AUKUS

[unmanned_droid]

They'll get 2nd hand US before then, imo - 2038 is too late if Xi is going to follow through with 'reunification' at around 100yr anniversary of the CCP, which, was this year, granted. I don't see them getting another 17+yrs before an attempt is made.

[Asturias56]

I presume you mean reunifying the Peoples Republic with Taiwan not Australia?

And that seems to suggest that Australia will go to war with China over Taiwan?

I know a lot of Australians and I don't know a single one who would back that. Hell, I don't think even the Americans will go to war over Taiwan TBH when push comes to shove

[Going Boeing]

This announcement is probably timed because of the upcoming election but it does indicate that the behind the scenes work is progressing and all parties are committed to expediting the selection and build process.

Dutton announcement on Sky News

[megan]

He just continued Gortons policy and the job was finished by Whitlam

Whitlam had nothing to do with the draw down, the only people left in country when he came to power were a few people tying up loose ends, a few members of the training team and the embassy guard. All Whitlam did was cancel conscription, which was no longer needed with our getting out. The draw down started before it was publicly announced, my unit was ordered to cease combat operations at 0530 local 9th June 1971, note the date on the Cabinet paper.

[Alt Flieger]

Ok. I get all that . Not a fan of Whitlam either. The point I was trying to make is that McMahon was a useless waste of space.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ias-aukus-deal

South Korea presidential contender vows to seek nuclear-powered submarines, months after Australia’s Aukus deal

Sout Korea’s ruling party presidential candidate said he will seek US support to build nuclear-powered submarines to better counter threats from North Korea and proactively seek to reopen stalled denuclearisation talks between Pyongyang and Washington.

In an interview with Reuters and two other media outlets, Lee Jae-myung also pledged to put aside “strategic ambiguity” in the face of intensifying Sino-US rivalry, vowing pragmatic diplomacy would avoid South Korea being forced to choose between the two countries.……

[golder]

Originally Posted by ORAC

In an interview with Reuters and two other media outlets, Lee Jae-myung also pledged to put aside “strategic ambiguity” in the face of intensifying Sino-US rivalry, vowing pragmatic diplomacy would avoid South Korea being forced to choose between the two countries.……

I think that was meant for the upcoming local elections.
If he wins. Starting off negations, with the blackmail threat against the US. Always leads to a positive outcome. It's not going to happen. They will have to ask the French if they want to sell their guarded tech for a price. I can't see the French doing that either. Brazil is providing their own nuke engine.

[ORAC]

I think they’d prefer French technology anyway.

HEU rectors have a longer life but have NPT issues, as discussed. South Korea, on the other hand, already has a domestic nuclear industry with 24 working reactors procuring a third of the countries electricity. Supporting the refuelling of their own boats every 5-10 years wouldn’t be a major step once they have the designs.

[golder]

Originally Posted by ORAC

I think they’d prefer French technology anyway.

HEU rectors have a longer life but have NPT issues, as discussed. South Korea, on the other hand, already has a domestic nuclear industry with 24 working reactors procuring a third of the countries electricity. Supporting the refuelling of their own boats every 5-10 years wouldn’t be a major step once they have the designs.

All they need to do now is convince France. They haven't offered their nuke tech to anyone yet.

[ORAC]

All they need to do now is convince France. They haven't offered their nuke tech to anyone yet.

From the earlier comments on this thread they offered it to Oz - who declined in favour of the longer life HEU option so they wouldn’t have the refuelling issues during boat service life.

And France seems to be offering the technology, or at least provide the rectors, to India - perhaps in response.

Which might be another reason for South Korea to want to have their own….

https://www.businessworld.in/article...12-2021-414965

[golder]

It wasn't offered to Australia and we never seriously considered it, because of refueling. After we canceled, IMO because we were seen more of a meal ticket. Their were questions asked by France, but the French still didn't offer their tech. We'll see about India, who is leasing the Russian nuke. IMO India is a bit too close to Russia, to share such tech.

[ORAC]

Then of course there is the sale of the technology to Brazil for their SNBR…

https://www.naval-group.com/en/prosu...ring-proximity

[golder]

I posted Brazil a few posts before, you may have missed it. AFAIK they are developing their own nuke engine. Your own link says "support from Naval Group in the design and construction of a new class of nuclear-powered" It may extend to helping them develop their own. It isn't the French engine that is being transferred. It is a long, ongoing build.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Then of course there is the sale of the technology to Brazil for their SNBR…

https://www.naval-group.com/en/prosu...ring-proximity

So a few things not going to quote them seperately. HEU is not covered by the NPT in any way or shape form. Its completely omitted from it, its not a grey it completely doesn't exist or mentioned. When the NPT was signed the only country to use HEU reactors was the USSR. Other countries like france played with the concept and I think US had on HEU sub for evaluation purposes


Secondly australia never requested nor did france ever offer nuclear submarines (publically). No PM up till morrisson was willing to take the risk of the backlash of going nuclear, there was rumors that the reason france was picked was because the plan was to make the first 6 attack conventional and the later 6 nuclear.

France to my knowledge has never offered nuclear propulsion to any other country, france cant give/sell the tech to india because india not a signitory to the NPT, brazil is developing their own reactors, france is just helping with the contruction of the hulls

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/20...future-growth/

US Navy avoided a 2022 ‘trough’ in submarine fleet size, but industry challenges threaten future growth

[Asturias56]

In the past we've always thought defence unit numbers would fall due to the ever-increasing costs (Augustine's Law) but I never thought we'd finish up designing something so complicated that it would be impossible to build at any speed - that article suggest 6 years for new Virginias - and we're already someway along the learning curve..............

[Not_a_boffin]

Originally Posted by Asturias56

In the past we've always thought defence unit numbers would fall due to the ever-increasing costs (Augustine's Law) but I never thought we'd finish up designing something so complicated that it would be impossible to build at any speed - that article suggest 6 years for new Virginias - and we're already someway along the learning curve..............

What the article actually suggests is that its not necessarily the complexity that's the issue - it's the availability of skilled labour. That's in the design and fabrication elements as well as parts of the supply chain. Take steel - submarine steel is actually fairly specialised in its strength properties as well as toughness and ductility - driven by particular military requirements. You don't just rock up at the steel mill and pick up a couple of thousand tonnes of HY100 each week. That's before you get to the qualification and inspection procedures, or indeed the welding procedures. You've also got specialist casting and forging techniques to deal with. Because the throughput volume has been so low, it means that the industrial base (and NAVSEA) have not been able to support sufficient people to quickly ramp up scale - and it's not something you can just go on a course for, particularly when some of that knowledge was generated thirty years ago and may not have been curated as (with hindsight) it should have been. Throw in some new safety requirements/procedures, changes in what industry uses to produce things (continuously cast steel compared to batch casting) and it gets even more complex. Now add in complex fluid and electronic systems - all designed built and qualified to military requirements - and it's an even bigger challenge.

It all comes down to people - or availability thereof.

[golder]

The manufacture said they will invest to do 3 a year. If there is a firm ongoing order.
https://news.usni.org/2020/11/18/nav...pyard-capacity

[rattman]

Not aukus specificially but Australia and Japan have signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement. First one Japan has signed

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-...eaty/100741012

[Going Boeing]

This diagram clearly shows the “time on station” advantages of the SSN over the SSK in the areas that RAN submarines are likely to operate. It’s very significant and shows why 8 SSN’s will be more effective than the previous plan for 12 SSK’s.