Here it comes: Syria

[A_Van]

Looks like this scenario was taken out of the shelf when the time arrived:



This is from your campus:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/britain...-syria/5346912


By Louise Boyle


PUBLISHED: 14:16 EST, 29 January 2013 | UPDATED: 14:16 EST, 29 January 2013 copyright Daily Mail


Leaked emails have allegedly proved that the White House gave the green light to a chemical weapons attack in Syria that could be blamed on Assad’s regime and in turn, spur international military action in the devastated country.
.......

[[email protected]]

You clearly don't know how little credibility is given to anything in the Daily Mail - its worse than the Sun.

[West Coast]

In general, Tomahawks are easy targets for modern IADS

Van, can you provide documentation of Soviet era and now Russian IADS having had success against cruise missiles? Surely if as you put it, they were/are "easy targets" your client states must have taken them out in significant numbers.

I await your response.

[A_Van]

West Coast,


1. The answer for the 1st question is trivial and I am sure you know it: such data are not for public domain. But since my country has all kinds of modern weapons, no doubt that IADS components were tested against a broad range of targets including various types of cruise missiles.


2. About client states, as you put it, it should first be mentioned that the letter "I" is not applicable for them. And stand-alone complexes in hands of the guys who are hardly literal and had problems with discipline and motivation are nothing but a piece of metal. Look e.g., how your Saudi clients use F-15s: every now and then we hear that they hit wrong targets and kill hundreds of civilians.
Also, are you sure the Syrians had anything working at that airfield even to shoot at TALMs?

[West Coast]

It's far from trivial, the worth of the TLAM hinges on the veracity of your claim.

Any evidence on your part to support your claim would be helpful.

Also, are you sure the Syrians had anything working at that airfield even to shoot at TALMs?

Are you sure they didn't? At one time Syria had a robust IAD network. As there were numbers of Russan personnel there, wouldn't standard force protections dictate their presence? Your lot made quite a bit of noise about deploying the latest and greatest IADS after the Turks shot down your aircraft, one would think you would be ready for what is (and was) the most predictable method the US would engage. Most important, there are not 59 smoking holes (other than the targets) where Russian/Syrian IADS engaged the TLAMS. As you put it "easy targets" should have your ministry (and the Syrian equivelant ) talking up the effectiveness of their weapons, that's not in evidence.

[Pontius Navigator]

A Van, reference your last, are there any Soviet client states that don't have shed loads of ADA?

At the first wiff of an attack they usually light up like a Brock's benefit target or no. So, working, yes, effective demonstrably not.

[Just This Once...]

Originally Posted by A_Van

Looks like this scenario was taken out of the shelf when the time arrived:

Leaked emails have allegedly proved that the White House....

Except none of it was true and the reason you have to use a web archive to find it is that those that published the article withdrew it when they realised they had been had. They also faced litigation from the company quoted in the article and libel action from the totally innocent individuals whose real names were inserted into a faked email.

Scraping the bottom of the barrel digging that one up Van.

[A_Van]

Let me repeat: in this discussion I do not care about Syrian air defense, integrated, disintegrated, whatever. The staff is poorly educated, not trained at all. Whether they had or not any air defense at that place, I am not surprised the result is the same. The same for aviation: Israel proved many times during the last 50 years that even having comparable weapons, they (arabs) lose totally. But if the US ships would attack the Russian base, where IADS is really deployed and operated by right people, the result would be different, but there is a great probability that millions would not wake up this morning. Good night.

[ORAC]

The way I see it, anyone who buys Russian gets crap kit, crap training, crap support, and their arses handed to them when they go to war with a loss rate of about 100:1.

But I won't shout too loud about it - because I'm happy for them to keep buying it.....

[West Coast]

Van

You seem to be changing your tune from easy target to client states are inept. Why is that?

[barnstormer1968]

I wonder if one of the posters here remembers a recent conversation on ARRSE where they pointed out that with the modern Russian AD system in Syria that (in a hypothetical scenario) no single cruise missile could get to a target from a sub or surface vessel and that any vessel foolish enough to try would be wiped out easily. Ranges of well over 150km were easily covered by the AD system and it would shoot down fighters, stealth aircraft or missiles.
Just as well this latest raid was real and not hypothetical.............the pretend TLAMs' wouldnt have stood a chance!

[racedo]

Message sent was not for Assad or Syria, message was for North Korea.

[SASless]

Now I admit Things Metric easily defeat me....but I can grasp the simple fact "150km" is no where near the 1000 Mile range of a Cruise Missile.

[tartare]

Some interesting claims circulating on Twitter - that the whole thing was as stage managed as an episode of The Apprentice.
Russia was given two hours warning - then warned Assad.
Assets moved out of the way - TLAMs launched, Trump appears strong, Vladimir Vladimirovich points out how dangerous the US is, which is why he is needed at the helm, nothing important gets blown up.
Probably just a conspiracy theory...

[West Coast]

Yah, but there's suckers everywhere that believe anything they hear that even slightly aligns with their beliefs.

[walter kennedy]

Posted by ORAC:
<<There is a fine line between attempting to have Assad be removed and destroying the armed forces and the organs of state. Look what happened when they disbanded the armed forces and started debaathification in Iraq.>>
Here, here - very much what UN boss in Iraq, Sergio di Mello said (shortly before US security let the truck bomb through that killed him).
What alternatives for stability are there other than Assad?
In the destruction of so many middle east states, cui bono?
Whatever the truth about the chemical weapons use, the response was premature and reckless - good job they have Trump as the figurehead to blame if it doesn't work out too well.

[CONSO]

Originally Posted by A_Van

Just This Once...,


1. First, this airbase is pretty far away from the one where the Russian forces are based (some 150 km). Neither Patriot, nor similar Russian systems were designed to shoot down CMs at such ranges.


2. The idea of giving the Syrians more air defense sounds questionable to me: those stupid would anyway f.. them out.


3. The whole strike seems to be nothing but a "demo". The airstrip is OK, the planes in the field are OK. Some 6 old MiGs are gone with their shelters, fuel facilities, hangar with training classes and other secondary stuff. Quite nothing for 59 Tomahawks sent.


4. Disregarding the above consideration about the "demo", there are some rumours that less than 50% of CMs reached that airbase. I doubt such a poor performance, however 2 dead in the neighbouring village raises a point about accuracy. Anyway, it would be interesting to get real numbers. At least the holes on the planet are countable.

Latest word is that it took about a half hour to launch 60- one dropped into ocean- the rest either loitered or took long way routes such that come zero time fort impact was timed so that all 59 hit target area within about 2 minutes. The pUrpose was very limited- the fireworks display must have been impressive and more effective than a power point demo on precision targeting and real time changes possible. - sort of like hitting a donkey ( jack - assad ) on the head with a two by four to get his attention.

Or the don cordelone equivalent of finding a horses head in his bed in the morning. Nothing personal- just business.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by A_Van

But if the US ships would attack the Russian base, where IADS is really deployed and operated by right people, the result would be different, but there is a great probability that millions would not wake up this morning. Good night.

Yeah, that's a serious concern, so I think that a bit of deconfliction was done ahead of time. Both heads of state would see it as being in their interest.

And once we understand that, Mr Assad is likely beginning to feel a little less happy about his long term relationship with his long term ally.

[ImageGear]

Message sent was not for Assad or Syria, message was for North Korea.

In recent years, the US has progressively divested its interests in the world balance of political power. However since the "mice" have been running around stealing or trying to steal, bits of tasty cheese, the US has decided that the line in the sand must be redrawn.

I'm sure that the list of "mice" would include: Russia, North Korea, Iran, Turkey, China and any number of minor rogue states. In addition, the "cats" will take some comfort in the knowledge that they once again have a "Top Cat", and that the pendulum of world political order is now more likely to swing the other way.

There is no doubt that the world as we know it does not fair well when political oversight becomes fragmented.

Imagegear

[mickjoebill]

The drone footage released by Russian TV shows some of the hangars where we can see daylight from end to end.
A still photo shows good detail of the pair of hangar doors blown off their rails and laying, flat in front of the hangar, indicating they were closed at time of impact. Would all of the hangars have had heavy blast proof doors, at both ends? The drone footage shows debris outside entrances to hangars, but no blast doors laying flat on the ground.

Can we assume hangars were hit at one end, obliterating blast doors at one end and blowing blast doors at the other end off their rails?

Australian Media report that the drone footage indicates the hangars are "intact" and use this to question the veracity of the US assessment!

Mickjoebill