Here it comes: Syria

[Lonewolf_50]

Dare I suggest, in light of the thread title, that "It" isn't coming?

Maybe not.

UNSC Resolution 2118 seems to call for Blue Helmets to be involved. Who will offer blue helmeted soldiers, and in what forms, remains to be seen.

Watch this space.
Full text of the resolution is here, you have to go about 1/3 down the page to get past the PR fluff and read the Resolution fluff ...

Paragraphs 10, 16, and 21 note that the Security Council ...

“10. Encourages Member States to provide support, including personnel, technical expertise, information, equipment, and financial and other resources and assistance, in coordination with the Director-General of the OPCW and the Secretary-General, to enable the OPCW and the United Nations to implement the elimination of the Syrian Arab Republic’s chemical weapons programme, and decides to authorize Member States to acquire, control, transport, transfer and destroy chemical weapons identified by the Director-General of the OPCW, consistent with the objective of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to ensure the elimination of the Syrian Arab Republic’s chemical weapons programme in the soonest and safest manner;

“16. Endorses fully the Geneva Communiqué of 30 June 2012 (Annex II),
which sets out a number of key steps beginning with the establishment of a
transitional governing body exercising full executive powers, which could
include members of the present Government and the opposition and other groups and shall be formed on the basis of mutual consent;

“21. Decides, in the event of non-compliance with this resolution, including unauthorized transfer of chemical weapons, or any use of chemical weapons by anyone in the Syrian Arab Republic, to impose measures under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter;

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

So, all sides try to send representatives to the body but, unsurprisingly, there is no mutual consent.
This Resolution is another total waste of everybody's time.

Can we please include, in the Oxford PPE course and its US equivalent (which seem to be pre-requisites for senior Government positions these days), the fact that if national leaders get caught lying their asses off, nobody is going to believe your Government for the next generation? And that this might seriously screw up your ability to achieve anything at all internationally for 30 years+.
If TB is going to have "IRAQ" on his tombstone, may I suggest the number of deaths caused is not carved, but a nuclear-powered electronic totaliser with at least 8 digits, because the knock-on consequences are going to keep adding up a long time after the last trooper pulled out of Basra.


..

[Archimedes]

You might not believe it, but ISTR that the Oxford PPE course includes that...

I'm going on 2nd hand information there (I did history), but I am 99% certain that this was the sort of thing that legions of eager PPE students, most of them without the first thought of going into politics, were earnestly lectured about in both the politics and philosophy parts of the degree.

Of course, since one doesn't (didn't) actually have to turn up to any of the lectures at Oxford for the non-science subjects, and can (could) get away with it via listening in tutorials and reading fairly widely, you can drop the lectures for the political networking which'll get you onto the parliamentary candidates list ...

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I believe it, Archimedes.
I hardly think the Oxford dons would omit Machiavelli's "Wars begin when you will, but do not end when you please".

So, what was TB doing instead of attending lectures??

[Archimedes]

By the looks of it, indulging in some perceptive self analysis.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

'bout the last time he did.

Me, reading Engineering, I went to lectures - rather a lot of them (35 hrs a week, inc.practicals). Learned lots of useful stuff too. Novel concept for a degree, apparently.

[Archimedes]

It'll never catch on...

Since I was there at the time of Norman Stone in his pomp and several other 'characters', I attended a fair number of lectures.

It was just that none of them was directly relevant to the modules I was doing (for those, I could read in great detail in the space of two days what the person who wrote the book was going to take five weeks to say, and their prose was often much more entertaining than their lecturing, since their witty conversation didn't translate to performing in front of an audience of thirty or forty people)...

Stone would've had more than one or two pithy comments to make about the wisdom of intervention in Syria or Iraq, but seems to have been overlooked by the press since he left for Turkey.

[Lonewolf_50]

It appears as though PM Medvedev of Russia has been reading my posts on PPRuNe.

Originally Posted by PM Medvedev

"I think that the ideas that are sometimes put forward -- let's exclude President Assad and then agree on everything -- are unrealistic as long as Assad is in power," Medvedev said.

"He's not mad. He must receive some kind of guarantees or, in any case, some kind of proposals on the development of political dialogue in Syria itself, on possible elections, on his personal fate."

As I've been saying since this civil war began and the "Arab Spring spreading to Syria" meme developed, B.Assad has seen the fate of Saddam and Mubarak, and isn't interested in being put into such positions.

Meanwhile, in some good news, Hezbollah seems to have a problem tracking a recent UPS shipment ... courtesy of the IAF.

Not sure if the offcial Israeli line is air tight, but it seems consistent with a few of their more recent exercises of air power in that area.

[500N]

Israel must love the fact that it can bomb away at these types of targets
and the opposition / enemy can't say or do a damn thing about it.

Must be perfect for them.

[Alber Ratman]

This lot helps..

SYRIAN "A-TEAM" - YouTube

[tartare]

Once again a well executed mission... much respect to the IAF.

[ORAC]

Reference the UN SC Resolution which stated clearly..... ....“21. Decides, in the event of non-compliance with this resolution, including unauthorized transfer of chemical weapons, or any use of chemical weapons by anyone in the Syrian Arab Republic, to impose measures under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter......

Use of chemical weapons continues in Syria

The Executive Council of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) on 23 November 2015 expressed "grave concern" that chemical weapons (CW) had once again been used in Syria after its fact-finding mission (FFM) confirmed "with the utmost confidence" that sulphur mustard had been deployed in an attack on the rebel-held town of Marea on 21 August.

OPCW Report

.....Hereby:
1. Expresses grave concern regarding the findings of the Fact-Finding Mission that chemical weapons have once again been used in the Syrian Arab Republic, and in this regard:

(a) underscores that, with respect to the incident in Marea, Syrian Arab Republic, on 21 August 2015, the report of the Fact-Finding Mission confirmed “with the utmost confidence that at least two people were exposed to sulfur mustard” and that it is “very likely that the effects of sulfur mustard resulted in the death of a baby” (S/1320/2015); and

(b) further underscores that, with respect to several incidents in the Idlib Governorate of the Syrian Arab Republic between 16 March 2015 and 20 May 2015, the report of the Fact-Finding Mission concluded that they “likely involved the use of one or more toxic chemicals—probably containing the element chlorine—as a weapon” with an “outcome of exposure [that] was fatal in six cases in Sarmin,” including those of three children in the same family (S/1319/2015)......

[glad rag]

Nice find Albert

[Lonewolf_50]

For those interested in what Chapter VII | United Nations actually says:

Article 39
The Security Council shall determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression and shall make recommendations, or decide what measures shall be taken in accordance with Articles 41 and 42, to maintain or restore international peace and security.


Article 40
In order to prevent an aggravation of the situation, the Security Council may, before making the recommendations or deciding upon the measures provided for in Article 39, call upon the parties concerned to comply with such provisional measures as it deems necessary or desirable. Such provisional measures shall be without prejudice to the rights, claims, or position of the parties concerned. The Security Council shall duly take account of failure to comply with such provisional measures.

Article 41
The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the Members of the United Nations to apply such measures. These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations.

Article 42
Should the Security Council consider that measures provided for in Article 41 would be inadequate or have proved to be inadequate, it may take such action by air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security. Such action may include demonstrations, blockade, and other operations by air, sea, or land forces of Members of the United Nations.

Since the UNSCR is of divided opinion among its veto holding members, BFA will be done.


It goes on to Article 51

Article 51
Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.

If the Syrian government makes the appeal that All Of These Foreigners are on their turf and are aiding people who are trying to overthrow their government, can they not appeal to their operating under Article 51 in their own right?

[ORAC]

The Aviationist: Watch Russian Tu-22M bomber perform high-altitude old-fashioned carpet bombing in Syria

[ORAC]

All text From SNAFU!: Russian SU-35s to do combat air patrols 24 hours a day over Khmeimim Syrian Air Force Base. Are they prepping for conventional combat?

via
BN 02/05 14:32 *RIA CITES RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY ON KHMEIMIM AIRBASE PATROL
*RUSSIA: SU-35 JETS TO BE ON 24/7 PATROL NEAR SYRIA AIRBASE: RIA
2016-02-05 14:31:42.371 GMT
--ALEXEI ANISHCHUK

Ok, what do we know for sure?

1. The peace talks broke down and Kerry is blaming the Russians for not halting their aerial offensive.

2. Saudi Arabia says that its ready to send troops to Syria in a US led coalition.

3. Russia says that they have indications that Turkey is preparing for a ground incursion into Syria.

4. Days ago Russia sent SU-35's to Syria to augment other fighters already in that country.

5. We just found out that Russian SU-35's will do combat air patrols 24 hours a day over the airbase they're harbored in.

Do the Russians believe that a Turkish incursion is imminent? Are they trying to "shape" the battlefield ahead of an air war? Or is this simply a bluff to get Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the US to back off?

I have no idea.

[AreOut]

sending their planes to Latakia airbase wasn't a bluff since they are obviously using them for months...I doubt this is bluff, the trend will likely continue

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by ORAC

All text From SNAFU!: Russian SU-35s to do combat air patrols 24 hours a day over Khmeimim Syrian Air Force Base. Are they prepping for conventional combat?

If the term "combat air patrols" being used doctrinally or journalistically?

CAP has a particular meaning. If they launch as a defensive cap to protect the airbase, that's one thing. If they launch armed air to ground for "on call CAS' that's another matter. If they are up near the border waiting for Turkish aircraft to cross into Syria ....


From American Joint Doctrine (Joint Pub 3-01.2 (I recall NATO doctrine on this as being very similar, but it's been a decade or so ... )

Combat Air Patrol. A CAP is an aircraft patrol provided over an objective area, over the force protected, over the critical area of a combat zone, or over an air defense area for the purpose of intercepting and destroying hostile aircraft before they reach their target or weapons release point. CAPs are used to provide temporary air superiority to protect friendly air or surface forces from air attack during the conduct of their operations. Although a CAP flight can patrol a general area or defend a localized area, it could also be positioned between the expected threat and the friendly forces to act as a fighter screen or barrier. CAP flights also contribute directly to DCA operations when they intercept and destroy enemy offensive aircraft before they can pose a threat to friendly forces.

In what sense is that term being used, I wonder?

[A_Van]

Definitely, it was a "journalistic b..it" meaning of CAP. How the 24/7 air patrolling could be arranged having just 4-6 aircraft for this purpose at the airbase? Nonsense.


In reality it seems there will be a couple of machines "standing" near the strip with somewhat 2-3 min readiness to take off.


The following article indirectly confirms that (sorry, it's in Russian):
?????????? ??-35 ????? ???????? ? ????? ?? ?????

[TEEEJ]

Interesting footage from Syria of the Su-35S. The first missile in the footage on the inner pylons is the R-77-1 which is an improved variant of the R-77.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-77

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpVEWipSx5k