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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 5th Jul 2023, 10:13
  #2481 (permalink)  
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The thing I cannot get my head around is why would you plant explosives on the roof unless you have drilled into it, as the blast will go upwards and dissipate, surely if you were going to drop the roof you would need to place them inside and underneath the roof, thus using the confined area to increase the blast effect.
They have said the satellite images will confirm which does mean external to the structure.

Just a layman asking a simple question
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 10:16
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ORAC's quote makes sense, but the equal and opposite must also hold for any situation in Russia, and why am I now able to read tweet links once more?
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 10:18
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Trump: From the man that would nuke a hurricane!

"We must demand the immediate negotiation of a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine or we will end up in World War Three. And there will be nothing left of our planet -- all because stupid people didn't have a clue... They don't understand the power of nuclear."
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 10:32
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Originally Posted by Sfojimbo
I wouldn't expect that to come to pass until late next year for armored vehicles and loaded trucks, and then only if next year is a dry year.
I don't think that is correct. The following link shows that a tank exerts about the same pressure per sq.in. as a human, so i would expect them to be able to move now if they wanted to do so. Don't forget, just a couple of months ago, how bad the mud was in the Donbas,

https://www.mathscinotes.com/2016/06...sure-examples/
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 10:48
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It’s there if they want it - if they haven’t already got it. Lots of various types in NATO use.


https://www.army-technology.com/cont...faun-trackway/


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Old 5th Jul 2023, 11:05
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https://mstdn.social/@osinttechnical/110660634640017585

There is a hospital (City Hospital no. 2) roughly 500m from the ammunition dump (highlighted), from the video it appears that a stray rocket motor hit one of the buildings, with secondary injuries reported (mainly from flying glass) after the larger explosion.
This munitions dump had most likely been supplying Russian Bm-21 Grads firing from the area, Ukrainian forces recently hit a group firing from a highway overpass in Donetsk City.




This film shows them all stacked around a courtyard surrounded by flats on all sides. Posted link with daytime view, but twitter so you might not be able to open it.




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Old 5th Jul 2023, 11:06
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
I don't think that is correct. The following link shows that a tank exerts about the same pressure per sq.in. as a human, so i would expect them to be able to move now if they wanted to do so. Don't forget, just a couple of months ago, how bad the mud was in the Donbas,

https://www.mathscinotes.com/2016/06...sure-examples/
Have you seen the mess a lot of human feet can make of soft ground? A tank is the equivalent of a lot of feet
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 11:07
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Re 2481:

I might be right... Top left see the old road now showing after lake drained.

Rybar just posted this... it was what i expected.. 116 and 117 brigades with the 47th fighting near by to the east
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 11:12
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You can see the old road route here.

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-bro...D=%22MAPZEN%22




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Old 5th Jul 2023, 11:18
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The thing I cannot get my head around is why would you plant explosives on the roof unless you have drilled into it, as the blast will go upwards and dissipate, surely if you were going to drop the roof you would need to place them inside and underneath the roof, thus using the confined area to increase the blast effect.
To simulate hits from (Ukrainian) artillary?
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 11:19
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It appears to be catching on...

The Belarusian Minister of Transport, Aliaksei Auramenka, has died suddenly at the age of 46.



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Old 5th Jul 2023, 11:20
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
To simulate hits from (Ukrainian) artillery?
That makes sense. Thank you
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 11:32
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
It appears to be catching on...




Was he near a window at the time?
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 12:03
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
I don't think that is correct. The following link shows that a tank exerts about the same pressure per sq.in. as a human, so i would expect them to be able to move now if they wanted to do so. Don't forget, just a couple of months ago, how bad the mud was in the Donbas,

https://www.mathscinotes.com/2016/06...sure-examples/
The overall PSI figure isn't the salient number, read Pesant's and HugoJunkers replies in the article you cited, the max pressure under the rollers is the relevant number..

Also there is the fact that Donbas had been saturated with water for a couple of months but the reservoir had been under water for over 65 years.


Last edited by Sfojimbo; 5th Jul 2023 at 13:03.
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 12:06
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The mining of the NPP has not been corroborated by the IAEA on site, No mention in this statement issued on July 4

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pres...kraine’s

Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost the connection to its main external power line early this morning, forcing it to rely on recently restored back-up power supplies for the electricity it needs for essential nuclear safety and security functions, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said.

The ZNPP’s sole remaining 750 kilovolt (kV) power line – out of four available before the conflict – was disconnected at 01:21am local time today. It was not immediately known what had prompted the power cut or how long it would last.

Europe’s largest nuclear power plant has been experiencing major off-site power problems since the conflict began in early 2022, exacerbating the nuclear safety and security risks facing the site currently located on the frontline.

The disconnection of the 750 kV power line meant the ZNPP had to switch to its only available 330 kV back-up power line for off-site electricity that is required, for example, to pump cooling water for the plant. This 330 kV line was only reconnected to the plant on 1 July after being damaged four months ago.

“This time the plant avoided a complete loss of all external power – which has happened seven times previously during the conflict – but the latest power line cut again demonstrates the precarious nuclear safety and security situation at the plant,” Director General Grossi said.
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 12:09
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Nor here

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pres...0International

Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts have so far found no visible indications of mines or other explosives currently planted at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), but they still need additional access to carry out further such checks at the site, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today.

The team of IAEA experts were today able to inspect parts of the plant’s cooling system, including some sections of the perimeter of the large cooling pond and the isolation gate of the discharge channel of the nearby Zaporizhzhya Thermal Power Plant (ZTPP). Both this channel and the cooling pond hold reserves of water that remain available for use by the ZNPP despite the destruction of the downstream Kakhovka dam more than three weeks ago.

The IAEA experts have also been conducting regular walkdowns across the six reactor units and other areas around the site. Access to further areas is still expected, including parts of the turbine halls and some parts of the cooling system.

As previously indicated, the IAEA is aware of reports that mines and other explosives have been placed in and around the ZNPP, including mines near the cooling pond.

“We take all such reports very seriously and I have instructed our experts at the site to look into this matter and request the access they need for doing their job. Until now they have not observed any mines or other explosives. Further access will still be needed,” Director General Grossi said.

As Director General Grossi said last week, no mines were observed at the site during his visit to the ZNPP on 15 June, his third in less than ten months. However, the IAEA has been aware of a previous placement of mines outside the plant perimeter, which the Agency has reported about earlier, and also at particular places inside.

The five basic principles for the protection of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant (NPP) that Director General Grossi established on 30 May at the United Nations Security Council state that there should be no attack from or against the plant and that it should not be used as storage or a base for heavy weapons – multiple rocket launchers, artillery systems and munitions, and tanks.

“We need full access to be able to confirm that the five principles have not been violated, and we will continue to request the necessary access to all those areas essential to nuclear safety and security so that we can deliver on this mandate, including that the plant should not be used as storage or base for heavy weapons and munitions,” Director General Grossi said, adding that the IAEA team had not reported any shelling or explosions over the past week and that the military presence at the site appears unchanged.

“We are reinforcing our own presence at the plant to monitor compliance with these principles that are of paramount importance for protecting the plant and preventing a major nuclear accident during the war,” he said.

Since the Kakhovka dam was breached on 6 June, causing a rapid drop in the reservoir’s level, the ZNPP has been relying on separate reserves of water held near or at the site, especially the ZTPP’s discharge channel.

Currently, the plant’s six reactors continue to be cooled using the essential cooling system, now being replenished with underground water pumped from the site’s drainage system, Director General Grossi said. For the site’s other water needs, the plant has recently switched from using the ZTPP discharge channel to the large cooling pond next to the site.

As a result, the height of the ZNPP cooling pond is declining by up to 1 centimetre per day due to site usage and evaporation, but water from the drainage system is also being used to replenish this body of water, thereby slowing the reduction rate in the water level. The pond’s current water level is just over 16.5 metres.

On 23 June, as indicated in the Director General’s Update 167, the ZNPP started the normal circulation pumps to take water from the ZTPP’s inlet channel – which used to be directly connected to the reservoir but has since been detached from it – into the same facility’s discharge channel but soon had to stop because the water level was too low for operating these pumps. It was the first such attempt since 8 June.

Instead, Director General Grossi said, the plant is preparing to use smaller submersible pumps to access water from this inlet channel and refill the ZTPP discharge channel, whose level had been falling by around 10 centimetres per day until the plant started using the cooling pond. Its height has now stabilized at just under 17 metres, helped also by recent rain and cooler weather.

Pumping additional water into the discharge channel would provide an extra buffer for the ZNPP, whose six reactors are all in shutdown but still need both power and cooling water.

To help preserve these existing but still finite resources the plant has also reduced consumption of water that is not necessary for essential nuclear safety and security functions as much as possible.

“Even though the site currently has sufficient water reserves for some months, the plant needs to act already now to ensure sufficient water for the longer term. The plant is working to address this issue, but it is a complex undertaking, which we witnessed once again last week,” he said.

The ZNPP remains dependent on a single operational 750 kilovolt (kV) external power line for the electricity it needs for cooling the reactors and other essential nuclear safety and security functions, compared with four lines before the armed conflict in Ukraine. If this line were to fail again – as has happened repeatedly in recent months – the site currently only has emergency diesel generators available for the electricity it needs to pump the water that cools the reactors and spent fuel ponds.

Five of the ZNPP’s six reactors are in cold shutdown. Unit 5 remains in hot shutdown to generate steam required for the site. The IAEA experts visited the Unit 5 main control room yesterday and confirmed the hot shutdown status. The experts have also been informed that the plant is still assessing the need for steam to determine what type of external steam generator could be installed and possibly allow the cold shutdown of Unit 5. The IAEA is also aware that the Ukraine regulator has made changes to the licences of some of the units of ZNPP, including that the operation of Unit 5 be carried out in a cold shutdown state.

The IAEA also has teams of experts permanently present at Ukraine’s other NPPs to assist in efforts to maintain nuclear safety and security during the conflict.

On 13 June, a delivery of spare parts for the emergency diesel generators of the South Ukraine NPP took place. These spare parts are essential for the maintenance and functionality of the emergency diesel generators, so their proper functioning is ensured to prevent a nuclear accident due to loss of off-site power. The delivery followed the arrangements agreed on 5 May between the IAEA, France and Ukraine’s Energoatom. Additional spare parts foreseen under this agreement will be delivered soon.

Yesterday, the IAEA coordinated its 19th equipment delivery during the conflict, consisting of five decontamination units for Ukraine’s State Emergency Services, procured with support from the European Union. Five additional units have been procured with other funds and are awaiting shipment to Ukraine.
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 12:14
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Originally Posted by Sfojimbo
The overall PSI figure isn't the salient number, read Pesant's and HugoJunkers replies in the article you cited, the max pressure under the rollers is the relevant number..

Also there is the fact that Donbas had been saturated with water for a couple of months but the reservoir had been under water for over 65 years.
I don't think that's relevant. Reservoirs are normally either lined with - or built on - impermeable soils like clay to prevent leakage, so there will be a limited layer of soil to dry out. As far as ground pressure is concerned, I don't see those comments as saying " Ridiculous , you are way off" but rather that there are variables.
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 12:21
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Originally Posted by Sfojimbo
The overall PSI figure isn't the salient number, read Pesant's and HugoJunkers replies in the article you cited, the max pressure under the rollers is the relevant number..

Also there is the fact that Donbas had been saturated with water for a couple of months but the reservoir had been under water for over 65 years.
Also, mud is thixotropic and becomes more fluid under agitation.
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 13:01
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Reservoirs are normally either lined with - or built on - impermeable soils like clay to prevent leakage
AFIK impermeable soils like clay are used in the construction of dams, but the amount of clay needed to seal a reservoir like Kakhovka (725 sq mi) would be unworkable. AFIK reservoirs are mostly built in river valleys where they are needed, not where the soil is best.

BTW, I learned a new word today: thixotropic.
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Old 5th Jul 2023, 13:34
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Ketchup

Originally Posted by Sfojimbo
AFIK impermeable soils like clay are used in the construction of dams, but the amount of clay needed to seal a reservoir like Kakhovka (725 sq mi) would be unworkable. AFIK reservoirs are mostly built in river valleys where they are needed, not where the soil is best.

BTW, I learned a new word today: thixotropic.
Thats why you shake the ketchup bottle

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