The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Perhaps we all have it wrong?
The rhetoric about the reunification of China and Taiwan being the bogey man is all just bluster for the domestic audience, to keep them from seeing what a basket case the country is becoming.
They would struggle to take Taiwan and even if they did, the international backlash would be severe, likely crippling the Chinese economy further.
The metropolitan Chinese love their new improved "Western" lifestyle.
That would be seriously curtailed in a war with Taiwan and skirmishes with the US and Japan.
No doubt the Norks would join in and the South Koreans would have something to say about the situation too.
China has nothing to gain from this.
The rhetoric about the reunification of China and Taiwan being the bogey man is all just bluster for the domestic audience, to keep them from seeing what a basket case the country is becoming.
They would struggle to take Taiwan and even if they did, the international backlash would be severe, likely crippling the Chinese economy further.
The metropolitan Chinese love their new improved "Western" lifestyle.
That would be seriously curtailed in a war with Taiwan and skirmishes with the US and Japan.
No doubt the Norks would join in and the South Koreans would have something to say about the situation too.
China has nothing to gain from this.
Perhaps we all have it wrong?
The rhetoric about the reunification of China and Taiwan being the bogey man is all just bluster for the domestic audience, to keep them from seeing what a basket case the country is becoming.
They would struggle to take Taiwan and even if they did, the international backlash would be severe, likely crippling the Chinese economy further.
The metropolitan Chinese love their new improved "Western" lifestyle.
That would be seriously curtailed in a war with Taiwan and skirmishes with the US and Japan.
No doubt the Norks would join in and the South Koreans would have something to say about the situation too.
China has nothing to gain from this.
The rhetoric about the reunification of China and Taiwan being the bogey man is all just bluster for the domestic audience, to keep them from seeing what a basket case the country is becoming.
They would struggle to take Taiwan and even if they did, the international backlash would be severe, likely crippling the Chinese economy further.
The metropolitan Chinese love their new improved "Western" lifestyle.
That would be seriously curtailed in a war with Taiwan and skirmishes with the US and Japan.
No doubt the Norks would join in and the South Koreans would have something to say about the situation too.
China has nothing to gain from this.
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Absolutely GeeRam, however everyone has seen how the Russians have ballsed it up.
The Ukrainians had terrible kit, leadership and training in the early days.
The Taiwanese are a completely different proposition.
The quality of the kit the Chinese have, based on CCCP designs is not adequate for the job.
There would be a massacre crossing the straits in the initial days and the Chinese won't stand for that.
Xi has boxed himself into a corner. It was all dandy when the economy was growing at 7% a year. Now its likely in reverse.
He can't retire, because like Putin too many rely on him for their wealth and power.
They will turn on him like a pack of hungry dogs.
The Ukrainians had terrible kit, leadership and training in the early days.
The Taiwanese are a completely different proposition.
The quality of the kit the Chinese have, based on CCCP designs is not adequate for the job.
There would be a massacre crossing the straits in the initial days and the Chinese won't stand for that.
Xi has boxed himself into a corner. It was all dandy when the economy was growing at 7% a year. Now its likely in reverse.
He can't retire, because like Putin too many rely on him for their wealth and power.
They will turn on him like a pack of hungry dogs.
he'll just be quietly shunted aside - with a possible rumour of "medical reasons" . If he's lucky he'll be seen in public looking frail in about 5 years after the change of regime
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Japan is increasingly alarmed by the constant presence of Chinese vessels near the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea amid concerns that the row over the area could escalate and mirror recent maritime altercations between Beijing and Manila in the South China Sea.
Chinese warships have been spotted in the area and near the boundaries of Japan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), the Japanese defence ministry said on Wednesday without specifying a period of their presence, according to a report by the Yomiuri newspaper.
Japan deployed airborne early warning aircraft and at least one marine destroyer in response to Chinese vessels sailing near the disputed islands.
Chinese warships have been spotted in the area and near the boundaries of Japan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), the Japanese defence ministry said on Wednesday without specifying a period of their presence, according to a report by the Yomiuri newspaper.
Japan deployed airborne early warning aircraft and at least one marine destroyer in response to Chinese vessels sailing near the disputed islands.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Philippine Navy Alarmed By The Presence Of Over 200 Chinese ships At Mischief Reef
The Philippine Navy is concerned about more than 200 Chinese warships in the West Philippine Sea. These include People’s Liberation Army-Navy ships, maritime militia trawlers, and China Coast Guard vessels.
The swarm is centered on Mischief Reef, a disputed region under Chinese sovereignty only 20 nautical miles from Second Thomas Shoal, which the Philippines occupy.
The Philippine Navy’s spokesperson in the West Philippine Sea, Commodore Roy Vincent Trinidad, announced the fleet assembly while underlining how difficult it is to give a precise count because of the fleet’s frequent movement….
The Philippine Navy is concerned about more than 200 Chinese warships in the West Philippine Sea. These include People’s Liberation Army-Navy ships, maritime militia trawlers, and China Coast Guard vessels.
The swarm is centered on Mischief Reef, a disputed region under Chinese sovereignty only 20 nautical miles from Second Thomas Shoal, which the Philippines occupy.
The Philippine Navy’s spokesperson in the West Philippine Sea, Commodore Roy Vincent Trinidad, announced the fleet assembly while underlining how difficult it is to give a precise count because of the fleet’s frequent movement….
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/20...ms-stockpiles/
Supplier bottlenecks threaten US Navy effort to grow arms stockpiles
Supplier bottlenecks threaten US Navy effort to grow arms stockpiles
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://asiatimes.com/2024/02/chinas...to-zap-taiwan/
China’s new microwave weapon made to zap Taiwan
In what may be the first of its kind, Chinese scientists have unveiled a new Stirling engine-powered high-power microwave (HPM) weapon, marking a significant leap in directed-energy warfare technology with possible applications in future urban warfare scenarios.…..
China’s new microwave weapon made to zap Taiwan
In what may be the first of its kind, Chinese scientists have unveiled a new Stirling engine-powered high-power microwave (HPM) weapon, marking a significant leap in directed-energy warfare technology with possible applications in future urban warfare scenarios.…..
From the comments under ORAC's video:
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2024...trol-variants/
India prepares to buy 15 C295 maritime patrol variants
CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand — India is moving closer to buying 15 maritime patrol variants of the Airbus C295 aircraft, following permission from the country’s Defence Acquisition Council.
This initial approval from Feb. 16, called acceptance of necessity in Defence Ministry parlance, will see the Navy receive nine C295 medium-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft and the Coast Guard get six C295 multimission maritime aircraft.
Once a contract is signed, a joint venture between the French firm Airbus and the Indian business Tata Advanced Systems Ltd. would manufacture the aircraft in India.
The Air Force previously placed a contract for 56 C295 transport aircraft, of which the first 16 are under production in Spain and the remainder in Tata’s final assembly line in the Indian city of Vadodara.
Although Airbus offers a maritime patrol version of the C295 — Spain ordered 16 in December — the Indian Navy and Coast Guard platforms will receive locally made sensors such as an active electronically scanned array radar, identification friend or foe systems, data links, and electro-optic/infrared technology.
The Centre for Airborne Systems, a branch of the Defence Research and Development Organisation, is developing this equipment as part of the government’s efforts toward greater self-sufficiency in defense production.
Medium-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft would help India monitor nearby waters as well as gather electronic and communications intelligence. The aircraft would supplement 12 P-8I aircraft used for anti-submarine warfare.
With around 11 hours of endurance, the variant would also provide longer-range capability than existing Dornier 228 aircraft. The Navy is also set to receive 15 MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones to boost maritime surveillance.
The Indian government has expressed concern about the Chinese military’s activities in the Indian Ocean, and the Indian Navy has carried out anti-piracy operations in the nearby Gulf of Aden since 2008…..
India prepares to buy 15 C295 maritime patrol variants
CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand — India is moving closer to buying 15 maritime patrol variants of the Airbus C295 aircraft, following permission from the country’s Defence Acquisition Council.
This initial approval from Feb. 16, called acceptance of necessity in Defence Ministry parlance, will see the Navy receive nine C295 medium-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft and the Coast Guard get six C295 multimission maritime aircraft.
Once a contract is signed, a joint venture between the French firm Airbus and the Indian business Tata Advanced Systems Ltd. would manufacture the aircraft in India.
The Air Force previously placed a contract for 56 C295 transport aircraft, of which the first 16 are under production in Spain and the remainder in Tata’s final assembly line in the Indian city of Vadodara.
Although Airbus offers a maritime patrol version of the C295 — Spain ordered 16 in December — the Indian Navy and Coast Guard platforms will receive locally made sensors such as an active electronically scanned array radar, identification friend or foe systems, data links, and electro-optic/infrared technology.
The Centre for Airborne Systems, a branch of the Defence Research and Development Organisation, is developing this equipment as part of the government’s efforts toward greater self-sufficiency in defense production.
Medium-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft would help India monitor nearby waters as well as gather electronic and communications intelligence. The aircraft would supplement 12 P-8I aircraft used for anti-submarine warfare.
With around 11 hours of endurance, the variant would also provide longer-range capability than existing Dornier 228 aircraft. The Navy is also set to receive 15 MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones to boost maritime surveillance.
The Indian government has expressed concern about the Chinese military’s activities in the Indian Ocean, and the Indian Navy has carried out anti-piracy operations in the nearby Gulf of Aden since 2008…..
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Musk blocking Starshield to US forces in Taiwan - presumably because he doesn’t want to offend China…
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/24/hous...ld-taiwan.html
House China committee demands Elon Musk open SpaceX Starshield internet to U.S. troops in Taiwan
KEY POINTS
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/24/hous...ld-taiwan.html
House China committee demands Elon Musk open SpaceX Starshield internet to U.S. troops in Taiwan
KEY POINTS
- The House China committee sent a letter on Saturday to Elon Musk demanding that U.S. troops stationed in Taiwan get access to SpaceX’s Starshield, a satellite communication network designed specifically for the military.
- The letter came after Committee Chair Rep. Mike Gallagher and a delegation of lawmakers returned from a Taiwan visit where they learned that Starshield was not operational for American troops in and around the region.
- Taiwan governs itself independently of China, but Beijing officials have repeatedly made clear their intention to reunify the sovereign island with the mainland.
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I've often wondered about an easy way of bringing Taiwan to its knees. The majority of the electricity for Taipei is generated away from the city and brought in via very few power lines. I would have thought a few chaps with some semtex could knock out a few of the electrical pylons and take out the power from the city. That would essentially stop Taipei in its tracks as they electricity for everything - including bringing water in.
A bit to the east, but related ...
U.S. Coast Guardsmen inspected two Chinese vessels this month while screening the South Pacific for illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, according to an agency official. The U.S. Coast Guard and accompanying police officers from Kiribati boarded the fishing boats while on a joint patrol of the Pacific island nation's vast exclusive economic zone (EEZ), a Coast Guard spokesperson told Reuters on Monday. No issues were reported, the spokesperson said.
An EEZ extends 200 nautical miles from the coastline and grants countries a sovereign right to exploit underwater resources, such as vital fish stocks, within its limits. But they can be difficult to enforce for small nations like Kiribati, which had a population of just over 130,000, according to United Nations figures.
An EEZ extends 200 nautical miles from the coastline and grants countries a sovereign right to exploit underwater resources, such as vital fish stocks, within its limits. But they can be difficult to enforce for small nations like Kiribati, which had a population of just over 130,000, according to United Nations figures.
I've often wondered about an easy way of bringing Taiwan to its knees. The majority of the electricity for Taipei is generated away from the city and brought in via very few power lines. I would have thought a few chaps with some semtex could knock out a few of the electrical pylons and take out the power from the city. That would essentially stop Taipei in its tracks as they electricity for everything - including bringing water in.
yeah commit an act of war, certainly would bring taipei and SCS to its knees
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.defensehere.com/en/us-pe...sion-in-taiwan
US permanently deploys training mission in Taiwan
In an unprecedented move, US Special forces troops will be permanently stationed in Taiwan, Republic of China. According to Taiwan's United Daily News (UDN), the American 1st Special Forces Group is deployed for a permanent training mission on the island.
The 1st Special Forces Group is permanently stationed this year at two bases of the 101st Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion, a Taiwanese army special operations force.
Some of the US troops are based on Kinmen, a group of Taiwanese-controlled islands 10 kilometers from Xiamen, a Chinese port city. Another group is located on the Pescadores islands off the Taiwanese coast.
American troop presence in Taiwan contradicts China's "One China" policy, where the US is expected to recognize Beijing as the legitimate government of all China, including Taiwan.
The US has sent training missions to the island before but none has been reported to be permanent…..
US permanently deploys training mission in Taiwan
In an unprecedented move, US Special forces troops will be permanently stationed in Taiwan, Republic of China. According to Taiwan's United Daily News (UDN), the American 1st Special Forces Group is deployed for a permanent training mission on the island.
The 1st Special Forces Group is permanently stationed this year at two bases of the 101st Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion, a Taiwanese army special operations force.
Some of the US troops are based on Kinmen, a group of Taiwanese-controlled islands 10 kilometers from Xiamen, a Chinese port city. Another group is located on the Pescadores islands off the Taiwanese coast.
American troop presence in Taiwan contradicts China's "One China" policy, where the US is expected to recognize Beijing as the legitimate government of all China, including Taiwan.
The US has sent training missions to the island before but none has been reported to be permanent…..
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/polit...aiwan-tensions
Japan plans more bomb shelters for outlying islands amid ‘growing concern’ over Taiwan tensions
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Masafumi Iida, a leading China analyst at the National Institute for Defence Studies in Tokyo, told This Week in Asia there was “growing concern” in Tokyo that, should such a conflict break out, there is “only a small percentage of chance” that it would not involve Japan in some way.
National broadcaster NHK reported on Wednesday that design guidelines would be completed by the end of March before the proposals were presented to local governments. Basement levels of existing public facilities, such as schools, town halls and libraries, are likely to be the most appropriate venues.
Plans for shelters are in addition to proposals being drawn up for the evacuation of civilian residents of remote islands that have Japanese military facilities and might therefore become targets. Those plans, outlined in recent defence white papers, call for residents to be evacuated by sea or by air to the main Okinawa island and then to southern Kyushu.
Tokyo is concerned, however, that a sudden outbreak of hostilities involving Taiwan and close to Japanese islands such as Yonaguni – which is only 111km from Taiwan – would not give the Japanese authorities time to conduct an evacuation, meaning that residents would be required to shelter in place.
NHK reported that government officials had been examining existing structures on the islands and had identified robust concrete buildings that could be modified to provide shelter. Such buildings would be retrofitted with concrete walls at least 30cm thick to withstand missile and bomb blasts, and be equipped with independent power sources, communications systems and storage for food and medical supplies.
The proposal calls for every person to have 2 square metres (21.5 square feet) of space and for the supplies to be sufficient to support evacuees for up to two weeks.…..
Japan plans more bomb shelters for outlying islands amid ‘growing concern’ over Taiwan tensions
.
- Design guidelines for bomb shelters are expected to be completed next month, while proposals for evacuation of residents on remote islands are also being drawn up.
- Officials are also identifying existing buildings on outlying islands to be modified to provide shelter and sufficient supplies for residents whose mobility may be limited.
Masafumi Iida, a leading China analyst at the National Institute for Defence Studies in Tokyo, told This Week in Asia there was “growing concern” in Tokyo that, should such a conflict break out, there is “only a small percentage of chance” that it would not involve Japan in some way.
National broadcaster NHK reported on Wednesday that design guidelines would be completed by the end of March before the proposals were presented to local governments. Basement levels of existing public facilities, such as schools, town halls and libraries, are likely to be the most appropriate venues.
Plans for shelters are in addition to proposals being drawn up for the evacuation of civilian residents of remote islands that have Japanese military facilities and might therefore become targets. Those plans, outlined in recent defence white papers, call for residents to be evacuated by sea or by air to the main Okinawa island and then to southern Kyushu.
Tokyo is concerned, however, that a sudden outbreak of hostilities involving Taiwan and close to Japanese islands such as Yonaguni – which is only 111km from Taiwan – would not give the Japanese authorities time to conduct an evacuation, meaning that residents would be required to shelter in place.
NHK reported that government officials had been examining existing structures on the islands and had identified robust concrete buildings that could be modified to provide shelter. Such buildings would be retrofitted with concrete walls at least 30cm thick to withstand missile and bomb blasts, and be equipped with independent power sources, communications systems and storage for food and medical supplies.
The proposal calls for every person to have 2 square metres (21.5 square feet) of space and for the supplies to be sufficient to support evacuees for up to two weeks.…..