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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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Old 28th Dec 2023, 16:36
  #1961 (permalink)  
 
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Well over a years notice..................... good to see people are thinking ahead............ all the way to the next Tory leadership contest
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Old 29th Dec 2023, 01:02
  #1962 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Well over a years notice..................... good to see people are thinking ahead............ all the way to the next Tory leadership contest
Sorry, I am from the other side of the pond, what in the fkuc has that to do with the topic of this thread?
You Brits have a talent for being obtuse, I'll give you that.
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Old 29th Dec 2023, 13:20
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Defence Secretary Grant Shapps - a man who removed Boris Johnson from a picture of them together after Johnson quit.................... he'd do or say literally ANYTHING anything to creep another notch up the greasy pole. He's positioning himself for the post Sunac world
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Old 29th Dec 2023, 14:48
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps - a man who removed Boris Johnson from a picture of them together after Johnson quit.................... he'd do or say literally ANYTHING anything to creep another notch up the greasy pole. He's positioning himself for the post Sunac world
Your political posts belong on JB, not here.
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Old 29th Dec 2023, 15:40
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Sorry I was asked about the post by people who are not resident in the UK nor up to speed with UK politics - making a statement about a possible deployment over a year ahead of time is clearly a political statement. And Shapps is a total politician.
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Old 29th Dec 2023, 16:03
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China has just appointed a new Defense Minister at Friday 6:40pm -- Navy Admiral Dong Jun, 62.

Quick thoughts on possible significance for China's strategic focus, personnel tradition, and military's anti-corruption reshuffling. /1…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...213175733.html
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Old 29th Dec 2023, 16:51
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Adm Jun's resume is pretty thin with very little operational experience. Its obvious Xi just wants a yes man mouth piece to be the PLA interlocutor with the world and who will do what they are told as he tightens his grip on the PLA. The good news for the West is opponents that have senior leadership chosen for political fealty over military competence don't do well when the shooting starts
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Old 30th Dec 2023, 09:17
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The Reuters definition of the role of the Defence Minister is very interesting - suggest it's a liaison job rather than an executive one

I'm sure President Xi and the Party have direct control at many levels
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Old 30th Dec 2023, 14:42
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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever
Adm Jun's resume is pretty thin with very little operational experience. Its obvious Xi just wants a yes man mouth piece to be the PLA interlocutor with the world and who will do what they are told as he tightens his grip on the PLA. The good news for the West is opponents that have senior leadership chosen for political fealty over military competence don't do well when the shooting starts
Don't the Chinese use 'the surname first' convention? That would be Admiral Dong. (Or, I am forgetting how that works?).
with very little operational experience.
At the flag officer level, isn't it all a bit political? (It is here in the US).
when the shooting starts
Hoping that isn't any time soon, and that the heads of state work diligently toward preventing that.
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Old 30th Dec 2023, 19:16
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My personal experience is that US General Officer and Flag Officer ranks are populated with officers with significant operational experience. For example this is an abridged version of the bio of current CNO, Adm Franchetti

She commanded USS Ross (DDG 71) and DESRON-21, embarked on USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74). She also served as commander of Pacific Partnership 2010, embarked on USNS Mercy (T-AH 19).Her flag assignments include commander, U.S. Naval Forces Korea; commander, Carrier Strike Group 9; commander, Carrier Strike Group 15; commander, U.S. 6th Fleet/commander, Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO/deputy commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe and U.S. Naval Forces Africa; These are just the pure operational assignments, she also had a wide range of consequential staff appointments.

I would suggest that this profile is typical of USN Flag Officers and General Officers of the other services. It should also be pointed out that the USN has approximately 3000 Naval Captains but only about 60 Rear Admirals Lower (1*) and Upper (2*) half. The selection process for a prospective Flag Officer is pretty rigorous. I would suggest that the Bio's for any of the PLA Flag and General Officers are considerably less impressive and will emphasize being a good party member not being a good operational commander.

Last edited by Big Pistons Forever; 30th Dec 2023 at 21:23.
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Old 30th Dec 2023, 19:53
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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever
My personal experience is that US General Officer and Flag Officer ranks are populated with officers with significant operational experience. For example this is an abridged version of the bio of current CNO, Adm Franchetti

She commanded USS Ross (DDG 71) and DESRON-21, embarked on USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74). She also served as commander of Pacific Partnership 2010, embarked on USNS Mercy (T-AH 19).Her flag assignments include commander, U.S. Naval Forces Korea; commander, Carrier Strike Group 9; commander, Carrier Strike Group 15; commander, U.S. 6th Fleet/commander, Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO/deputy commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe and U.S. Naval Forces Africa; These are just the pure operational assignments, she also had a wide range of consequential staff appointments.

I would suggest that this profile is typical of USN Flag Officers and General Officers of the other services. It should also be pointed out that the USN has approximately 3000 Naval Captains but only about 60 Rear Admirals Lower (1*) and Upper (2*) half. The selection process for a prospective Flag Officer is pretty rigorous. I would suggest that the Bio's for any of the PLA Flag and General Officers are considerably less impressive and will emphasize being a good party member not being a good operational commander.
Points taken.
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Old 31st Dec 2023, 15:18
  #1972 (permalink)  
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https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2...s-in-2024.html

China plans to keep ships near Senkakus 365 days in 2024

BEIJING: China plans to keep its ships near the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea for 365 days in 2024 as leader Xi Jinping has called for bolstering Beijing's sovereignty claim over the islets, sources familiar with the matter said Saturday.

During a rare visit by Xi on Nov. 29 to the command office for the East China Sea area of the China Coast Guard in Shanghai, the president pointed out the need for Beijing to "constantly strengthen" its efforts to safeguard the sovereignty of the islands, which China calls Diaoyu, the sources said.

Xi, who also heads the Central Military Commission, the highest national defense organization, commented on a bilateral row over the Senkaku Islands, saying, "We can only move forward, not backward. We will never let even 1 millimetre of our territory taken," the sources added.

The coast guard has subsequently drafted a plan to keep the presence of its ships near the islets every day next year and conduct inspections of Japanese fishing boats in the sea area, if necessary, to boost Beijing's sovereignty claim, they said.

On Dec. 14, the annual number of days Chinese vessels were spotted near the Senkakus by Japan surpassed a previous record of 336, reported in 2022.

Xi's instruction came despite Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reiterating "serious concerns" regarding the situation surrounding the Senkaku Islands at a summit meeting with the Chinese leader in San Francisco in mid-November.

Following the Xi visit, China Coast Guard Director General Yu Zhong held a meeting at the command office and decided to constantly dispatch its ships to waters near the Senkakus and allow more Chinese navy vessels to sail between Yonaguni and Iriomote islands in southern Japan's Okinawa Prefecture, the sources said.

Yonaguni is Japan's westernmost island with a population of around 1,600, located 111 kilometers from Taiwan, the self-ruled democratic island Beijing claims as its own.

The row over the Senkakus has been a long-term source of friction between the two Asian neighbors. Since Japan brought the islets under state control in September 2012, Chinese coast guard vessels have repeatedly intruded into Japanese waters near them.
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Old 31st Dec 2023, 16:02
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https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...en-2023-12-30/

Chinese military purge exposes weakness, could widen

BEIJING, Dec 30 (Reuters) - A sweeping purge of Chinese generals has weakened the People's Liberation Army, exposing deep-rooted corruption that could take more time to fix and slow Chinese leader Xi Jinping's military modernization drive amid geopolitical tensions, analysts say.

China's top lawmakers ousted nine senior military officers from the national legislative body on Friday, state media reported, a step that typically precedes further punishment for wayward cadres. Many of these were from the Rocket Force - a key arm of the PLA overseeing tactical and nuclear missiles…..
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 12:01
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In an SCS adjacent story, Sri Lanka not all that keen to support Chinese research in the Indian Ocean ...
Chinese Spy Ship Denied Port Entry in Blow to Xi (newsweek.com)
Sri Lanka has rejected a request from China to allow an oceanic research vessel to dock and operate within its maritime zones, officials said on Sunday, in a win for India and a blow to the geopolitical ambitions of Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

This decision to deny the Xiang Yang Hong 3's port access for an entire year followed a meeting last July between Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and Sri Lanka's President Ranil Wickremesinghe, in which Modi was said to have emphasized New Delhi's security concerns.

China's desire to conduct "deep water exploration" in the south Indian Ocean has been a point of contention, according to a report on Monday by the Indian daily Hindustan Times. Chinese state media accused Colombo of succumbing to a pressure campaign by New Delhi.
Of course, they could claim to be looking for a certain 777 as a cover story ...
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Old 4th Jan 2024, 08:20
  #1975 (permalink)  
 
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More likely "oceanic research" is a way to help the vast , often illegal , Chinese fishing operation
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Old 4th Jan 2024, 09:17
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Chinese 'research' ships have laser-mapped out the sea bed all around the southern islands of Japan.
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Old 4th Jan 2024, 12:46
  #1977 (permalink)  
 
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The USN have been funding deep sea research for donkey's years - way back in the early 50'sd they mapped the earth's magnetic field over the Atlantic mainly using Neptunes IIRC

The data was very useful when the geological fraternity started to develop Plate Tectonic theory (as was the standardised network of seismic stations paid for by the US to monitor nuclear testing)
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Old 4th Jan 2024, 12:54
  #1978 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Chinese 'research' ships have laser-mapped out the sea bed all around the southern islands of Japan.
With that technology, perhaps they can find MH370?
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Old 4th Jan 2024, 15:58
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Chinese state media has revealed the Fujian, the country’s latest aircraft carrier.

The Fujian, with a displacement estimated to be perhaps as high as 100,000 tonnes, is a domestically-engineered design.

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Old 4th Jan 2024, 17:04
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Chinese state media has revealed the Fujian, the country’s latest aircraft carrier.

The Fujian, with a displacement estimated to be perhaps as high as 100,000 tonnes, is a domestically-engineered design.
I wonder if they 'borrowed' the electromagnetic catapults from an American design, or if it is truly home grown.
Perhaps a bit of both.
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