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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 6th Jan 2024, 19:44
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
But it cost you.................. "China imposed a A$24bn ($16bn) hit on Australia, representing 5.5% of its total annual exports."

and you're still exporting to them
It didn't overall. Now going to lead into this by saying I work for a mining company in IT so dont actually know mining but have lunch with actual miners who know the industry

The mine I worked at was 100% going to china. Now the embargo drops, panic sets in as we 100% export to china through 3rd parties. Thing is being a new mine they had to spend billions to get it setup, for this you apply to international banks for development loans. As a company you have no history of assets to take a loan out against. So they look at what long term supply contracts you have, the buyers know this so they play hardball and you have to give them fairly substantial discounts on the spot price to get them sign up for the 10 years.

Now that they are buying the contracts null and void. We had indian and taiwanese buyers knocking down our door to buy the discounted former chinese supply. Cant speak for the other companies and industries but the embargo was great for the company I work for we, 15-20% extra profit over the estimates. Now the embargo is dropped the chinese buyers are back but we have no excess production to sell. We are selling to india, Taiwan and Japanese buyers with any excess above the contracted supply put onto the global market and thats generally ending up in china but its small percentage of our production. Work on 10%

Not all industries are the same, but minerals and a primary are fungiable, its not that hard to find new buyers. Australia accounts for 61% of china's iron ore imports. War happens, immediately 61% of the iron ore used to make ships, tanks, guns is gone. 40% of their thermal coal is gone, 70% metalogical coal is gone. Thats not including the probable naval blockade

OH and just an edit for much of an effect a war with china in the indo is going to effect everyone. BIggest, by dollar, exporter of coal in the world is Australia. The biggest exporter of coal, by tonnage, is indonesia. Both next door and both in the firing line of any indopacific war

Last edited by rattman; 6th Jan 2024 at 19:56.
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Old 6th Jan 2024, 20:10
  #2002 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
But it cost you.................. "China imposed a A$24bn ($16bn) hit on Australia, representing 5.5% of its total annual exports."

and you're still exporting to them
And Australian exporters found other markets for the goods, as per rattman post above.
Hopefully exporters learned a valuable lesson about not putting all your eggs in one basket, although greed and western "short-termism" will probably trump common sense!

Last edited by Bug; 6th Jan 2024 at 20:26.
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Old 7th Jan 2024, 08:59
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Australian lobster (median price) was around $250/kg pre trade-war and dropped to around $100/kg afterwards.

While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.
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Old 7th Jan 2024, 09:21
  #2004 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by layman
Australian lobster (median price) was around $250/kg pre trade-war and dropped to around $100/kg afterwards.

While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.
Some might argue that the $250/kg was a fools paradise. I'm not saying that if were in their shoes I wouldn't have taken it, but I would hope that now I would diversify my export destinations.
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Old 7th Jan 2024, 09:55
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Originally Posted by layman
Australian lobster (median price) was around $250/kg pre trade-war and dropped to around $100/kg afterwards.

While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.
We did 750 million in lobster exports. we did 110 billion in coal. Lobster isn't even a blip on the graph. Covid had a much bigger effect than the a embargo.

Also wine got hit pretty badly, lots of good wine was suddenly available in AUS at bottom dollar.
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Old 7th Jan 2024, 10:09
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rattman

Quite agree about the relative importance, with irion ore exports also worth over $100 Bn a year.

What I was attempting to highlight was the 'incentives' the Chinese market privudes for a whole range of exporters.

As i see it, high reward, high risk, and not necessarily in Australia's best long-term interest..

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Old 7th Jan 2024, 10:15
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The Lobsters don't come back weaponised...🤔 well...not yet.
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 23:49
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Xi cannot afford to attempt to invade Taiwan and fail!
It would presumably lead to his downfall.
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Old 9th Jan 2024, 07:44
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Originally Posted by Buster Hyman
The Lobsters don't come back weaponised...🤔 well...not yet.
They got sidetracked looking for Jayne Mansfield’s bottom.
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Old 9th Jan 2024, 08:16
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Some reports now suggesting water in the rockets fake news.
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Old 9th Jan 2024, 10:10
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Originally Posted by Gnadenburg
Some reports now suggesting water in the rockets fake news.
Always assumed it was, You aren't going to keep water in rockets that are susceptable to corrosion. Just think its a translation error, "water filling" (water filling came from injecting meat with water to increase its weght) is a chinese slang for corruption. Western equiv would be padding the budget
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Old 13th Jan 2024, 11:47
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Latest update on Taiwan's general election. Standby for some more harassing moves from the mainland.
Taiwan ruling party’s Lai Ching-te wins presidential election

Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate for Taiwan’s ruling party, has won an election that China had framed as a choice between war and peace.

The candidate for Taiwan’s main opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), Hou Yu-ih, conceded defeat in the election.

Lai’s Democratic Progressive party, which champions Taiwan’s separate identity and rejects China’s territorial claims, was seeking a third term, unprecedented under Taiwan’s current electoral system.

Lai was facing two opponents for the presidency – the KMT’s Hou and former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je of the small Taiwan People’s party, only founded in 2019.

Speaking to reporters in the southern city of Tainan before voting, Lai encouraged people to cast their ballots.

“Every vote is valued, as this is Taiwan’s hard-earned democracy,” he said in brief remarks.

In the run-up to the election, China repeatedly denounced Lai as a dangerous separatist and rebuffed his repeated calls for talks. Lai says he is committed to preserving peace across the Taiwan strait and boosting the island’s defences.

Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Saturday morning it had again spotted Chinese balloons crossing the sensitive strait, one of which flew over Taiwan itself. The ministry has denounced the spate of balloons reported over the strait in the past month as psychological warfare and a threat to aviation safety.
Click the link for the full article.
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Old 13th Jan 2024, 13:12
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Generally known as William Lai I believe

Big Brother will be very unhappy for sure................
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Old 14th Jan 2024, 16:04
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Taiwan election: China says US 'gravely wrong' to congratulate new leader - BBC News
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Old 23rd Jan 2024, 12:23
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And the arms race continues.
China unveils hypersonic missile based on US ‘Dream Shell’ concept (interestingengineering.com)
MIldly interesting article about hypersonic munitions that China are working on
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Old 24th Jan 2024, 12:14
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https://thehill.com/policy/internati...t-likely-2024/

Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say

A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.

That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.

Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….
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Old 24th Jan 2024, 12:19
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Originally Posted by ORAC
https://thehill.com/policy/internati...t-likely-2024/

Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say

A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.

That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.

Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….
Make or break for America. How does it respond? With force and end up in a costly war. With restraint and look weak. Dangerous times ahead. Of course if Trump gets in who knows?
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Old 24th Jan 2024, 14:34
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Can't see it - not when Xi is busy purging the PLA and its top generals. He's just got the economy more or less back on track after COVID and even then there are mutterings amongst the people. The only thing that would kick something off this year would be Taiwanese declaration of Independence
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Old 24th Jan 2024, 17:31
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Can't see it - not when Xi is busy purging the PLA and its top generals. He's just got the economy more or less back on track after COVID and even then there are mutterings amongst the people. The only thing that would kick something off this year would be Taiwanese declaration of Independence
That's exactly the reason that might trigger it. Politicians prefer to stir **** to keep populace's attention off of some bigger ****.
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Old 24th Jan 2024, 20:49
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Originally Posted by ORAC
https://thehill.com/policy/internati...t-likely-2024/

Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say

A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.

That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.

Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….
This is a nightmare scenario for the US and Taiwan. Taiwan can only survive in its present form with unrestricted routes for the import and export of goods. An illegal blockade would eventually bring Taiwan to its knees and force a de facto take over by China. I just don't see the US willing to go kinetic on PLA armed platforms blockading Taiwan. Without that as a realistic threat the US will have conceded the straits and then it is only a matter of time before Taiwan gets strangled.

The only other option is a full on US China trade war with the US cutting off enough trade to really hurt China including arm twisting the EU to fall in line, something else I just don't happening because of the economic pain that that will inflict on the EU and the US.
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