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Russia, Ukraine, and possible unpleasantries

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Russia, Ukraine, and possible unpleasantries

Old 21st Jan 2022, 00:50
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Russia, Ukraine, and possible unpleasantries

I know there is a cohort of strong Putin supporters here, but this looks to be getting serious and his shtick might be going over for the home side, but maybe it is time for him to stop playing with matches.

Lots of jaw-jaw going on at the moment as it should. Options, however, to give leverage to those talks seem limited in this scenario.

For those of you a little geographically nearer to the region what is the consensus?

Last edited by Uncle Fred; 24th Feb 2022 at 08:51.
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Old 21st Jan 2022, 07:49
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Looks like they just about have everything in place. All that's needed is some trigger incident to provide justification.

Remember Putins motto "не война не мир"
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Old 21st Jan 2022, 07:59
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Their recent list of unrealistic political demands gave away the fact that they are strategically bound for conflict.
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Old 21st Jan 2022, 08:47
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Fascinating how the agitation troops are ready again to spin doctor messages in this forum.
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Old 21st Jan 2022, 08:49
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Best we don't get involved.
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Old 21st Jan 2022, 10:32
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Putin is a bully, always was one. He was a KGB thug. He needs to be slapped down. You have to stand up to bullies, otherwise be prepared to be walked over.
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Old 21st Jan 2022, 14:02
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Best we don't get involved.
Everyone in Europe is involved, directly or indirectly. If you think the price of gas is high at present, wait till the bullets start flying ...
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Old 21st Jan 2022, 15:40
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A war isn't in anyone's interest. I have connections to Ukraine and have visited Russia but never lived in either. From talking to people, I would say that he will certainly cross the border and "annex" some of east Ukraine where there are ethnic Russians who would not provide any resistance. in a similar way to Crimea. The Ukrainians are taking it seriously. I've heard that they are going to call up all women between the ages of 18 and 60 for military service.
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Old 21st Jan 2022, 17:47
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Everyone in Europe is involved, directly or indirectly. If you think the price of gas is high at present, wait till the bullets start flying ...
We are Belgium with a nuclear deterrent.
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Old 21st Jan 2022, 18:37
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Vlad has to invade within the next few weeks otherwise the thawing ground will scupper the ground forces advances. Biden has mentioned limited incursions, so perhaps the story is already written. It would make little sense to invade all of Ukraine, but as others have mentioned the areas with ethnic Russian populations seem very vulnerable to annexation. ANY hot war will send the markets reeling and the promised massive price hikes in gas and oil will go exponential, at least for a period. The Nord Stream pipeline is apparently ready to go in operational terms, which is a large Damoclean sword hanging over Germany and to a lesser sense the UK. Russia has so many reserves of both oil and gas that in real terms it holds all the cards, especially as the Green movement has neutered the fossil fuelled and nuclear powered consumption in many euro-countries.

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Old 21st Jan 2022, 18:41
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“Instead of ignoring this nonsense … the U.S. accepts Putin’s agenda and runs to organize some meetings. Just like a frightened schoolboy who’s been bullied by an upperclassman.”

Alexei Navalny, jailed Russian opposition leader, on the Ukraine crisis in a Time magazine interview
He would say that, wouldn't he?
There was a meeting slated for today in Geneva between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Here's what I can glean from that, as they appear to have concluded.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...sions-liveblog


The United States has called on Russia to pull back thousands of troops it has massed near the border with Ukraine, warning any incursion would be met with a swift, severe and united response from the White House and its partners.

Moscow denies it is planning an attack, and demands that the US-headed NATO military alliance end activity in Eastern Europe and Ukraine and never embrace the former Soviet republic as a new member.
Guessing that leave the tension unresolved.

Our friends in the Great White North are stirring the pot (much to my amusement)
Canada will offer Ukraine a loan of up to $95.6m ($120m Canadian dollars) and is looking at other ways to support Kyiv as a crisis with Russia deepens, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said.
“This loan will help support Ukraine’s economic resilience,” Trudeau told a news conference, reiterating his condemnation of Russia’s moves to build up troops near the Ukrainian border.
He sidestepped questions about whether Canada would send weapons to Ukraine.
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Old 22nd Jan 2022, 02:56
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No usedtobeatc, but as Trotsky was reputed to have said: "You might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you. "

I am well aware of the feeble arguments of NATO having expanded to far to the east, but they were invited. Gee, I wonder why those invitations were extended...

Interesting how such events play out worth all the whirring gears. Was just reading an article in the Speccie about how Germany might side with Russia on this. Gerhard Schroeder, being the best asset Russia has had since Walter Ubrecht, has sown quite a following of the like minded--individuals now in positions of power in Germany.

You make good points SpringheelJack. Putin, of course, can try to destabilize the Ukraine in other ways such as cyber attacks and the like. Rather revanschist is he not?
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Old 22nd Jan 2022, 03:53
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Reports and video that UK has provided 2000 shoulder fired anti tank misiles to Ukraine.
Designed in 2002, are these misiles still in production? With a short rang of 600 meters, what impact on tactics would such a weapon have in this conflict?
Is this a large enough number to have an deterrent effect?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MBT_LAW


Mjb
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Old 22nd Jan 2022, 05:00
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I expect we'll send a strongly worded letter (as well as investing a few billions of hard earned tax payers dollars in a pretty well lost cause.)
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Old 22nd Jan 2022, 05:42
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Exactly this. We no longer have influence in the world to any great extent. We were already slipping down the league table before leaving the EU. Brexit has merely hastened our fall. Flogging a few bits and bobs to The Aussies to put on their subs ( most likely the crockery) isn't going to alter that.
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Old 22nd Jan 2022, 06:12
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An important aspect of the context that I don’t see being referred to, is the fact that Ukraine is totally split ethnically, politically and linguistically. The East, abutting Russia, is overwhelmingly “Russian” in its sympathies, while the Western half is overwhelmingly “European” in its outlook.

So the Russians are operating on the border, and within their already established bases in eastern Ukraine, in a highly pro Russian environment. The Ukraine army, on its own border, is operating in a very unsympathetic setting, to the local population it’s the Ukrainian army that’s already an occupying force.
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Old 22nd Jan 2022, 06:23
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Originally Posted by mickjoebill View Post
Reports and video that UK has provided 2000 shoulder fired anti tank misiles to Ukraine.
Designed in 2002, are these misiles still in production? With a short rang of 600 meters, what impact on tactics would such a weapon have in this conflict?
Is this a large enough number to have an deterrent effect?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MBT_LAW


Mjb
still in production.
600 meters is a lot. that would be a large open field environment. Any woods or urban environment reduces the real world fighting range significantly.
Very effective weapon as there is no way for the enemy to know if these are around and in which quantity. It's a fire and forget weapon that guides itself to the assigned target, so responding to fire is very difficult: enemy has no idea it is under attack before it hits and the shooter has already switched position at that point.
For guerrilla type warfare against an overwhelming and/or more advanced enemy it is a great tool.

So 2000 of these in the hands of experienced fighters is something to worry about if you are sitting in something like a BTR. Imagine a battalion in troop transport vehicles against two squads equipped with these. A nasty surprise for the grunts in the BTR's.

It is no attack weapon, but for defence it is designed for in the first place.
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Old 22nd Jan 2022, 06:41
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Hmm. Not so sure that an anti tank weapon with a range of 600m will make a substantial difference when resisting tanks that can drop shells 5km away. I suppose in built-up or forested areas they could be occasionally effective, but not game changers.
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Old 22nd Jan 2022, 07:11
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Originally Posted by double_barrel View Post
Hmm. Not so sure that an anti tank weapon with a range of 600m will make a substantial difference when resisting tanks that can drop shells 5km away. I suppose in built-up or forested areas they could be occasionally effective, but not game changers.
Surely there are many different types of weapons from hand grenades to nukes. But regarding tanks shelling from 5km away you'd need to know where to shoot. If you have 5 to 10 fighters you are looking for it would be a bit tricky don't you think? Ambushing a convoy is what these are very good for. Thinking of Afghanistan in multiple decades as an example...
The name is MBT LAW yes, but I would suggest that there are much more other types of armored vehicles to target as well like troop transports, BUK platforms etc.
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Old 22nd Jan 2022, 07:24
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Originally Posted by Beamr View Post
Surely there are many different types of weapons from hand grenades to nukes. But regarding tanks shelling from 5km away you'd need to know where to shoot. If you have 5 to 10 fighters you are looking for it would be a bit tricky don't you think? Ambushing a convoy is what these are very good for. Thinking of Afghanistan in multiple decades as an example...
The name is MBT LAW yes, but I would suggest that there are much more other types of armored vehicles to target as well like troop transports, BUK platforms etc.
Yep. I think we really agree. Under some circumstances 600m can be very effective. I suppose the question is, what will the conflict look like when/if it comes. These could be a real nuisance for the Russians in guerrilla/urban fighting, but that brings-up the observation that Eastern Ukraine is very pro Russian, so it is unlikely to look like an army penetrating a hostile civilian population à la Fallujah.
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