The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
The mine I worked at was 100% going to china. Now the embargo drops, panic sets in as we 100% export to china through 3rd parties. Thing is being a new mine they had to spend billions to get it setup, for this you apply to international banks for development loans. As a company you have no history of assets to take a loan out against. So they look at what long term supply contracts you have, the buyers know this so they play hardball and you have to give them fairly substantial discounts on the spot price to get them sign up for the 10 years.
Now that they are buying the contracts null and void. We had indian and taiwanese buyers knocking down our door to buy the discounted former chinese supply. Cant speak for the other companies and industries but the embargo was great for the company I work for we, 15-20% extra profit over the estimates. Now the embargo is dropped the chinese buyers are back but we have no excess production to sell. We are selling to india, Taiwan and Japanese buyers with any excess above the contracted supply put onto the global market and thats generally ending up in china but its small percentage of our production. Work on 10%
Not all industries are the same, but minerals and a primary are fungiable, its not that hard to find new buyers. Australia accounts for 61% of china's iron ore imports. War happens, immediately 61% of the iron ore used to make ships, tanks, guns is gone. 40% of their thermal coal is gone, 70% metalogical coal is gone. Thats not including the probable naval blockade
OH and just an edit for much of an effect a war with china in the indo is going to effect everyone. BIggest, by dollar, exporter of coal in the world is Australia. The biggest exporter of coal, by tonnage, is indonesia. Both next door and both in the firing line of any indopacific war
Last edited by rattman; 6th Jan 2024 at 19:56.
Hopefully exporters learned a valuable lesson about not putting all your eggs in one basket, although greed and western "short-termism" will probably trump common sense!
Last edited by Bug; 6th Jan 2024 at 20:26.
Australian lobster (median price) was around $250/kg pre trade-war and dropped to around $100/kg afterwards.
While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.
While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.
Australian lobster (median price) was around $250/kg pre trade-war and dropped to around $100/kg afterwards.
While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.
While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.
Australian lobster (median price) was around $250/kg pre trade-war and dropped to around $100/kg afterwards.
While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.
While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.
Also wine got hit pretty badly, lots of good wine was suddenly available in AUS at bottom dollar.
rattman
Quite agree about the relative importance, with irion ore exports also worth over $100 Bn a year.
What I was attempting to highlight was the 'incentives' the Chinese market privudes for a whole range of exporters.
As i see it, high reward, high risk, and not necessarily in Australia's best long-term interest..
Quite agree about the relative importance, with irion ore exports also worth over $100 Bn a year.
What I was attempting to highlight was the 'incentives' the Chinese market privudes for a whole range of exporters.
As i see it, high reward, high risk, and not necessarily in Australia's best long-term interest..
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Always assumed it was, You aren't going to keep water in rockets that are susceptable to corrosion. Just think its a translation error, "water filling" (water filling came from injecting meat with water to increase its weght) is a chinese slang for corruption. Western equiv would be padding the budget
Latest update on Taiwan's general election. Standby for some more harassing moves from the mainland.
Taiwan ruling party’s Lai Ching-te wins presidential election
Click the link for the full article.
Taiwan ruling party’s Lai Ching-te wins presidential election
Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate for Taiwan’s ruling party, has won an election that China had framed as a choice between war and peace.
The candidate for Taiwan’s main opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), Hou Yu-ih, conceded defeat in the election.
Lai’s Democratic Progressive party, which champions Taiwan’s separate identity and rejects China’s territorial claims, was seeking a third term, unprecedented under Taiwan’s current electoral system.
Lai was facing two opponents for the presidency – the KMT’s Hou and former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je of the small Taiwan People’s party, only founded in 2019.
Speaking to reporters in the southern city of Tainan before voting, Lai encouraged people to cast their ballots.
“Every vote is valued, as this is Taiwan’s hard-earned democracy,” he said in brief remarks.
In the run-up to the election, China repeatedly denounced Lai as a dangerous separatist and rebuffed his repeated calls for talks. Lai says he is committed to preserving peace across the Taiwan strait and boosting the island’s defences.
Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Saturday morning it had again spotted Chinese balloons crossing the sensitive strait, one of which flew over Taiwan itself. The ministry has denounced the spate of balloons reported over the strait in the past month as psychological warfare and a threat to aviation safety.
The candidate for Taiwan’s main opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), Hou Yu-ih, conceded defeat in the election.
Lai’s Democratic Progressive party, which champions Taiwan’s separate identity and rejects China’s territorial claims, was seeking a third term, unprecedented under Taiwan’s current electoral system.
Lai was facing two opponents for the presidency – the KMT’s Hou and former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je of the small Taiwan People’s party, only founded in 2019.
Speaking to reporters in the southern city of Tainan before voting, Lai encouraged people to cast their ballots.
“Every vote is valued, as this is Taiwan’s hard-earned democracy,” he said in brief remarks.
In the run-up to the election, China repeatedly denounced Lai as a dangerous separatist and rebuffed his repeated calls for talks. Lai says he is committed to preserving peace across the Taiwan strait and boosting the island’s defences.
Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Saturday morning it had again spotted Chinese balloons crossing the sensitive strait, one of which flew over Taiwan itself. The ministry has denounced the spate of balloons reported over the strait in the past month as psychological warfare and a threat to aviation safety.
Generally known as William Lai I believe
Big Brother will be very unhappy for sure................
Big Brother will be very unhappy for sure................
And the arms race continues.
China unveils hypersonic missile based on US ‘Dream Shell’ concept (interestingengineering.com)
MIldly interesting article about hypersonic munitions that China are working on
China unveils hypersonic missile based on US ‘Dream Shell’ concept (interestingengineering.com)
MIldly interesting article about hypersonic munitions that China are working on
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://thehill.com/policy/internati...t-likely-2024/
Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say
A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.
That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.
Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….
Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say
A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.
That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.
Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….
https://thehill.com/policy/internati...t-likely-2024/
Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say
A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.
That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.
Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….
Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say
A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.
That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.
Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….
Can't see it - not when Xi is busy purging the PLA and its top generals. He's just got the economy more or less back on track after COVID and even then there are mutterings amongst the people. The only thing that would kick something off this year would be Taiwanese declaration of Independence
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Can't see it - not when Xi is busy purging the PLA and its top generals. He's just got the economy more or less back on track after COVID and even then there are mutterings amongst the people. The only thing that would kick something off this year would be Taiwanese declaration of Independence
https://thehill.com/policy/internati...t-likely-2024/
Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say
A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.
That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.
Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….
Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say
A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.
That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.
Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….
The only other option is a full on US China trade war with the US cutting off enough trade to really hurt China including arm twisting the EU to fall in line, something else I just don't happening because of the economic pain that that will inflict on the EU and the US.