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Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

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Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

Old 13th Apr 2021, 11:27
  #101 (permalink)  
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Politico Brussels Playbook

Either U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken loves locked-down Brussels Town even more than Brad Pitt, or something’s up. America’s Francophone foreign minister touches down today in the European capital for the second time in just a few weeks, amid reports Russian forces are amassing along the Ukrainian border.....

With the U.S. government reporting that tens of thousands of Russian troops are pushing up on the Ukrainian border, Blinken will be joined in Brussels today by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Will he meet Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who will be in town for a meeting at NATO?

“The secretary should have an opportunity to see him perhaps later in Brussels,” said Department of State European and Eurasian Affairs Acting Assistant Secretary Philip Reeker in a press briefing ahead of the trip. The aim is de-escalation, but if Russia acts aggressively, “there will be consequences,” he said without elaborating further......

Some diplomats were surprised to see Blinken heading back into town after his visit last month, but Reeker stressed the reason for the visit was simply coordination..... “You cannot consult and coordinate enough in diplomacy,” Reeker insisted.

What could possibly go wrong? Oh, just about everything, as Sarah Lain, a Kyiv-based associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), lays out in this op-ed.

“There is a fine line between deterrence and what is interpreted as offensive action,” Lain writes. “Everyone is watching what Russia might do, without much of a plan as to what the response would be, should it escalate significantly. This also adds to the unpredictability.”...

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Old 13th Apr 2021, 12:39
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Beamr Good points a to c, well presented.
D is an assumption and the upcoming elections will give better view on this.

E and F are another story altogether. My first reactions are: years of hollywood indoctrination have worked: all soviets/Russians are stupid and fools. And common sense has left the planet!

I will touch on the ones I know.

Nemtsov: shot near the Kremlin, really stupid if it was FSB, but perfect for MSM/the West. Politically he had no more power and was much more valuable to the west dead than alive.

Skripals:
Why kill him, years after he went over to the west? He has no current sensitive knowledge. Why kill his daughter as well? She lived in Russia at that time.
Why use an intricate why to kill him when a simple knife in the ribs would do? There was/is a big surge in knife related attacks in UK during that time. A military grade poison, deadlier than VX, yet they survived. Again so stupid of the FSB, but perfect for MSM/the West.

Navalny: The darling of the west, with all eyes on him, yet they try to kill him. Again a military grade poison, deadlier than VX and he is still alive. Where was it in/on the bottle or in his underpants? Instead of just hiring some thugs to off him and dump his body somewhere. So stupid of the FSB. Nobody else became sick, from this deadly poison either. Then to add to the foolishness, they let him out of the country to be treated in Germany. Now that was dumb, hey? MSM/the West had a field day with this one.

People prefer not to attend unsanctioned protests/rallies, as they can get arrested. Russia is much freer than you make out.

F: Poisonings covered.
Chechnya: response to a large terror attack. The west portray it as a false flag event.
Georgia: if you are talking about 2008, then that was Medvedev and Georgia started the shooting war, Russia finished it. Check the EU commission findings.
Crimea: with the maidan happening so close to home, he would have won the election without a problem. Crimea was a direct response to the geopolitical upheaval of the time.

Over the past few years bribery and corruption have been steadily weeded out, not stopped yet. So if you are guilty you will pay.

Constitutional changes were aimed at enshrining laws regarding the people of Russia into the constitution. Secondly the powers of the president were reduced and handed to the Duma. These are all forgotten and the only one everyone mentions is the term changes. So Mr Putin has been the president for 16 years, Merkel has been chancellor for nearly 16 years, so where is the problem here?

The final question to ask is: who does this all benefit? Not Russia that is for sure. Remember most Russians are not stupid and this is not a hollywood movie! I have my doubts though, about the ones that try to kill me on the roads daily!

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Old 13th Apr 2021, 13:28
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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How about the guy that got shot in the middle of Berlin by somebody who entered with some government issued fake name russian passport?
https://www.dw.com/en/georgians-deat...eve/a-53860911
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 13:40
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Aegis8 View Post
Good points a to c, well presented.
D is an assumption and the upcoming elections will give better view on this.
Regarding D: no we will not, as Navalnyi is conveniently in jail.

Originally Posted by Aegis8 View Post
E and F are another story altogether. My first reactions are: years of hollywood indoctrination have worked: all soviets/Russians are stupid and fools. And common sense has left the planet!
No one said all the Russians are stupid nor fools. The same applies to former soviet citizens. It would be against common sense to claim otherwise. It would be as stupid as stating all the US citizens are cowboys. Or UK citizens are earls and duchesses.


Originally Posted by Aegis8 View Post
I will touch on the ones I know.

Nemtsov: ....
Skripals: ....
Navalny: ....

People prefer not to attend unsanctioned protests/rallies, as they can get arrested. Russia is much freer than you make out.
Using something that is obvious to all parties makes a statement, mess with us and you will have it. A random stabbing/shooting etc leaves questions but the abovementioned way gives a striking hint to anyone with the idea to oppose. It isn't about the west. Putin couldn't care less. It is about domestic politics he is worried about. No one is going to overthrow him from outside.

Regarding participation in rallies: you just confirmed what I stated earlier about comparing protesters numbers to real voters/total population. Hence 50k people in the streets of Moscow is a BIG thing. And Putin knows that. And wants to get rid of anyone capable of gathering these masses.

Originally Posted by Aegis8 View Post
F: Poisonings covered.
Chechnya: response to a large terror attack. The west portray it as a false flag event.
Georgia: if you are talking about 2008, then that was Medvedev and Georgia started the shooting war, Russia finished it. Check the EU commission findings.
Crimea: with the maidan happening so close to home, he would have won the election without a problem. Crimea was a direct response to the geopolitical upheaval of the time.
Chechnya: even the Moscow building bombers weren't all chechnyans, What if it was done by FSB to boost a war to make Putin look great? Supportive elements are, and the Sugar Sack incident doesn't really clear the image, either. And Litvinenko (ex FSB/KGB) was murdered for telling this story.
Georgia: come on, Medvedev was a mere puppet with Putin pulling the strings. They really wanted the world to think that Medvedev would've been a strong leader making independent decisions. What on earth was Russia doing there in the first place and why did Russia then begin an attack war towards Gor and Tbilisi if it was merely a peace keeping action in Abkhazia and South Ossetia? Putin wanted to get rid of Saakasvili.
Crimea: Maidan protests were in February 2014, and at that time Putins approval ratings had been between 60-69% for over a year (comparing the approval ratings earlier being above 70% until 2011). Crimean annexation was in the turn of March 2014, and 24th of March the approval rating had peaked to 80%. Annexation of a part of a sovereign foreign country was undoubtedly boosting nationalist feelings within Russia and boosting Putins approval rating.

Originally Posted by Aegis8 View Post
Over the past few years bribery and corruption have been steadily weeded out, not stopped yet. So if you are guilty you will pay.

Constitutional changes were aimed at enshrining laws regarding the people of Russia into the constitution. Secondly the powers of the president were reduced and handed to the Duma. These are all forgotten and the only one everyone mentions is the term changes. So Mr Putin has been the president for 16 years, Merkel has been chancellor for nearly 16 years, so where is the problem here?
The difference in between Merkel and Putin is, that Merkel has been the chancellor without changing the legislation for her benefit and through open elections. It is quite a difference.
Originally Posted by Aegis8 View Post
The final question to ask is: who does this all benefit? Not Russia that is for sure. Remember most Russians are not stupid and this is not a hollywood movie! I have my doubts though, about the ones that try to kill me on the roads daily!
As stated before, Russian are not stupid as US citizens are not cowboys. But it does benefit the ones wanting to build up a New Russian Empire for their ruling.

Last edited by Beamr; 13th Apr 2021 at 14:03.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 13:43
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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I’d be amused if we could get 2 ‘disseminators’ debating with each other.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 13:45
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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It’s actually a pretty sad state of affairs that the Shenanigans of Stalin MkII and Mao MKII are killing and will continue to kill millions of their own, to protect their egos and their Chronies stolen wealth.

In all honesty, the Russian people are good people, the Chinese can be great fun, we all (generally) like beer, we all laugh. I propose a BBQ where each nation has to do a pantomime taking the Mickey out of their own leaders. Bring the buggers down to our level, then we can go back home with some great memories about how we laughed about how sociopathic, ignorant and egotistical our “elected” “leaders” and their chronies are.

It’s sad that the expansionist (disguised self protection from internal uprisings) focus of a couple of nutters is going to result in millions of deaths.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 13:51
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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I did hear from a Russian Military colleague that if things were to escalate we'd see much activity in Tiraspol beforehand (stuff flying in), forgive my lack of knowledge but would this be called a pincer movement? I doubt though this would happen.. it would imply a total invasion.

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Old 13th Apr 2021, 14:46
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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Ukraine as buffer

A colleague, who had grown up and been educated (very well as a PhD scientist) in E Germany, told me Russia viewed Ukrsine and many former satellites as a buffer against invasion (by Germany).
Whilst he accepted Europe invading Russia a third time would never happen, the fear is deeply ingrained in the Russian psyche.
So ex-satellites joining NATO only increases that imagined fear. He asked how the US would feel if Russia ignored the Monroe doctrine, built up the militaries of all the Central American states, including Mexico. The Cuban missile crisis notwithstanding, I think the point is a good one. If anything, Cuba demonstrated how sensitive the US was to neighbors undet Soviet influence.
If the Ukraine stops begging to join NATO or have a NATO build-up in response to the Russian build-up, it's possible the Russian forces would go home.
Of course, I am no expert and trusting Russia may be naive, but his logic did make sense, to me at least.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 16:18
  #109 (permalink)  
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@skydivernigel : I concur with your statements . I have been a few times professionally to Russia , the first time when it was still the USSR under Andropov ( who still emembers him ?) and when we in the West were so afraid of a Warsaw pact invasion (interesting concept the Warsaw pact for those old enough to remember) following the Prague Spring crush down . etc..
A few things struck me when discovering the real Russians was their absolute belief that we were going to invade them again .When we told them it was the other way around, they just laughed and replied : with what ? . So much for the propaganda from both sides.
Another thing we forget is that Russia has been invaded twice in recent history and defeated both invasion's at a huge human cost ( and the help of winter) and US and UK were never invaded . The psyche is different .

Having been around the globe a little since discussing ATC related matters with colleagues from those places, one can see that double standards exists from all sides . Ukraine and NATO are good examples. A large border separate Ukraine and Russia and Russia cannot accept to have US troops stationed at its borders, the same that US would not accept Russian troops at their border with in Canada or Mexico.
That is a fact , and last, as far as "democracy and dictatorships " it is amazing , if it was not tragic, to see that US politics today , whether under Trump or Biden, struggle with massive illegal immigration at their Southern border caused only by their continuous own support to violent anti democratic regimes in Central America.
The world is a mess, yes, but it always had been no ?
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 16:34
  #110 (permalink)  
 
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Lieutenant General Ben Hodges - I've heard him speak - very very impressive. Not your gung-ho kill everything type but measured, very thoughtful and crystal clear
Definitely a man to listen to
Wow. He might have been an efficient commander (although I don’t think he has seen any actual combat engagement) but I wouldn't let him anywhere near any kind a power position. His recent comments about how WWII was fought are nothing short of disgusting. His gung-ho approach to antagonise Russia is also quite worrying. I'd really like to see him re-enlist for front line cannon fodder service.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 19:27
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Originally Posted by skydivernigel View Post
A colleague, who had grown up and been educated (very well as a PhD scientist) in E Germany, told me Russia viewed Ukrsine and many former satellites as a buffer against invasion (by Germany).
Whilst he accepted Europe invading Russia a third time would never happen, the fear is deeply ingrained in the Russian psyche.
So ex-satellites joining NATO only increases that imagined fear. He asked how the US would feel if Russia ignored the Monroe doctrine, built up the militaries of all the Central American states, including Mexico. The Cuban missile crisis notwithstanding, I think the point is a good one. If anything, Cuba demonstrated how sensitive the US was to neighbors undet Soviet influence.
If the Ukraine stops begging to join NATO or have a NATO build-up in response to the Russian build-up, it's possible the Russian forces would go home.
Of course, I am no expert and trusting Russia may be naive, but his logic did make sense, to me at least.
Agreed,
the US would take action pretty quick if a Central American country ot Carribbean island became a Russian satellite, in fact it is doing that economically now to Venezuela, the west should not have encouraged Ukraine to change allegiances. They should have remained in the Russian sphere of influence, it’s not fair on the Ukrainian people but you cannot please all the people all the time and it is a lot better than a major confrontation.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 20:12
  #112 (permalink)  
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You could make the same case concerning Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Then there’s the rest of Georgia to the south. As well as Ukraine let’s add Moldova because of Transdnistra.

You could then suggest Poland fir a land corridor to Kaliningrad...

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me....
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 20:45
  #113 (permalink)  
 
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Careful

There are some utter arses still within the military that answer posts in the Express or Daily Mail; stupidly answering to Russian trolls.
The higher the rank, the more stupid you people are.. not everyone on here is HIS, but if you don’t know how they work then just shut up.
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 02:15
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
@skydivernigel : I concur with your statements . I have been a few times professionally to Russia , the first time when it was still the USSR under Andropov ( who still emembers him ?) and when we in the West were so afraid of a Warsaw pact invasion (interesting concept the Warsaw pact for those old enough to remember) following the Prague Spring crush down . etc..
A few things struck me when discovering the real Russians was their absolute belief that we were going to invade them again .When we told them it was the other way around, they just laughed and replied : with what ? . So much for the propaganda from both sides.
Another thing we forget is that Russia has been invaded twice in recent history and defeated both invasion's at a huge human cost ( and the help of winter) and US and UK were never invaded . The psyche is different .

Having been around the globe a little since discussing ATC related matters with colleagues from those places, one can see that double standards exists from all sides . Ukraine and NATO are good examples. A large border separate Ukraine and Russia and Russia cannot accept to have US troops stationed at its borders, the same that US would not accept Russian troops at their border with in Canada or Mexico.
That is a fact , and last, as far as "democracy and dictatorships " it is amazing , if it was not tragic, to see that US politics today , whether under Trump or Biden, struggle with massive illegal immigration at their Southern border caused only by their continuous own support to violent anti democratic regimes in Central America.
The world is a mess, yes, but it always had been no ?
Yours and Nigel’s post ignores the former satellites right of determination wrt allies. Let the Russians hold an opinion and paranoia. It complements their neighbors concerns.
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 03:26
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Originally Posted by West Coast View Post
Yours and Nigel’s post ignores the former satellites right of determination wrt allies. Let the Russians hold an opinion and paranoia. It complements their neighbors concerns.
Exactly. There's a reason why many of the former soviet countries prefer the NATO membership. Ukraine is a perfect sample. No one wants little green men in their backyard.
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 07:23
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Agreed - its counter -productive. The USSR always treat the Finns differently through the Cold War. They left them alone but made it pretty clear they weren't to join NATO - it worked quite well on both sides - Russia retained their buffer and the Finns kept their western ways without any paranoia about the USSR "taking over" and profited as a conduit for two way trade
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 08:15
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The USSR is long gone. Independent countries decide for themselves.
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 09:15
  #118 (permalink)  
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Yours and Nigel’s post ignores the former satellites right of determination wrt allies.
Guys, I know I am not in my natural habitat in this military forum so will not prolong this discussion too long anymore. just when one mention the right of self determination , and right to determine its allies, without looking at its consequences it is extremely simplistic. The right of self determination with its own " freedom fighters" , always labeled terrorists by the other side, has probably caused more deaths and misery since WW2 than the few conventional wars during the same period. . Just ask the Kurds for instance.

To come back to this tread, I am neither pro Russian nor pro Ukrainian, I have no horse in this race, just the impression of having seen the movie already before .
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 10:30
  #119 (permalink)  
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Just ask the Kurds for instance.
Or the Chechens, Tartars or Ughurs.

China and Russia are always fiercely defensive of the rights of countries to do as they wish within their own borders, which they regard as purely internal affairs and brook no interference from other nations.

The problem comes when they perceive some historic right to a “sphere of influence “ from the USSR and the authority to act in the same way within their neighbours territory.
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 10:33
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
the Finns kept their western ways without any paranoia about the USSR "taking over" and profited as a conduit for two way trade
Actually, it wasn't that simple. The 1961 note crisis was a good example. There was always the possibility of invasion, and that threat was used by soviets to influence the internal politics.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Note_Crisis

The way I see it, nothing has changed, ie Georgia, Ukraine.
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