Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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Start moving NATO troops into the area in meaningful numbers in response, and trigger article 5. Sanction the country with a total embargo?.
If you do not protect these countries NATO is not fit for purpose.
If you do not protect these countries NATO is not fit for purpose.
It will not end here if we don't contain this.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
It mov3 troop# where? Belarus birders with Lithuania/Poland, order of Ukraine, Birders of Serbia/Kosovo and Montenegro?
Lots if misdirection going on with, potentially, a move elsewhere.
Lots if misdirection going on with, potentially, a move elsewhere.
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Seems the West and in particular NATO has been soundly outplayed here.
Activate Article 5 and Putin will say he's been proved right on NATO expansion.
Don't activate and he'll say he was proved right that the West doesn't really have the will to protect newer member states.
We're going lose land here and it's anyone's guess how much.
Activate Article 5 and Putin will say he's been proved right on NATO expansion.
Don't activate and he'll say he was proved right that the West doesn't really have the will to protect newer member states.
We're going lose land here and it's anyone's guess how much.
Tashengurt: Poland and Lithuania are already NATO countries, so use of article 5 does not mean expansion to east.
Using article 5 in case little green unpatched men enter polish/lithuanian soil would be entirely sound.
Using article 5 in case little green unpatched men enter polish/lithuanian soil would be entirely sound.
The call must clearly come from the threatened member states and non-member states - if its all quiet in those states' leadership it feels like a public tacit acceptance should their borders be threatened or encroached by Russia, regardless of what goes on behind the scenes. Of course, Russia will say that it is from a minority supported by NATO/EU/Santa/whoever. And they'd know about that....
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My point is that Putin will use any military moves by NATO to 'prove' that the Eastern nations were only accepted into NATO to allow for aggressive expansionism.
Putin will use any rhetorics he and his posse come up with to justify his expansionist and imperialist actions. Whether it includes NATO movements or not is entirely insignificant.
So - what is to be done? (to quote V I Lenin)
What do we threaten them with?
Regretfully I think it's time some threats were made clear
What do we threaten them with?
Regretfully I think it's time some threats were made clear
What's Putin's aim with all of this? To secure yet more territory and "citizens"? To test NATO's resolve once and for all? Seems a little far-fetched, although, strategically, a move against eastern Ukraine could make sense. Anything more could risk disaster.
Personally I suspect this posturing is more for domestic consumption i.e. to keep him and Russia in the west's limelight and/or divert attention away from Russia's economic plight and bungled Covid response.
Either way he can't keep his troops camped out for that long in this weather.
Personally I suspect this posturing is more for domestic consumption i.e. to keep him and Russia in the west's limelight and/or divert attention away from Russia's economic plight and bungled Covid response.
Either way he can't keep his troops camped out for that long in this weather.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nvades-ukraine
The US has said it would send reinforcements to Nato’s eastern flank in the wake of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as imposing severe new economic measures, in a warning to Moscow on the eve of talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin.
Biden will also make clear to Putin that the US will not rule out future Ukrainian membership of Nato, as the Russian leader has demanded, a senior US official said.
Biden will also make clear to Putin that the US will not rule out future Ukrainian membership of Nato, as the Russian leader has demanded, a senior US official said.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
And from The Times. It would seem that, notwithstanding the talk of sanctions, no one is going to step forward to help Ukraine defend itself….
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...aine-gx8mbj37w
Western leaders plan reprisals if Russia invades Ukraine
Boris Johnson held talks last night with President Biden and other western leaders to agree a package of sanctions against Russia should it invade Ukraine.
The prime minister joined the leaders of Germany, France and Italy to form a joint strategy “to impose significant and severe harm on the Russian economy” before Biden’s high-stakes phone call with President Putin today.
Measures being considered by Nato leaders include cutting off Russia from the international financial settlement system, and restrictions on banks similar to those that crippled the Iranian economy over nuclear non-compliance. Biden is also expected to warn that the US would agree to deploy “additional forces and capabilities” to eastern Europe in response to any incursion.
However, officials made clear that the president would not threaten a direct US military response……
The White House fears that Putin believes he has a moment of opportunity to act because he sees the US and UK focusing on the pandemic, France in the throes of an election and Germany changing leader…..
The conference call had been requested by the US, Downing Street said. A spokesman said afterwards that Johnson and Biden had “emphasised the need to provide a united front in the face of Russian threats and hostility”, adding: “The prime minister said the UK would continue to use all the economic and diplomatic tools at its disposal to prevent any Russian aggression against Ukraine.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...aine-gx8mbj37w
Western leaders plan reprisals if Russia invades Ukraine
Boris Johnson held talks last night with President Biden and other western leaders to agree a package of sanctions against Russia should it invade Ukraine.
The prime minister joined the leaders of Germany, France and Italy to form a joint strategy “to impose significant and severe harm on the Russian economy” before Biden’s high-stakes phone call with President Putin today.
Measures being considered by Nato leaders include cutting off Russia from the international financial settlement system, and restrictions on banks similar to those that crippled the Iranian economy over nuclear non-compliance. Biden is also expected to warn that the US would agree to deploy “additional forces and capabilities” to eastern Europe in response to any incursion.
However, officials made clear that the president would not threaten a direct US military response……
The White House fears that Putin believes he has a moment of opportunity to act because he sees the US and UK focusing on the pandemic, France in the throes of an election and Germany changing leader…..
The conference call had been requested by the US, Downing Street said. A spokesman said afterwards that Johnson and Biden had “emphasised the need to provide a united front in the face of Russian threats and hostility”, adding: “The prime minister said the UK would continue to use all the economic and diplomatic tools at its disposal to prevent any Russian aggression against Ukraine.”
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/u...arty-5wstpsw3h
Ukraine conflict: Putin invites separatist leaders into his party
The leaders of Kremlin-backed separatist republics in east Ukraine have been made members of President Putin’s ruling United Russia party amid escalating tensions over the Donbas conflict zone.
Denis Pushilin, who heads the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), and Leonid Pasechnik, who leads the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), were handed party tickets by Dmitry Medvedev, United Russia’s chairman, at its glittering annual congress in Moscow.
Although Putin, 69, stepped down as the head of United Russia in 2012, the Kremlin said last week that he remained its “informal” leader.
Pushilin, 40, said his invitation to the annual congress and his membership of Putin’s party was evidence that United Russia “considers Donbas a part of greater Russia”.…. Russia says it has handed out half a million passports to residents of the DPR and the LPR. It has not yet recognised them as independent states, however.
Pushilin warned last week that he could appeal to Russia for military assistance if Ukraine tried to retake the breakaway republics by force.….
Ukraine conflict: Putin invites separatist leaders into his party
The leaders of Kremlin-backed separatist republics in east Ukraine have been made members of President Putin’s ruling United Russia party amid escalating tensions over the Donbas conflict zone.
Denis Pushilin, who heads the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), and Leonid Pasechnik, who leads the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), were handed party tickets by Dmitry Medvedev, United Russia’s chairman, at its glittering annual congress in Moscow.
Although Putin, 69, stepped down as the head of United Russia in 2012, the Kremlin said last week that he remained its “informal” leader.
Pushilin, 40, said his invitation to the annual congress and his membership of Putin’s party was evidence that United Russia “considers Donbas a part of greater Russia”.…. Russia says it has handed out half a million passports to residents of the DPR and the LPR. It has not yet recognised them as independent states, however.
Pushilin warned last week that he could appeal to Russia for military assistance if Ukraine tried to retake the breakaway republics by force.….
Ultimately Russia would like a land corridor to the Crimea. Can’t be taken out as easily as a bridge.
"Ultimately Russia would like a land corridor to the Crimea."
I think ultimately they'd like a land corridor to Calais
I think ultimately they'd like a land corridor to Calais
That said they are for sure interested in the former scope of the USSR as their target sphere of influence. The really explosive part in that regard are the Baltics. A Land corridor to Kaliningrad would mean occupying NATO territory and would be a complete No- Go. And this has to be absolutely clear and un- misunderstandable. A true Red Line. I support bringing in massive troops, Drones and Fighters to demonstrate the readiness to support this.
WRT to Ukraine for me the story is different. I heavily support massive sanctions in case of Russian Aggression. Provision of defensive armament (Stinger, Javelin&Co) to Ukraine. But no direct NATO troop involvement.
Red Lines have to be Red Lines. Invading NATO territory is a Red Line. Full stop. This shouldn't be watered down by semi- red lines for Non- NATO states which in the end are not kept. This opens up room for interpretation regarding the true Red Lines.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Ultimately Russia would like a land corridor to the Crimea.
A matched pair, so t9 speak, with a move to take a land corridor back to Kaliningrad and it’s warm water Baltic port.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria