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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 21st Mar 2023, 22:14
  #15581 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Sad news - it looks like the Kiwi mentioned in Nutty's post below has been killed in combat.



https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...428308992?s=20



https://twitter.com/MrFukkew/status/1636242282423656448
per Facebook, Kane te tai is the one wearing green, holding the SCAR (or similar)

These guys need to be remembered as heroes helping heroes in a heroic struggle against a criminal, perverted gang led by an egotistical despot who cares only about his own skin, cares nothing for the citizens of Russia that he is shredding, and less for those having the misfortune to live in a country adjacent to Vlads syndicate of crime.

i te toenetanga o te ra, ka maharatia koe. moe pai, kua oti i a koe to mahi. Kia ora.

​​​​​​​RIP
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Old 21st Mar 2023, 22:47
  #15582 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Wouldn't think so. Dzhankoi is a very important rail-hub, so there will be lots of ways to re-route trains around a single siding/piece of track.
That assumes the Russians had any interest in the term "logistics" or "preparation". Feb 24 2022 had Vlads invaders inside another country without the troops being told they were at war... seems assuming that Vlad is a master strategist might be overstating his skill at RISK.

A leader who messes up as badly as Putin has normally doesn't get to avoid the shallow ditch, jerry can and match retirement plan. In Vlads case, an opportunistic open upper floor window would be poetic, but the back ramp of a IL-76 carrying #200's would at least achieve terminal velocity, that velocity that Vlad is driving the Russian Federation towards dismemberment as he depletes the armed forces that have kept the peripheral vassal states within the sphere of Vlads Evil empire.

Last edited by fdr; 22nd Mar 2023 at 01:00.
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Old 21st Mar 2023, 22:53
  #15583 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
That assumes the Russians had any interest in the term "logistics" or "preparation". Feb 24 2022 had Vlads invaders inside another country without the troops being told they were at war... seems assuming that Vlad is a master strategist might be overstating his skill at RISK.

A leader who messes up as badly as Putin has normally doesn't get to avoid the shallow ditch, gerry can and match retirement plan. In Vlads case, an opportunistic open upper floor window would be poetic, but the back ramp of a IL-76 carrying #200's would at least achieve terminal velocity, that velocity that Vlad is driving the Russian Federation towards dismemberment as he depletes the armed forces that have kept the peripheral vassal states within the sphere of Vlads Evil empire.
Sorry, your post is completely opaque to me. More direct and less swirling flights of rhetoric is more informative.
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Old 21st Mar 2023, 23:08
  #15584 (permalink)  
 
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Details on RU 125mm smoothbore ammuntion variants here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/125_mm...ore_ammunition
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Old 21st Mar 2023, 23:13
  #15585 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Sorry, your post is completely opaque to me. More direct and less swirling flights of rhetoric is more informative.
Canít agree. His meaning is very clear to me and I find his style encapsulates the anger many feel about Putinís actions rather well.
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Old 21st Mar 2023, 23:21
  #15586 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by melmothtw
Lying and being lied to are part of the Russian condition, unfortunately.

As Solzhenitsyn put it, ďWe know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.Ē
Nothing new but well described by Solzhenitsyn. It's an excellent descriptipn of the standard and universally accepted and time-honoured official governmental barefaced lie that absolutely no-one believes, neither the teller nor the recipient, and all recognise that it's just an utter fib. But that's the Party Line so all run with it, heads in the sand. No questions tolerated, it's been stated. End of!
The Russian word for this is of course 'vranyo'. An official falsehood that no one believes or expects anyone to believe or imagines that isn't universally accepted as a falsehood. But it's the Party Line so...

It's a quite extraordinary insight into the mindset of an entire nation and explains to a great extent the incomprehension Westerners experience when viewing the almost universal unthinking acceptance of the Russian population of the most outrageous falsehoods from the Kremlin.
A population deprived of it's ability to think for itself.
What an utter abomination!
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Old 21st Mar 2023, 23:46
  #15587 (permalink)  
 
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And another one bites the dust


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Last edited by NutLoose; 22nd Mar 2023 at 00:02.
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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 00:00
  #15588 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Wouldn't think so. Dzhankoi is a very important rail-hub, so there will be lots of ways to re-route trains around a single siding/piece of track.
There is a two and a half mile stretch of (double) track from the center of Dzhankoy, to the north which is the only rail connection out of Crimea. At the two and a half mile point there is a Y with one single track heading to Kherson and the other heading to Melitopol. This is a real chokepoint, which lies about 90 miles from the Dnipro River and Ukrainian territory.

I also believe that Ukraine has the ability to close the Kertch bridge when they need to.
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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 00:28
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Agreed, itís a rail choke point preventing a rapid reinforcement of both troops and equipment.
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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 00:52
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Apparently slovakia is getting 12 AH-1Z's + hellfires from the US in exchange for the mig 29's to ukriane and about 350 million. So they got somewhere near a 150 million for the mig 29's. Not a bad deal overall for slovakia

https://www.sme.sk/minuta/23149332/z...ov-ah-1z-viper
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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 01:05
  #15591 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by fdr
That assumes the Russians had any interest in the term "logistics" or "preparation". Feb 24 2022 had Vlads invaders inside another country without the troops being told they were at war... seems assuming that Vlad is a master strategist might be overstating his skill at RISK.

A leader who messes up as badly as Putin has normally doesn't get to avoid the shallow ditch, jerry can and match retirement plan. In Vlads case, an opportunistic open upper floor window would be poetic, but the back ramp of a IL-76 carrying #200's would at least achieve terminal velocity, that velocity that Vlad is driving the Russian Federation towards dismemberment as he depletes the armed forces that have kept the peripheral vassal states within the sphere of Vlads Evil empire.
Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Sorry, your post is completely opaque to me. More direct and less swirling flights of rhetoric is more informative.
Sorry for being so obtuse, so, simply put, please explain on what factual basis that you would consider that Russia has shown competency in protecting the MSR and as you have specifically indicated, the rail line going through an obvious choke point?

A look at recent high resolution imagery doesn't indicate spur lines, parallel main rail going over multiple new bridges to south east Kherson oblast from criminally occupied Crimea.

Hoping that this is less opaque.
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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 04:36
  #15592 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
Sorry for being so obtuse, so, simply put, please explain on what factual basis that you would consider that Russia has shown competency in protecting the MSR and as you have specifically indicated, the rail line going through an obvious choke point?

A look at recent high resolution imagery doesn't indicate spur lines, parallel main rail going over multiple new bridges to south east Kherson oblast from criminally occupied Crimea.

Hoping that this is less opaque.
I think there might be some confusion here with Sfojimbo's post re rail lines and some other posts..... It would certainly be a good thing to have longer range HIMARS.
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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 04:42
  #15593 (permalink)  
 
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"Don't wake the Russian bear!?!"

I looked up natural bear predators and discovered that tigers are about the only top predator that can take them out. At the end of the list it said that actually other bears are their greatest threat.

Ukraine looks like she is being reborn as a leopard tiger, or perhaps a cousin bear.

Last edited by jolihokistix; 22nd Mar 2023 at 06:39.
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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 06:17
  #15594 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
I think there might be some confusion here with Sfojimbo's post re rail lines and some other posts..... It would certainly be a good thing to have longer range HIMARS.
Hey 2xU, no confusion; Russia has not showed any competency in anything other than fertilising Ukraine, and wrecking their reputation. This is Act III of the Bolshevik revolution. Last thing that Russia showed competency in was....... was...... my mind has gone blank. Darn good at killing Russians, pretty effective at killing their friends and neighbours. But to the concept of being prepared to protect their MSR, I got no evidence that suggests they have shown anything beyond contempt for the concept to date.

They need full octane HIMARS, not the decaf stuff.

There are hundreds of MQ1s sitting idle. There are a lot of crews that would operate those for the Ukrainians, as it still seems to be a bit difficult to get the point through to the lords and masters in the west that the deaths of Ukrainians in defending both their country and Article 5 of the UN Charter obliges countries with capability to assist them. They are needlessly dying as the west has been equivocal on its support to their hour day year of need.

The longer this goes on, the more harm the SMO does to the rest of the world as well as Ukrainians, and incidentally Russians, many of them who would prefer to be alive in their own beds rather than becoming part of the sunflower fields. Ukraine will forevermore be synonymous with sunflowers and Russian stupidity, as poppy are a reminder of 1914-1917 1918 (Blackadder goes 4th)
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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 06:31
  #15595 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Agreed, itís a rail choke point preventing a rapid reinforcement of both troops and equipment.
And possibly a target youíd destroy closer to the time when youíre likely to attack perhaps? Donít give them a reason to reinforce from the occupied territory whilst the bridge is out.
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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 08:41
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Sorry, your post is completely opaque to me. More direct and less swirling flights of rhetoric is more informative.
I understand your desire for plain English without frills and no criticism to your post is meant.

Personally, I find the satire introduces a refreshing relief and welcome variety to a very serious and otherwise dry discussion.

It's a very British cultural theme in the greatest tradition of dark humour from Python to Blackadder to Spitting Image - even if not quite in the same league.


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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 09:43
  #15597 (permalink)  
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​​​​​​​In Sevastopol, reports of heavy explosions in the area of the bay where missile carriers of the Black Sea fleet are located. Russians are reporting the possibility of a sea drone attack.
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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 09:59
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And air

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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 10:02
  #15599 (permalink)  
 
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Emergency ration drop

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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 10:40
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Originally Posted by fdr
Sorry for being so obtuse, so, simply put, please explain on what factual basis that you would consider that Russia has shown competency in protecting the MSR and as you have specifically indicated, the rail line going through an obvious choke point?

A look at recent high resolution imagery doesn't indicate spur lines, parallel main rail going over multiple new bridges to south east Kherson oblast from criminally occupied Crimea.
Hoping that this is less opaque.
It is less opaque, but may well have missed its target . As Winemaker said in his post 15593, I think you have confused my post and sfojimbo's
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