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Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

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Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

Old 20th Apr 2021, 18:29
  #181 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
Possibly true, but there has to be a plausible purpose for these countries, all of whom have catastrophic birth rates well below replacement value, to start killing each other's most fertile population segment.
Russia is reacting to the Ukraine leadership's decision to demonize that country's substantial Russian minority.
When the head of a state is on record as desiring the removal/disappearance of a substantial minority, it usually results in civil war or genocide. Thus far, we've only had a desultory civil war, probably the best possible result given the Kiev mindset. Russia seems desperate to impress the Ukraine leadership that a renewed assault on the Donbass enclaves would be suicidal.
Given that the tenuous legitimacy of the Russian regime rests on its claims of protecting the Russian community, I'd think that a wave of 'ethnic cleansing' in the Donbass would be fatal for the current Russian leadership. Presumably it would be replaced by something much nastier.
China and Taiwan both agree, there is but one China. The 'one country, two systems' formulation has kept the peace for several decades under the US military aegis, which is now looking rather threadbare. Still, the value of Taiwan is its people and the technical know how they have achieved. Those Chinese assets evaporate in a war, which Beijing understands quite well. Beijing can afford to wait for a decade, while moving to show Taiwan that the US relationship is less attractive than a full reintegration with the motherland.
It would be interesting to see whether India will step in to try to woo Taiwan, as that country offers even more potential than China.
Have you ever been to Taiwan? The people would rather die than go back to being part of China. The problem is mainland China is also of the same mindset in reverse. They will do everything to reabsorb Taiwan. When that happens the rest of the world will make lots of noise but in the end do nothing.
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 21:56
  #182 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by highflyer40 View Post
Have you ever been to Taiwan? The people would rather die than go back to being part of China. The problem is mainland China is also of the same mindset in reverse. They will do everything to reabsorb Taiwan. When that happens the rest of the world will make lots of noise but in the end do nothing.
It may be that the Taiwanese would prefer to die rather than live under Xi's rule, but if so, they need to get a nuclear deterrent and make it public.
Otherwise, your forecast is likely correct.
I might add that there does not appear to be crushing anxiety in Taiwan, the news reports I've seen indicate the drought is getting more attention than the threat of a Chinese invasion.
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Old 21st Apr 2021, 07:35
  #183 (permalink)  
 
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There are a couple of threads about China & Taiwan - this one is for E Europe I think
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Old 21st Apr 2021, 09:50
  #184 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
Russia is reacting to the Ukraine leadership's decision to demonize that country's substantial Russian minority.
When the head of a state is on record as desiring the removal/disappearance of a substantial minority, it usually results in civil war or genocide.
Could you please tell more details of this?
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Old 21st Apr 2021, 09:52
  #185 (permalink)  
 
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And now back to your regular programme...
Article, video & photos etc in The Times.

Images show Russian ‘invasion force’ near border

Ukraine accused Russian-backed separatists of attempting to provoke its military yesterday, as satellite images indicate that the Kremlin has dramatically increased the number of its warplanes massing on the countries’ shared border and in Crimea.

There are growing fears that Russia could repeat its 2014 military incursion into Ukraine, when Crimea was annexed and Moscow provided support for a nascent separatist movement in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

Airborne troops, attack helicopters and reconnaissance drones have also been stationed near the border. Satellite images published by The Wall Street Journal show Su-30 fighters on a runway in Crimea. The photographs were taken on April 16, according to the newspaper. Images taken in late March do not show the aircraft. Images of locations elsewhere in the region show that other warplanes have also been flown in, including Su-34s and Su-27s.

“[The Russians] have appropriately deployed the various elements of air power that would be needed to establish air superiority over the battlefield and directly support the ground troops,” Philip Breedlove, a retired US air force general, told the newspaper. Breedlove was the top Nato military commander during the 2014 conflict.

Officials in Kiev said yesterday that the massed ranks of Russian troops already outweighed the forces that took part in the Kremlin’s operation in 2014. “Russian troops continue to arrive in close proximity to our borders in the northeast, in the east and in the south.

“In about a week they are expected to reach a combined force of over 120,000 troops,” said Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister. He added: “This does not mean that they will stop building up their forces at that number.”

Kuleba said that 30 Ukrainian troops had been killed on the front line since the start of the year, most by snipers. “Ukrainian troops have been ordered not to react to provocations,” he said. “A sniper shot is premeditated murder.”

In the Donbas region Ukrainian soldiers said they were under regular sniper fire from pro-Russian forces that they believe include members of the regular Russian army. Russia has denied sending troops to Ukraine and says that any of its servicemen there are “on vacation.”

More than 14,000 people have been killed since the conflict erupted.

At a front-line position near the east Ukrainian village of Shumy, a Ukrainian serviceman named Andriy pointed out where the bullets were coming from: “See the white roof over there? Look a little to right from it. This is the water tower. The snipers shoot from it. They want us to shoot back to destroy this watertower so that they can accuse Ukraine of destroying important infrastructure,” he said.

Another soldier said pro-Russian forces were barely 70 metres from their lines: “The snipers get into the ditch and click their triggers. The sound is very clear. They do it to show that they are there. This is psychological pressure.”

Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, said on Monday that Russia had concentrated more than 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s border and in Crimea. The figure was later revised downwards by the EU to more than 100,000.

The build up comes at a low ebb in relations between Washington and Moscow after the US imposed a series of sanctions and expulsions last week targeting Russian interests.

Russia has said the deployments are part of a three-week military drill to test combat readiness in response to what it calls threatening behaviour from Nato. It has said the exercise is due to end within two weeks.

William Burns, the CIA director, told Congress last week that the build up was probably an effort by Moscow to intimidate the Ukrainian government, as a warning to the Biden administration. “That build up has reached the point where it could also provide the basis for a limited military incursion as well,” said Burns. “So it’s something not only the United States but also our allies have to take very seriously.”

Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, said yesterday that Ukraine was seeking to destabilise the situation in the Donbas region. He also accused Nato of “provocative actions”.

Before imposing sanctions on Moscow last week President Biden, 78, spoke to President Putin and proposed a summit between the two leaders, saying he wanted a constructive relationship.

The meeting has yet to be confirmed but Putin, 68, will take part in a virtual climate conference tomorrow and on Friday organised by the White House.

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Old 22nd Apr 2021, 13:55
  #186 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56842763

Russia to pull troops back from near Ukraine

After weeks of tension over a build-up of Russian troops close to Ukraine's border, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered a number of units in the area back to their bases.

The EU estimated that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers had amassed near the border as well as in Crimea, which was seized and annexed by Russia in 2014.

Speaking in Crimea, Mr Shoigu said units on exercise would return to base.

The aims of the "snap checks" had been achieved, he added.

"The troops have demonstrated their ability to provide a credible defence for the country," he said, adding that he had instructed the commanders of units from the 58th and 41st armies as well as several airborne divisions to start returning to their "permanent bases" on Friday and to complete the operation by 1 May.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky raised the troop build-up with European leaders last week, and has since challenged Russia's President Vladimir Putin to meet him in the conflict zone. Nato leaders have also sounded the alarm and have called a summit in June when Russia will be high on the agenda. Although Russia has shrugged off the build-up as training exercises in response to "threatening" actions from Nato, it is also said to be planning to cordon off areas of the Black Sea to foreign shipping. Ukraine fears its ports could be affected. As tensions escalated between Russia and the West, US President Joe Biden contacted Mr Putin last week proposing a summit in a third country. In a state of the nation address on Wednesday, President Putin warned the West against "crossing the red line".

Conflict in eastern Ukraine broke out in 2014, after the seizure of Crimea from Ukraine. Russian-backed troops captured large areas of the Luhansk and Donetsk region and there have been a number of breaches of a ceasefire in the east in recent weeks. A Ukrainian soldier was fatally wounded in shelling on Thursday, in what Ukrainian forces said was a deliberate violation of the ceasefire. Some 14,000 people have died since the conflict began.
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Old 22nd Apr 2021, 16:48
  #187 (permalink)  
 
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Ukraine as buffer

That's a relief, really. For now at least. 👍🏿😎
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Old 22nd Apr 2021, 18:35
  #188 (permalink)  
 
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Keep blowin' hard

...
Puttin's FUSAG ?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/147304...flatable-army/

LFH
...
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Old 23rd Apr 2021, 17:38
  #189 (permalink)  
 
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The Russian art of Maskirovka.....
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Old 27th Apr 2021, 08:43
  #190 (permalink)  
 
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On another note, maybe Ukraine should've kept their nuclear weapons after the fall of the Soviet Union....

And another note, things like this does not really help when we want to talk Iran and North Korea into dropping their nuclear programmes..... on the contrary....

Maybe it's time to just accept that there are countries out there that will have nuclear weapons, and that's from the fear of being attacked rather than attack, cause we're showing again and again that smaller countries will get a kick to the face if a bigger neighbour will it.
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Old 27th Apr 2021, 11:17
  #191 (permalink)  
 
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Devil

to jmmoric

Be afraid that they will turn this weapon against you, to harm Russia.
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Old 27th Apr 2021, 11:22
  #192 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by usedtobeATC View Post
to jmmoric

Be afraid that they will turn this weapon against you, to harm Russia.
Nah, I'm too far away....
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Old 4th May 2021, 10:16
  #193 (permalink)  
 
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If Mr. Zelensky is so unpopular he will be replaced.

NATO will intervene in the case of a hot war

The real question we should be asking is, WW3 when ?
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Old 4th May 2021, 10:41
  #194 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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Juppie902,

The Budapest agreement was signed by the UK and USA and - to a lesser degree - France, but not NATO.

It provides security assurances, such as going to the UNSC if their territorial integrity is threatened, but it does not impose any a legal obligations of military assistance - and hasn’t proved of any great value so far.

The Baltic states joined NATO and have allied tripwire forces based on their territory, yet still are considered vulnerable. Ukraine? Don’t hold your breath....


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Old 5th May 2021, 06:41
  #195 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
It provides security assurances, such as going to the UNSC if their territorial integrity is threatened...
https://youtu.be/qPJDPSUevt4
The problem, of course, is that when one of the 'Big Five' is involved - lookin' at you Putin - their veto makes the organisation a paper tiger.

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