The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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Vietnam Ramps Up Spratly Islands Dredging in the South China Sea | Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
Over the last year, Vietnam has continued with a substantial program of dredging and landfill work in the Spratly Islands which began in 2021.
Since AMTI last surveyed these efforts in December 2022, Vietnam has created another 330 acres of land, bringing its total during the current spate of building to 750 acres.
By contrast, Vietnam had created just 120 acres of land in the Spratlys between 2012 and 2022. This all adds up to about a quarter of the more than 3,200 acres of land created by China from 2013 to 2016, but it is far more island expansion than any other claimant besides China has undertaken. And in October 2023, Vietnam began new dredging at two additional outposts.
Five small and medium-sized outposts stand out in terms of the acreage of new land.
Barque Canada Reef has undergone the largest transformation by far. Formerly one of Vietnam’s smallest outposts, over 210 acres of new land have been created at Barque Canada in the last year, making it now the largest Vietnamese-occupied feature in the South China Sea.
Landfill and harbor dredging has continued at Pearson Reef and Namyit Island, where 163 and 119 acres have been added since work began in 2021. Work has also continued at Sand Cay and Tennent Reef, which have been expanded by 82 and 62 acres respectively since 2021.
In order to accelerate its dredging efforts, Vietnam has turned to a tool that it had previously shied away from: cutter suction dredgers.
Seen in imagery aiding with the massive expansion of Barque Canada Reef and deepening the harbors at Pearson Reef and Namyit Island, these dredgers are of the same type that China was criticized for using during its island-building campaign in 2014-2017 due to their outsize ecological impact.
This October, Vietnam began dredging at two additional features: South Reef and Central Reef.
Dredging at these features has proceeded thus far using Vietnam’s more typical method of building temporary causeways to allow construction vehicles to scoop sediment from surrounding shallow reef areas.
Dredging has continued at a smaller scale at Alison Reef, Cornwallis South Reef, Ladd Reef, and Discovery Great Reef, which each have less than 20 acres of new land.
But the rapid enlargement of similarly small Barque Canada Reef over the last year means that a major expansion of any of these reefs in the future cannot be ruled out.
Vietnam’s efforts thus far have remained focused primarily on dredging and landfill, with construction of infrastructure yet to begin in earnest at most features. Preliminary construction of tunnels/trenches of a type common among Vietnamese outposts can be seen at Namyit Island.
It has been speculated that Vietnam would use its expansion efforts to construct a second airstrip in the Spratly Islands, but the current arrangement of landfill at Namyit Island and Pearson Reef does not have allowance for a runway large enough for military use.
The new scale of Barque Canada Reef would allow for the possibility of a runway, but there are no indications of efforts to construct one, with work currently focused on expanding the land area.
Over the last year, Vietnam has continued with a substantial program of dredging and landfill work in the Spratly Islands which began in 2021.
Since AMTI last surveyed these efforts in December 2022, Vietnam has created another 330 acres of land, bringing its total during the current spate of building to 750 acres.
By contrast, Vietnam had created just 120 acres of land in the Spratlys between 2012 and 2022. This all adds up to about a quarter of the more than 3,200 acres of land created by China from 2013 to 2016, but it is far more island expansion than any other claimant besides China has undertaken. And in October 2023, Vietnam began new dredging at two additional outposts.
Five small and medium-sized outposts stand out in terms of the acreage of new land.
Barque Canada Reef has undergone the largest transformation by far. Formerly one of Vietnam’s smallest outposts, over 210 acres of new land have been created at Barque Canada in the last year, making it now the largest Vietnamese-occupied feature in the South China Sea.
Landfill and harbor dredging has continued at Pearson Reef and Namyit Island, where 163 and 119 acres have been added since work began in 2021. Work has also continued at Sand Cay and Tennent Reef, which have been expanded by 82 and 62 acres respectively since 2021.
In order to accelerate its dredging efforts, Vietnam has turned to a tool that it had previously shied away from: cutter suction dredgers.
Seen in imagery aiding with the massive expansion of Barque Canada Reef and deepening the harbors at Pearson Reef and Namyit Island, these dredgers are of the same type that China was criticized for using during its island-building campaign in 2014-2017 due to their outsize ecological impact.
This October, Vietnam began dredging at two additional features: South Reef and Central Reef.
Dredging at these features has proceeded thus far using Vietnam’s more typical method of building temporary causeways to allow construction vehicles to scoop sediment from surrounding shallow reef areas.
Dredging has continued at a smaller scale at Alison Reef, Cornwallis South Reef, Ladd Reef, and Discovery Great Reef, which each have less than 20 acres of new land.
But the rapid enlargement of similarly small Barque Canada Reef over the last year means that a major expansion of any of these reefs in the future cannot be ruled out.
Vietnam’s efforts thus far have remained focused primarily on dredging and landfill, with construction of infrastructure yet to begin in earnest at most features. Preliminary construction of tunnels/trenches of a type common among Vietnamese outposts can be seen at Namyit Island.
It has been speculated that Vietnam would use its expansion efforts to construct a second airstrip in the Spratly Islands, but the current arrangement of landfill at Namyit Island and Pearson Reef does not have allowance for a runway large enough for military use.
The new scale of Barque Canada Reef would allow for the possibility of a runway, but there are no indications of efforts to construct one, with work currently focused on expanding the land area.
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FMS for Japanese purchase of 400 tomahawks have been granted
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/11/...siles-systems/
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/11/...siles-systems/
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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https://www.theguardian.com/australi...s-sonar-pulses
Australian naval divers injured after being subjected to Chinese warship’s sonar pulses
Australian naval divers have been injured after an “unsafe and unprofessional” run-in with a Chinese warship.
The acting prime minister, Richard Marles, on Saturday said the Australian government had expressed “serious concerns” to Chinese officials after the HMAS Toowoomba encountered a People’s Liberation Army-Navy destroyer on Tuesday.
The Toowoomba was in international waters in Japan’s exclusive economic zone, having worked to enforce United Nations sanctions, and was on its way to a scheduled port visit when fishing nets became entangled around its propellers.
The ship stopped so naval divers could clear the nets and its crew communicated what it was doing through the usual maritime channels, Marles said in a statement.
While the diving operation took place, the Chinese PLA-N destroyer DDG-139 came towards the Toowoomba, prompting its crew to reiterate a dive was under way and ask for the warship to stay clear.
The Chinese vessel acknowledged the message but came even closer, and was soon after detected operating its hull-mounted sonar, posing a risk to the Australian divers’ safety, Marles said.
The divers, who were assessed after they surfaced, sustained minor injuries likely because they were subjected to the sonar pulses, he said.
“This is unsafe and unprofessional conduct,” Marles said. “The safety and wellbeing of our [Australian Defence Force] personnel continues to be our utmost priority.
“Australia expects all countries, including China, to operate their militaries in a professional and safe manner.”…
Divers exposed to high levels of underwater sound can suffer from dizziness, hearing damage or injuries to other organs, depending on the frequency and intensity of the sound, according to the UK’s Diving Medical Advisory Committee….
Australian naval divers injured after being subjected to Chinese warship’s sonar pulses
Australian naval divers have been injured after an “unsafe and unprofessional” run-in with a Chinese warship.
The acting prime minister, Richard Marles, on Saturday said the Australian government had expressed “serious concerns” to Chinese officials after the HMAS Toowoomba encountered a People’s Liberation Army-Navy destroyer on Tuesday.
The Toowoomba was in international waters in Japan’s exclusive economic zone, having worked to enforce United Nations sanctions, and was on its way to a scheduled port visit when fishing nets became entangled around its propellers.
The ship stopped so naval divers could clear the nets and its crew communicated what it was doing through the usual maritime channels, Marles said in a statement.
While the diving operation took place, the Chinese PLA-N destroyer DDG-139 came towards the Toowoomba, prompting its crew to reiterate a dive was under way and ask for the warship to stay clear.
The Chinese vessel acknowledged the message but came even closer, and was soon after detected operating its hull-mounted sonar, posing a risk to the Australian divers’ safety, Marles said.
The divers, who were assessed after they surfaced, sustained minor injuries likely because they were subjected to the sonar pulses, he said.
“This is unsafe and unprofessional conduct,” Marles said. “The safety and wellbeing of our [Australian Defence Force] personnel continues to be our utmost priority.
“Australia expects all countries, including China, to operate their militaries in a professional and safe manner.”…
Divers exposed to high levels of underwater sound can suffer from dizziness, hearing damage or injuries to other organs, depending on the frequency and intensity of the sound, according to the UK’s Diving Medical Advisory Committee….
can't afford to take it any further..............................
It’s a tightrope in how you deal with the level of recklessness and aggression from the PLA but this response is too feeble. It normalises events and we are a whisker away from something way more serious.
Firmer language and a push for a bigger Cope Thunder next year with QUAD members should be adequate push back.
Firmer language and a push for a bigger Cope Thunder next year with QUAD members should be adequate push back.
Seems to me deliberate targeting of RAN personnel is a demonstration of hostile intent. Dealing with PLA Forces is like lion taming, back down and you are dead meat, stand up and roar back and you get their respect.
So what are you suggesting HMAS Toowoomba should have done?
Plus operating a sonar in this case was indeed a dedicated unfriendly act but it is hard to be classified as a military aggressive act which would warrant firing a salvo. Symmetric response would be to also activate your Sonar but what would be the benefit? Maybe they need to install powerfull underwater loudspeakers which blow off the headphones of the Sonar operators... ;-)
As I understood the PLA ship was told there was divers in the water, and then activated their Sonar and did not stop even when told they were injuring RAN personnel in the water. I would suggest that next step is to tell them you are going to light them up with a fire control Radar with missiles on route unless the Sonar stops. The PLA will keep pushing with more and more aggressive steps unless some redlines get drawn.
Using the Sonar was a deliberate act design to injure ships personnel, that can't be allowed to stand.
Using the Sonar was a deliberate act design to injure ships personnel, that can't be allowed to stand.
Or you just take your divers out of the water into the support boat and wait until the Chinese get bored.
We let them build on the shoals. China was the US banker at the time. The courts had said their was no China claim to the shoals. Through the UN we should have put in place a blockade, for want of a better PC word.
As I understood the PLA ship was told there was divers in the water
Maybe they caught some of that famous Chinese sub netting.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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Like Japan before it, China has peaked. With an aging population and the reserve of peasants from the land who can feed into the city industries its prospects are bleak - there are also articles reflecting how they can no longer attract the technologically skilled men they need into the military.
Their window of opportunity to overtake the USA as the dominant economy, an£ currency has closed and India will increasingly be the dominant power in the east…
The question is whether they will seek to move against Taiwan whilst they can - and to distract from the bad news at home…
China’s rise is reversing - FT
China’s share of the global economy is declining, and most economists expect this to continue.
"In 2022, China's share of the world economy shrank a bit. This year it will shrink more significantly, to 17%. That two-year drop of 1.4 per cent is the largest since the 1960s."
These numbers are in "nominal" dollar terms — unadjusted for inflation — the measure that most accurately captures a nation's relative economic strength.
China aims to reclaim the imperial status it held from the 16th to early 19th centuries, when its share of world economic output peaked at one-third, but that goal may be slipping out of reach.
China's decline could reorder the world.
Since the 1990s, the country's share of global GDP grew mainly at the expense of Europe and Japan, which have seen their shares hold more or less steady over the past two years. The gap left by China has been filled mainly by the US and by other emerging nations.
To put this in perspective, the world economy is expected to grow by $8tn in 2022 and 2023 to $105n. China will account for none of that gain, the US will account for 45 per cent, and other emerging nations for 50 per cent.
Half the gain for emerging nations will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. That is a striking sign of possible power shifts to come.
Moreover, China's slipping share of world GDP in nominal terms is not based on independent or foreign sources. The nominal figures are published as part of their official GDP data. So China's rise is reversing by Beijing's own account.
Further, over the past decade, China's government has grown more meddlesome, and its debts are historically high for a developing country. These forces are slowing growth in productivity, measured as output per worker.
This combination — fewer workers, and anaemic growth in output per worker — will make it difficult in the extreme for China to start winning back share in the global economy.
In nominal dollar terms, China's GDP is on track to decline in 2023, for the first time since a large devaluation of the renminbi in 1994.
Given the constraints to real GDP growth, in the coming years Beijing can only regain global share with a spike in inflation or in the value of the renminbi — but neither is likely.
China is one of the few economies suffering from deflation, and it also faces a debt-fuelled property bust, which typically leads to a devaluation of the local currency.
Investors are pulling money out of China at a record pace, adding to pressure on the renminbi. Foreigners cut investment in Chinese factories and other projects by $12n in the third quarter — the first such drop since records begin. Locals, who often flee a troubled market before foreigners do, are leaving too.
Chinese investors are making outward investments at an unusually rapid pace and prowling the world for real estate deals.
Their window of opportunity to overtake the USA as the dominant economy, an£ currency has closed and India will increasingly be the dominant power in the east…
The question is whether they will seek to move against Taiwan whilst they can - and to distract from the bad news at home…
China’s rise is reversing - FT
China’s share of the global economy is declining, and most economists expect this to continue.
"In 2022, China's share of the world economy shrank a bit. This year it will shrink more significantly, to 17%. That two-year drop of 1.4 per cent is the largest since the 1960s."
These numbers are in "nominal" dollar terms — unadjusted for inflation — the measure that most accurately captures a nation's relative economic strength.
China aims to reclaim the imperial status it held from the 16th to early 19th centuries, when its share of world economic output peaked at one-third, but that goal may be slipping out of reach.
China's decline could reorder the world.
Since the 1990s, the country's share of global GDP grew mainly at the expense of Europe and Japan, which have seen their shares hold more or less steady over the past two years. The gap left by China has been filled mainly by the US and by other emerging nations.
To put this in perspective, the world economy is expected to grow by $8tn in 2022 and 2023 to $105n. China will account for none of that gain, the US will account for 45 per cent, and other emerging nations for 50 per cent.
Half the gain for emerging nations will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. That is a striking sign of possible power shifts to come.
Moreover, China's slipping share of world GDP in nominal terms is not based on independent or foreign sources. The nominal figures are published as part of their official GDP data. So China's rise is reversing by Beijing's own account.
Further, over the past decade, China's government has grown more meddlesome, and its debts are historically high for a developing country. These forces are slowing growth in productivity, measured as output per worker.
This combination — fewer workers, and anaemic growth in output per worker — will make it difficult in the extreme for China to start winning back share in the global economy.
In nominal dollar terms, China's GDP is on track to decline in 2023, for the first time since a large devaluation of the renminbi in 1994.
Given the constraints to real GDP growth, in the coming years Beijing can only regain global share with a spike in inflation or in the value of the renminbi — but neither is likely.
China is one of the few economies suffering from deflation, and it also faces a debt-fuelled property bust, which typically leads to a devaluation of the local currency.
Investors are pulling money out of China at a record pace, adding to pressure on the renminbi. Foreigners cut investment in Chinese factories and other projects by $12n in the third quarter — the first such drop since records begin. Locals, who often flee a troubled market before foreigners do, are leaving too.
Chinese investors are making outward investments at an unusually rapid pace and prowling the world for real estate deals.
Please forgive my skepticism: I'll take Mark Twain's view and suggest that reports of China's demise are greatly exaggerated.
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