Future Carrier (Including Costs)
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From: Under a recently defunct flight path.
Joined: Mar 2006
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From: England
Good VSOs then do what is required - not necessarily the same.
Very good VSOs are able to convince the leaders that this action is what they said - meant, or at least be able to take credit.
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From: Ferrara
"It remains incongruous to say the least, that the RN is copping flak because the premier RAF base in the Med has been left unhardened and undefended while our most expensive tacair assets are deployed there."
I agree - but it seems to have come as vast surprise to Politicians and media that we don't have enough escorts (or ships of any sort TBH) and that many of the ones we have are in extended maintenance. Blaming the Navy is hard - these are the results of decisions taken long long ago and endorsed and supported by every Govt for 35 years.
I agree - but it seems to have come as vast surprise to Politicians and media that we don't have enough escorts (or ships of any sort TBH) and that many of the ones we have are in extended maintenance. Blaming the Navy is hard - these are the results of decisions taken long long ago and endorsed and supported by every Govt for 35 years.
Joined: Dec 2001
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From: Here 'n' there!
Re your last point of convincing the Politicians that that's what they wanted all along, that assumes the politicians are able to grasp even fairytales!
This cheery missive popped up for me. Basically it says the current political battles within the Cabinet threaten any chance to rebuild the Armed Forces given Rachel from Accounts attitude.
It's an absolute farce!
TBH, I suspect most of us agree the above +/- a bit. To blame VSOs is somewhat deflecting the blame from the real culprits in Westminster - over many decades. As I pointed out to my Green MP in a recent exchange, as an MP, he shares responsibility to ensure adequate national defence is provided. Silence! Wonder why?
No wonder the Quack gloomily advised me that I have very high Blood Pressure just last week!!!
Joined: Apr 2020
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From: Hampshire
RFA Lyme Bay's return to active duty is being brought forward, to be available to conduct a role that for preference would have been carried out by a servicable Argus or a replacement for her.
(Navy Lookout)
The Royal Navy is preparing RFA Lyme Bay to sail from Gibraltar if required. In the event of the Middle East crisis expanding, she has the capability to evacuate civilians and has modest medical facilities.
Although retaining some of her crew, Lyme Bay has been inactive alongside in Gibraltar since completing a 3-week maintenance period at GibDock in December. She had not been expected to return to operations until the start of the new financial year in April. This measure, to achieve very small savings, demonstrates how desperately tight the MoD’s RDEL (daily running expenses) budget has become.
Instead, she was reactivated last week, and medical personnel and supplies are being flown into Gibraltar to embark on the ship, along with a contingent of Royal Marines and a helicopter (most likely a Merlin Mk 4).
Although retaining some of her crew, Lyme Bay has been inactive alongside in Gibraltar since completing a 3-week maintenance period at GibDock in December. She had not been expected to return to operations until the start of the new financial year in April. This measure, to achieve very small savings, demonstrates how desperately tight the MoD’s RDEL (daily running expenses) budget has become.
Instead, she was reactivated last week, and medical personnel and supplies are being flown into Gibraltar to embark on the ship, along with a contingent of Royal Marines and a helicopter (most likely a Merlin Mk 4).
Joined: Apr 2006
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From: Portsmouth
And in the meantime, the Beeb is massively over-reacting by streaming Dragons departure (direct from the UHAF) live.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cjeng8l15j8t#player
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cjeng8l15j8t#player
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From: Portsmouth
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
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From: Peripatetic
The thing that baffles me is what capability the Dragon is being sent to provide. For all the hype about ballistic missile defence, she is currently not capable of intercepting Iranian missiles with range to reach Cyprus. (1) (2)
The T-45 is currently only capable of intercepting short range TBMs, not the longer range ones capable of reaching Israel or Cyprus. Even the SVE-1 upgrade will make it marginal, and that had a planned IOC of 2028 which has slipped to 2032. (3) (4)
In the present conflict the only real capability is with the Arleigh Burke cruisers currently in the Eastern Mediterranean. (5)
1. https://www.navylookout.com/what-is-...le-capability/
2. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-o...sile-upgrades/
3. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/upda...ssile-upgrade/
4. https://militarywatchmagazine.com/ar...issile-defence
5. https://news.usni.org/2025/06/20/5-u...iterranean-sea
The T-45 is currently only capable of intercepting short range TBMs, not the longer range ones capable of reaching Israel or Cyprus. Even the SVE-1 upgrade will make it marginal, and that had a planned IOC of 2028 which has slipped to 2032. (3) (4)
In the present conflict the only real capability is with the Arleigh Burke cruisers currently in the Eastern Mediterranean. (5)
1. https://www.navylookout.com/what-is-...le-capability/
2. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-o...sile-upgrades/
3. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/upda...ssile-upgrade/
4. https://militarywatchmagazine.com/ar...issile-defence
5. https://news.usni.org/2025/06/20/5-u...iterranean-sea
Joined: Dec 2001
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From: The Roman Empire
I think sending HMS Dragon is about the optics of the situation for politicians.
It's a case of being seen to be doing something, with most of the general public having no idea what she does, or doesn't, actually bring to the party.
It's a case of being seen to be doing something, with most of the general public having no idea what she does, or doesn't, actually bring to the party.
Joined: Apr 2020
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From: Hampshire
As Biggus says this is a gesture deployment, the air component FW, and to a limited extent RW, aircraft to counter the drone threat are fulfilling the necessary roles.
A BM threat to the Sovereign Bases would almost certainly originate from Hezbollah acting as a proxy rather than Iran itself as is suspected of the drone attack, and is unlikely to materialise.They are believed to have a limited number of Fateh-110s. As I have implied before, the presence of the US's noisy, black "weather balloon" probably made Akrotiri a legitimate target in the eyes of the IRGC, I suspect the drone was a one off and won't be repeated.
A BM threat to the Sovereign Bases would almost certainly originate from Hezbollah acting as a proxy rather than Iran itself as is suspected of the drone attack, and is unlikely to materialise.They are believed to have a limited number of Fateh-110s. As I have implied before, the presence of the US's noisy, black "weather balloon" probably made Akrotiri a legitimate target in the eyes of the IRGC, I suspect the drone was a one off and won't be repeated.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
As I have implied before, the presence of the US's noisy, black "weather balloon" probably made Akrotiri a legitimate target in the eyes of the IRGC, I suspect the drone was a one off and won't be repeated.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
Point of Pedantry: I assume ORAC meant AEGIS BMD rather than the base AEGIS combat system.
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33745
https://news.usni.org/2026/03/04/nato-shoots-down-iranian-missile-headed-for-turkey
..NATO assets shot down an Iranian ballistic missile headed for Turkey, alliance officials said Wednesday.
“A ballistic munition detected to have been launched from Iran and, after passing through the airspace of Iraq and Syria, directed towards Turkish airspace, was timely engaged and neutralized by NATO air and missile defense assets deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean,” reads an English-language statement from the Turkish Defense Ministry…..
“A ballistic munition detected to have been launched from Iran and, after passing through the airspace of Iraq and Syria, directed towards Turkish airspace, was timely engaged and neutralized by NATO air and missile defense assets deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean,” reads an English-language statement from the Turkish Defense Ministry…..
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
To expand in the above.
It does seem the military decision not to deploy a T-45 to the eastern Mediterranean was the correct one; the decision to subsequently deploy HMS Dragon post the attack on Akrotiri seems a political decision to allay Cypriot feelings which, unfortunately is obscuring the fact that’s it’s the wrong solution to the wrong problem.
The Ballistic Missile Threat to the Cyprus SBAs
The current ballistic missile threat to the SBAs in Cyprus lies in Iranian MRBMs of the types recently fired at the airbase at Incirlik in Turkey. These are medium range ballistic missile (MRBM) who performance in trajectory and speed means they are outside the engagement envelope of the current T-45 Sea Viper Aster 30 missile system. This shortcoming will only be addressed once they have received their SVE-1 upgrade around 2032*. The same equally holds true for the other European ships with systems based around Aster.
However, this threat is, as demonstrated by the interception of the MRBM aimed at Incirlik by the USN Arleigh-Burke AEGIS destroyers deployed in the eastern Mediterranean for the defence of their assets in Israel and Turkey and, presumably, also the long term U-2 deployment at Akrotiri.
The decision not to deploy a T-45 for missile defence of the SBAs would seem, therefore, to have been correct, the current deployment of HMS Dragon being purely for political reasons.
* Future Carrier (Including Costs)
The Drone Threat to the SBAs
The attack last week on Akrotiri, which hit the hangar used by the US U-2 detachment, was performed by a late model Shahed drone using Russian components, such as the Kometa-B navigation system first seen in use in Ukraine last December. Indicating that Iran, and its allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, are using the latest generation of such drones hardened against EW. Whilst the Ukrainians are evolving their defences against such drones on an almost daily basis, the UK is not.
The initial C-UAS defence deployed to Akrotiri (not elsewhere such as Episkopi or Dhekelia) was the 34 Sqn RAF Regiment Protection C-UAS Wing with the ORCUS passive defence system - which would appear to have not been effective jamming a late generation drone. What is not obvious is if, and now since, the RAPIDsentry (with LMM missiles)** active defence system was deployed alongside it.
** https://archive.is/20260306103608/ht...ones-x0zb52vz0
Iran
There are now a number of fixed and rotary wing assets deployed in the C-UAS role, (RAF F-35Bs, Greek and Turkish F-16s, RN Wildcat helicopters along with a single CrowsNest Merlin) along with the large number of Dutch, French, German and Italian frigates and destroyers and the imminent arrival of the CdG carrier and it’s Rafale wing.
All the above will be able to provide an air defence screen around Cyprus but at high cost in time and assets against cheap expendable drones, and where every missile expended will cost far more than the drone destroyed. It is also questionable as to whether they would be able to defence against a mass attack. Note that in Ukraine a single overnight attack can involve in excess of 500 such drones.
What is needed, if only as a back-stop last ditch defence around high value assets, is an effective interceptor drone system such as one of those recently offered by Ukraine to NATO - and rebuffed by the DoD.***
***
https://archive.is/20260310094455/ht...ti-drone-offer
The Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, rapidly exhausting their stocks of Patriot and other expensive missiles with replacement many years away, are now urgently negotiating to procure such systems.**** I would suggest that the UK should immediately sign an emergency UOR for the purchase of such systems not only for Cyprus but also HVAs in the UK.
It should be noted that such drones can as easily be launched from a commercial vessel at sea as well as from land.
**** https://kyivindependent.com/exclusiv...d-iran-threat/
It does seem the military decision not to deploy a T-45 to the eastern Mediterranean was the correct one; the decision to subsequently deploy HMS Dragon post the attack on Akrotiri seems a political decision to allay Cypriot feelings which, unfortunately is obscuring the fact that’s it’s the wrong solution to the wrong problem.
The Ballistic Missile Threat to the Cyprus SBAs
The current ballistic missile threat to the SBAs in Cyprus lies in Iranian MRBMs of the types recently fired at the airbase at Incirlik in Turkey. These are medium range ballistic missile (MRBM) who performance in trajectory and speed means they are outside the engagement envelope of the current T-45 Sea Viper Aster 30 missile system. This shortcoming will only be addressed once they have received their SVE-1 upgrade around 2032*. The same equally holds true for the other European ships with systems based around Aster.
However, this threat is, as demonstrated by the interception of the MRBM aimed at Incirlik by the USN Arleigh-Burke AEGIS destroyers deployed in the eastern Mediterranean for the defence of their assets in Israel and Turkey and, presumably, also the long term U-2 deployment at Akrotiri.
The decision not to deploy a T-45 for missile defence of the SBAs would seem, therefore, to have been correct, the current deployment of HMS Dragon being purely for political reasons.
* Future Carrier (Including Costs)
The Drone Threat to the SBAs
The attack last week on Akrotiri, which hit the hangar used by the US U-2 detachment, was performed by a late model Shahed drone using Russian components, such as the Kometa-B navigation system first seen in use in Ukraine last December. Indicating that Iran, and its allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, are using the latest generation of such drones hardened against EW. Whilst the Ukrainians are evolving their defences against such drones on an almost daily basis, the UK is not.
The initial C-UAS defence deployed to Akrotiri (not elsewhere such as Episkopi or Dhekelia) was the 34 Sqn RAF Regiment Protection C-UAS Wing with the ORCUS passive defence system - which would appear to have not been effective jamming a late generation drone. What is not obvious is if, and now since, the RAPIDsentry (with LMM missiles)** active defence system was deployed alongside it.
** https://archive.is/20260306103608/ht...ones-x0zb52vz0
Iran
There are now a number of fixed and rotary wing assets deployed in the C-UAS role, (RAF F-35Bs, Greek and Turkish F-16s, RN Wildcat helicopters along with a single CrowsNest Merlin) along with the large number of Dutch, French, German and Italian frigates and destroyers and the imminent arrival of the CdG carrier and it’s Rafale wing.
All the above will be able to provide an air defence screen around Cyprus but at high cost in time and assets against cheap expendable drones, and where every missile expended will cost far more than the drone destroyed. It is also questionable as to whether they would be able to defence against a mass attack. Note that in Ukraine a single overnight attack can involve in excess of 500 such drones.
What is needed, if only as a back-stop last ditch defence around high value assets, is an effective interceptor drone system such as one of those recently offered by Ukraine to NATO - and rebuffed by the DoD.***
***
https://archive.is/20260310094455/ht...ti-drone-offer
The Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, rapidly exhausting their stocks of Patriot and other expensive missiles with replacement many years away, are now urgently negotiating to procure such systems.**** I would suggest that the UK should immediately sign an emergency UOR for the purchase of such systems not only for Cyprus but also HVAs in the UK.
It should be noted that such drones can as easily be launched from a commercial vessel at sea as well as from land.
**** https://kyivindependent.com/exclusiv...d-iran-threat/
Joined: Dec 2001
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From: The Roman Empire
If the UK were to try to buy Patriot, or a similar system, assuming Rachel Reeves would fund it, tomorrow, how many countries do you think would be in the queue ahead of us for new systems and missile restocks? How many years would it be before we saw any hardware on site?
Which is not to say we don't need such a system(s).
Which is not to say we don't need such a system(s).
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 2,130
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From: Royal Berkshire
If the UK were to try to buy Patriot, or a similar system, assuming Rachel Reeves would fund it, tomorrow, how many countries do you think would be in the queue ahead of us for new systems and missile restocks? How many years would it be before we saw any hardware on site?
Probably better off jumping in with many other European countries and ordering some IRIS-T systems, which maybe only medium range compared to Patriot and Arrow 3 systems, but better to have something rather than the nothing we currently have, although isn't there a land-based system already on the market that uses the same Astor 30 missiles used in the T45, which might make more sense to the UK?
