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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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Old 8th Nov 2023, 16:17
  #1881 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Shock , panic horror

Chinese to try and open 6th foreign base

USA has over a thousand
What's good for the goose.... Weird they didn't opt for Yemen (maybe they have as well?) - it would have been a slam-dunk in terms getting support from the locals, also much better in terms of access to the Red Sea.

Personally this feels like something that won't have any impact for decades, given how far behind the Chinese are in terms of establishing anything matching the US's global footprint.
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Old 8th Nov 2023, 16:21
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Originally Posted by rattman
Indopacifc 2023 defence expo is on.

BAE really sharpened their pencil with their modified type-26 -> hunter -> airwarfare destroyer

Proposal is to remove all the ASW hardware and the multi mission bay, install a 64 cell MK-41 VLS and 16 NSM launches (4 * 4) in where the multi mission bay was. You can go up to 128 cell MK-41 if you are willing to lose the gun. The 64 cell VLS should be upgradable to the Mk-57 VLS, that proposed to go on zumwalts when the design is done

Their proposal is 6 hunter for multirole and 3 of these as AWD to join the hobarts
I'd imagine the stability certification of that proposed modification might be described as "interesting"......

I can think of some other similarly interesting certification issues arising from the location of the "new" VLS cells as well.
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Old 9th Nov 2023, 07:52
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"it would have been a slam-dunk in terms getting support from the locals, also much better in terms of access to the Red Sea"

I think any one looking at the history of the Yemen would look elsewhere - it's always in a state of chaos. And, like Afghanistan, the locals aren't terribly keen on each other but they LOATHE outsiders interfering. And for the Red Sea the Chinese also have a base in Djibouti so they have the Red Sea covered. I suspect Oman is more about India than Iran and the straits of Hormuz
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Old 9th Nov 2023, 13:43
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
I suspect Oman is more about India than Iran and the straits of Hormuz
That's what crossed my mind as well.
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Old 10th Nov 2023, 06:45
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Face off in the #SouthChinaSea as #Philippines is sending another resupply mission to Ayunging Shoal & #China deploys a large number of ships to block it.

China's blockading force includes 15 militia ships + 2 back near Mischief Reef + 3 en route. 4 coast guard ships also blocking but not broadcasting AIS are 21551 & 21555. CCG 21556 seen earlier.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...460369468.html
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Old 10th Nov 2023, 06:58
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Chinese military ‘directed’ by Beijing to ‘be increasingly provocative”: Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo

China wants "to create tense, uncomfortable situations in the hope that US and partner forces will vacate the space that every force has a right to be in," Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo said.

The nominee to lead US Indo Pacific Command offered a stark view today of the increasing number of dangerous actions by People’s Liberation Army ships and aircraft since he took over the Pacific Fleet in 2021.

“They are increasingly provocative and it’s deeply concerning,” Adm. Samuel Paparo told a small group of reporters at the Indo Pacific 2023 conference here. “At times, they’ve hazarded themselves, and they’ve hazarded the people that are in the vessels and aircraft they’ve interacted with.”

Asked if the Chinese pilots and ship captains were acting on their own or not, he said, “I believe they’ve been directed to be more aggressive and they have followed those orders.”

Paparo said the PRC is “pressing unlawful claims, with no basis in international law or custom. And they’re operating under the logic of military power.” The China of President Xi Jinping wants “to create tense, uncomfortable situations in the hope that US and partner forces will vacate the space that every force has a right to be in,” he said……
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Old 10th Nov 2023, 07:36
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Chinese Rigid Hull Inflatable Boats harass, through unsafe/unprofessional maneuvers, the Philippines’ Motor Launch Kalayaan on a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal at around 7:30 this morning.
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Old 11th Nov 2023, 05:46
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India’s Growing Involvement in the South China Sea Disputes

New Delhi has been offering military aid and more supportive rhetoric to China’s rival claimants, but there are clear limits to its involvement in the disputes.

India’s increasing involvement in the South China Sea under Prime Minister Narendra Modi – including India’s offer to provide helicopters to the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) amidst the rising tensions between Manila and Beijing – has raised China’s concerns…..
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Old 11th Nov 2023, 06:19
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US and India to co-produce Striker armored vehicles to counter #China

The announcement, made by a senior US defense official, came during the annual 2+2 ministerial consultations being held between the countries’ foreign and defense ministers in New Delhi.

The initiative “will strengthen the shared security of our countries by diversifying supply chains and supporting interoperability between our militaries,” US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Friday in New Delhi.

The vehicles will help India push back against China along their disputed border, while also reducing New Delhi’s long-term dependence on Russian weapons.

The announcement comes as part of a multi-year effort to strengthen US-India ties through intelligence sharing, technology transfer and bolstered diplomatic ties. It also helps Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid to expand India’s industrial base.

An Indian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the majority of the vehicles will be deployed along India’s border with China, where tensions have remained high after a clash in 2020 that killed soldiers on both sides. Some of the vehicles will also be deployed along India’s border with Pakistan.

New Delhi is seeking thousands of co-produced vehicles, most of which will be armed with anti-tank missile systems. The rest will be used for battlefield surveillance or as command vehicles, the official said.

The Stryker, a wheeled combat vehicle produced by General Dynamics Land Systems Inc., is prized by the US Army for its versatility. There are more than two dozen variants, which serve as infantry carriers, reconnaissance platforms, medical and engineering support, among other missions.

The US Army, in recent years, has added a 30mm cannon to the vehicle and worked to integrate directed energy weapons on the Strykers for short-range air defense.

The Biden administration has sent Strykers to Ukraine to aid its defense against Russia, in addition to Bradley fighting vehicles and Abrams tanks.

In June, during a state visit by Modi to Washington, the two countries pledged to deepen defense-industry ties, including technologies for intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance, as well as aircraft engines and munitions.

As part of that push, the countries are working to streamline regulations, licensing and export controls, and to deepen ties between defense companies.

The US and India also plan to conduct more joint exercises across combatant commands and regions, according to a senior US defense official.


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Old 12th Nov 2023, 07:38
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Obviously tourists who got lost….

Taiwan media broke the news that the CCP sent its corps of engineers from Egypt into Gaza to help Hamas build the tunnel network. After Israel attacked Gaza, Hamas refused to release the CCP engineers.



​​​​​​​Exclusive: #CCP Military Experts on #TunnelWarfare Hide and Trapped in #Gaza

According to disclosures by Chinese YouTuber Professor Liu Zheng, several #Chinese #military experts on tunnel warfare are hidden within #Hamas's tunnels. These experts have advised that tunnel entrances and rocket launch sites be placed in schools, hospitals, and churches, using civilians as human shields in hopes of evading #Israeli artillery fire.

As the Israeli military tightens its siege and offensive on #Gaza, these military advisors and tunnel warfare specialists, desperate to survive, have repeatedly requested to leave Gaza and enter #Egypt under the guise of foreign tourists.

However, to their surprise, the senior leadership of Hamas will not let them leave. The #CCP has had to send two delegations of envoys to #Doha and #Qatar to negotiate with the Hamas leadership the conditions for the withdrawal of Chinese military advisors and technical experts from Gaza.
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Old 12th Nov 2023, 20:20
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Might be nice if the USN sent one of their `boats` to run a few rings around the Chinese cutters,pop the looking glass up and say `Hello,we`re here to help`....
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Old 12th Nov 2023, 23:34
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Originally Posted by ORAC
US and India to co-produce Striker armored vehicles to counter #China

The announcement, made by a senior US defense official, came during the annual 2+2 ministerial consultations being held between the countries’ foreign and defense ministers in New Delhi.




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Wonder if they discussed that with canada, pretty sure they would tell india to **** off
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Old 13th Nov 2023, 08:01
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Long special in this weeks Economist on the PLA.

Major takeaway- not as formidable as some people think

1. Difficulty in recruiting highly skilled troops - fall out from the single child policy

2. Weapons - some are very modern but they are still heavily dependent on Russia/Ukraine etc. Especially for marine & aircraft engines of all sorts

3. Lack of experience - haven't fought a war or engaged in active "peace keeping" of any sort for over 40 years. Zero experience of land/sea operations

4. Rampant corruption in many parts of the system - including promotions - hence recent clear out of senior Generals

5. Political control - some troops spend 25% of their time studying "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a new era"

6. Desperate need to learn lessons of the Ukraine etc - army still built around Russian type BTG's and all decisions are taken at a much higher level than in the West

7. Logistics - poor - "not strong enough to meet the conditions of modern warfare" according to the PLA Daily in Feb 2023. Most dumps are a long way from anywhere, almost nothing opposite Taiwan for example, and are dependent on outdated systems and poor road and rail connections.

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Old 13th Nov 2023, 12:38
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Chinese police to patrol in Thailand to boost tourist confidence

Unprecedented!!! Thailand is bending over to China for the sake of tourist revenue, after a couple of shootings where Chinese tourists got shot.

Thailand is very safe in general, I was there a month ago. Every once in a while something happens, that's normal, things happen, same everywhere else.

There is a Chinese agenda here.

Chinese social media mentioned that when Chinese people apply for visas to Thailand, Chinese police tried to discourage them saying that is not safe.

That's not normal, this issue has been created intentionally by the Chinese government and now we get this news.

First they scare Chinese tourists from going to Thailand, then they ask Thailand to deploy Chinese police there.

This is part of an agenda to influence Thailand, right after Cambodia has become a Chinese puppet.
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Article text…….

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Old 13th Nov 2023, 13:32
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Interest8ng video of the confrontation.

Philippine ships deftly outsmart and outmaneuver Chinese ships to win the lopsided 5 to 38 match-up.

The Philippines Coast Guard says they will not be deterred, even if China doubles or triples their deployment.
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Old 13th Nov 2023, 22:21
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The US Air Force is training to take down Chinese warships, but China's military has built a 'wicked' problem for it to overcome (msn.com)

The US Air Force is training to take down Chinese warships, but China's military has built a 'wicked' problem for it to overcome

  • China's navy has rapidly increased the size and capability of its fleet.
  • That expansion worries the US military, and it has reemphasized anti-ship warfare in its training.
  • That's not a new task for US pilots, but they now face a "wicked" threat from China's air defenses.
The US Air Force is working on improving its ability to sink well-defended warships, a reflection of the US military's concern about the growing size and increasing capability of China's navy.

Strikes against maritime targets are nothing new for US pilots, but China's military has spent decades developing its air defenses, installing thickets of surface-to-air missiles on land and on its warships that now pose a "wicked" problem for US forces, commanders say.

China has launched new, more advanced ships at steady clip in recent years, building what is now the world's largest navy. It has also sent those ships on more complex operations across a wider swath of the Pacific. That larger, more capable force was on display in August 2022 during exercises of unprecedented size around Taiwan following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island.



Were there a clash with China over Taiwan, "the first target that we're going to have to deal with is the ships, because you saw when Speaker Pelosi went to Taiwan what they did with their ships. They put them on the east side of Taiwan as a sort of blockade," Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander of US Pacific Air Forces, said at an Air and Space Forces Association conference in March.

"Those ships can put up an anti-access/area-denial engagement zone, which comes from their surface-to-air missiles that they can shoot from the ships. So in order for us to get past those, we've got to sink the ships," Wilsbach said.

'Wicked dangerous'


A Type 055-class guided-missile cruiser in the Pacific in October 2021. Sun Zifa/China News Service via Getty Images© Sun Zifa/China News Service via Getty ImagesWilsbach's comments reflect concerns about the arsenal China has built to counter US military operations, which includes "the world's densest and most integrated air-defense system" along China's east coast, according to Brendan Mulvaney, director of the China Aerospace Studies Institute, which is part of the Department of the Air Force.



That air-defense system is part of China's "counter-intervention" strategy, which is "focused on not necessarily how to defeat the United States piecemeal but how to keep the United States and our allies and partners out of the region," Mulvaney said on a podcast in September.

China's navy plans to fight under the cover of those defenses, and its Type 052D-class destroyers and Type 055-class cruisers could extend that umbrella.

A Type 055-class cruiser fires its close-in weapon system at mock targets during a drill in May. eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Yang Yunxiang© Provided by Business Insider"The surface-to-air-missile systems they have on those tier-one surface-action-group assets is wicked, wicked dangerous territory — significantly more dangerous than anything that's fielded in and around Ukraine," Gen. Mark Kelly said of those warships during an Air and Space Forces Conference in September.



"If you then look at the fact that they have the same systems up and down the coast, if you look at what they can do in terms of jamming across the electromagnetic spectrum, if you look at their inventory of air-to-air missiles, and the list goes on and on," added Kelly, who leads the training and organizing of Air Force units as head of Air Combat Command.

China's military hasn't fought a war since 1979, and its new naval and air forces are untested in combat, but Chinese strategists have studied other wars and learned from other militaries — that likely includes lessons from America's use of "rings of air- and missile-defense management," ranging from combat air patrols by carrier aircraft down to each ship's close-in weapon systems, said Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities, a think tank.

Visitors stand around missile tubes aboard a Type 052D-class destroyer in Hong Kong in July 2017. TENGKU BAHAR/AFP via Getty Images© TENGKU BAHAR/AFP via Getty Images"I think it's fair to say that they may even be on par with us," Goldstein said in an interview in May. "China generally gets high marks in air defense, and they've come a long way, and they've gotten a lot of coaching from the Russians."

A weakness in China's naval air-defense network is the inability of its current aircraft carriers, Liaoning and Shandong, to launch airborne-early-warning-and-control aircraft like those that fly from US carriers to direct friendly forces and monitor enemy ships and aircraft.

Those carriers would likely stay near Taiwan during a conflict, protected by China's air force and the "very robust air defense and missile defense" of Type 052D- and Type 055-class ships, Goldstein said.

But China's newest carrier, Fujian, has an electromagnetic catapult that will allow it to launch the KJ-500 airborne-early-warning-and-control plane, extending China's radar coverage and providing "a major jump" in capability, Goldstein said.

Old skills, new focus


A captured German cruiser being bombed by US aircraft during a test in July 1921. US Naval History and Heritage Command© US Naval History and Heritage CommandUS pilots have trained to sink warships since the early 1920s, well before the Air Force's founding in 1947. That mission has remained part of the service's repertoire, even during recent ground wars.

"I can tell you from experience in 2007, although my unit was in the thick of considering waging warfare in Iraq or Afghanistan at the time, we executed a Pacific theater deployment and specifically integrated with the Navy and other partners," John Baum, a former US Air Force F-16 pilot, said in an interview in March.

"And of course, maritime strike was a training skill set that we worked on then," added Baum, now a senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

The Air Force's attention to the maritime-strike mission has varied over time, however, and recent milestones in training and weapons development indicate a renewed focus on being able take down enemy ships.

US Air Force A-10s at Naval Air Station North Island in California for Green Flag-West in November 2022. US Air Force/Senior Airman Zachary Rufus© US Air Force/Senior Airman Zachary RufusA major exercise in November 2022, called Green Flag-West, departed from its traditional focus on air-to-ground missions with the US Army and saw Air Force pilots work with the Navy "on facilitating air operations in maritime surface warfare missions, air-to-surface," the service said.

In another exercise a few weeks later, Air Force Weapons School students worked with Navy units on the school's "largest-ever over-water joint counter maritime exercise." Col. Daniel Lehoski, the Weapons School commandant, said afterward that a war in the Pacific would be "a maritime fight" and that it was the school's responsibility "to produce graduates who have both the capability and confidence to build, teach, and lead in the joint, maritime environment."

A maritime focus was also evident this year in the major air-combat exercises known as Red Flag at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada.

Red Flag 23-1 in February expanded its training area to include airspace over the Pacific https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/answering-the-china-challenge/. Red Flag 23-3, held this summer, incorporated a US Navy carrier strike group as it conducted a pre-deployment exercise. It was "the largest adaptation" of Red Flag in its 50-year history, Kelly, of Air Combat Command,
on social media.

F-16 pilots with the 64th Aggressor Squadron, which replicates enemy tactics, at Red Flag 23-1 in January. US Air Force/William R. Lewis© US Air Force/William R. LewisAnother Air Force official
Red Flag and other drills have made "an exponential leap" toward Pacific-focused scenarios over the past decade, adopting training that includes the "unique challenges" of "flying sorties over exposed ocean."

The Air Force is also updating its arsenal for maritime operations. It has tested a modified version of its Joint Direct Attack Munition, known as "Quicksink," to meet "an urgent need to neutralize maritime threats" and studied the use of other weapons in austere environments like those in the Pacific region.

The service is also looking for new anti-ship missiles. This spring, it announced plans to buy 268 Joint Strike Missiles over the next five years, which an official said would "bridge that gap" until it acquires more of the larger Long Range Anti-Ship Missile, which the Navy and Air Force both want and Lockheed Martin is scrambling to build.

New targeting systems have only made it easier "to find, fix, track, and target a ship," Baum said. "Now we have all-weather capabilities with new sensors on airplanes and also new weapons and fusing options available, so the targeting scenario, frankly, is much easier today than it was in the past, even 15 or 20 years ago."

While there are "different considerations" for finding targets on land and at sea, "from a technology standpoint, the Air Force has been committed to be able to hold any target at risk at any time on the planet," Baum added. "I don't think that that's any different considering the [Indo-Pacific Command] area and maritime targets."

A GBU-31 Joint Direct Attack Munition used in a Quicksink experiment in April 2022. US Air Force/1st Lt. Lindsey Heflin© US Air Force/1st Lt. Lindsey HeflinAir Force officials know China's military will try to use the Pacific's vast distances to challenge their operations and are making adaptations, including developing more dispersed air bases and investing in more efficient tanker aircraft and in drones that could fly ahead of crewed jets.

But the recent focus on integrating with naval forces is a sign the Air Force knows jets and bombs alone may not be enough to sink better-defended warships operating over greater ranges. Wilsbach said in September that training by Pacific Air Forces has emphasized "stacking effects" to bring more weapons to bear.

"The stacking of effects starts in cyber, then there's a space, then there's an air, there may be a surface, and there may be a subsurface component, with electronic combat happening — all needing to arrive on the target coincidentally," Wilsbach said.

"In a dynamic environment where aircraft and ships and perhaps ground units from the Army, with satellites traveling through space, all have to synchronize in time and space so the effects occur at the same time on the target — so you get munitions on the target to destroy and hopefully sink the ship, as an example — that we are working on constantly," Wilsbach said.


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Old 16th Nov 2023, 18:07
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Potentially Jet Blast material, but I thought it was appropriate to post here.

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Old 16th Nov 2023, 20:33
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https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...are-necessary/

Interesting article from Naval News. I have since first announcement of AUKUS thought that SK is the most obvious 4th member of AUKUS.
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Old 16th Nov 2023, 22:46
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Why wouldn't Sth Korea say "me too"? We are closer to Japan. Having both of them in the same room, will be loud.
Japan partnering with the UK for Tempest is also close to an AUKUS partner. Then we have the loyal wingman.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...ilitary-drones

The U.S. and Australia will join hands with Japan to develop next-generation military drones, the leaders of the two countries announced Wednesday, stepping up efforts in the field of "collaborative combat aircraft."

U.S. President Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese released a joint statement after their White House meeting, noting that the two allies will "explore trilateral cooperation with Japan" on unmanned aerial systems.

"Our cooperation aims to enhance interoperability and accelerate technology transfer in the rapidly emerging field of collaborative combat aircraft and autonomy," the statement said.

Last edited by golder; 17th Nov 2023 at 07:06.
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Old 16th Nov 2023, 23:15
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Originally Posted by golder
Why wouldn't Sth Korea say "me too"? We are closer to Japan. Having both of them in the same room, will be loud.
Japan partnering with the UK for Tempest is also close to an AUKUS partner. Then we have the loyal wingman.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...tary-dronesThe U.S. and Australia will join hands with Japan to develop next-generation military drones, the leaders of the two countries announced Wednesday, stepping up efforts in the field of "collaborative combat aircraft."
Link doesn't work but assuming its a MQ-28 program, I think the the MQ-28 will be targetted to any country that uses F-35. But also I been saying from day dot that australia getting involved in tempest program via the Mq-28 is a no brainer. Saves UK developing the CCA hence saving money and they integrate tempest and MQ-28 right from the start. MQ-28 wont give much to the UK for its F-35, but its wedgetails will be able to integrate it
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