Ukraine Crisis 2014
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The Kremlin has, in inter-governmental talks with Finland and Sweden since 2012, urged both countries to forgo NATO membership and join a Russia-led Eastern Alliance, a prospect that neither of the two Nordic states has shown any appetite for.
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I seem to remember a little country in the middle east being occupied several years ago by its neigbhor and we assembled a coalition of the willing to evict them. If Putin goes further and decides that the Ukraine belongs to him should we not do the same.
Three ways NATO can bolster Ukraine?s security - The Washington Post
Some how I don't think uniforms and meals are going to cut it for the Ukrainians.
Three ways NATO can bolster Ukraine?s security - The Washington Post
Obama administration offered uniforms and military meals.
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It won't, and neither will pussyfooting around the edge of sanctions either, you have to put in place those sanctions that will effect them and accept the pain it causes to yourselves as well.
The "and we will now put in more sanctions if you do not stop" is not bothering him in the slightest.
Personally I think taking the threat of Military action off the table early on was an error, you might now have a twig instead of a big stick, but the threat of that twig whilst on the table is at least a deterrent that push and it could turn really ugly really fast, even if you never intend to use that option.
The "and we will now put in more sanctions if you do not stop" is not bothering him in the slightest.
Personally I think taking the threat of Military action off the table early on was an error, you might now have a twig instead of a big stick, but the threat of that twig whilst on the table is at least a deterrent that push and it could turn really ugly really fast, even if you never intend to use that option.
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A coalition of the willing to Ukraine?
Not unless Ukraine discovers gas on its territory rather than just in a pipe that runs across its territory. And, the approval for the coalition would run hard against a veto from the perpetrator in the Security Council. Ah.. it's just like the good old days….
The baffling thing about the recent Russian assaults on the Ukrainian military bases in Crimea is how unnecessary there were. Ukraine seems to have accepted the reality of Putin's fake referendum and was leaving anyway. Now Putin looks like an obvious bully to everyone rather than just an electoral puppeteer.
Not unless Ukraine discovers gas on its territory rather than just in a pipe that runs across its territory. And, the approval for the coalition would run hard against a veto from the perpetrator in the Security Council. Ah.. it's just like the good old days….
The baffling thing about the recent Russian assaults on the Ukrainian military bases in Crimea is how unnecessary there were. Ukraine seems to have accepted the reality of Putin's fake referendum and was leaving anyway. Now Putin looks like an obvious bully to everyone rather than just an electoral puppeteer.
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Damn. If only they'd spread that news around a few weeks ago. 
Although, if the eastern basin is - or is manufactured to be - majority Russian, then the argument of self determination could just shuffle that off to the east in the same complicated, messy but broadly reasonable way as it did for Crimea.
Although, if the eastern basin is - or is manufactured to be - majority Russian, then the argument of self determination could just shuffle that off to the east in the same complicated, messy but broadly reasonable way as it did for Crimea.
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The irony of this whole mess is that Putin is effectively doing NATO a big Service.
You couldn't create a better PR for joining even if you tried.
When the dust has settled he might find even more Countries around him trying to get into the 'Save Haven' and shying away from Russia.
Invading Neighbours isn't exactly the kind of trust building measure that is the basis for stable long-term relationships of Nations.
I always thought Putin to be a highly rational and clever Guy. This whole saga makes me heavily re-think this assessment.
In the bigger scheme of things he is not doing his cause (Come join the Eastern Alliance against the West) a favor. Short term tactics with detrimental long-term effect. Panicking?
You couldn't create a better PR for joining even if you tried.
When the dust has settled he might find even more Countries around him trying to get into the 'Save Haven' and shying away from Russia.
Invading Neighbours isn't exactly the kind of trust building measure that is the basis for stable long-term relationships of Nations.
I always thought Putin to be a highly rational and clever Guy. This whole saga makes me heavily re-think this assessment.
In the bigger scheme of things he is not doing his cause (Come join the Eastern Alliance against the West) a favor. Short term tactics with detrimental long-term effect. Panicking?
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Within Russia it will make him seem very important. There is a slight distorting effect when you've never got out to see the world that your own bit of it and the events there are of supreme importance. It is my guess that guys like Cde P are playing to the local audience at least as much as overseas because they really have a lot invested in staying in power. An issue of minor importance to the US takes on epic proportions in Russia.
I think fellows like Cde P love any chance to show they've thumbed their noses at the Americans and, further down the list, at Britain. This is essentially because their minions and those who dream of becoming their minions feel inferior to Americans and, down the list, Britons and have to be encouraged to revile something that they are obviously attracted by. He has to give them an example of how he is strong and the people they secretly admire are weak. If you offered them a US passport they'd be off tomorrow but since they are stuck they might as well enjoy chewing on Cde P's sour rasins.
You can see it in Britain where some people claim to hate Americans and then display all the vile arrogance that they accuse Americans of having whilst claiming to have a much better sense of humour and being smug about how modest they are. Meanwhile the same people tend, in my limited experience, to slurp up American TV, films and music. It seems to me that there are manipulative types in the UK who like to encourage all of this because you can't have your serfs admiring someone else and not listening to you.
I think fellows like Cde P love any chance to show they've thumbed their noses at the Americans and, further down the list, at Britain. This is essentially because their minions and those who dream of becoming their minions feel inferior to Americans and, down the list, Britons and have to be encouraged to revile something that they are obviously attracted by. He has to give them an example of how he is strong and the people they secretly admire are weak. If you offered them a US passport they'd be off tomorrow but since they are stuck they might as well enjoy chewing on Cde P's sour rasins.
You can see it in Britain where some people claim to hate Americans and then display all the vile arrogance that they accuse Americans of having whilst claiming to have a much better sense of humour and being smug about how modest they are. Meanwhile the same people tend, in my limited experience, to slurp up American TV, films and music. It seems to me that there are manipulative types in the UK who like to encourage all of this because you can't have your serfs admiring someone else and not listening to you.
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I thought it looked like Putin was on the wane for a while, might just be the old trick to try and beef up support at home. It usually fails in the long run.
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In an effort to try and understand Russia these days, at least to some degree, I wonder if their experiences from the past 25 years might matter a bit.
For example, Western demands for rapid reforms during the 90s was / is seen by some (many?) Russians as a continuation of the Cold War by other means. NATO expansion, missile defence plans etc. probably haven't helped to moderate that view much. I believe some people call this a "Cold Peace," a term which has re-surfaced now and then, and perhaps especially now.
Assuming that that the annual presidential speeches to the Russian Federal Assembly (English transcripts available at eng.kremlin.ru) over the last ten years or so can be used to tell which policies will be carried out in the future, I believe increasing assertiveness by the Russians was to be expected.
I also wonder if Putin is influenced by Aleksandr Dugin and Eurasianism, and if so, how far is he willing to go? Does he realise that Russia may be hurting in the long run because of all this?
For example, Western demands for rapid reforms during the 90s was / is seen by some (many?) Russians as a continuation of the Cold War by other means. NATO expansion, missile defence plans etc. probably haven't helped to moderate that view much. I believe some people call this a "Cold Peace," a term which has re-surfaced now and then, and perhaps especially now.
Assuming that that the annual presidential speeches to the Russian Federal Assembly (English transcripts available at eng.kremlin.ru) over the last ten years or so can be used to tell which policies will be carried out in the future, I believe increasing assertiveness by the Russians was to be expected.
I also wonder if Putin is influenced by Aleksandr Dugin and Eurasianism, and if so, how far is he willing to go? Does he realise that Russia may be hurting in the long run because of all this?
blah blah blah missile defence blah blah blah
The integration into the NATO missile defense network is not a threat to a neighbor (Russia). The whole point of the missiles in that integrated system is defense, not attack.
As to NATO expansion being seen as a threat, I can see that in a strategic context if you are a Power viewing other Powers. Understood.
Trouble is, there are nations all over Europe who see Russia as a threat, a local bully, and a difficult to deal with neighbor. So, they do something about it. Russia is not the only nation with a security concern.
Assuming that that the annual presidential speeches to the Russian Federal Assembly (English transcripts available at eng.kremlin.ru) over the last ten years or so can be used to tell which policies will be carried out in the future, I believe increasing assertiveness by the Russians was to be expected.
I also wonder if Putin is influenced by Aleksandr Dugin and Eurasianism, and if so, how far is he willing to go? Does he realise that Russia may be hurting in the long run because of all this?
I also wonder if Putin is influenced by Aleksandr Dugin and Eurasianism, and if so, how far is he willing to go? Does he realise that Russia may be hurting in the long run because of all this?
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The integration into the NATO missile defense network is not a threat to a neighbor (Russia). The whole point of the missiles in that integrated system is defense, not attack.
As to NATO expansion being seen as a threat, I can see that in a strategic context if you are a Power viewing other Powers. Understood.
For my money, one of the great political opportunities missed was the chance to try and talk Russia into eventually joining NATO after the wall fell.
"Nigel Farage says" told me all I need to know about that particular link....
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It seems that things might be getting a bit more stressful.
So if you are a Ukrainian military strategist, what would be thinking now? Apart from the "Oh we are so screwed".
If you are going to go down, it might as well be fighting. So what out of the box thinking could you do do make sure Putin gets blood nose and take the shine of his victory? The west is not going to help, so is anything is on the table?
They may not have much, but I'm think suiciide run to the Kremlin, not sur e of the range of there ground attack aircraft. Suicide run against a few nuclear power stations, should be enough to have to pull resources to deal with the issue.
So if you are a Ukrainian military strategist, what would be thinking now? Apart from the "Oh we are so screwed".
If you are going to go down, it might as well be fighting. So what out of the box thinking could you do do make sure Putin gets blood nose and take the shine of his victory? The west is not going to help, so is anything is on the table?
They may not have much, but I'm think suiciide run to the Kremlin, not sur e of the range of there ground attack aircraft. Suicide run against a few nuclear power stations, should be enough to have to pull resources to deal with the issue.
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Well I would doubt they would want a repercussion of Chenobyl, but they do have lots of reactors near the border, they called on the assistance of the world to ensure their continuing safety when this all cracked off.
They do however have the main Russian gas pipelines flowing through the country which supplys 80% of the Russian gas and could pretty much destroy the infrastructure to that as they retreated, a bit like Saddam and the oilfields. That would hurt Russia economically in the short term. Surprised they haven't used that as a bargaining chip on both sides, telling Europe if they get invaded and no one helps they will destroy it.
They do however have the main Russian gas pipelines flowing through the country which supplys 80% of the Russian gas and could pretty much destroy the infrastructure to that as they retreated, a bit like Saddam and the oilfields. That would hurt Russia economically in the short term. Surprised they haven't used that as a bargaining chip on both sides, telling Europe if they get invaded and no one helps they will destroy it.
NATO, after a huge degree of internal discussion and political wrangling, offered Russian particpation in the NATO BMD system, which is optomised to protect Europe from weapons launched from the Middle East. Clearly, being able to use sensors placed in Southern Russia would increase SA and warning times, and would be similarly beneficial for Russia. This offer was made at the Detroit Summit three years ago in an effort to demonstrate this wasn't an anti-Russian system, but the invitation to participate was stiffly ignored by Russia. Similarly NATO declared - and adopted the equivalent of an 'Open Skies' regime to demonstrate to Russia that there were/are now no NATO plans about defence against a Russian attack. More fools us, perhaps.
I've seen no media reporting highlighting this fact; instead we are seeing the creeping acceptance of the 'victimisation' of Russia - such as the lost of Soviet prestige when they came out of the wrong end of the Cold War, reforms 'forced upon' them in the 1990s, former Soviet territories 'taken over' by the West, the unfair 'giving' of Crimea to Ukraine SSR in c 1956, NATO on their borders, comparison with Falklands/Iraq/Afghanistan/Scotland etc etc.
B&llocks, I say. None of this justifies the annexation of Crimea in the way that was executed. For those still in, have a look at the UNCLAS cross-Government LTT on Ukraine. They are particularly well-written and very, very good at demolishing the arguments of 'Well, we went into Iraq...what's the difference?' etc. Pity these arguments aren't aired as much as they should be.
I've seen no media reporting highlighting this fact; instead we are seeing the creeping acceptance of the 'victimisation' of Russia - such as the lost of Soviet prestige when they came out of the wrong end of the Cold War, reforms 'forced upon' them in the 1990s, former Soviet territories 'taken over' by the West, the unfair 'giving' of Crimea to Ukraine SSR in c 1956, NATO on their borders, comparison with Falklands/Iraq/Afghanistan/Scotland etc etc.
B&llocks, I say. None of this justifies the annexation of Crimea in the way that was executed. For those still in, have a look at the UNCLAS cross-Government LTT on Ukraine. They are particularly well-written and very, very good at demolishing the arguments of 'Well, we went into Iraq...what's the difference?' etc. Pity these arguments aren't aired as much as they should be.
Last edited by Whenurhappy; 28th Mar 2014 at 18:34.