Ukraine War Thread Part 2
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Wounded soldier evacuated, a bit near the end of it shows packing his wound, I am impressed with the whole set up to get them away from the front line…., last couple of words from the guy are priceless.
..
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 5th Jul 2023 at 21:09.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Lest we forget the ongoing horror of the Russian occupation…
12-y-old Irina Gubareva was abducted by Russian soldiers on June 30 while walking to a friend’s house near Mariupol.
Locals quickly started spreading a photo of the Russian military vehicle used in the abduction
The soldiers haven’t been found, but her body was found yesterday
12-y-old Irina Gubareva was abducted by Russian soldiers on June 30 while walking to a friend’s house near Mariupol.
Locals quickly started spreading a photo of the Russian military vehicle used in the abduction
The soldiers haven’t been found, but her body was found yesterday
[QUOTE=langleybaston;11462352]
This was one of 3 images in the post, two were for the same geographic region, and time, the other was for 2011, covering the detections of Ce137 from Fukushima.
We have seen previously models related directly to fallout from an accident at ZNPP, which were for a specific date and weather condition in 2021. That also assumed a failure of the ZNPP that is one of a spectrum of failures that may arise when criminal action is considered, instead of a simple loss of coolant.
The VVER 1000 have multiple protection systems for cooling to stop catastrophic failures, none cover the deliberate dismantlement of these by demolition charges by a criminal with intent to cause a catastrophe. The last two defences to a meltdown of the core getting to ground and water table are the crucible, and the concrete base of the structure, both which can be damaged and compromised by deliberate action. The spent fuel has it's own failure risks, and can cause its own level of catastrophic contamination.
NPP's don't fail as a nuclear explosion, none have to date, and they cannot under normal circumstances. Will assume that remains the case, but nothing stops the criminals placing a TNW in the same area to make a fashion statement, but that would be readily traceable as to source, the weapons and power plant radioactive materials have characteristic elements that can be determined. Such a case would be traceable back to Russia, and in fact doesn't need to be, any nuclear explosion in Ukraine is of Russian cause, no other exists. That however would alter the spread of radioactive contamination.
For a melt down case, ground contamination gives both water contamination and particulate contamination, water is spread by the local watercourses that exist, and that gets a mess into the Black Sea eventually, Turkey, Romania etc, and potentially into the Mediterranean. Contamination can be from soluble forms or by suspended particulates, the soluble case can spread everywhere, the particulate will have a shorter distance of spread before particulates will come out of suspension.
Hydrogen explosions or steam explosions are least likely in the current condition of the NPP operational status, but are not ruled out completely, we have never had a criminal caused destruction of containment or spent fuel storage. With Chernobyl, the explosion ejected contaminants into the lower atmosphere, contaminating the area around the NPP. the fire spread contaminants into the mid and upper atmosphere, and soluble contaminants were carried within the upper air mass rapidly, (the alarm on the disaster was raised by the Scandinavians who detected rapidly rising levels of Cs 134 and 137, after local NPP workers were detected as being contaminated arriving at work 3 days after the first explosion. 10% of the total fallout of Chernobyl ended up in Nordic countries, thousands of km north and NW of the destroyed reactor. CS 134 has a 2 year half life, 137 has a 30 year half life, and remains the main contaminant in Sweden and other nordic countries.
With the spread of the contaminants into the waterways, carriage of soluble contaminants will occur through evaporation and transport as part of the normal water cycle in the lower and upper atmosphere, and depositing down range is dependent on the physics of the water cycle, and that is a pretty complex matter to determine, any model would need to be a statistical spread as many of the mechanisms that are involved are independent, and stochastic, not easy to model a single solution.
The main point is, there is no good news in criminal destruction of a NPP; if any single act has ever needed to be considered a crime against humanity, that would be a candidate. Nearly 40 years later, contamination from Chernobyl is still causing higher cancer rates in nordic countries than background, such criminal actions don't just harm todays generation, they harm future generations.
Personal opinion: it is time to throw Russia out of the UN, suspending their membership in total, and to stop fluffing about over Art 27(3) and get UNSC action without Russia's vote, they are prohibited by Art 27(3) of voting, yet the UNSC members lack the spine to act accordingly. Wasn't always that way, but it has become the norm, so the blame for the potential global disaster that may exceed Chernobyl and Fukushima stains all UNSC members. A pox on all their houses too.
For the next week, any radionuclides will end up going southbound, contaminating southern Ukraine, Crimea, Romania, Moldova, and Turkey, and then, with grace, it will be travelling back to the NE back towards the criminals. They may want to check their forecasts before making attacks on at least 2 NATO countries.
Assuming that any specific wind pattern will be the sole driver of contamination is asinine.
Two questions please:
if not wind patterns what does drive contamination [I know precipitation out will lessen the material transported]
and
Why choose 10,000 feet prediction?
700mB, (10,000') this weekend...
Assuming that any specific wind pattern will be the sole driver of contamination is asinine.
Two questions please:
if not wind patterns what does drive contamination [I know precipitation out will lessen the material transported]
and
Why choose 10,000 feet prediction?
700mB, (10,000') this weekend...
We have seen previously models related directly to fallout from an accident at ZNPP, which were for a specific date and weather condition in 2021. That also assumed a failure of the ZNPP that is one of a spectrum of failures that may arise when criminal action is considered, instead of a simple loss of coolant.
The VVER 1000 have multiple protection systems for cooling to stop catastrophic failures, none cover the deliberate dismantlement of these by demolition charges by a criminal with intent to cause a catastrophe. The last two defences to a meltdown of the core getting to ground and water table are the crucible, and the concrete base of the structure, both which can be damaged and compromised by deliberate action. The spent fuel has it's own failure risks, and can cause its own level of catastrophic contamination.
NPP's don't fail as a nuclear explosion, none have to date, and they cannot under normal circumstances. Will assume that remains the case, but nothing stops the criminals placing a TNW in the same area to make a fashion statement, but that would be readily traceable as to source, the weapons and power plant radioactive materials have characteristic elements that can be determined. Such a case would be traceable back to Russia, and in fact doesn't need to be, any nuclear explosion in Ukraine is of Russian cause, no other exists. That however would alter the spread of radioactive contamination.
For a melt down case, ground contamination gives both water contamination and particulate contamination, water is spread by the local watercourses that exist, and that gets a mess into the Black Sea eventually, Turkey, Romania etc, and potentially into the Mediterranean. Contamination can be from soluble forms or by suspended particulates, the soluble case can spread everywhere, the particulate will have a shorter distance of spread before particulates will come out of suspension.
Hydrogen explosions or steam explosions are least likely in the current condition of the NPP operational status, but are not ruled out completely, we have never had a criminal caused destruction of containment or spent fuel storage. With Chernobyl, the explosion ejected contaminants into the lower atmosphere, contaminating the area around the NPP. the fire spread contaminants into the mid and upper atmosphere, and soluble contaminants were carried within the upper air mass rapidly, (the alarm on the disaster was raised by the Scandinavians who detected rapidly rising levels of Cs 134 and 137, after local NPP workers were detected as being contaminated arriving at work 3 days after the first explosion. 10% of the total fallout of Chernobyl ended up in Nordic countries, thousands of km north and NW of the destroyed reactor. CS 134 has a 2 year half life, 137 has a 30 year half life, and remains the main contaminant in Sweden and other nordic countries.
With the spread of the contaminants into the waterways, carriage of soluble contaminants will occur through evaporation and transport as part of the normal water cycle in the lower and upper atmosphere, and depositing down range is dependent on the physics of the water cycle, and that is a pretty complex matter to determine, any model would need to be a statistical spread as many of the mechanisms that are involved are independent, and stochastic, not easy to model a single solution.
The main point is, there is no good news in criminal destruction of a NPP; if any single act has ever needed to be considered a crime against humanity, that would be a candidate. Nearly 40 years later, contamination from Chernobyl is still causing higher cancer rates in nordic countries than background, such criminal actions don't just harm todays generation, they harm future generations.
Personal opinion: it is time to throw Russia out of the UN, suspending their membership in total, and to stop fluffing about over Art 27(3) and get UNSC action without Russia's vote, they are prohibited by Art 27(3) of voting, yet the UNSC members lack the spine to act accordingly. Wasn't always that way, but it has become the norm, so the blame for the potential global disaster that may exceed Chernobyl and Fukushima stains all UNSC members. A pox on all their houses too.
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Possibly now 'one of a kind'.
short flights long nights
Russia seems to be vey quick to call any attack on them as “a act of terror ” and “ hospitals” are being attacked, but happy to bombard civilian sites in Ukraine 24/7.
So 1kg of C4 on board that could be set to go ff, via remote...?
Assuming of course that the part of the missile that contains it is intact...
But surely any sensitive chips (PCB's), could simply be 'blown up' by much smaller amounts?
On another similar tangent, I have always wondered if the 'seller' has put a backdoor into every weapon to deactivate in case that weapon is used against them.
I've been involved in IT for a fair while and AFAIK, there's a lot of backdoor access to a lot of universal comm chips in routers etc - Begins with C and ends in O - and other major software's and including mobile devices. If 'they' want in, there is a way....!
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly claims that Russian security forces stole valuable items and money from his house, and that he's recorded the thefts on hidden networked cameras. He is said to be planning to reveal the footage soon.
Pictures from the search were published yesterday, showing gold bars, stacks of cash and a fine collection of wigs. However, the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports, some of the finds 'stuck' to the fingers of the searchers.
A VChK-OGPU source says that "in the near future Prigozhin plans to announce that during the search of his personal property law enforcers stole valuable items and money. This was allegedly caught on hidden surveillance camera footage, which went unnoticed."
It's fairly common for Russian policemen to steal from searched properties, but on this occasion, the channel recommends "those who have been following all the new details of the searches of the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, should stock up on popcorn."…
Pictures from the search were published yesterday, showing gold bars, stacks of cash and a fine collection of wigs. However, the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports, some of the finds 'stuck' to the fingers of the searchers.
A VChK-OGPU source says that "in the near future Prigozhin plans to announce that during the search of his personal property law enforcers stole valuable items and money. This was allegedly caught on hidden surveillance camera footage, which went unnoticed."
It's fairly common for Russian policemen to steal from searched properties, but on this occasion, the channel recommends "those who have been following all the new details of the searches of the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, should stock up on popcorn."…
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Quick🧵There's actually a change on the ZNPP satellite imagery taken on July 5th and published by @planet: new objects appeared on the 4th power unit's roof since July 3rd….
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Does seem to make some pointed digs at the failure to provide aircraft. With his background and contacts hopefully it will inform the recent reports on Australia being willing to transfer their F-18A/B fleet to Ukraine.
Lots of recent discussion about the ‘slow’ Ukrainian offensives. What is actually occurring now is a steady, deliberate taking down of the Russian 'operational system'. This takes time. 1/25 🧵
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...333467136.html
Lots of recent discussion about the ‘slow’ Ukrainian offensives. What is actually occurring now is a steady, deliberate taking down of the Russian 'operational system'. This takes time. 1/25 🧵
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...333467136.html
Last edited by ORAC; 6th Jul 2023 at 10:24.
The following users liked this post:
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
? I thought they had the JT3D/TF33 replaced with the CFM56-2's?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing...nstant_Phoenix
…In April 2018 it was announced that three KC-135R tanker aircraft would be converted as WC-135R Constant Phoenix aircraft to replace the two aircraft operated by the 45th Reconnaissance Squadron. The first aircraft was scheduled to be converted by L3 Technologies at Greenville, Texas starting in September 2019.
In June 2022, the first of three planned WC-135R aircraft (serial number 64-14836) completed its maiden test flight, and was delivered to the 55th Wing on 11 July.…
https://www.radarbox.com/data/registration/64-14836
Last edited by ORAC; 6th Jul 2023 at 11:44.
Those new marks are quite a size, the tanks at the lower right of the turbo machinery halls measures 2.7m across, the white squares are slightly smaller, around... 2.4m +/-, there are 2 also on the ground level, curious additions.
No, they replaced the entire aircraft…. (the KC-135R already had the business andCFM engine business along with many other upgrades such as the cockpit).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing...nstant_Phoenix
…In April 2018 it was announced that three KC-135R tanker aircraft would be converted as WC-135R Constant Phoenix aircraft to replace the two aircraft operated by the 45th Reconnaissance Squadron. The first aircraft was scheduled to be converted by L3 Technologies at Greenville, Texas starting in September 2019.
In June 2022, the first of three planned WC-135R aircraft (serial number 64-14836) completed its maiden test flight, and was delivered to the 55th Wing on 11 July.…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing...nstant_Phoenix
…In April 2018 it was announced that three KC-135R tanker aircraft would be converted as WC-135R Constant Phoenix aircraft to replace the two aircraft operated by the 45th Reconnaissance Squadron. The first aircraft was scheduled to be converted by L3 Technologies at Greenville, Texas starting in September 2019.
In June 2022, the first of three planned WC-135R aircraft (serial number 64-14836) completed its maiden test flight, and was delivered to the 55th Wing on 11 July.…
Lest we forget the ongoing horror of the Russian occupation…
12-y-old Irina Gubareva was abducted by Russian soldiers on June 30 while walking to a friend’s house near Mariupol.
Locals quickly started spreading a photo of the Russian military vehicle used in the abduction
The soldiers haven’t been found, but her body was found yesterday
12-y-old Irina Gubareva was abducted by Russian soldiers on June 30 while walking to a friend’s house near Mariupol.
Locals quickly started spreading a photo of the Russian military vehicle used in the abduction
The soldiers haven’t been found, but her body was found yesterday
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They could be anything, they might have stuck gazebo's up on the roof for all those pictures tell you.
Last edited by NutLoose; 6th Jul 2023 at 12:12.
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