Originally Posted by langleybaston

This was one of 3 images in the post, two were for the same geographic region, and time, the other was for 2011, covering the detections of Ce137 from Fukushima.

We have seen previously models related directly to fallout from an accident at ZNPP, which were for a specific date and weather condition in 2021. That also assumed a failure of the ZNPP that is one of a spectrum of failures that may arise when criminal action is considered, instead of a simple loss of coolant.

The VVER 1000 have multiple protection systems for cooling to stop catastrophic failures, none cover the deliberate dismantlement of these by demolition charges by a criminal with intent to cause a catastrophe. The last two defences to a meltdown of the core getting to ground and water table are the crucible, and the concrete base of the structure, both which can be damaged and compromised by deliberate action. The spent fuel has it's own failure risks, and can cause its own level of catastrophic contamination.

NPP's don't fail as a nuclear explosion, none have to date, and they cannot under normal circumstances. Will assume that remains the case, but nothing stops the criminals placing a TNW in the same area to make a fashion statement, but that would be readily traceable as to source, the weapons and power plant radioactive materials have characteristic elements that can be determined. Such a case would be traceable back to Russia, and in fact doesn't need to be, any nuclear explosion in Ukraine is of Russian cause, no other exists. That however would alter the spread of radioactive contamination.

For a melt down case, ground contamination gives both water contamination and particulate contamination, water is spread by the local watercourses that exist, and that gets a mess into the Black Sea eventually, Turkey, Romania etc, and potentially into the Mediterranean. Contamination can be from soluble forms or by suspended particulates, the soluble case can spread everywhere, the particulate will have a shorter distance of spread before particulates will come out of suspension.

Hydrogen explosions or steam explosions are least likely in the current condition of the NPP operational status, but are not ruled out completely, we have never had a criminal caused destruction of containment or spent fuel storage. With Chernobyl, the explosion ejected contaminants into the lower atmosphere, contaminating the area around the NPP. the fire spread contaminants into the mid and upper atmosphere, and soluble contaminants were carried within the upper air mass rapidly, (the alarm on the disaster was raised by the Scandinavians who detected rapidly rising levels of Cs 134 and 137, after local NPP workers were detected as being contaminated arriving at work 3 days after the first explosion. 10% of the total fallout of Chernobyl ended up in Nordic countries, thousands of km north and NW of the destroyed reactor. CS 134 has a 2 year half life, 137 has a 30 year half life, and remains the main contaminant in Sweden and other nordic countries.

With the spread of the contaminants into the waterways, carriage of soluble contaminants will occur through evaporation and transport as part of the normal water cycle in the lower and upper atmosphere, and depositing down range is dependent on the physics of the water cycle, and that is a pretty complex matter to determine, any model would need to be a statistical spread as many of the mechanisms that are involved are independent, and stochastic, not easy to model a single solution.

The main point is, there is no good news in criminal destruction of a NPP; if any single act has ever needed to be considered a crime against humanity, that would be a candidate. Nearly 40 years later, contamination from Chernobyl is still causing higher cancer rates in nordic countries than background, such criminal actions don't just harm todays generation, they harm future generations.

Personal opinion: it is time to throw Russia out of the UN, suspending their membership in total, and to stop fluffing about over Art 27(3) and get UNSC action without Russia's vote, they are prohibited by Art 27(3) of voting, yet the UNSC members lack the spine to act accordingly. Wasn't always that way, but it has become the norm, so the blame for the potential global disaster that may exceed Chernobyl and Fukushima stains all UNSC members. A pox on all their houses too.

Originally Posted by NutLoose

How the mighty Russian army has fallen.



https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/st...67226768412674

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Damned good gun and an excellent sniper weapon, very accurate.

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Damned good gun and an excellent sniper weapon, very accurate.



​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...44331237212161

Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker