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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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Old 28th Nov 2023, 18:36
  #1941 (permalink)  
 
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has that fire been confirmed?
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Old 28th Nov 2023, 19:04
  #1942 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Bigger, stealthy, integrated mast and a new multipurpose VLS system.
Do you also say PIN number?
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Thanks for the post, nice pictures, interesting looking ship.
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Old 28th Nov 2023, 21:19
  #1943 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
has that fire been confirmed?
Confirmed to be fake. It was pre acceptance test, apparently happens to most new ships in china. You can find the little pinks talking about it and how they are purposely going to troll the west with it. A couple of hours before, they knew it was going to happen and even got notification of when and where it was going to happen so they could be there to film it
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Old 28th Nov 2023, 22:31
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An addendum to the planned German/Spanish/French deployment to the Pacific next year…..

Italian air force's chief of staff is on record saying a large number of Italian jets ("almost 25 jets" were the words at Mitchell institute) are going to Australia next year.

​​​​​​​CAVOUR aircraft carrier plus Typhoons/F-35s. One mixed group of jets is aiming to fly one leg non-stop.
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Old 5th Dec 2023, 13:01
  #1945 (permalink)  
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#China Grabs Neighbor's Land While Negotiating Border Deal with #Bhutan

New satellite imagery has revealed Chinese expansion into territory previously controlled by Bhutan even as China continues to negotiate a border agreement with its neighbor to the south.

China's strategy of encouraging settlement in disputed areas appears to supersede the ongoing boundary talks, suggesting an attempt to alter realities on the ground in its favor, researchers say.

It is a move that could have long-lasting implications for the small kingdom of less than 1 million people, sandwiched between China and India, with Bhutan's leaders finding it difficult to address China's alleged encroachment on villages that are already sparsely populated by their own Bhutanese people.

Beijing's land grab in the north of the Himalayan country was taking place in the form of an "unsanctioned program of settlement construction across the contested border with Bhutan," open-source analysts John Pollock and Damien Symon wrote in The World Today, a magazine published by the Chatham House think tank in London.

Their December 1 included satellite imagery from September that showed new outposts in Bhutan's remote Jakarlung Valley, part of the Beyul Khenpajong region.

Incumbent Prime Minister Lotay Tshering of Bhutan continued negotiations with China during his time in office. Tshering's decision suggests the kingdom has little choice but to strike a deal with its powerful neighbor in order to stop the encroachment.

The Chinese government also is pushing Bhutan to establish direct diplomatic relations, adding to the complexity of the geopolitical situation. To do so would require a significant shift in Bhutan's longstanding policy of not maintaining formal diplomatic ties with any permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

The kingdom, for instance, has traditionally allowed India to act as its mediator with the United States in the absence of relations between Thimphu and Washington.

Tshering hinted in a recent interview with an Indian newspaper that negotiations with Beijing to settle their disputed border could end in an exchange of territory. Observers believed the most likely concessions to be Jakarlung and the neighboring Menchuma Valley that China has already seized.

In Menchuma, east of Jakarlung, Chinese troops were said to be present in areas previously under Bhutan's control, with local Bhutanese denied access. "Troops belonging to China's People's Liberation Army are also believed to be stationed in or near the settlements in both areas," Pollock and Symon said.

Robert Barnett, a Tibet expert at SOAS, University of London, who was quoted in their report, noted "two major waves" of Chinese settlement construction in Jakarlung. "We know that the Chinese authorities are energetically recruiting Tibetans to move to these new locations and putting a lot of money into major construction efforts there," he told The World Today.

These activities are continuing against the backdrop of Bhutan's fourth fully democratic elections in 15 years. The kingdom began voting last week in national elections contested by two political parties.

Tshering, in his October interview with Indian daily The Hindu, said it was only a matter of time before Thimphu and Beijing established relations, but left room for a non-traditional arrangement. "Theoretically, how can Bhutan not have any bilateral relations with China? The question is when and in what manner," he said.

Additionally, India's role as Bhutan's security guarantor, established through treaties in 1949 and updated in 2007, adds another layer to the region's political dynamic. New Delhi was keeping a close watch on developments between Beijing and Thimphu. Any land swap deal would directly impact India's own borders with China.

Bhutan has indicated that Thimphu is informing New Delhi about the progress of talks with Beijing, Newsweek previously reported.

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Old 6th Dec 2023, 09:12
  #1946 (permalink)  
 
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Bhutan isn't dealing directly with China - so who is fronting their efforts? Presumably India

That's not a great place to be in a negotiation. The Chinese will, as they indicate, probably agree to a land swap or something similar once they deal directly with Bhutan - they just want to keep the Indians out of it
https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/c...-border-talks/
Singapore think tank view which seems pretty unbiased.

"China and Bhutan share about 477 kilometres of border. China claims around 764 square kilometres of land in Bhutan. The first round of boundary talks between Bhutan and China took place in 1984. In 1997, Bhutan’s foreign minister informed the Bhutanese National Assembly that during the 11th round of border talks with the Chinese delegation, the Bhutanese delegates put forward their country’s claims to Doklam, Sinchulung, Dramana and Shakhatoe in the western sector and stressed their importance for the people of Ha valley. They also informed the Chinese delegates that Tibetan herdsmen had been intruding into Majathang and Jakarlung in the central sector. At that time, China pointed to a package proposal made during the seventh round of talks in 1990 where they “had offered to give Bhutan the Pasamlung and Jakarlung valley, with an area of 495 square kilometres, in the central sector of the boundary if Bhutan agreed to concede in the western sector”.

In 2001, China came close to sealing the deal, but it failed. It is believed that India’s concerns made Bhutan refuse any compromise with China. In 2010, Bhutan and China agreed to hold a joint field survey of the disputed regions. The survey was completed in 2015. In 2017, despite ongoing talks, China started road construction near Doklam, leading to a military stand-off between the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army for 73 days. During that time, Bhutan accused China of unilaterally attempting to change the status quo in the Doklam region."

"Although Bhutan is engaged in boundary talks with China, it is hard to envisage that Thimphu will agree on anything that concerns New Delhi."





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Old 6th Dec 2023, 12:01
  #1947 (permalink)  
 
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Asturias, that's an interesting issue, thanks for bringing that up. Look at the time horizons on the negotiations. Walking us back to the 80's as they began to try and make a deal that both parties could live with.

In another look back toward the 1980's, we see that Harry Truman was right: there isn't a lot of news, but there is a lot of history that we don't know.
As that applies to the South China sea.
Navy to Arm Submarines With Anti-Ship Missiles to Counter China
The U.S. Navy plans to begin arming submarines next year with ship-targeting versions of the widely used Tomahawk missile, part of Washington’s push to ramp up military capabilities to challenge Chinese maritime forces, particularly around Taiwan.
When Tomahawk was being introduced (back in the 80's when it began to come out of test and development) it was a SSM with range substantially longer than Harpoon. (200+ nm versus Harpoon's 80+) It was an Anti Ship Missile. The land attack variant had more work to do since the terrain following features required some serious mapping data ... so we are right back where we began with Tomahawk, it seems.
RGM/UGM-109B Tomahawk Anti-Ship Missile (TASM) – Anti-ship variant with active radar homing; withdrawn from service in 1994 and converted to Block IV version.
I hope somebody kept the blueprints. Heh, or maybe just released a new revision ...
Tomahawk Block V was introduced in 2021 with improvements to navigation and in-flight targeting. Block Va, the Maritime Strike Tomahawk (MST) which allows the missile to engage a moving target at sea... Block IV Tomahawks will be converted to Block V standard...
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Old 6th Dec 2023, 14:52
  #1948 (permalink)  
 
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It's a minor interest of mine - such a fascinating mixture of history, geography and politics.

The Himalayan borders of the Sub Continent and China & Tibet are a VERY long running issue

The "forward" policy espoused at times by the bigger powers - Russia, China, UK, Persia/Iran etc had people claiming borders miles (and more important weeks or years ) ahead of any administration since the early 19th Century. It wasn't helped by the lack of maps - never mind accurate maps. And these places are really really remote - remember the Chinese built and operated their road across the Aksai Chin for several years before the Indians found out - and that was via an magazine article in a Chinese magazine.

The smaller players - Sikh's, Nepalese, Tibet etc - have always been involved in the claim game as well of course and are not beyond meddling either.

One thing for sure - it's strategically worthless to everyone. If Afghanistan was difficult just look at the issues in supplying and operating in the high country.
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Old 9th Dec 2023, 10:28
  #1949 (permalink)  
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China Coast Guard blasted water cannon toward Philippine vessels trying to do a Christmas resupply mission near Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal this morning (Dec. 9).

Water cannons were used at least 8 times, the most aggressive Chinese actions yet.
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Old 11th Dec 2023, 17:03
  #1950 (permalink)  
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China 'not fearful' of war with Japan over Senkakus, senior military officer says

A senior Chinese military officer said in a recent interview with Kyodo News that Beijing did not want a war over the Tokyo-controlled Senkaku Islands claimed by China in the East China Sea, but it was also "not fearful" of armed conflict either.

Lt. Gen. He Lei, a former vice president of the People's Liberation Army Academy of Military Sciences, also indicated the possibility that China would target the Senkakus, which it calls Diaoyu, as well if it attempted to capture Taiwan, a self-ruled democratic island, through the use of force.

The rare reference by a senior Chinese military officer to a possible war over the Senkaku Islands suggests Beijing's determination to gain control of the territory that Japan brought under state control in 2012.

The academy makes policy proposals to the PLA. He criticized Tokyo for purchasing the islands from Japanese private hands, stressing that Beijing would "firmly protect its national territory, sovereignty and maritime interests" if the Japanese side continues its "provocations."

Tokyo should not underestimate the Chinese military's "strong will, resolve and power" to safeguard national sovereignty, safety and territorial integrity, he warned…..

Beijing claims the Senkakus are part of its Taiwan province. Asked whether China could launch an offensive to simultaneously target the seizure of Taiwan and the islets, He said such a scenario was in line with the mainland's "principle."…..

China frequently sends its vessels into Japanese waters around the uninhabited islets.

On the weekend, the two countries accused each other of maritime incursions after a confrontation between their coast guards in waters around the disputed islands.

China's Coast Guard said on Sunday that a Japanese fishing boat and several patrol vessels intruded the previous day into waters around the Senkakus. China's Coast Guard said in a statement it had taken necessary measures in accordance with the law to warn away the Japanese vessels.

Japan's Coast Guard said on Saturday that two Chinese maritime patrol boats left Japan's territorial waters around the islands after receiving warnings. It said its patrol vessels were protecting a Japanese fishing boat that had been approached by the Chinese ships.

Similar incidents occurred in November and October.….

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Old 12th Dec 2023, 00:57
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https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...c4OfgEjjrl_Ocg

A defection and a ton of money.
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Old 12th Dec 2023, 11:32
  #1952 (permalink)  
 
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Taiwanese pilot planned to defect with a CH47 to China

Taiwanese pilot, allegedly planning to defect to the People's Republic of China (PRC), was reportedly offered $15 million USD to deliver a CH-47 Chinook helicopter to the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). As part of the defection scheme, the individual was supposedly set to land the Chinook on a PLAN vessel in the Taiwan Strait. Along with the money offered, the pilot was also apparently assured by Chinese officials that his family would be given safe passage out of Taiwan should a potential conflict between the country and China erupt.

The pilot in question has been named as Lt. Col. Hsieh of the Republic of China Army (ROCA) as part of an indictment released by Taiwan's High Court Prosecutors Office today. Hsieh was arrested back in August following a tip-off, a Taiwan court heard today, which foiled the defection scheme. According to reports, Hsieh — as well as a wider spy ring within the Taiwanese military connected to his defection — has been on the radar of Taiwanese law enforcement since the spring. Prior to today's revelations, lawmakers previously indicted a group of active and retired Taiwanese officers on November 27 on the grounds of spying for Beijing.

As per reporting by the South China Morning Post, Hsieh was originally approached in June by alleged Chinese intelligence officials via a retired ROCA officer. As part of his defection scheme, Hsieh was set to fly a CH-47SD Chinook helicopter — of which the ROCA currently has roughly eight of — onto a People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessel in the Taiwan Straight. Which PLAN vessel this pertains to remains unclear, although multiple outlets suggest it was to have been one of China's two existing aircraft carriers; either Type 001 Liaoning or Type 002 Shandong.

Hsieh suggested that the PLAN perform naval drills close to the port city of Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan in advance of his defection, prosecutors contend. This was suggested in order to prevent the lieutenant colonel from having to cross the sensitive "median line" which bisects the Taiwan Strait and serves as a de facto boundary between mainland China and Taiwan.

Circumventing the median line would have minimized the chances of the Chinook being intercepted by Republic of China Air Force (ROCAF) fighters on its way to the PLAN vessel, prosecutors argue.

"According to the instruction from the [mainland] agents, Lieutenant Colonel Hsieh was asked to fly the helicopter at low altitude along the coastline to the Chinese Communist carrier which would be staging drills close to the waters 24 nautical miles off [Taiwan]," the indictment reads, as per the South China Morning Post.

It isn't clear what would have happened to the other crew on the Chinook as the type always flies with a second pilot and crew chiefs.

However, the revelation that Hsieh discussed with PRC officials plans for his family to emigrate to Thailand underscores fears of a possible Chinese intervention in Taiwan in the minds of Taiwanese military officials. The promise of hefty payments and lavish gifts alone may, on its own, provide less weight in enticing defectors to China going forward given said concerns.

As The War Zone has highlighted repeatedly, both Taiwanese and U.S. officials have pointed to this likelihood of a Chinese intervention in Taiwan for some time. Senior U.S. military officials have noted the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) could be in a position to launch an invasion against Taiwan by 2027, or potentially sooner. There is has been a major uptick in escalatory aerial and naval drills squared against Taiwan by China's military. These have significantly increased in the past 18 months, particularly following former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August last year.While legal proceedings connected to Hsieh's alleged espionage activities have only just begun, the new revelations no doubt point to a broader and potentially troubling range of factors motivating Taiwanese military officials to defect to China.

Why China would want this helicopter isn't perfectly clear, but the PLA does not fly a tandem rotor type at this time, but they are surely looking to develop improved heavy-lift designs. The CH-47SD model is something of a precursor to more recent models of the Chinook, which would have made it even more enticing for reverse engineering purposes. The avionics onboard as well as the crew's potential intelligence value could have also been attractive.

In terms of financial compensation, Hsieh was initially offered $6,355 USD per month, equivalent to some $200,000 in New Taiwan Dollars (NTD), to defect and deliver the helicopter. However, he declined the offer, owing to the significant risks involved. A counter-offer of $15 million USD, which reports suggest came to half the overall cost of the helicopter, along with a $1 million USD "deposit" was subsequently agreed between Hsieh and Chinese officials, according to the indictment.

From the start, it was agreed by the mainland side that Hsieh’s wife and children would be helped to emigrate to Thailand — specifically via sourcing Thai visas — should a potential invasion of Taiwan by China occur in the near future. According to Taiwanese prosecutors, Hsieh conducted a teleconference with Chinese operatives in July to discuss the details of the defection, as well as contingency plans for his family’s emigration to Thailand.

Of course, China has a track record of courting Taiwanese military officers to defect, prompting efforts by Taiwan's law makers to clamp down on its neighbors' ability to steal sensitive information. Speaking to lawmakers today, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said of Hsieh's indictment, "I feel pained too, to have discovered a case like this and those allegedly involved must be dealt with according to the law."

A separate investigation has been completed by Taiwan’s military and security agencies into Hsieh's case, the country’s Ministry of Defense noted.

However, the revelation that Hsieh discussed with PRC officials plans for his family to emigrate to Thailand underscores fears of a possible Chinese intervention in Taiwan in the minds of Taiwanese military officials. The promise of hefty payments and lavish gifts alone may, on its own, provide less weight in enticing defectors to China going forward given said concerns.

As The War Zone has highlighted repeatedly, both Taiwanese and U.S. officials have pointed to this likelihood of a Chinese intervention in Taiwan for some time. Senior U.S. military officials have noted the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) could be in a position to launch an invasion against Taiwan by 2027, or potentially sooner. There is has been a major uptick in escalatory aerial and naval drills squared against Taiwan by China's military. These have significantly increased in the past 18 months, particularly following former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August last year.While legal proceedings connected to Hsieh's alleged espionage activities have only just begun, the new revelations no doubt point to a broader and potentially troubling range of factors motivating Taiwanese military officials to defect to China.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-china-reports
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Old 12th Dec 2023, 12:26
  #1953 (permalink)  
 
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China Offers Taiwan Officer $15 Million For Chinook

There's a thread started on that in rotorheads.
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Old 15th Dec 2023, 23:03
  #1954 (permalink)  
 
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Chinese vessels at Ayungin seen in ‘invasion’ mode (msn.com)


Last edited by havoc; 15th Dec 2023 at 23:04. Reason: bad link
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Old 18th Dec 2023, 23:08
  #1955 (permalink)  
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Enola Gay

US to reclaim WWII Tinian airfield in Pacific, clearing jungle by summer

The U.S. military will make "significant progress" toward reclaiming a World War II-era airfield on the Pacific island of Tinian in the upcoming months, an air force general said, part of an initiative to disperse aircraft across the Indo-Pacific region as China's missile threat continues to grow.

The U.S. Air Force is stepping up construction at the Tinian North airfield, once used by the largest B-29 bomber fleet during World War II, and at the Tinian International airfield, Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander of the Pacific Air Forces, said in an interview on Wednesday.

Air force general hopes for more trilateral exercises with Japan, South Korea. "If you pay attention in the next few months, you will see significant progress, especially at Tinian North," Wilsbach said.

The airfield "has extensive pavement underneath the overgrown jungle. We'll be clearing that jungle out between now and summertime," Wilsbach said, adding that it will be "an extensive" facility once construction is complete. Wilsbach declined to comment on when the airstrip will be operational.

Tinian lies about 200 kilometers north of Guam and is part of the Northern Mariana Islands. Revitalizing the outpost is meant to advance the air force's operational strategy known as Agile Combat Employment. It calls for moving aircraft to as many locations as possible in the western Pacific to avoid an enemy's missile strikes in a crisis, a major shift from post-Cold War strategy.

"You create a targeting problem, and you may actually take some hits, but you still have preponderance of your forces still creating effect," Wilsbach said of the distributed force posture in a contingency.

The U.S. military secured access this year to locations in the Philippines and Papua New Genia while Washington and Canberra agreed to upgrade infrastructure at two air bases in northern Australia. To advance a free and open Indo-Pacific, the U.S. will build on the momentum of trilateral defense cooperation with Japan and South Korea, Wilsbach said.

"It wasn't too long ago where trilateral operations were out of the question," the general said. "Even this year, we have done a few of them already and... some of them that you probably haven't heard of that are ongoing," he continued, indicating the three countries have worked more closely than publicly known.

In October, the U.S., Japan and South Korea conducted their first trilateral air drills, marking a major milestone after the leaders of the countries vowed to enhance the defense relations at a Camp David summit in August.

While declining to provide details of upcoming trilateral exercise plans, Wilsbach stressed that "you can at least expect this to go on at the same level." "I don't know if I would say increase, but it would be my desire to see it increase," he added.

Wilsbach also noted that trilateral cooperation with Japan and Australia is "really positive." During the Pacific Air Chiefs Symposium in Hawaii last month, Wilsbach met with his Japanese and Australian counterparts to discuss future cooperation "in a number of ways," the general said.

Washington and Canberra agreed to increase trilateral joint exercises with Tokyo in northern Australia at the bilateral AUSMIN ministerial dialogue in July. To that end, the three countries are working out a detailed action plan on military activities including combined F-35 training.

https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/lo...tinian-island/
​​​​​​​
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Old 19th Dec 2023, 18:17
  #1956 (permalink)  
 
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I routinely hear pundits opine in an admiring tone that China plays the long game, unlike the West. However China’s actions have only resulted in an increasing unified block of regional powers working together to thwart China’s ambitions.

Like Russia their foreign policy seems to be a massive own goal. Instead of cowing the regional powers they have only strengthened them.
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Old 21st Dec 2023, 20:54
  #1957 (permalink)  
 
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Northrop are planning to triple production capacity of the radar for the E-7 from the capability of 2 per year to 4. With the capability to surge up to 6 if future anticipated orders comes. Seems like they are talking with a few more indopacific countries. Not sure who it would be, maybe japan and singapre and few extra for south korea

https://www.defenseone.com/business/...-radar/392876/
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Old 26th Dec 2023, 15:57
  #1958 (permalink)  
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https://nationalinterest.org/feature...weapons-207811

Japan Is Destined to Have Nuclear Weapons - Barry Gewen*

“The Japanese have] a pretty clear view of where they’re going; they’re heading towards becoming a nuclear power in five years.” - Henry Kissinger, April 2023.


* https://nationalinterest.org/feature...y-gewen-203466
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Old 26th Dec 2023, 20:53
  #1959 (permalink)  
 
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Works for me. If Pakistan have some, I am happy for the Japanese to join the club.
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Old 28th Dec 2023, 15:33
  #1960 (permalink)  
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https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/brit...o-visit-japan/

British Carrier Strike Group to visit Japan

The UK’s Carrier Strike Group will visit Japan as part of the flagship 2025 Indo-Pacific deployment, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has announced today.

The group, comprised of an aircraft carrier, her escorts and her aircraft, will work alongside the Japanese Self Defence Forces and other partners to help defend peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

On a visit to Japan’s Yokosuka Naval Base, the Defence Secretary highlighted the importance of the UK exercising the best capabilities our Armed Forces have to offer alongside partners in the region. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said:

“The strength and global reach of the UK’s Armed Forces should never be underestimated. The Carrier Strike Group 2025 is another tangible example of our ability to deploy globally. Such deployments send a strong deterrence message while presenting important opportunities for engagements with key partners. Japan is our closest security partner in Asia and the task group’s visit to the country will only serve to strengthen our military and diplomatic ties.”…
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