Originally Posted by
ORAC
https://thehill.com/policy/internati...t-likely-2024/
Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say
A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.
That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.
Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….
This is a nightmare scenario for the US and Taiwan. Taiwan can only survive in its present form with unrestricted routes for the import and export of goods. An illegal blockade would eventually bring Taiwan to its knees and force a de facto take over by China. I just don't see the US willing to go kinetic on PLA armed platforms blockading Taiwan. Without that as a realistic threat the US will have conceded the straits and then it is only a matter of time before Taiwan gets strangled.
The only other option is a full on US China trade war with the US cutting off enough trade to really hurt China including arm twisting the EU to fall in line, something else I just don't happening because of the economic pain that that will inflict on the EU and the US.