Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 27th Jul 2021, 20:32
  #1001 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 18,072
Received 2,125 Likes on 958 Posts
https://www.snafu-solomon.com/2021/0...to-invade.html

Leaked map shows China plans to invade S. Taiwan after taking Kinmen, Penghu

via Taiwan News.

Later that afternoon, two accounts on the tightly government-orchestrated social media site Weibo, Tianfu Community and Dingsheng Forum, released a photo of PLA soldiers seated with their backs turned to a massive topographical model of southern Taiwan. The model is covered in black marks, appearing to show key strategic locations the PLA plans to seize during an invasion…….

ORAC is online now  
Old 27th Jul 2021, 23:51
  #1002 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 1,352
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Originally Posted by Imagegear
There is some interesting background in this document to China's claims to the SCS. It would appear that they have no leg to stand on under law.

South China Sea Tribunal

IG
Taiwan also supports the 9-Dash line, despite the clearly limited historical evidence, so it is not a Beijing only policy.
etudiant is offline  
Old 27th Jul 2021, 23:56
  #1003 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 1,352
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
The good Admiral is on the right track.
China will multiply its nuclear strike force to be the largest in the world, because that is a cheap way to get real respect.
They have the production capacity to do it easily and there is no incentive for them not to do so.
etudiant is offline  
Old 28th Jul 2021, 00:33
  #1004 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Downeast
Age: 75
Posts: 18,319
Received 594 Likes on 250 Posts
No incentive to stop.....who would try to stop them?

I can see the current American President sending them a terse Note about it.
SASless is offline  
Old 28th Jul 2021, 01:17
  #1005 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: surfing, watching for sharks
Posts: 4,097
Received 62 Likes on 40 Posts
Originally Posted by SASless
No incentive to stop.....who would try to stop them?

I can see the current American President sending them a terse Note about it.
Stop or I shall scream stop a second time?
West Coast is offline  
Old 28th Jul 2021, 02:49
  #1006 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Canada
Posts: 169
Received 19 Likes on 9 Posts
What would DJT do - fall in love all over again, this time with Xi?
Commander Taco is offline  
Old 28th Jul 2021, 04:01
  #1007 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: surfing, watching for sharks
Posts: 4,097
Received 62 Likes on 40 Posts
Originally Posted by Commander Taco
What would DJT do - fall in love all over again, this time with Xi?
It doesn’t matter what Trump would do. Biden is at the helm, it’s his to deal with.

Last edited by West Coast; 28th Jul 2021 at 14:20.
West Coast is offline  
Old 28th Jul 2021, 04:18
  #1008 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Downeast
Age: 75
Posts: 18,319
Received 594 Likes on 250 Posts
News must travel slowly in the far north.
SASless is offline  
Old 28th Jul 2021, 07:57
  #1009 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Canada
Posts: 169
Received 19 Likes on 9 Posts
The election turned out to be a narrow thing boys. One has to wonder. Maybe all the situation would have needed is a few of his love letters.
Commander Taco is offline  
Old 28th Jul 2021, 11:35
  #1010 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Downeast
Age: 75
Posts: 18,319
Received 594 Likes on 250 Posts
Perhaps it is not the mail that is slow up north.
SASless is offline  
Old 29th Jul 2021, 02:20
  #1011 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Hong Kong
Age: 56
Posts: 1,446
Received 3 Likes on 2 Posts
Originally Posted by etudiant
Taiwan also supports the 9-Dash line, despite the clearly limited historical evidence, so it is not a Beijing only policy.
The KMT might have done when it thought it had a chance of taking back control of China - but does the DPP now? I doubt it.
Load Toad is offline  
Old 29th Jul 2021, 03:14
  #1012 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: GMT
Age: 53
Posts: 2,106
Received 207 Likes on 81 Posts
Originally Posted by Commander Taco
What would DJT do - fall in love all over again, this time with Xi?
What would Trudeau do? He must have a Kung fu suit in his dressing up box he’s been itching to get out?
minigundiplomat is offline  
Old 29th Jul 2021, 08:46
  #1013 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: australia
Posts: 1,686
Received 47 Likes on 31 Posts
What do I know about China… not much. Apart From WW2 reading up on The Hump, Flying Tigers etc and movies like The Last Emperor.

Now that they have a new Emperor, may I recommend “The Invention of China” by Bill Hayton. Published in 2020.
Associate Fellow of Chatham House and Beeb World News journalist.

Its heavy going, but very well worth the effort. Chapters deal with, in great detail, the following….
The invention of China, sovereignty, the Han race, History, the Nation, the language and the Maritime claim.

Get stuck in and persevere…it’s well worth it. For ones own education.
aroa is online now  
Old 29th Jul 2021, 09:47
  #1014 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Under a recently defunct flight path.
Age: 77
Posts: 1,379
Received 22 Likes on 14 Posts
In The Times today.
Beijing’s hostile welcome for British fleet


China’s navy is hoping to “practise” its military skills on the British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth as it sails through the tense and contested waters of the South China Sea, the country’s state media has warned.

In a teasingly sinister message of welcome, the nationalist tabloid Global Times reported that the People’s Liberation Army navy was holding exercises of its own in two separate parts of the sea, and would react to any “improper acts” by the British fleet. Other Chinese commentary has denounced the British deployment as a pretentious act of neo-colonial chest-thumping.

“The PLA will closely monitor the UK warships’ activities, stand ready to deal with any improper acts, and also see this as a chance for practise and for studying the UK’s latest warships up close,” the Global Times reported, citing an unnamed military expert.

“China receives friends with good wine and deals with wolves with a shotgun,” warned Wu Shicun, president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, in an article published online yesterday.

The passage of the Queen Elizabeth, which is accompanied by an American and Dutch ship as well as its own support vessels, is intended to underline the government’s strategic “tilt” to East Asia at a time of increasing Chinese military assertiveness throughout the region. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said last week that, despite China’s claims to sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, Britain had a “duty” to insist on freedom of navigation through the strategic waterway through which $5 trillion of trade passes every year.

Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, sounded a note of caution about the British tilt towards Asia — hinting at concerns that it overstretches Britain’s armed forces. At a speech in Singapore he emphasised the need for countries with limited resources to “balance” military commitments around the world.

“If, for example, we focus a bit more here [in Asia], are there areas that the UK can be more helpful in other parts of the world?” Austin asked.
Sensible comment by Lloyd Austin - but will it be heeded?

Lyneham Lad is offline  
Old 29th Jul 2021, 14:18
  #1015 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: surfing, watching for sharks
Posts: 4,097
Received 62 Likes on 40 Posts
Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad
In The Times today.
Beijing’s hostile welcome for British fleet




Sensible comment by Lloyd Austin - but will it be heeded?
Quite frankly SECDEF’s comments should have been made in private and not in a public forum. The RN would be quite right in telling Austin to stuff it.
West Coast is offline  
Old 29th Jul 2021, 16:31
  #1016 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 1,352
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Originally Posted by West Coast
Quite frankly SECDEF’s comments should have been made in private and not in a public forum. The RN would be quite right in telling Austin to stuff it.
So sensible comments should only be made in private?
Perhaps that explains the quality of much of the public discourse.
etudiant is offline  
Old 29th Jul 2021, 17:18
  #1017 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: surfing, watching for sharks
Posts: 4,097
Received 62 Likes on 40 Posts
Originally Posted by etudiant
So sensible comments should only be made in private?
Perhaps that explains the quality of much of the public discourse.
I would expect the SECDEF to praise in public, criticize in private.
West Coast is offline  
Old 29th Jul 2021, 17:35
  #1018 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 1,352
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Originally Posted by West Coast
I would expect the SECDEF to praise in public, criticize in private.
Agree fully, so suspect he is now speaking out after that effort was rebuffed. At least he is putting down a marker that the US thinks this is stupid.
etudiant is offline  
Old 29th Jul 2021, 17:57
  #1019 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: surfing, watching for sharks
Posts: 4,097
Received 62 Likes on 40 Posts
Originally Posted by etudiant
Agree fully, so suspect he is now speaking out after that effort was rebuffed. At least he is putting down a marker that the US thinks this is stupid.
Doubtful. Successful messaging associated with FON exercises is driven home not by one nation doing them but by many from near and far.

I hope the task force stays for a long while, an FU to the Chinese and to Austin.

Anyway, who is Austin to suggest to the UK to stay in their own lane. The Chinese will eat up the division offered by him.
West Coast is offline  
Old 29th Jul 2021, 20:11
  #1020 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Hampshire
Posts: 1,372
Received 149 Likes on 94 Posts
So are VMFA-211 and DDG-68 no longer in the same chain of command as the US SECDEF? As West Coast implies, I think the Indian and Malaysian Navies (and their Governments) are not be alone in welcoming having more than just the USN demonstrating a commitment to the rule of law in the Indian Ocean and South China.

If General (rtd) Austin is hinting that the UK needs to address its overstretch by investing more in defence capabilities, then I wouldn't disagree. I wonder if he has some residual doubts from a perception of the effects overstretch on the UK's commitment to operations Iraq or Afghanistan during his commands there? As a trained counsellor I would have thought he would know the importance of listening carefully before giving advice.
SLXOwft is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.