Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Worldwide > Fragrant Harbour
Reload this Page >

Cathay Pacific imploding.

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

Cathay Pacific imploding.

Old 2nd Aug 2023, 18:14
  #81 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Utopia
Posts: 844
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Originally Posted by Fly747
https://www.youtube.com/live/BGAIQqoGGZ0?feature=share

Cathay ?239 at around the 2hr 10 min mark.
Lovely landing by a Sing jumbo immediately after.
Holy crap! Well, what do you expect - really, what do you expect these days? The most qualified pilots left a long time ago - unless they´re really stuck in Donkie Kong.
Klimax is offline  
Old 2nd Aug 2023, 21:03
  #82 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Vermont
Posts: 79
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Angle_of_Attack
If you actually took the time to understand exactly what is meant by the global pilot shortage or read the statistics, you'll see that it is a global PROJECTED shortage, a FORECAST of demand for the next two decades or so.
Therefore, you may not be seeing the effects of it immediately (in present time) but airlines will be prepping for it because they do try to plan long-term, despite what many of you seem to think.
This is shown in part by the ordering of aircraft, and the need to acquire / train people to pilot and crew those aircraft when they are received.
If you understood this basic fact about aviation you'd know this.
In order to understand the GLOBAL pilot shortage, STW would have to broaden his mind a mind.
He’s already stated he is not interested (as in eligible) in the European and US markets, and I am going to go out on a limb and expand that to South America and the Indian subcontinent.
He’s probably also not interested in what’s going on in the Middle East, so neither should you be.
Which leaves Africa (probably well below par for the ole chap), China and HKG.
If you put yourself in his shoes for a moment, you can clearly see that from his point of view there is NO pilot shortage.
Piet Lood is offline  
Old 2nd Aug 2023, 22:49
  #83 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 55
Posts: 490
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Piet, are you ok? You used to at least read my posts before having your usual rant. Tired? The EASA FTL's are a bitch, hope you are fine..

I was emphasizing the unfortunate fact that there is no global shortage, only a regional one in the US and Australia. Kindly see the thread link and the post I was replying to.

If you want to leave Asia and return to Europe, or even change jobs within Asia, as an experienced pilot it's extremely difficult and most likely only possible by making extreme financial sacrifices. You will probably end up like Piet, in a mediocre job he only took to be home. As I said a million times before, it could still be worth it, money is not everything, but this is a complete different discussion. Presently there is no shortage of suitable pilots in Europe or Asia, and again and again, I am talking about job prospects for experienced guys at a certain age. A shortage of candidates at Whizz Air Base Hungary for 3000 Euros is not a shortage, it's a tragedy. That is precisely what I was commenting on, and the above thread link would inform you I am not alone making this assessment. Just bloody read it if you care.

I am only modestly interested in alleged future shortages, mainly because I happen to live now and not in 10 years and also just about anyone can make these predictions. Also after about 20 years hearing these claims in here, without ever materializing, frankly, it's getting a bit boring.Also AoA, what statistic should I please consider? Which data? Show it to me! I bet you can't. You made a very common mistake. You mixed up projected(!) growth and demand(!) with shortage. Not the same thing. Plus exponential growth of IT technology is not included, the demand is based on current cockpit layouts and technique. It doesn't require much fantasy what consequences recruitment problems in US will have on AI solutions and automation. Massive investments in this sector will eventually lead to higher productivity, unavoidable. And again, the crucial question is of course, where and when is that mystic shortage? I need a job today not in 2035.

As to the main title of the thread, Cathay is still not imploding, but will soon post record profits. The seniority list will grow with the help of cadets, upgrade times will go down. Some familiar names popped up at the bottom of the list as well, another clear indicator of how difficult it is to secure a financially reasonable employment elsewhere.

The shortage is a fever dream, as is the demise of Cx, it's wishful thinking. All the talk about safety problems is just tiring and ignorant of the actual data. Look at the safety records of Chinese or Indian airlines just as an example. Exactly what I said from the beginning, and for what I get crucified and ridiculed in here since years now. There will be a massive rebound, amplified by the enlarged HKIA next year and high profits, mark my words.

Now go on and shoot the messenger as usual, it's ok, I know you guys are unable to distinguish between a debate on future developments and taking sides..

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 3rd Aug 2023 at 03:48.
Sam Ting Wong is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2023, 19:21
  #84 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Vermont
Posts: 79
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Sam Ting Wong
Piet, are you ok? You used to at least read my posts before having your usual rant. Tired? The EASA FTL's are a bitch, hope you are fine..

I was emphasizing the unfortunate fact that there is no global shortage, only a regional one in the US and Australia. Kindly see the thread link and the post I was replying to.

If you want to leave Asia and return to Europe, or even change jobs within Asia, as an experienced pilot it's extremely difficult and most likely only possible by making extreme financial sacrifices. You will probably end up like Piet, in a mediocre job he only took to be home. As I said a million times before, it could still be worth it, money is not everything, but this is a complete different discussion. Presently there is no shortage of suitable pilots in Europe or Asia, and again and again, I am talking about job prospects for experienced guys at a certain age. A shortage of candidates at Whizz Air Base Hungary for 3000 Euros is not a shortage, it's a tragedy. That is precisely what I was commenting on, and the above thread link would inform you I am not alone making this assessment. Just bloody read it if you care.

I am only modestly interested in alleged future shortages, mainly because I happen to live now and not in 10 years and also just about anyone can make these predictions. Also after about 20 years hearing these claims in here, without ever materializing, frankly, it's getting a bit boring.Also AoA, what statistic should I please consider? Which data? Show it to me! I bet you can't. You made a very common mistake. You mixed up projected(!) growth and demand(!) with shortage. Not the same thing. Plus exponential growth of IT technology is not included, the demand is based on current cockpit layouts and technique. It doesn't require much fantasy what consequences recruitment problems in US will have on AI solutions and automation. Massive investments in this sector will eventually lead to higher productivity, unavoidable. And again, the crucial question is of course, where and when is that mystic shortage? I need a job today not in 2035.

As to the main title of the thread, Cathay is still not imploding, but will soon post record profits. The seniority list will grow with the help of cadets, upgrade times will go down. Some familiar names popped up at the bottom of the list as well, another clear indicator of how difficult it is to secure a financially reasonable employment elsewhere.

The shortage is a fever dream, as is the demise of Cx, it's wishful thinking. All the talk about safety problems is just tiring and ignorant of the actual data. Look at the safety records of Chinese or Indian airlines just as an example. Exactly what I said from the beginning, and for what I get crucified and ridiculed in here since years now. There will be a massive rebound, amplified by the enlarged HKIA next year and high profits, mark my words.

Now go on and shoot the messenger as usual, it's ok, I know you guys are unable to distinguish between a debate on future developments and taking sides..
You know what’s getting a bit boring? (But still mildly entertaining).
Your thick skull and inability to admit you’re wrong.

US regional shortage? How many ex-CX guys are now flying for AA/Delta/UPS/Fedex/Atlas/United?
All regionals?

Also: who has trouble reading when I have told you multiple times that I have not gone home and didn’t have to make any “extreme financial sacrifice”, on the contrary, but you have always been good at ignoring facts and statements that don’t suit your narrative.

You keep doing you and we will continue to laugh at your silliness, although, as you said, it is getting a bit boring.

Let me end on a positive note for you, since you always seem to be willing to be so nice to me: the European low-cost market is indeed a tragedy.
And I blame pilots like you not willing to fight for better cos’s. ****, there goes my positive note.
Piet Lood is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 00:41
  #85 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 55
Posts: 490
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Piet Lood
You know what’s getting a bit boring? (But still mildly entertaining).
Your thick skull and inability to admit you’re wrong.

US regional shortage? How many ex-CX guys are now flying for AA/Delta/UPS/Fedex/Atlas/United?
All
Piet, the discussion was about whether there is a GLOBAL shortage, as some in here claim. I am saying there is no such thing, it is a REGIONAL shortage ( as in restricted to certain geographic regions , like the US or Australia).

Get some sleep! 😉

Sam Ting Wong is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 01:23
  #86 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Eden Valley
Posts: 2,129
Received 80 Likes on 33 Posts
Having used staff travel extensively around your “region” the last few months, networks and frequencies aren’t anywhere near what they were pre-COVID. If pre-COVID levels of flying achieved in Asia the pilot shortage should be glaringly evident. If China picks up it will be carnage with less obvious pilot markets straining ( Vietnam for example ).

CX seems slow off the mark versus say SQ. They aren’t alone. QF faces similar expansion issues in part limited by lack of pilots.

My prediction is by next year the global pilot shortage will fast hit Asia. Cathay will be profitable but constrained in expansion perhaps due a lack of Captains. Despite having flexible labour contracts its management seems lost in a legacy past. DEC’s make sense in excess of the trickle of ex-CX and ex-KA coming soon.
Gnadenburg is online now  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 01:31
  #87 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Earth
Posts: 73
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Sam Ting Wong
Piet, the discussion was about whether there is a GLOBAL shortage, as some in here claim. I am saying there is no such thing, it is a REGIONAL shortage ( as in restricted to certain geographic regions , like the US or Australia).

Get some sleep! 😉
I read pprune and generally don't comment, but mate, what world are you living in? I'm in Canada, and there's a full blown shortage everywhere... Air Canada has been hiring at an unprecedented rate, and they will continue to do so for at least the next 12 months...Upgrade times right now are sitting around 2 to 3 years on all narrowbody fleets at AC, and all the major Canadian carriers have been hiring in droves. The situation is the same in the US, both at the majors and the regionals, and, in other parts of the world also
a334 is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 02:02
  #88 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: HK
Posts: 134
Received 11 Likes on 8 Posts
Originally Posted by a334
I read pprune and generally don't comment, but mate, what world are you living in? I'm in Canada, and there's a full blown shortage everywhere... Air Canada has been hiring at an unprecedented rate, and they will continue to do so for at least the next 12 months...Upgrade times right now are sitting around 2 to 3 years on all narrowbody fleets at AC, and all the major Canadian carriers have been hiring in droves. The situation is the same in the US, both at the majors and the regionals, and, in other parts of the world also
Yeah but what you need to understand is that those shortages are limited to NA and a little bit in Aus. The EU has absolutely no issue at the moment plugging someone in the right seat of a 320/737. CX also has no issue with hiring crew, there’s still plenty of the 100+ who were let go in 2020 waiting to return, and many others with previous jet time lining up to jump in a widebody. AirNZ can still be picky with its applicants because there is simply no where else for NZ pilots to fly. I’m not always a fan of the tune STW sings but he’s not wrong in that regard.
cxflog is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 02:02
  #89 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 55
Posts: 490
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I can't comment on Canada, so ok, shortage in US, Australia and Canada. This is still not a global shortage.

Gnadenburg, I hope you are right.. I think we can agree there will never be a shortage of cadets, correct? Will there ever be a shortage of suitable FO's to upgrade in Cathay? Not sure. 777 and 747 has hundreds of potential candidates available with enough experience, plus as you mention it's now possible to go for DEC as well..As long as HKexpress and HK airlines can recruit.. By the way, I read somewhere that China is already very close to pre-Covid levels in terms of traffic numbers.

My guess is that in fall a profit share exceeding previous meagre couple of weeks will be announced, in order to match renumeration packages of our competitors.

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 4th Aug 2023 at 02:14.
Sam Ting Wong is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 02:19
  #90 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Vermont
Posts: 79
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
STW, you sound like Reg:
“All right, but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?”


Piet Lood is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 02:58
  #91 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 55
Posts: 490
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
No. still not the old Piet. Not a matching comparison at all, since as opposed to Reg I am not backpaddling. From the beginning I am saying no shortage in EU and Asia, same as in this moment. You did not read my posts properly, it's very obvious. Additionally, admittingly without any personal knowlege of the local Canadian market, only last year laid off based Canadian pilots relocated back to HK, I spoke with a couple of them, both experienced Cpts. They told me exactly the same: no suitable job offers in Canada that come even close to what CX is paying them, so they rather chose to endure quarantine and brutal restrictions and relocated to HK, in the midst of Covid. This is a true story, in total dozens returned. Go figure.

PS Instead of having a constant go at me, why not spend 5 minutes to research the job market in EU and Asia? I am not the enemy here, just get a reality check please. Remember Long Tail and Air Belgium, both r.i.p.? Do you even know the take home pay at ASL or Cityjet etc?

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 4th Aug 2023 at 03:57.
Sam Ting Wong is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 04:24
  #92 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: HK
Posts: 50
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Shortage in India too, off set by Go Air stopping flying. But Air India and Indigo are struggling to recruit fast enough to meet expansion plans.
Freehills is online now  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 05:06
  #93 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 55
Posts: 490
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Frank, here is a link to the recruitment site of the Lufthansa Group.

https://www.be-lufthansa.com/en/pilot

No vacancies for experienced pilots at the mainline, they occasionally recruit cadets only if at all. Upgrade time around 15 years for 737 and 20+ for long haul. Some limited offers at the low cost sub brands. Please research the pay scale at Eurowings or Discover, trust me, you will be in for a shock. Then subtract 45% tax and you might need a drink and some fresh air. These jobs are extremely poorly paid, you work a lot, and some contracts put you on no pay in low season. It's reflecting the very opposite of a shortage, they obviously get away with offering these low figures or they would up them.

The pay deal at LH is only possible because of enormous union power, similar to the US. It does NOT reflect a shortage and it's worth to look at the fine print, LH pilots agreed to previous cuts, which why the current raise looks high. The pay offer is the result of astronomical costs because of previous industrial action crippling the operation, not out of fear of losing staff. I guarantee you they would open every single Champagne bottle in their cellars if high seniority captains on A++ scale would voluntarily leave, the notion they want to keep them is really erroneous.

I do agree with you that we live in truly exceptional times, will see how this all works out in the end.

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 4th Aug 2023 at 05:48.
Sam Ting Wong is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 05:53
  #94 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Australia
Posts: 54
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Klimax;[url=tel:11478238
11478238[/url]]Holy crap! Well, what do you expect - really, what do you expect these days? The most qualified pilots left a long time ago - unless they´re really stuck in Donkie Kong.
I expect to see this featured in the AussieDashCams monthly video on YT at some point!
YeahNahYeah is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 07:05
  #95 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: Aus
Posts: 33
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Condor = 6000 EUR for a F/O pm
German tax on 6000 EUR is 42%

Take home = 3480 EUR

This excludes anything else the company deducts like health insurance etc.

Food for thought, this is the average police officers salary...
magenta magnet is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 07:16
  #96 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 55
Posts: 490
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Frank, bottom line there is no shortage of experienced pilots jobs in EU! Please don't distract by pointing out pay rise at airlines nobody of us will ever get into. It's as relevant as what UPS or Delta pays: zero. Cityline is hiring? You are looking at 2500 Euro net and 10 years to left hand seat, if you are lucky. Come on, let's not turn this thread into a kindergarden, you are better than this. Don't distract by turning this into "I take a worse job for quality of life" discussion either. I said multiple times, and please just check above, yes, sometimes it might be worth accepting lower pay for quality of life. Of course!! But this is an entire different discussion and topic. It might be worth becoming a gardener in Tuscany or a teacher in Paris, but what has that to do with pilot shortage??? Your accusation I would not see lifestyle over pay is simply not true, I literally just said it again in this very thread:


Originally Posted by Sam Ting Wong

If you want to leave Asia and return to Europe, or even change jobs within Asia, as an experienced pilot it's extremely difficult and most likely only possible by making extreme financial sacrifices. You will probably end up like Piet, in a mediocre job he only took to be home. As I said a million times before, it could still be worth it, money is not everything, but this is a complete different discussion.
I am talking about alternatives for experienced CX pilots in Asia and Europe, amd I am telling you there are no attractive jobs. Swiss??? You know well this is a lowly paid right seat for life job. Plus neither Swiss nor LH mainline hire anyone past 40 years of age. If you really know the German ( Swiss?) market so well, you should mention that imho. What else you got??? Condor F/O??? Come on, please, not you too.

Originally Posted by magenta magnet
Condor = 6000 EUR for a F/O pm
German tax on 6000 EUR is 42%

Take home = 3480 EUR

This excludes anything else the company deducts like health insurance etc.

Food for thought, this is the average police officers salary...
Exactly. This is the sad truth.

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 4th Aug 2023 at 07:44.
Sam Ting Wong is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 08:07
  #97 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 55
Posts: 490
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Any other great airlines that are not hiring you want to talk about?

;-)
Sam Ting Wong is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 08:21
  #98 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Vermont
Posts: 79
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Sam Ting Wong
Not a matching comparison at all, since as opposed to Reg I am not backpaddling.
Nail meet hammer!

Since you’re too thick to see the Reg comparison, I’ll spell it out for you:
”Okay, besides the US market, the Canadian market, the Australian market, the Indian market, the Asian market, the Middle Eastern market and the European flag carrier market, what have the Unions ever done for us?”
And we’ll keep adding more and more markets.
The fact that YOU don’t qualify for any of these markets because of age, looks or IQ doesn’t mean they’re not there.

Yes, I do know what salaries are at ASL and AirBelgium chief and it is indeed a tragedy.
I already “conceded” that.
Hence I didn’t end up there.
You always seem intent to compare apples and apples (or so you say) and that’s a bit hard when you compare things like housing costs.
i paid about HKD70,000 a month in housing in HKG. Where I am now, I pay less than a quarter of that, for a much nicer place.
I know you “conceded” life style, clean air and children’s education and health already, so I won’t go there.

By the way: AirBelgium is not “r.i.p.” (yet), so there’s yet ANOTHER inaccurate statement. (Sorry for the capitalisation, but not really).

(Is this the “old Piet” yet? Please let me know, since I am DYING to get your approval oh wise one)

Piet Lood is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 09:53
  #99 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Sydney,Australia
Age: 61
Posts: 27
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Bloody PRC spoilt a bloody good Honkies layover !
MacTrim is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2023, 12:37
  #100 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Global
Posts: 19
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by boocs
Whatever happened to "The Management" ? Thoroughly enjoyed his posts. Hope retirement is treating you well.

b.
He choked on his coolade!
captaindbusdriver is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.