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AUKUS

Old 26th Oct 2021, 08:36
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Tell NZ to go take a cold shower. Banning nukes and little to contribute doesn't cut it...they can't have it both ways! [or maybe Ardern can]
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Old 26th Oct 2021, 09:12
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Originally Posted by TBM-Legend View Post
Tell NZ to go take a cold shower. Banning nukes and little to contribute doesn't cut it...they can't have it both ways! [or maybe Ardern can]
By NZ you mean New Xi Land
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Old 26th Oct 2021, 11:03
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Can’t see it on three grounds.

Firstly, what would NZ bring to the table to earn a seat at the table? I cant see anything.

Secondly membership would allow them a disruptive voice on an6 decisions, whether nuclear or not - as already proven over 5 Eyes discussions.

Lastly, with the deep involvement of China in companies and universities in NZ, the risk would high of any research into new technology, cyber, quantum or other, rapidly being passed on to Chinese researchers.
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Old 26th Oct 2021, 12:33
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Canít see it on three grounds.

Firstly, what would NZ bring to the table to earn a seat at the table? I cant see anything.

Secondly membership would allow them a disruptive voice on an6 decisions, whether nuclear or not - as already proven over 5 Eyes discussions.

Lastly, with the deep involvement of China in companies and universities in NZ, the risk would high of any research into new technology, cyber, quantum or other, rapidly being passed on to Chinese researchers.
From what I am seeing in the scientific literature, the risk is rather the reverse when it comes to the flow of new technologies, especially quantum computing and cyber.
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Old 26th Oct 2021, 13:38
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All the more reason, if money is thrown at the area, to preserve what is developed.
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Old 27th Oct 2021, 11:13
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The RAN fronted senate estimates today. Only seen bits, waiting for the full transcript but interest things

The head of the nuclear submarine taskforce, Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead, has told the committee that Australia intended to select a "mature design" for its nuclear submarine, to be built under the AUKUS security partnership.

also think he said hopes to 1 maybe 2 ready by 2040
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Old 27th Oct 2021, 13:40
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Astute would be the ideal design and the tooling can be transferred after UK boat 7 is completed. The PWR-2 or 3 debate is a smokescreen as neither of them require refuelling during their service lives.
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Old 27th Oct 2021, 14:44
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Arrow

Originally Posted by rattman View Post
The RAN fronted senate estimates today. Only seen bits, waiting for the full transcript but interest things

The head of the nuclear submarine taskforce, Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead, has told the committee that Australia intended to select a "mature design" for its nuclear submarine, to be built under the AUKUS security partnership.

also think he said hopes to 1 maybe 2 ready by 2040
I told you 1 month ago, 1or 2 sub in 2040, if the RAN takes the Suffren class, it will be all 12 before 2035 ! Game, Set and Match !
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Old 27th Oct 2021, 14:58
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Assuming France would have agreed to change the contract to nuclear, and at what cost, I doub5 th3 first would have been delivered by 2035.

Also, seeing as they were complaining they couldn’t even get to 60% local build content on a conventional boat, I doubt that even. 20-30% local content would have been offered - totally against the entire Australian required concept of locally built and supplied support (see previous video ref the Collins class).

Lastly that would have required the entire fleet to b3 refuelled every 5 years in France, placing the entire force at the mercy of French political designs. Seeing as they are pushing a pro-China policy in the EU that would have been an unacceptable risk.

But apart from that, you have a point.
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Old 28th Oct 2021, 00:35
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Originally Posted by balboa1968 View Post
I told you 1 month ago, 1or 2 sub in 2040, if the RAN takes the Suffren class, it will be all 12 before 2035 ! Game, Set and Match !
Quite obviously, out of the question. Point was made a month ago that the refuelling requirements put Australia in a loss of sovereignty scenario if the French have any sort of a tantrum.

If Australia develops a submarine capability gap, AUKUS will fill it with non-sovereign assets with regular rotations through expanded east and west coast infrastructures. Many Australians will find this palatable as opposed to relying on French good will in the face of CCP coercion! And this is what many folks seem to forget-AUKUS is about protecting a country who is standing up to China more than most and having far more to lose economically than most. China's pressure on Australia has strategic ambitions little different to Imperial Japanese forces in 1942. Fracture and isolate Australia from the US and secure the western reaches of the Pacific.

The ADF is also being rapidly expanded with capabilities delivering a long range punch to offset a delayed deployment of Collins replacements.
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Old 28th Oct 2021, 02:29
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Just waiting for the announcement that australia is going to lease 2 american subs probably 688's but I cant discount earlier blocks 1 virginia's that are at hawaii
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Old 28th Oct 2021, 14:34
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Talking

Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Assuming France would have agreed to change the contract to nuclear, and at what cost, I doub5 th3 first would have been delivered by 2035.

Also, seeing as they were complaining they couldn’t even get to 60% local build content on a conventional boat, I doubt that even. 20-30% local content would have been offered - totally against the entire Australian required concept of locally built and supplied support (see previous video ref the Collins class).

Lastly that would have required the entire fleet to b3 refuelled every 5 years in France, placing the entire force at the mercy of French political designs. Seeing as they are pushing a pro-China policy in the EU that would have been an unacceptable risk.

But apart from that, you have a point.
The first Suffren is already sailing. Ok I am perhaps a little optimistic about 2035 , but all 12 would have been ready in 2040 ( 19 years from now ).
IMHO Australia will never get the latest nuke subs from the US.
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Old 28th Oct 2021, 16:49
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One hates to criticise our French neighbours, but I suspect that the Australian Government were aware of certain issues, see below.

1. A document relating to non UK or Soviet/Russian naval/marine nuclear propulsion. It seems that ORAC was right about low enrichment levels.

2. A discussion of political and integration problems relating to the design and construction of the FS Charles de Gaulle - from here. First class engineering, but woeful project management.

Given that this is an aviation forum, are their any ASW aspects to AUKUS arrangements, relating to the P-8 Maritime Patrol Aircraft or naval ASW helicopters?

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Old 29th Oct 2021, 00:38
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
Just waiting for the announcement that australia is going to lease 2 american subs probably 688's but I cant discount earlier blocks 1 virginia's that are at hawaii
Source for that?
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Old 29th Oct 2021, 00:58
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https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-a...0210919-p58syl
Australia plans to lease and share existing nuclear-powered submarines years before acquisition, narrowing a risk the American or British subs arrive too late to counter China’s rapid military expansion in the Indo-Pacific.
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Old 29th Oct 2021, 02:00
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I wonder if there is a feeling in RAN that they need to get a nuclear powered sub ASAP in case the political climate changes (eg Greens get balance of power in a hung parliament).
Once they have one in fleet (even if leased) then much harder to reverse the decision re an RAN nuclear powered sub fleet.

Last edited by rjtjrt; 29th Oct 2021 at 02:11.
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Old 29th Oct 2021, 02:05
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Interesting.
https://www.australiandefence.com.au...r-powered-subs
We build the front half, and the Yanks build the back half.
What could possibly go wrong???!!!!
Just as long as they're really clear regarding metric, or imperial
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Old 29th Oct 2021, 02:08
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Originally Posted by tartare View Post
Interesting.
https://www.australiandefence.com.au...r-powered-subs
We build the front half, and the Yanks build the back half.
What could possibly go wrong???!!!!

Not sure that new news in any form, the plans have always been the nuclear plant and engineering would be built somewhere else, shipped to aus then mated with the rest. The actuall % could be new info considering collins something like 60% local, I think 60% local on a nuclear would be completely unrealistic

Last edited by rattman; 29th Oct 2021 at 02:29.
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Old 29th Oct 2021, 03:24
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Fair enough, he has an election early next year and has to play to his domestic audience. However, he must realise that France needs the US,UK and AU far more in the Pacific, than they need France.

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-new...658264b570e847
The phone exchange between the two leaders was largely tense where Mr Macron doubled down on his comments Australia had "broken the relation of trust between our two countries..It is now up to the Australian Government to propose tangible actions that embody the political will of Australia's highest authorities to redefine the bias of our bilateral relationship and continue join action in the Indo-Pacific," the Elysee Palace said.
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Old 29th Oct 2021, 04:16
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
Not sure that new news in any form, the plans have always been the nuclear plant and engineering would be built somewhere else, shipped to aus then mated with the rest. The actuall % could be new info considering collins something like 60% local, I think 60% local on a nuclear would be completely unrealistic
Guess it's just interpretation.
The way I read the latest story was it was being suggested that Oz would build the entire front half, the US the entire back half, and then they'd be mated.
Both the Virginia and Astute boats are assembled in modules after all, so I suppose it's technically possible.
And if the RAN does get the Virginia class, it may be a way of addressing the production line constraints at Newport News, due to USN orders.
But how you'd get half a sub down here, or up there... maybe I'm reading it too literally.
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