Putin will not back down lightly since Nord Stream 2 is central to his drive to alter the strategic balance of power in Europe, and overturn the post-Cold War settlement. The chances are that he will keep stoking the gas crisis until a frozen Europe begs for mercy, or tears itself apart.

Thierry Bros, a former energy security planner for the French government, said Brussels has stumbled blindly into a Kremlin ambush. “Putin set his master plan in motion last July and August. I didn’t believe it at first but now there can be no doubt. He told us we’d be getting more gas in October but it never came, and November has been worse, and now there’s going to be nothing through Mallnow,” he said……

The Government made a bet that the UK could always, and easily, obtain liquefied natural gas on the global market. But this country now finds itself in a bidding war for scarce LNG supplies with China, which is armed with $3.2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves and has ordered officials to secure energy as a matter of regime survival. The Asia spot price has just hit the once unthinkable level of $32 per MBBtu, if you can get it.

If the Government has not already created an “energy war room” with emergency powers, it should do so forthwith……

The UK could follow Japan and switch some gas plants to oil, currently trading at half the price of spot LNG ($180 equivalent). It could in extremis book LNG cargoes and hold the tankers at anchor as emergency storage. The Government could extend the life of the Hunterston B nuclear plant for a few months until we got through the worst.

Clive Moffatt, an expert on energy security, said it is already too late. “There’s no short-term fix to this. The grid is going to have to shut down industrial gas users. That is the only way to keep hospitals open and homes heated,” he said……

Fonsini 18th Nov 2021 17:35

I think the Russian annexation of Crimea and its direct involvement in the Donbas conflict caught NATO off-guard and served to remind Europe that the Russians are somewhat insane and not the cuddly creatures we all hoped for post-1991. Lines are being drawn in the sands of various beaches, war is never very far away, and Putin has no fear of the west.

I’d stock up on toilet paper, you can never be too sure.

West Coast 18th Nov 2021 17:42


Originally Posted by Fonsini (Post 11144114)
I think the Russian annexation of Crimea and its direct involvement in the Donbas conflict caught NATO off-guard and served to remind Europe that the Russians are somewhat insane and not the cuddly creatures we all hoped for post-1991. Lines are being drawn in the sands of various beaches, war is never very far away, and Putin has no fear of the west.

I’d stock up on toilet paper, you can never be too sure.

Whether NATO was caught off guard is certainly open for debate, what however would have differed had they been laser focused?



minigundiplomat 18th Nov 2021 18:20

I’m sure the EU Army will be all over this. Nothing to see - move along.

Lordflasheart 18th Nov 2021 19:35

...
Judging by the amount of elint related activity, someone's got the wind up.

LFH
...

DirtyProp 18th Nov 2021 19:41

Coincidentally, Poland is willing to increase their military budget.

breakingdefense.com/2021/11/poland-pledges-major-new-defense-spending-is-it-real-or-political-hype

Less Hair 18th Nov 2021 19:51

NATO will make life harder for Russia. That's for sure. They've asked for it.


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