The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Like Japan before it, China has peaked. With an aging population and the reserve of peasants from the land who can feed into the city industries its prospects are bleak - there are also articles reflecting how they can no longer attract the technologically skilled men they need into the military.
Their window of opportunity to overtake the USA as the dominant economy, an£ currency has closed and India will increasingly be the dominant power in the east…
The question is whether they will seek to move against Taiwan whilst they can - and to distract from the bad news at home…
China’s rise is reversing - FT
China’s share of the global economy is declining, and most economists expect this to continue.
"In 2022, China's share of the world economy shrank a bit. This year it will shrink more significantly, to 17%. That two-year drop of 1.4 per cent is the largest since the 1960s."
These numbers are in "nominal" dollar terms — unadjusted for inflation — the measure that most accurately captures a nation's relative economic strength.
China aims to reclaim the imperial status it held from the 16th to early 19th centuries, when its share of world economic output peaked at one-third, but that goal may be slipping out of reach.
China's decline could reorder the world.
Since the 1990s, the country's share of global GDP grew mainly at the expense of Europe and Japan, which have seen their shares hold more or less steady over the past two years. The gap left by China has been filled mainly by the US and by other emerging nations.
To put this in perspective, the world economy is expected to grow by $8tn in 2022 and 2023 to $105n. China will account for none of that gain, the US will account for 45 per cent, and other emerging nations for 50 per cent.
Half the gain for emerging nations will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. That is a striking sign of possible power shifts to come.
Moreover, China's slipping share of world GDP in nominal terms is not based on independent or foreign sources. The nominal figures are published as part of their official GDP data. So China's rise is reversing by Beijing's own account.
Further, over the past decade, China's government has grown more meddlesome, and its debts are historically high for a developing country. These forces are slowing growth in productivity, measured as output per worker.
This combination — fewer workers, and anaemic growth in output per worker — will make it difficult in the extreme for China to start winning back share in the global economy.
In nominal dollar terms, China's GDP is on track to decline in 2023, for the first time since a large devaluation of the renminbi in 1994.
Given the constraints to real GDP growth, in the coming years Beijing can only regain global share with a spike in inflation or in the value of the renminbi — but neither is likely.
China is one of the few economies suffering from deflation, and it also faces a debt-fuelled property bust, which typically leads to a devaluation of the local currency.
Investors are pulling money out of China at a record pace, adding to pressure on the renminbi. Foreigners cut investment in Chinese factories and other projects by $12n in the third quarter — the first such drop since records begin. Locals, who often flee a troubled market before foreigners do, are leaving too.
Chinese investors are making outward investments at an unusually rapid pace and prowling the world for real estate deals.
Their window of opportunity to overtake the USA as the dominant economy, an£ currency has closed and India will increasingly be the dominant power in the east…
The question is whether they will seek to move against Taiwan whilst they can - and to distract from the bad news at home…
China’s rise is reversing - FT
China’s share of the global economy is declining, and most economists expect this to continue.
"In 2022, China's share of the world economy shrank a bit. This year it will shrink more significantly, to 17%. That two-year drop of 1.4 per cent is the largest since the 1960s."
These numbers are in "nominal" dollar terms — unadjusted for inflation — the measure that most accurately captures a nation's relative economic strength.
China aims to reclaim the imperial status it held from the 16th to early 19th centuries, when its share of world economic output peaked at one-third, but that goal may be slipping out of reach.
China's decline could reorder the world.
Since the 1990s, the country's share of global GDP grew mainly at the expense of Europe and Japan, which have seen their shares hold more or less steady over the past two years. The gap left by China has been filled mainly by the US and by other emerging nations.
To put this in perspective, the world economy is expected to grow by $8tn in 2022 and 2023 to $105n. China will account for none of that gain, the US will account for 45 per cent, and other emerging nations for 50 per cent.
Half the gain for emerging nations will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. That is a striking sign of possible power shifts to come.
Moreover, China's slipping share of world GDP in nominal terms is not based on independent or foreign sources. The nominal figures are published as part of their official GDP data. So China's rise is reversing by Beijing's own account.
Further, over the past decade, China's government has grown more meddlesome, and its debts are historically high for a developing country. These forces are slowing growth in productivity, measured as output per worker.
This combination — fewer workers, and anaemic growth in output per worker — will make it difficult in the extreme for China to start winning back share in the global economy.
In nominal dollar terms, China's GDP is on track to decline in 2023, for the first time since a large devaluation of the renminbi in 1994.
Given the constraints to real GDP growth, in the coming years Beijing can only regain global share with a spike in inflation or in the value of the renminbi — but neither is likely.
China is one of the few economies suffering from deflation, and it also faces a debt-fuelled property bust, which typically leads to a devaluation of the local currency.
Investors are pulling money out of China at a record pace, adding to pressure on the renminbi. Foreigners cut investment in Chinese factories and other projects by $12n in the third quarter — the first such drop since records begin. Locals, who often flee a troubled market before foreigners do, are leaving too.
Chinese investors are making outward investments at an unusually rapid pace and prowling the world for real estate deals.
China is basically at peak dangerousness in the next few years.
After that, it's all downhill...
I know a few people who now used to work in china. Western flight from china is bad atm, it cant get much worse as there isn't many left. One lived in an apartment building for westerners. There was 120 apartment, you used to have wait for someone to move out ( could be months). The day he moved out, there was only 3 inhabited apartments left. Also add in that chinas biggest single non govt employer, foxcon, is having big issues atm. The owner of foxcon is running for presidency of taiwan and the CCP is not happy and have been giving him a hard time so hes moving business to India, vietnam and indonesia
Those lying Aussies....
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/na...oomba-incident
"completely untrue
We urge the Australian side to respect the facts, stop making reckless and irresponsible accusations against China, do more to build up mutual trust between the two sides, and create a positive atmosphere for the sound development of relations between the two countries and two militaries.
The Chinese military is strictly disciplined and always operates professionally in accordance with the international law and international common practices.
We hope relevant parties will stop making trouble in front of China’s doorsteps and work with China to preserve the momentum of improving and growing China–Australia ties."
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/na...oomba-incident
"completely untrue
We urge the Australian side to respect the facts, stop making reckless and irresponsible accusations against China, do more to build up mutual trust between the two sides, and create a positive atmosphere for the sound development of relations between the two countries and two militaries.
The Chinese military is strictly disciplined and always operates professionally in accordance with the international law and international common practices.
We hope relevant parties will stop making trouble in front of China’s doorsteps and work with China to preserve the momentum of improving and growing China–Australia ties."
Maybe.
PRC has structural issues that need action to head off that is not likely with the current emperor. They could, but will they? they have an upside down demographics and a bubble of biblical proportions, and the boss smokes those that bring bad news,
Nothing can go wrong with# dat!
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
BREAKING: Reports that China's most advanced ship 980 hull number Type 071 landing ship (Longhushan) is on fire
Maybe.
PRC has structural issues that need action to head off that is not likely with the current emperor. They could, but will they? they have an upside down demographics and a bubble of biblical proportions, and the boss smokes those that bring bad news,
Nothing can go wrong with# dat!
PRC has structural issues that need action to head off that is not likely with the current emperor. They could, but will they? they have an upside down demographics and a bubble of biblical proportions, and the boss smokes those that bring bad news,
Nothing can go wrong with# dat!
Join Date: Feb 2006
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Chinas most modern naval vessel, a landing ship is on fire... it looks bad.
Apparently they were having a feast for the ship crews moral and lit a flaming duck dish with high proof alcohol and up went the ship...Flaming duck to dead duck in one.
Apparently they were having a feast for the ship crews moral and lit a flaming duck dish with high proof alcohol and up went the ship...Flaming duck to dead duck in one.
I found the opener to the Moose Census article to be more interesting.
China Calls America's Bluff in the South China Sea (msn.com)
The Philippines and the United States—one of the oldest alliances in Asia—began three days of joint air and sea patrols in the South China Sea on Tuesday aimed at pushing back against China's constant probing in the region.
The exercise, which runs through Thursday, involves the Philippine Air Force and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). It is taking place in the "West Philippine Sea," Manila's name for the portion of the South China Sea that falls within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, where Beijing has been actively asserting its claim to contested islands, reefs and atolls in the Spratly Islands archipelago.
In a recent visit to Hawaii, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued one of his strongest rebukes yet of China's "persistent unlawful threats and challenges against Philippine sovereign rights and jurisdictions." In his 17 months in office, Marcos' government has filed dozens, if not hundreds, of diplomatic protests with Beijing over the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia's harassment of Filipino fishermen and coast guard vessels.
In at least half a dozen run-ins around Manila-held Second Thomas Shoal since August, the Philippines has accused Chinese ships of unleashing water cannons, setting up barriers and blockades, and ramming. In February, a Philippine Coast Guard crew was said to have been temporarily blinded by a Chinese coast guard ship's "military-grade laser."
Each of the incidents drew a strongly worded response from the U.S. State Department and last month from the U.S. president himself. Joe Biden reaffirmed the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951 and pledged to respond militarily against any attack on Filipino servicemembers, including in the South China Sea.
But the constant Chinese pressure in the "gray zone"—actions that short of war—has not stopped; skepticism about the depth of Washington's commitment is rising, observers in the region say, at a time when multiple conflicts are testing America's bandwidth.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, Derek Grossman, a security analyst at the RAND Corp. think tank, said interlocutors in the Philippines were questioning the U.S.'s commitment to defend Manila's de facto territories in the Spratlys, after the long-time American ally lost ground to Beijing in the previous decades and had to watch as China built now fully militarized artificial islands in the area.
The Philippines is "very pro-U.S.," Grossman wrote on Tuesday. But memories of U.S. inaction when, in 2012, Chinese forces wrested Scarborough Shoal from Manila's control remain "an anti-U.S. trigger," he said.
In 2014, the Obama administration brought the disputed Senkaku Islands within the scope of Washington's security treaty with Tokyo. Manila, however, had to wait five more years until the Trump administration publicly committed American power toward the defense of Philippine-held territories in the South China Sea—"a betrayal," Grossman said.
Reached by email, the State Department and INDOPACOM referred Newsweek to previous government statements.
China asserts ownership over the territories and maritime zones of nearly the entirety of the energy-rich South China Sea, challenging some half a dozen neighboring states in the process. Beijing appears to have the wherewithal to tirelessly probe the defenses of major claimants including the Philippines and Vietnam.
The U.S., meanwhile, has in recent years stepped up warnings about the implications of acquiescing to Chinese control of local sea lines—critical maritime trade routes that carry an estimated one-third of global shipping.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Wednesday that the U.S.-Philippines patrols "should not harm China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights."
China's immediate aim is to prevent the Philippines from resupplying and repairing the BRP Sierra Madre—a rusty Philippine Navy warship grounded at Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 for use as an outpost—after which it would "likely move in to establish its own control over the reef," said Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, D.C.
"In the long term, it hopes to use non-military pressure to convince the Philippines and all the other claimants that resistance is futile and they should acknowledge China's claimed historic rights to all of the South China Sea," Poling told Newsweek.
China's gray zone moves against the U.S. ally were not aimed at testing America's resolve, Poling said. Beijing "doesn't have any better ideas," he said, arguing that its tactics were backfiring and pushing the Philippines—and others—closer to the United States.
Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at Taiwan's top military think tank, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told Newsweek that Beijing had identified U.S.-skeptic elements in Manila as a potential vulnerability in what has become a "ring of containment" against China—led by the U.S. and featuring South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.
The Chinese navy's submarines operate frequently in the depths of the South China Sea, Su said. "The People's Liberation Army's activities not only test the bottom line of the U.S. military, but also use the U.S. military's presence to 'train' the PLA and protect the movements of its underwater fleet."
"It's like killing three birds with one stone," he said.
The exercise, which runs through Thursday, involves the Philippine Air Force and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). It is taking place in the "West Philippine Sea," Manila's name for the portion of the South China Sea that falls within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, where Beijing has been actively asserting its claim to contested islands, reefs and atolls in the Spratly Islands archipelago.
In a recent visit to Hawaii, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued one of his strongest rebukes yet of China's "persistent unlawful threats and challenges against Philippine sovereign rights and jurisdictions." In his 17 months in office, Marcos' government has filed dozens, if not hundreds, of diplomatic protests with Beijing over the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia's harassment of Filipino fishermen and coast guard vessels.
In at least half a dozen run-ins around Manila-held Second Thomas Shoal since August, the Philippines has accused Chinese ships of unleashing water cannons, setting up barriers and blockades, and ramming. In February, a Philippine Coast Guard crew was said to have been temporarily blinded by a Chinese coast guard ship's "military-grade laser."
Each of the incidents drew a strongly worded response from the U.S. State Department and last month from the U.S. president himself. Joe Biden reaffirmed the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951 and pledged to respond militarily against any attack on Filipino servicemembers, including in the South China Sea.
But the constant Chinese pressure in the "gray zone"—actions that short of war—has not stopped; skepticism about the depth of Washington's commitment is rising, observers in the region say, at a time when multiple conflicts are testing America's bandwidth.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, Derek Grossman, a security analyst at the RAND Corp. think tank, said interlocutors in the Philippines were questioning the U.S.'s commitment to defend Manila's de facto territories in the Spratlys, after the long-time American ally lost ground to Beijing in the previous decades and had to watch as China built now fully militarized artificial islands in the area.
The Philippines is "very pro-U.S.," Grossman wrote on Tuesday. But memories of U.S. inaction when, in 2012, Chinese forces wrested Scarborough Shoal from Manila's control remain "an anti-U.S. trigger," he said.
In 2014, the Obama administration brought the disputed Senkaku Islands within the scope of Washington's security treaty with Tokyo. Manila, however, had to wait five more years until the Trump administration publicly committed American power toward the defense of Philippine-held territories in the South China Sea—"a betrayal," Grossman said.
Reached by email, the State Department and INDOPACOM referred Newsweek to previous government statements.
China asserts ownership over the territories and maritime zones of nearly the entirety of the energy-rich South China Sea, challenging some half a dozen neighboring states in the process. Beijing appears to have the wherewithal to tirelessly probe the defenses of major claimants including the Philippines and Vietnam.
The U.S., meanwhile, has in recent years stepped up warnings about the implications of acquiescing to Chinese control of local sea lines—critical maritime trade routes that carry an estimated one-third of global shipping.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Wednesday that the U.S.-Philippines patrols "should not harm China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights."
China's immediate aim is to prevent the Philippines from resupplying and repairing the BRP Sierra Madre—a rusty Philippine Navy warship grounded at Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 for use as an outpost—after which it would "likely move in to establish its own control over the reef," said Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, D.C.
"In the long term, it hopes to use non-military pressure to convince the Philippines and all the other claimants that resistance is futile and they should acknowledge China's claimed historic rights to all of the South China Sea," Poling told Newsweek.
China's gray zone moves against the U.S. ally were not aimed at testing America's resolve, Poling said. Beijing "doesn't have any better ideas," he said, arguing that its tactics were backfiring and pushing the Philippines—and others—closer to the United States.
Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at Taiwan's top military think tank, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told Newsweek that Beijing had identified U.S.-skeptic elements in Manila as a potential vulnerability in what has become a "ring of containment" against China—led by the U.S. and featuring South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.
The Chinese navy's submarines operate frequently in the depths of the South China Sea, Su said. "The People's Liberation Army's activities not only test the bottom line of the U.S. military, but also use the U.S. military's presence to 'train' the PLA and protect the movements of its underwater fleet."
"It's like killing three birds with one stone," he said.
Last edited by havoc; 22nd Nov 2023 at 15:06. Reason: corrected sentence that was cut off
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Pacific shift: US to build a ‘missile wall’ against China
US general confirms plan to deploy long- and intermediate-range missiles to the Pacific in 2024.
Japan is the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles.
The US is closer to deploying long-range land-based missiles to deter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a provocative move that could spark a destabilizing conventional missile arms race in the Pacific.
General Charles Flynn, Commander of US Army Forces Pacific, stated at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, that the US will deploy new intermediate-range missiles including Tomahawks and SM-6s to the Pacific region in 2024, Defense One reported.
The deployment was made possible by the US’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 due to Russia’s alleged non-compliance. The Defense One report says the US Army’s Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), which can hit targets over 500 kilometers away, may also be deployed to the region.
In his address, Flynn emphasized the rapid advancement of China’s military capabilities, which he said was endangering regional and global stability.
While the general avoided speculation about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, he outlined several factors believed to be influencing Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s strategic decisions. Those include the impact of economic sanctions, efforts to weaken US alliances in the region, assessing the readiness of China’s military for a potential invasion and the effectiveness of China’s information and influence operations.
Defense One notes that the US Army’s deployment of new missiles signifies a strategic shift in the Pacific, reflecting growing concerns over China’s military expansion and assertive behavior in the region. It also indicates a broader geopolitical strategy to maintain stability and deter potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.
In July 2023, Asia Times reported that the US Marine Corps (USMC) had unveiled its Long-Range Fires Launcher, an uncrewed 4×4 launch vehicle based on the Remotely Operated Ground Unit for Expeditionary-Fires (ROGUE-Fires) vehicle for the land-based Tomahawk cruise missile. The Long-Range Fires Launcher may address a mobility gap associated with the truck-towed OpFires and Typhon, which cannot fit in a C-130 cargo plane.
In December 2022, Asia Times reported on the US Army’s acquisition of the first Typhon land-based missile launcher, which is designed to fill a gap between the US Army’s PrSM and the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) by firing Standard SM-6 or Tomahawk missiles between 500 and 1,800 kilometers.
Furthermore, Asia Times reported in July 2022 that the USMC is acquiring land-based Tomahawk missiles as part of its Long-Range Fires program, which aims to provide integrated ground-based anti-ship and land-attack weapon systems.
The acquisition is part of the USMC’s dispersed operations doctrine, which employs small, dispersed land and sea detachments to threaten adversary forces’ concentration. However, Asia Times has previously noted that US allies such as Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Australia and Japan may be reluctant to participate in America’s “missile wall” strategy.
Thailand’s political elites are trying to establish stronger ties with China and are famously reluctant to strategically peeve Beijing. The Philippines is vulnerable to a Chinese naval blockade cutting off US resupply and reinforcement from Guam and has minimal air and missile defense capabilities.
South Korea is susceptible to Chinese pressure, as it needs China’s markets and influence at the negotiating table with North Korea. Australia’s distance from China and reluctance to get involved in a US-China conflict over Taiwan may preclude it as a basing option for US land-based missiles.
That makes Japan the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles, as it lacks the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of other US partners, apart from a longstanding reluctance to host offensive weapons systems as part of its pacifist post-World War II policy.
But that policy is changing as Japan slowly builds an arsenal of long-range missiles for counterstrike capabilities to deter China and North Korea.
Despite accelerated efforts to establish such capabilities, Japan faces significant challenges such as limited long-range targeting capabilities, high production costs, aging technology and a poor record of storing munitions. Japan may thus seek to address these capability gaps with US-supplied land-based missiles while it gets its indigenous arsenal up to speed.
At the same time, China is building its conventional missile arsenal to counter perceived US containment. China Power notes that since 2000 the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed its missile forces from short-range, modestly accurate systems to the world’s most extensive and diverse array of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles.
China Power says that this arsenal includes intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) like the Dong Feng-26 (DF-26) with ranges of up to 4,000 kilometers, capable of striking crucial US military bases in Guam and ships at sea, and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) like the DF-21D, known as the “carrier killer” with a range of 1,550 kilometers.
The China Power report notes that China’s strategy has shifted toward using these missiles for deterrence and warfighting with a focus on precision strikes and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities along its maritime periphery. It mentions that these deployments include anti-ship missiles to prevent US military interventions and conventional missiles for targeting key enemy installations.
US general confirms plan to deploy long- and intermediate-range missiles to the Pacific in 2024.
Japan is the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles.
The US is closer to deploying long-range land-based missiles to deter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a provocative move that could spark a destabilizing conventional missile arms race in the Pacific.
General Charles Flynn, Commander of US Army Forces Pacific, stated at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, that the US will deploy new intermediate-range missiles including Tomahawks and SM-6s to the Pacific region in 2024, Defense One reported.
The deployment was made possible by the US’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 due to Russia’s alleged non-compliance. The Defense One report says the US Army’s Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), which can hit targets over 500 kilometers away, may also be deployed to the region.
In his address, Flynn emphasized the rapid advancement of China’s military capabilities, which he said was endangering regional and global stability.
While the general avoided speculation about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, he outlined several factors believed to be influencing Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s strategic decisions. Those include the impact of economic sanctions, efforts to weaken US alliances in the region, assessing the readiness of China’s military for a potential invasion and the effectiveness of China’s information and influence operations.
Defense One notes that the US Army’s deployment of new missiles signifies a strategic shift in the Pacific, reflecting growing concerns over China’s military expansion and assertive behavior in the region. It also indicates a broader geopolitical strategy to maintain stability and deter potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.
In July 2023, Asia Times reported that the US Marine Corps (USMC) had unveiled its Long-Range Fires Launcher, an uncrewed 4×4 launch vehicle based on the Remotely Operated Ground Unit for Expeditionary-Fires (ROGUE-Fires) vehicle for the land-based Tomahawk cruise missile. The Long-Range Fires Launcher may address a mobility gap associated with the truck-towed OpFires and Typhon, which cannot fit in a C-130 cargo plane.
In December 2022, Asia Times reported on the US Army’s acquisition of the first Typhon land-based missile launcher, which is designed to fill a gap between the US Army’s PrSM and the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) by firing Standard SM-6 or Tomahawk missiles between 500 and 1,800 kilometers.
Furthermore, Asia Times reported in July 2022 that the USMC is acquiring land-based Tomahawk missiles as part of its Long-Range Fires program, which aims to provide integrated ground-based anti-ship and land-attack weapon systems.
The acquisition is part of the USMC’s dispersed operations doctrine, which employs small, dispersed land and sea detachments to threaten adversary forces’ concentration. However, Asia Times has previously noted that US allies such as Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Australia and Japan may be reluctant to participate in America’s “missile wall” strategy.
Thailand’s political elites are trying to establish stronger ties with China and are famously reluctant to strategically peeve Beijing. The Philippines is vulnerable to a Chinese naval blockade cutting off US resupply and reinforcement from Guam and has minimal air and missile defense capabilities.
South Korea is susceptible to Chinese pressure, as it needs China’s markets and influence at the negotiating table with North Korea. Australia’s distance from China and reluctance to get involved in a US-China conflict over Taiwan may preclude it as a basing option for US land-based missiles.
That makes Japan the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles, as it lacks the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of other US partners, apart from a longstanding reluctance to host offensive weapons systems as part of its pacifist post-World War II policy.
But that policy is changing as Japan slowly builds an arsenal of long-range missiles for counterstrike capabilities to deter China and North Korea.
Despite accelerated efforts to establish such capabilities, Japan faces significant challenges such as limited long-range targeting capabilities, high production costs, aging technology and a poor record of storing munitions. Japan may thus seek to address these capability gaps with US-supplied land-based missiles while it gets its indigenous arsenal up to speed.
At the same time, China is building its conventional missile arsenal to counter perceived US containment. China Power notes that since 2000 the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed its missile forces from short-range, modestly accurate systems to the world’s most extensive and diverse array of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles.
China Power says that this arsenal includes intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) like the Dong Feng-26 (DF-26) with ranges of up to 4,000 kilometers, capable of striking crucial US military bases in Guam and ships at sea, and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) like the DF-21D, known as the “carrier killer” with a range of 1,550 kilometers.
The China Power report notes that China’s strategy has shifted toward using these missiles for deterrence and warfighting with a focus on precision strikes and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities along its maritime periphery. It mentions that these deployments include anti-ship missiles to prevent US military interventions and conventional missiles for targeting key enemy installations.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
H I Sutton - Covert Shores
China's Massive Yulin Naval Base In South China Sea Getting Even Bigger
China’s main naval base in the South China Sea continues to grow. Additional quays will almost double the size of the Sanya side of Yulin naval base. A new quay has been built on the western shore of Yulin Harbor, outside the historic inner harbor. This may indicate that the base will play an increasing role in the basing of uncrewed platforms.
Construction was started in 2022 and is already substantially complete. This first quay (technically a marginal wharf, built on pilings and parallel to the shore), on the west side of the harbor is 500 meters (1,640 feet) long. This is the one which, intuitively, may be the home base of uncrewed vessels in the future. China has been developing extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicles(XLUUVs). These have already been tested at Yulin. Until now they have simply used existing quays, with equipment camped out in temporary shelters.
China also has multiple uncrewed surface vessel (USV) projects, including large ones which will need berthing like ordinary ships. As these uncrewed platforms approach operational status they will need base facilities, so some construction was expected.
Opposite the first new quay, and adjacent to the massive dry docks which are themselves still new, is another. This totals around 1,020 meters (3,350 feet) in length. Its proximity to the dry dock suggests it may principally relate to that. On the other side of the dry dock is another area of land reclamation, possibly the start of yet another quay or pier.
To the east, in the next bay in an area known as Longpo naval base (part of the wider Yulin Naval base together with Sanya), two additional submarine piers have been built. These have been relatively well documented.
China's Massive Yulin Naval Base In South China Sea Getting Even Bigger
China’s main naval base in the South China Sea continues to grow. Additional quays will almost double the size of the Sanya side of Yulin naval base. A new quay has been built on the western shore of Yulin Harbor, outside the historic inner harbor. This may indicate that the base will play an increasing role in the basing of uncrewed platforms.
Construction was started in 2022 and is already substantially complete. This first quay (technically a marginal wharf, built on pilings and parallel to the shore), on the west side of the harbor is 500 meters (1,640 feet) long. This is the one which, intuitively, may be the home base of uncrewed vessels in the future. China has been developing extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicles(XLUUVs). These have already been tested at Yulin. Until now they have simply used existing quays, with equipment camped out in temporary shelters.
China also has multiple uncrewed surface vessel (USV) projects, including large ones which will need berthing like ordinary ships. As these uncrewed platforms approach operational status they will need base facilities, so some construction was expected.
Opposite the first new quay, and adjacent to the massive dry docks which are themselves still new, is another. This totals around 1,020 meters (3,350 feet) in length. Its proximity to the dry dock suggests it may principally relate to that. On the other side of the dry dock is another area of land reclamation, possibly the start of yet another quay or pier.
To the east, in the next bay in an area known as Longpo naval base (part of the wider Yulin Naval base together with Sanya), two additional submarine piers have been built. These have been relatively well documented.
Pacific shift: US to build a ‘missile wall’ against China
US general confirms plan to deploy long- and intermediate-range missiles to the Pacific in 2024.
Japan is the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles.
The US is closer to deploying long-range land-based missiles to deter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a provocative move that could spark a destabilizing conventional missile arms race in the Pacific.
General Charles Flynn, Commander of US Army Forces Pacific, stated at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, that the US will deploy new intermediate-range missiles including Tomahawks and SM-6s to the Pacific region in 2024, Defense One reported.
The deployment was made possible by the US’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 due to Russia’s alleged non-compliance. The Defense One report says the US Army’s Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), which can hit targets over 500 kilometers away, may also be deployed to the region.
In his address, Flynn emphasized the rapid advancement of China’s military capabilities, which he said was endangering regional and global stability.
While the general avoided speculation about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, he outlined several factors believed to be influencing Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s strategic decisions. Those include the impact of economic sanctions, efforts to weaken US alliances in the region, assessing the readiness of China’s military for a potential invasion and the effectiveness of China’s information and influence operations.
Defense One notes that the US Army’s deployment of new missiles signifies a strategic shift in the Pacific, reflecting growing concerns over China’s military expansion and assertive behavior in the region. It also indicates a broader geopolitical strategy to maintain stability and deter potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.
In July 2023, Asia Times reported that the US Marine Corps (USMC) had unveiled its Long-Range Fires Launcher, an uncrewed 4×4 launch vehicle based on the Remotely Operated Ground Unit for Expeditionary-Fires (ROGUE-Fires) vehicle for the land-based Tomahawk cruise missile. The Long-Range Fires Launcher may address a mobility gap associated with the truck-towed OpFires and Typhon, which cannot fit in a C-130 cargo plane.
In December 2022, Asia Times reported on the US Army’s acquisition of the first Typhon land-based missile launcher, which is designed to fill a gap between the US Army’s PrSM and the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) by firing Standard SM-6 or Tomahawk missiles between 500 and 1,800 kilometers.
Furthermore, Asia Times reported in July 2022 that the USMC is acquiring land-based Tomahawk missiles as part of its Long-Range Fires program, which aims to provide integrated ground-based anti-ship and land-attack weapon systems.
The acquisition is part of the USMC’s dispersed operations doctrine, which employs small, dispersed land and sea detachments to threaten adversary forces’ concentration. However, Asia Times has previously noted that US allies such as Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Australia and Japan may be reluctant to participate in America’s “missile wall” strategy.
Thailand’s political elites are trying to establish stronger ties with China and are famously reluctant to strategically peeve Beijing. The Philippines is vulnerable to a Chinese naval blockade cutting off US resupply and reinforcement from Guam and has minimal air and missile defense capabilities.
South Korea is susceptible to Chinese pressure, as it needs China’s markets and influence at the negotiating table with North Korea. Australia’s distance from China and reluctance to get involved in a US-China conflict over Taiwan may preclude it as a basing option for US land-based missiles.
That makes Japan the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles, as it lacks the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of other US partners, apart from a longstanding reluctance to host offensive weapons systems as part of its pacifist post-World War II policy.
But that policy is changing as Japan slowly builds an arsenal of long-range missiles for counterstrike capabilities to deter China and North Korea.
Despite accelerated efforts to establish such capabilities, Japan faces significant challenges such as limited long-range targeting capabilities, high production costs, aging technology and a poor record of storing munitions. Japan may thus seek to address these capability gaps with US-supplied land-based missiles while it gets its indigenous arsenal up to speed.
At the same time, China is building its conventional missile arsenal to counter perceived US containment. China Power notes that since 2000 the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed its missile forces from short-range, modestly accurate systems to the world’s most extensive and diverse array of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles.
China Power says that this arsenal includes intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) like the Dong Feng-26 (DF-26) with ranges of up to 4,000 kilometers, capable of striking crucial US military bases in Guam and ships at sea, and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) like the DF-21D, known as the “carrier killer” with a range of 1,550 kilometers.
The China Power report notes that China’s strategy has shifted toward using these missiles for deterrence and warfighting with a focus on precision strikes and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities along its maritime periphery. It mentions that these deployments include anti-ship missiles to prevent US military interventions and conventional missiles for targeting key enemy installations.
US general confirms plan to deploy long- and intermediate-range missiles to the Pacific in 2024.
Japan is the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles.
The US is closer to deploying long-range land-based missiles to deter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a provocative move that could spark a destabilizing conventional missile arms race in the Pacific.
General Charles Flynn, Commander of US Army Forces Pacific, stated at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, that the US will deploy new intermediate-range missiles including Tomahawks and SM-6s to the Pacific region in 2024, Defense One reported.
The deployment was made possible by the US’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 due to Russia’s alleged non-compliance. The Defense One report says the US Army’s Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), which can hit targets over 500 kilometers away, may also be deployed to the region.
In his address, Flynn emphasized the rapid advancement of China’s military capabilities, which he said was endangering regional and global stability.
While the general avoided speculation about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, he outlined several factors believed to be influencing Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s strategic decisions. Those include the impact of economic sanctions, efforts to weaken US alliances in the region, assessing the readiness of China’s military for a potential invasion and the effectiveness of China’s information and influence operations.
Defense One notes that the US Army’s deployment of new missiles signifies a strategic shift in the Pacific, reflecting growing concerns over China’s military expansion and assertive behavior in the region. It also indicates a broader geopolitical strategy to maintain stability and deter potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.
In July 2023, Asia Times reported that the US Marine Corps (USMC) had unveiled its Long-Range Fires Launcher, an uncrewed 4×4 launch vehicle based on the Remotely Operated Ground Unit for Expeditionary-Fires (ROGUE-Fires) vehicle for the land-based Tomahawk cruise missile. The Long-Range Fires Launcher may address a mobility gap associated with the truck-towed OpFires and Typhon, which cannot fit in a C-130 cargo plane.
In December 2022, Asia Times reported on the US Army’s acquisition of the first Typhon land-based missile launcher, which is designed to fill a gap between the US Army’s PrSM and the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) by firing Standard SM-6 or Tomahawk missiles between 500 and 1,800 kilometers.
Furthermore, Asia Times reported in July 2022 that the USMC is acquiring land-based Tomahawk missiles as part of its Long-Range Fires program, which aims to provide integrated ground-based anti-ship and land-attack weapon systems.
The acquisition is part of the USMC’s dispersed operations doctrine, which employs small, dispersed land and sea detachments to threaten adversary forces’ concentration. However, Asia Times has previously noted that US allies such as Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Australia and Japan may be reluctant to participate in America’s “missile wall” strategy.
Thailand’s political elites are trying to establish stronger ties with China and are famously reluctant to strategically peeve Beijing. The Philippines is vulnerable to a Chinese naval blockade cutting off US resupply and reinforcement from Guam and has minimal air and missile defense capabilities.
South Korea is susceptible to Chinese pressure, as it needs China’s markets and influence at the negotiating table with North Korea. Australia’s distance from China and reluctance to get involved in a US-China conflict over Taiwan may preclude it as a basing option for US land-based missiles.
That makes Japan the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles, as it lacks the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of other US partners, apart from a longstanding reluctance to host offensive weapons systems as part of its pacifist post-World War II policy.
But that policy is changing as Japan slowly builds an arsenal of long-range missiles for counterstrike capabilities to deter China and North Korea.
Despite accelerated efforts to establish such capabilities, Japan faces significant challenges such as limited long-range targeting capabilities, high production costs, aging technology and a poor record of storing munitions. Japan may thus seek to address these capability gaps with US-supplied land-based missiles while it gets its indigenous arsenal up to speed.
At the same time, China is building its conventional missile arsenal to counter perceived US containment. China Power notes that since 2000 the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed its missile forces from short-range, modestly accurate systems to the world’s most extensive and diverse array of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles.
China Power says that this arsenal includes intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) like the Dong Feng-26 (DF-26) with ranges of up to 4,000 kilometers, capable of striking crucial US military bases in Guam and ships at sea, and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) like the DF-21D, known as the “carrier killer” with a range of 1,550 kilometers.
The China Power report notes that China’s strategy has shifted toward using these missiles for deterrence and warfighting with a focus on precision strikes and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities along its maritime periphery. It mentions that these deployments include anti-ship missiles to prevent US military interventions and conventional missiles for targeting key enemy installations.
Not hardly.
It is if anything, (1) an attempt at a deterrent, and (2) a distributed defense in depth ... but it relies on a proposed coalition that may not want to play as a cohesive whole.
Thailand is one of China's neighbors, for example, and whatever the US does or does not see as important, Thailand has to live in this neighborhood.
Go back to the Protests in the 70s and 80s over US medium range surface to surface missiles in Europe, and the political friction in that coalition.
That's the far better analogy.
It is if anything, (1) an attempt at a deterrent, and (2) a distributed defense in depth ... but it relies on a proposed coalition that may not want to play as a cohesive whole.
Thailand is one of China's neighbors, for example, and whatever the US does or does not see as important, Thailand has to live in this neighborhood.
Go back to the Protests in the 70s and 80s over US medium range surface to surface missiles in Europe, and the political friction in that coalition.
That's the far better analogy.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...-tour-in-2024/
German air force plans major Asia-Pacific tour in 2024
COLOGNE, Germany — The German air force is planning an exercise tour through the Asia-Pacific region in 2024, accompanied by aircraft from France and Spain, the partners in the trinational Future Combat Air System, according to defense officials.
The weekslong deployment next summer, which also involves at least one German navy ship, follows Berlin’s logic that Germany must help stabilize an economically important region as China looks to growits influence….
Next year’s deployment of aircraft will be “much, much bigger” than the air force’s initial foray to the Asia-Pacific region in 2022, service chief Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz said in an interview…
The upcoming trip will take the opposite direction, flying across the north Atlantic to Alaska for a first stop. According to Gerhartz, the idea is to show up in the region with a “European face,” consisting of the three FCAS partner nations and possibly also involving aircraft from the U.K. and Italy along the way.…
As of last month, the following contingent of European warplanes was set to partake in various drill elements during the summer: eight German and four Spanish Eurofighters, 12 German Tornados, six French Rafales, four German and four French-Spanish A400Ms, and four German and three French A330s, according to a Luftwaffe briefing slide.
Parts of the formation will aim to participate in the Hawaii-based Rim of the Pacific, or RIMPAC, exercise in late July, following a pit stop in Japan for a few days of what the German air service dubs “local flying” with Japanese crews there, the slide states. While in Hawaii, the German air force aims to rendezvous with a Germany Navy frigate, the plan goes.
Next on the calendar is exercise Pitch Black in Australia in late July, followed by a stop either in Indonesia or Malaysia before ending the deployment in India, a country defense and foreign policy leaders in Berlin have been eying as a particular anchor in the region.
In India, the European contingent will aim to partake in the country’s international Tarang Shakti exercise, if the timing works out, or perform “local flying” activities outside of that drill, according to the Luftwaffe.
German air force plans major Asia-Pacific tour in 2024
COLOGNE, Germany — The German air force is planning an exercise tour through the Asia-Pacific region in 2024, accompanied by aircraft from France and Spain, the partners in the trinational Future Combat Air System, according to defense officials.
The weekslong deployment next summer, which also involves at least one German navy ship, follows Berlin’s logic that Germany must help stabilize an economically important region as China looks to growits influence….
Next year’s deployment of aircraft will be “much, much bigger” than the air force’s initial foray to the Asia-Pacific region in 2022, service chief Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz said in an interview…
The upcoming trip will take the opposite direction, flying across the north Atlantic to Alaska for a first stop. According to Gerhartz, the idea is to show up in the region with a “European face,” consisting of the three FCAS partner nations and possibly also involving aircraft from the U.K. and Italy along the way.…
As of last month, the following contingent of European warplanes was set to partake in various drill elements during the summer: eight German and four Spanish Eurofighters, 12 German Tornados, six French Rafales, four German and four French-Spanish A400Ms, and four German and three French A330s, according to a Luftwaffe briefing slide.
Parts of the formation will aim to participate in the Hawaii-based Rim of the Pacific, or RIMPAC, exercise in late July, following a pit stop in Japan for a few days of what the German air service dubs “local flying” with Japanese crews there, the slide states. While in Hawaii, the German air force aims to rendezvous with a Germany Navy frigate, the plan goes.
Next on the calendar is exercise Pitch Black in Australia in late July, followed by a stop either in Indonesia or Malaysia before ending the deployment in India, a country defense and foreign policy leaders in Berlin have been eying as a particular anchor in the region.
In India, the European contingent will aim to partake in the country’s international Tarang Shakti exercise, if the timing works out, or perform “local flying” activities outside of that drill, according to the Luftwaffe.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...-tour-in-2024/
German air force plans major Asia-Pacific tour in 2024
COLOGNE, Germany — The German air force is planning an exercise tour through the Asia-Pacific region in 2024, accompanied by aircraft from France and Spain, the partners in the trinational Future Combat Air System, according to defense officials.
The weekslong deployment next summer, which also involves at least one German navy ship, follows Berlin’s logic that Germany must help stabilize an economically important region as China looks to growits influence….
Next year’s deployment of aircraft will be “much, much bigger” than the air force’s initial foray to the Asia-Pacific region in 2022, service chief Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz said in an interview…
The upcoming trip will take the opposite direction, flying across the north Atlantic to Alaska for a first stop. According to Gerhartz, the idea is to show up in the region with a “European face,” consisting of the three FCAS partner nations and possibly also involving aircraft from the U.K. and Italy along the way.…
As of last month, the following contingent of European warplanes was set to partake in various drill elements during the summer: eight German and four Spanish Eurofighters, 12 German Tornados, six French Rafales, four German and four French-SpanishA400Ms, and four German and threeA330s, according to a Luftwaffe briefing slide.
Parts of the formation will aim to participate in the Hawaii-based Rim of the Pacific, or RIMPAC, exercise in late July, following a pit stop in Japan for a few days of what the German air service dubs “local flying” with Japanese crews there, the slide states. While in Hawaii, the German air force aims to rendezvous with a Germany Navy frigate, the plan goes.
Next on the calendar is exercise Pitch Black in Australia in late July, followed by a stop either in Indonesia or Malaysia before ending the deployment in India, a country defense and foreign policy leaders in Berlin have been eying as a particular anchor in the region.
In India, the European contingent will aim to partake in the country’s international Tarang Shakti exercise, if the timing works out, or perform “local flying” activities outside of that drill, according to the Luftwaffe.
German air force plans major Asia-Pacific tour in 2024
COLOGNE, Germany — The German air force is planning an exercise tour through the Asia-Pacific region in 2024, accompanied by aircraft from France and Spain, the partners in the trinational Future Combat Air System, according to defense officials.
The weekslong deployment next summer, which also involves at least one German navy ship, follows Berlin’s logic that Germany must help stabilize an economically important region as China looks to growits influence….
Next year’s deployment of aircraft will be “much, much bigger” than the air force’s initial foray to the Asia-Pacific region in 2022, service chief Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz said in an interview…
The upcoming trip will take the opposite direction, flying across the north Atlantic to Alaska for a first stop. According to Gerhartz, the idea is to show up in the region with a “European face,” consisting of the three FCAS partner nations and possibly also involving aircraft from the U.K. and Italy along the way.…
As of last month, the following contingent of European warplanes was set to partake in various drill elements during the summer: eight German and four Spanish Eurofighters, 12 German Tornados, six French Rafales, four German and four French-SpanishA400Ms, and four German and threeA330s, according to a Luftwaffe briefing slide.
Parts of the formation will aim to participate in the Hawaii-based Rim of the Pacific, or RIMPAC, exercise in late July, following a pit stop in Japan for a few days of what the German air service dubs “local flying” with Japanese crews there, the slide states. While in Hawaii, the German air force aims to rendezvous with a Germany Navy frigate, the plan goes.
Next on the calendar is exercise Pitch Black in Australia in late July, followed by a stop either in Indonesia or Malaysia before ending the deployment in India, a country defense and foreign policy leaders in Berlin have been eying as a particular anchor in the region.
In India, the European contingent will aim to partake in the country’s international Tarang Shakti exercise, if the timing works out, or perform “local flying” activities outside of that drill, according to the Luftwaffe.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
China’s new stealth sub built for a Taiwan blockade
China’s Type-039C submarine features new angled sail design to reduce active sonar detectability in Taiwan Strait’s shallow waters.
China’s Type 039C Yuan-class submarine appears to mark a new era in underwater stealth technology, posing significant challenges to traditional detection tools as speculation mounts about a possible submarine-led Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Naval News reported that the Type 039C Yuan-class submarine features an angled sail design to reduce its active sonar detectability, making it the world’s first known submarine with the feature… China’s mass production capability has made the Yuan-class the most numerous air-independent propulsion (AIP) submarine worldwide.
The use of angled stealth shaping is gaining momentum worldwide, with the upcoming Swedish A-26-class and Germany’s Type-212CD-class incorporating similar features, with the latter even encasing the whole submarine in an angled outer hull. The trend is being driven largely by the mainstream shift from using passive to active sonar, where passive detection is less effective as submarines are increasingly built to be quieter.
Naval News says that active sonar, which involves emitting a sonar signal and measuring the rebounds, is gaining in use while passive sonar, which listens for sounds emitted by a submarine, is proving less effective. The report notes that the stealth features on the Type 039C Yuan-class are designed to counter medium frequency sonars and complicate enemy classification of the vessel.
China’s Type 039C appears to represent the latest evolution of its conventional submarine designs and may already have been deployed in military exercises simulating a Taiwan blockade. China’s conventional submarine program has Taiwan in focus, as an invasion would not require nuclear-powered submarines with unlimited range in the nearby theater.
Asia Times reported in August 2022 that the Type 039C, built in Wuhan and fitted out in Shanghai, marks an evolution in conventional submarine technology using 60% newly researched and improved equipment and featuring significant system reconfiguration.
While the Type 039C features AIP technology, the specific propulsion system is unknown. Some have speculated it may employ lithium batteries, which would make strategic sense considering China manufactures three-quarters of the world’s electric vehicle (EV) batteries.
Submarines can significantly enhance their acceleration for high-speed operations and extend their underwater endurance by over two-fold with lithium-ion batteries.
The People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) has been trying to replace traditional lead-acid batteries with lithium-ion ones for over a decade but apparently hesitated due to thermal runaway and fire risks. However, recent advancements such as using low-cost, readily available iron and phosphate can replace the usual but dangerous nickel and cobalt combination while hard carbon and ceramic coating can improve the safety of battery packaging.
The Type 039C submarine may have similar weaponry to its Yuan-class predecessors, including wire-guided torpedoes, naval mines and anti-ship missiles. It may also be capable of launching land-attack cruise missiles from its torpedo tubes.
China may already have deployed the Type 039C in August 2022 military exercises off Taiwan, simulating a submarine blockade against the self-governing island. The Type 039C and other submarines would play a vital role in a future blockade of Taiwan, as the island is believed only to have a 146-day oil stockpile and 11-day natural gas supply.
In a Taiwan blockade, conventional submarines may minimize the risk to PLA-N surface ships and aircraft, and target ships going in and out of Taiwan’s ports. A blockade may force Taiwan to capitulate without sending in an amphibious invasion force and make hiding battle losses and mission failures easier, avoiding a possible domestic backlash in China.
The US and its allies may use a convoy system and engage in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) operations east of Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. In this scenario, China wins if it sinks enough ships until the US and its allies can no longer guarantee safe access to Taiwan’s ports, and the US and its allies win if they can track down and sink a significant number of China’s submarines.
In a November 2021 article for The Warzone, Kevin Noonan notes that the US Navy may not be prepared to face the threat of China’s high-tech conventional submarines. Noonan says that since the end of the Cold War, the US Navy has yet to adapt its ASW capabilities for shallow water operations, potentially providing China an advantage in the Taiwan Strait, which is only 60 meters deep on average.
Furthermore, he says that small conventional submarines generate smaller acoustic signals, making them harder to detect, and that Chinese submarines will be essentially operating in their home waters in the Taiwan Strait, giving them a home-field advantage. He also mentions China’s submariners know how to conceal their submarines in the background noise of civilian commercial shipping, complicating their detection and targeting.
Given those challenges, the Hudson Institute notes in a July 2023 report that the US needs to change its approach to undersea warfare to emphasize uncrewed vessels. That, the report says, would enable the US and allied forces to exploit active sonar and track increasingly stealthy Chinese submarines without risking counter-detection.
China’s Type-039C submarine features new angled sail design to reduce active sonar detectability in Taiwan Strait’s shallow waters.
China’s Type 039C Yuan-class submarine appears to mark a new era in underwater stealth technology, posing significant challenges to traditional detection tools as speculation mounts about a possible submarine-led Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Naval News reported that the Type 039C Yuan-class submarine features an angled sail design to reduce its active sonar detectability, making it the world’s first known submarine with the feature… China’s mass production capability has made the Yuan-class the most numerous air-independent propulsion (AIP) submarine worldwide.
The use of angled stealth shaping is gaining momentum worldwide, with the upcoming Swedish A-26-class and Germany’s Type-212CD-class incorporating similar features, with the latter even encasing the whole submarine in an angled outer hull. The trend is being driven largely by the mainstream shift from using passive to active sonar, where passive detection is less effective as submarines are increasingly built to be quieter.
Naval News says that active sonar, which involves emitting a sonar signal and measuring the rebounds, is gaining in use while passive sonar, which listens for sounds emitted by a submarine, is proving less effective. The report notes that the stealth features on the Type 039C Yuan-class are designed to counter medium frequency sonars and complicate enemy classification of the vessel.
China’s Type 039C appears to represent the latest evolution of its conventional submarine designs and may already have been deployed in military exercises simulating a Taiwan blockade. China’s conventional submarine program has Taiwan in focus, as an invasion would not require nuclear-powered submarines with unlimited range in the nearby theater.
Asia Times reported in August 2022 that the Type 039C, built in Wuhan and fitted out in Shanghai, marks an evolution in conventional submarine technology using 60% newly researched and improved equipment and featuring significant system reconfiguration.
While the Type 039C features AIP technology, the specific propulsion system is unknown. Some have speculated it may employ lithium batteries, which would make strategic sense considering China manufactures three-quarters of the world’s electric vehicle (EV) batteries.
Submarines can significantly enhance their acceleration for high-speed operations and extend their underwater endurance by over two-fold with lithium-ion batteries.
The People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) has been trying to replace traditional lead-acid batteries with lithium-ion ones for over a decade but apparently hesitated due to thermal runaway and fire risks. However, recent advancements such as using low-cost, readily available iron and phosphate can replace the usual but dangerous nickel and cobalt combination while hard carbon and ceramic coating can improve the safety of battery packaging.
The Type 039C submarine may have similar weaponry to its Yuan-class predecessors, including wire-guided torpedoes, naval mines and anti-ship missiles. It may also be capable of launching land-attack cruise missiles from its torpedo tubes.
China may already have deployed the Type 039C in August 2022 military exercises off Taiwan, simulating a submarine blockade against the self-governing island. The Type 039C and other submarines would play a vital role in a future blockade of Taiwan, as the island is believed only to have a 146-day oil stockpile and 11-day natural gas supply.
In a Taiwan blockade, conventional submarines may minimize the risk to PLA-N surface ships and aircraft, and target ships going in and out of Taiwan’s ports. A blockade may force Taiwan to capitulate without sending in an amphibious invasion force and make hiding battle losses and mission failures easier, avoiding a possible domestic backlash in China.
The US and its allies may use a convoy system and engage in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) operations east of Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. In this scenario, China wins if it sinks enough ships until the US and its allies can no longer guarantee safe access to Taiwan’s ports, and the US and its allies win if they can track down and sink a significant number of China’s submarines.
In a November 2021 article for The Warzone, Kevin Noonan notes that the US Navy may not be prepared to face the threat of China’s high-tech conventional submarines. Noonan says that since the end of the Cold War, the US Navy has yet to adapt its ASW capabilities for shallow water operations, potentially providing China an advantage in the Taiwan Strait, which is only 60 meters deep on average.
Furthermore, he says that small conventional submarines generate smaller acoustic signals, making them harder to detect, and that Chinese submarines will be essentially operating in their home waters in the Taiwan Strait, giving them a home-field advantage. He also mentions China’s submariners know how to conceal their submarines in the background noise of civilian commercial shipping, complicating their detection and targeting.
Given those challenges, the Hudson Institute notes in a July 2023 report that the US needs to change its approach to undersea warfare to emphasize uncrewed vessels. That, the report says, would enable the US and allied forces to exploit active sonar and track increasingly stealthy Chinese submarines without risking counter-detection.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
China's PLA Navy new corvette, this is the follow on to the type 56 corvette.
Bigger, stealthy, integrated mast and a new multipurpose VLS system.
Bigger, stealthy, integrated mast and a new multipurpose VLS system.
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Chinas most modern naval vessel, a landing ship is on fire... it looks bad.
https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/stat...51376210104644
Apparently they were having a feast for the ship crews moral and lit a flaming duck dish with high proof alcohol and up went the ship...Flaming duck to dead duck in one.
https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/stat...51376210104644
Apparently they were having a feast for the ship crews moral and lit a flaming duck dish with high proof alcohol and up went the ship...Flaming duck to dead duck in one.