Here it comes: Syria
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Russia doubles down in Syria
"Russia may not want a war with Turkey, but there are signs it is softening up Russian public opinion in case it needs to make the case for conflict. By so doing it is playing a dangerous game as it is upping the stakes in the Syrian war and thus challenging its rivals to respond or back down. A recent sign of this is a subtle, and mostly overlooked, shift in a small section of the Russian media concerning responsibility for the bombing of the Russian airliner over the Egyptian Sinai in October late last year.
Relations between the two countries, which have been rivals for centuries, took a sharp downturn in November after the Turks shot down a Russian jet on the border with Syria. There was a brief flurry of bellicose rhetoric from Moscow and Ankara, but, with neither side wanting a real shooting match to break out that then settled down. However, with the war in Syria reaching another critical phase the rhetoric has begun to flare again.
Last autumn Moscow quickly blamed ISIS linked terrorists for bringing down the Russian Airbus A321 over Sinai with the lost of 224 lives. Most Western intelligence agencies concurred, albeit after a longer period of investigation. This didn’t change, even after the Russian jet was shot down by the Turks. Russia later named ISIS as responsible for the Sinai attack, and ISIS itself published a photograph of what it said was the bomb.
However this month, a Kremlin friendly Russian newspaper Kommersant published an article suggesting that in fact the Turkish ultra nationalist terror group The Grey Wolves may have been behind the Sinai attack, claiming that a baggage handler suspected of planting the bomb had been in Turkey shortly before the atrocity. This story was followed up by the Sputnik news service which is a mouthpiece for the Kremlin. It repeated the implausible idea that the Islamist hating Grey Wolves were in league with ISIS. Increasing numbers of Russians are also buying into the idea that ISIS is supported by the Turkish state, another idea promulgated by Kremlin sources.
So, if this is a classic propaganda push the question is why now? The answer appears to be the situation in Syria."..............[more]
"Russia may not want a war with Turkey, but there are signs it is softening up Russian public opinion in case it needs to make the case for conflict. By so doing it is playing a dangerous game as it is upping the stakes in the Syrian war and thus challenging its rivals to respond or back down. A recent sign of this is a subtle, and mostly overlooked, shift in a small section of the Russian media concerning responsibility for the bombing of the Russian airliner over the Egyptian Sinai in October late last year.
Relations between the two countries, which have been rivals for centuries, took a sharp downturn in November after the Turks shot down a Russian jet on the border with Syria. There was a brief flurry of bellicose rhetoric from Moscow and Ankara, but, with neither side wanting a real shooting match to break out that then settled down. However, with the war in Syria reaching another critical phase the rhetoric has begun to flare again.
Last autumn Moscow quickly blamed ISIS linked terrorists for bringing down the Russian Airbus A321 over Sinai with the lost of 224 lives. Most Western intelligence agencies concurred, albeit after a longer period of investigation. This didn’t change, even after the Russian jet was shot down by the Turks. Russia later named ISIS as responsible for the Sinai attack, and ISIS itself published a photograph of what it said was the bomb.
However this month, a Kremlin friendly Russian newspaper Kommersant published an article suggesting that in fact the Turkish ultra nationalist terror group The Grey Wolves may have been behind the Sinai attack, claiming that a baggage handler suspected of planting the bomb had been in Turkey shortly before the atrocity. This story was followed up by the Sputnik news service which is a mouthpiece for the Kremlin. It repeated the implausible idea that the Islamist hating Grey Wolves were in league with ISIS. Increasing numbers of Russians are also buying into the idea that ISIS is supported by the Turkish state, another idea promulgated by Kremlin sources.
So, if this is a classic propaganda push the question is why now? The answer appears to be the situation in Syria."..............[more]
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A view from inside Russia, if you like :-)
The media mentioned (Kommersant) is obviously not the one being read by half-witted fans of Kremlin whose anger could be easily manipulated. It is rather a newspaper for educated white collars who are massively losing their office jobs during the ongoing economical crisis. And Sputnik is nearly unknown (e.g. I just heard about it but unlikely ever browsed). In general, the topic of "Turkish trace" in the A321 tragedy over Sinai is not of big interest here because terrorists have no nationality.
The media mentioned (Kommersant) is obviously not the one being read by half-witted fans of Kremlin whose anger could be easily manipulated. It is rather a newspaper for educated white collars who are massively losing their office jobs during the ongoing economical crisis. And Sputnik is nearly unknown (e.g. I just heard about it but unlikely ever browsed). In general, the topic of "Turkish trace" in the A321 tragedy over Sinai is not of big interest here because terrorists have no nationality.
With all the international concern about the Russian killing of uninvolved civilians in its bombing raids, I wonder if a major factor has been missed.
'Western' coalition air forces take some pride in making clear that their airborne weapons are carefully targeted. It seems that they do, mostly, manage to minimise so-called collateral damage. They can only do this by using precision guided munitions (PGMs) - or smart weapons - the ultimate of which is, perhaps, Brimstone.
If the Aviationist film of Tu-22Ms dropping FAB 250 dumb bombs is to be believed (ORAC's 26 Jan post, #1715), that could be the major cause of much collateral damage. FAB 250s are 1940s-era unguided bombs. In order to destroy a point target using these weapons, you have to use Second World War 'carpet bombing' techniques. It's the blitzkrieg, all over again.
I don't see any journalistic reports citing this as a cause of the unacceptable human tragedies apparently being caused by the Russian Air Force raids.
airsound
'Western' coalition air forces take some pride in making clear that their airborne weapons are carefully targeted. It seems that they do, mostly, manage to minimise so-called collateral damage. They can only do this by using precision guided munitions (PGMs) - or smart weapons - the ultimate of which is, perhaps, Brimstone.
If the Aviationist film of Tu-22Ms dropping FAB 250 dumb bombs is to be believed (ORAC's 26 Jan post, #1715), that could be the major cause of much collateral damage. FAB 250s are 1940s-era unguided bombs. In order to destroy a point target using these weapons, you have to use Second World War 'carpet bombing' techniques. It's the blitzkrieg, all over again.
I don't see any journalistic reports citing this as a cause of the unacceptable human tragedies apparently being caused by the Russian Air Force raids.
airsound
Last edited by airsound; 15th Feb 2016 at 20:24. Reason: Tidying up
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2 airsound
A couple of comments on your latest post....
1. Tu-22.
Footage with Tu-22 dropping dumb bombs from above the clouds could be found "in tonns" in the TV archives all over the world. I saw such promo footage even in early 70's being a school boy. One may show B-52 making carpet bombing over Vietnam, and so what?
In Syria, Tu-22M3 (as well as Tu-160's) were used just a few times, by the way. Just to show that the region could be reached from the Russian territory. Operation wise it makes no sense because when you have to fly that far, the weight of bombs that can be delivered is the same as for Su-24 operated locally (and even less than for Su-34).
2. Dumb vs smart.
In the conditions like those in Syrian skies currently (no air defence, no jammers, etc.) the intelligence onboard the moderns aircraft (hi-pres. navigation, radars, IR, powerful computers, etc.) can well compensate lack of self-guiding capabilities in munitions. Those interested might have a look at the following 40+ years old publication reporting that dispersion is measured in a few tens of meters:
https://books.google.co.il/books?id=...errors&f=false
Moreover, having smart munitions is not enough. Correct target identification is another "must have" component. We all hear periodically that USAF hit some civilians in the area (the last case was a hospital in Afghanistan). Most likely the bombs/missiles did not miss the target, but were given a wrong one. And this is the point where having ground based forces is important (that could see with their own eyes where is a hospital and where is the terrorist command post). The Russian do have such a capability through the Assad's forces and spies/collaborators who are everywhere in the area as they are indistinguishable from the common population.
A couple of comments on your latest post....
1. Tu-22.
Footage with Tu-22 dropping dumb bombs from above the clouds could be found "in tonns" in the TV archives all over the world. I saw such promo footage even in early 70's being a school boy. One may show B-52 making carpet bombing over Vietnam, and so what?
In Syria, Tu-22M3 (as well as Tu-160's) were used just a few times, by the way. Just to show that the region could be reached from the Russian territory. Operation wise it makes no sense because when you have to fly that far, the weight of bombs that can be delivered is the same as for Su-24 operated locally (and even less than for Su-34).
2. Dumb vs smart.
In the conditions like those in Syrian skies currently (no air defence, no jammers, etc.) the intelligence onboard the moderns aircraft (hi-pres. navigation, radars, IR, powerful computers, etc.) can well compensate lack of self-guiding capabilities in munitions. Those interested might have a look at the following 40+ years old publication reporting that dispersion is measured in a few tens of meters:
https://books.google.co.il/books?id=...errors&f=false
Moreover, having smart munitions is not enough. Correct target identification is another "must have" component. We all hear periodically that USAF hit some civilians in the area (the last case was a hospital in Afghanistan). Most likely the bombs/missiles did not miss the target, but were given a wrong one. And this is the point where having ground based forces is important (that could see with their own eyes where is a hospital and where is the terrorist command post). The Russian do have such a capability through the Assad's forces and spies/collaborators who are everywhere in the area as they are indistinguishable from the common population.
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Russia Claims Turkey for Systematic Shell Attacks upon Syria
Russia Claims Turkey for Systematic Shell Attacks upon Syria
Russia Claims Turkey for Systematic Shell Attacks upon Syria
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Strange world isn't it,
In a war that both the East and West have been dragged into it with the aim of defeating Daesh, it appears that the mistakes on both sides have resulted in an escalation in rhetoric and the ramping up of aggressive posturing by both parties involved that may ultimately mean the only winners could be those that both sides had originally set out to destroy.
In a war that both the East and West have been dragged into it with the aim of defeating Daesh, it appears that the mistakes on both sides have resulted in an escalation in rhetoric and the ramping up of aggressive posturing by both parties involved that may ultimately mean the only winners could be those that both sides had originally set out to destroy.
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The air war in particular has been extensively reported bravely by ITNs Channel 4 news team (UK) these last two evenings. Showed pictures of the remains of a Russian built surface to surface missile that had struck a hospital. Today showed pictures of what they described were bursting cluster bombs in an urban area of Aleppo. Overhead a jet plane could be glimpsed at some altitude - a Mig 29 or Su 27 to my untrained eye I guessed.
The bombing and its results could be variously described as ruthless, or professional or deliberate or a crime. Certainly C4 said many in fact mostly civilians including children were killed - left " eviscerated and limbless" I think they said.
I'm not a real gambler but I would guess to bet Assad and his backer President Putin are getting towards the verge of a victory this year, based on this news report.400 odd sorties by Russian planes in the last week (think I heard that right) are tipping the balance their way. Their simple aim to remove the so-called rebels entirely and restore full Syrian Governmental order.
Q. What was Britain trying to achieve again with our limited air strikes, someone remind me?
The bombing and its results could be variously described as ruthless, or professional or deliberate or a crime. Certainly C4 said many in fact mostly civilians including children were killed - left " eviscerated and limbless" I think they said.
I'm not a real gambler but I would guess to bet Assad and his backer President Putin are getting towards the verge of a victory this year, based on this news report.400 odd sorties by Russian planes in the last week (think I heard that right) are tipping the balance their way. Their simple aim to remove the so-called rebels entirely and restore full Syrian Governmental order.
Q. What was Britain trying to achieve again with our limited air strikes, someone remind me?
Or was that a rhetorical question?
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HS as stupid as ever!
The UK is targeting ISIS as declared by your government. Perhaps you will understand these things one day, but I'm not holding my breath.
When will you learn?
The UK is targeting ISIS as declared by your government. Perhaps you will understand these things one day, but I'm not holding my breath.
When will you learn?
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2. Dumb vs smart.
In the conditions like those in Syrian skies currently (no air defence, no jammers, etc.) the intelligence onboard the moderns aircraft (hi-pres. navigation, radars, IR, powerful computers, etc.) can well compensate lack of self-guiding capabilities in munitions. Those interested might have a look at the following 40+ years old publication reporting that dispersion is measured in a few tens of meters:
In the conditions like those in Syrian skies currently (no air defence, no jammers, etc.) the intelligence onboard the moderns aircraft (hi-pres. navigation, radars, IR, powerful computers, etc.) can well compensate lack of self-guiding capabilities in munitions. Those interested might have a look at the following 40+ years old publication reporting that dispersion is measured in a few tens of meters:
You also make a point about target ID, which I agree partly with. However you then completely undermine your point by saying Assad's forces are giving Russian aircraft the intelligence on where the bad guys are. You fail to realise that in taking Assad's forces' target ID at face value, Russia is either complicit in mass genocide, or being manipulated beyond belief. Assad wants to quell the uprising, which means taking the rebels out. Are you that naive?
Milosevic, Karadic, etc, thought they could get away with barbarity such as this in the FRY and Kosovo but their forces were neutered and the leaders later tried for war crimes.
The way I see things right now, Putin is lining himself to stand alongside that other abhorrent idealist that fell with Berlin! This will not end well.
Hangarshuffle,
I'm not sure if you're trying to wind people up or if you truly do not understand.
You are confusing a national conflict led by a corrupt dictator, aided by an equally corrupt foreign power against his own people and their children with a legitimately sanctioned international mission against a barbaric, sadistic and very dangerous terrorist organisation with the aim of saving life, preventing suffering and preserving your way of life.
As for "limited air strikes", we can only attack what we know to be targets. You complain if our forces don't attack enough, you go berserk if they they attack too much and increase the risk of collateral damage.
You will whinge about it either way in your usual anti-military way.
I'm not sure if you're trying to wind people up or if you truly do not understand.
You are confusing a national conflict led by a corrupt dictator, aided by an equally corrupt foreign power against his own people and their children with a legitimately sanctioned international mission against a barbaric, sadistic and very dangerous terrorist organisation with the aim of saving life, preventing suffering and preserving your way of life.
As for "limited air strikes", we can only attack what we know to be targets. You complain if our forces don't attack enough, you go berserk if they they attack too much and increase the risk of collateral damage.
You will whinge about it either way in your usual anti-military way.
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CM, bit of both.
Just be trawling through the online papers, the west's efforts in the war amount to very little print coverage today.
No one cares y'know? It just doesn't factor to the average Briton-paper editors probably know this anyway. Those RAF crews flying combat Syria at great risk are being made to risk their lives for exactly what? Who cares here>?
Its hard to see what we are doing will do anything other than what? What's the outcome now? Give me a forecast then?
Our RAF aircraft target ISIL known targets which are deemed to be fighting the people we want to ultimately run Syria.
But in a parallel situation, Russia targets the people we want to run the country in a far more brutal, yet effective manner.
Assad's winning this hands down. We backed the wrong horse, in a way.
We (RAF I mean) did try to help some of the people. Its just seems to me that Putin has out thought and out maneuverer
d the west, entirely.
I take offence at people who say I am anti-military/whinging. Just a casual civilian observer these days, taking occasional time to understand the world about me - you post what you want on PPRUNE. If it offends the very conservative traditional I truly don't care, in fact I enjoy it.
*If a Russian plane was shot down, whilst it was cluster bombing an obviously urban civilian area in Syria, and the crews were as fortunate or not to end in western backed hands, would they tried as war criminals? This could happen. Are they war criminals? Likely they will die on the spot, but who knows.
Whatever we have done here, it just hasn't worked to the benefit of bringing an end to the conflict or sparing the entirely innocent in Syria from the wrath of air power or obscene on-the- ground terrorism. Perhaps it was an honest try by decent people, but has it worked>?
Time to call it off and end it, really. Cease the RAF air ops There's only going to be one winner. HS.
Just be trawling through the online papers, the west's efforts in the war amount to very little print coverage today.
No one cares y'know? It just doesn't factor to the average Briton-paper editors probably know this anyway. Those RAF crews flying combat Syria at great risk are being made to risk their lives for exactly what? Who cares here>?
Its hard to see what we are doing will do anything other than what? What's the outcome now? Give me a forecast then?
Our RAF aircraft target ISIL known targets which are deemed to be fighting the people we want to ultimately run Syria.
But in a parallel situation, Russia targets the people we want to run the country in a far more brutal, yet effective manner.
Assad's winning this hands down. We backed the wrong horse, in a way.
We (RAF I mean) did try to help some of the people. Its just seems to me that Putin has out thought and out maneuverer
d the west, entirely.
I take offence at people who say I am anti-military/whinging. Just a casual civilian observer these days, taking occasional time to understand the world about me - you post what you want on PPRUNE. If it offends the very conservative traditional I truly don't care, in fact I enjoy it.
*If a Russian plane was shot down, whilst it was cluster bombing an obviously urban civilian area in Syria, and the crews were as fortunate or not to end in western backed hands, would they tried as war criminals? This could happen. Are they war criminals? Likely they will die on the spot, but who knows.
Whatever we have done here, it just hasn't worked to the benefit of bringing an end to the conflict or sparing the entirely innocent in Syria from the wrath of air power or obscene on-the- ground terrorism. Perhaps it was an honest try by decent people, but has it worked>?
Time to call it off and end it, really. Cease the RAF air ops There's only going to be one winner. HS.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Operation wise it makes no sense because when you have to fly that far, the weight of bombs that can be delivered is the same as for Su-24 operated locally (and even less than for Su-34).........In the conditions like those in Syrian skies currently (no air defence, no jammers, etc.) the intelligence onboard the moderns aircraft (hi-pres. navigation, radars, IR, powerful computers, etc.) can well compensate lack of self-guiding capabilities in munitions. Those interested might have a look at the following 40+ years old publication reporting that dispersion is measured in a few tens of meters
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"Appears" is the key word here. A fragment with an aircraft, and then a fragment looking like bombing/shelling of some city. One can assemble whatever footage on his/her home computer. Could be A-10, Tornado, and so on and so forth, including nuke "mushrooms"....Nothing but a proofless propaganda form some jihaddists; sad that it is copied on such forums.
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Looks like untargeted, pretty indiscriminate bombing to me using cluster weapons over a large built-up area.
Unlike the Western targeted precision strikes!
HS, How does withdrawing the RAF element help the situation. They are helping alleviate the subjugation of a large number of Syrian civilians by ISIS. This has nothing to do with the Russian bombing of the rebels and civilians alike while they back Assad's Syrian Army.
Unlike the Western targeted precision strikes!
HS, How does withdrawing the RAF element help the situation. They are helping alleviate the subjugation of a large number of Syrian civilians by ISIS. This has nothing to do with the Russian bombing of the rebels and civilians alike while they back Assad's Syrian Army.
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To be fair to me..
Out of trim you tell me, I'm not in charge. I just observe.
It looks as thought the RAF's role over Syria has ended anyway. Or is rapidly drawing down from what was pretty low intensity anyway. My source? MODs own websites and the RAFs own on-going operations page. Today.
RAF - Current Operations
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...-against-daesh
Nearly all the operations seem to be going on against Daesh (formally ISIL) in northern Iraq. UK currently have an availability of aircraft but they don't appear to be used that much.
Not even listed on the current ops. What does that tell you?
It was another Cameron spin then, all the hullabaloo on the vote etc?
My guess? UK has now withdrawn from the Syrian civil war due to a lack of ISIL/DAESH targets? But the real war goes on elsewhere.
It looks as thought the RAF's role over Syria has ended anyway. Or is rapidly drawing down from what was pretty low intensity anyway. My source? MODs own websites and the RAFs own on-going operations page. Today.
RAF - Current Operations
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...-against-daesh
Nearly all the operations seem to be going on against Daesh (formally ISIL) in northern Iraq. UK currently have an availability of aircraft but they don't appear to be used that much.
Not even listed on the current ops. What does that tell you?
It was another Cameron spin then, all the hullabaloo on the vote etc?
My guess? UK has now withdrawn from the Syrian civil war due to a lack of ISIL/DAESH targets? But the real war goes on elsewhere.
Hangarshuffle,
I'm sorry, I sometimes find it hard to follow the thrust of your posts, especially when you just construct a string of six rhetorical questions. I also wasn't sure which article your link was supposed to be sending me to. But I can tell you this: Ops are not winding down, because the Government has not ordered that.
In response to your point about utilisation of UK air assets, they can only strike targets when they are identified and tasked as such following a rigorous process. You would be one of the first to shout 'foul' if the RAF were to hit something that was not a legitimate target.
I'm sorry, I sometimes find it hard to follow the thrust of your posts, especially when you just construct a string of six rhetorical questions. I also wasn't sure which article your link was supposed to be sending me to. But I can tell you this: Ops are not winding down, because the Government has not ordered that.
In response to your point about utilisation of UK air assets, they can only strike targets when they are identified and tasked as such following a rigorous process. You would be one of the first to shout 'foul' if the RAF were to hit something that was not a legitimate target.
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I wouldn't shout foul, ever. I never have or ever did once the start button was pressed. I just think this always was a pointless war for the RAF to be forced into, which they were always going to be on the wrong foot in being made to pursue. Assad with his invited Russian air force has this nailed down now. It was just another yet another total waste of UK money and effort.