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Cathay Pacific imploding.

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

Cathay Pacific imploding.

Old 4th Aug 2023, 13:08
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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The place is definitely imploding

What an amazing. experience...................


At least all the crew are descent people...............
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 14:32
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by captaindbusdriver
At least all the crew are descent people...............
Does that mean they’re all going down?
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 15:11
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Frank W. Abagnale
My benchmark is Lufthansa, not Condor.

I am just pointing out invalid points about comparing a Condor career with a police officer.


BTW:
Your assumptions about CityLine are wrong too.
A basic pay of 5500€ for a first year FO translates into 3370-3750€ after tax.

You are making things up.

What I find fascinating is that you defend your career with Cathay tooth and nail when it comes to inaccuracies and when somebody makes an invalid comparison of a year 1 FO to a lifetime average police officer you agree without investigating (as it serves your agenda).

You are clearly biased.

I understand that for you those carriers are not tempting, but it’s not true that there is nothing going on with the legacy carriers.

As I said before it wouldn’t surprise me if Lufthansa opens up for Ready Entries soon.


I am not interested in discussing a pilot shortage as it is too theoretical. Hence I don’t try to use it as an argument.
May I cut into this discussion?

Europe (incl. Germany) is far from any pilot shortage. "Shortages" in the UK may be true, the same in the US, but UK is no more EU-member, thus labour market closed to expats, like it is in the US. If the labor market for pilots in the US would be the same like in the EU, there would absolutely no shortage either, and salaries wouldn't be 500000$+, but end at 300000$.
The examples of Condor aren't fully valid: They neglect massive paycuts at Condor during their Chapter11-bankruptcy, which Condor survived only due to massive aids from the EU and the new investor (Attestor). So what they got additionally just neutralizes some of the cuts.
Other airlines in Germany are still behind pre-corona (like TUIfly with a total of 20% off), Ryanair what is it?, Easyjet has closed it's Berlin base.
So indeed the only "winner" ist Lufthansa, but LH does, as mentioned before, not hire experienced pilots, nor DECs, so they cannot be included in any discussion like this. But be careful: The agreement between LH and "Vereinigung Cockpit" about 25-50% payrise extends over 3 years and includes a one time tax free yearly extra pay of 3000€, as offered by the ministry of finance to all employers/employees in order to cover extra spendings for energy (sharply risen prices due to the Ukraine-war and sanctions against Russia).
Small attempts of Wizzair or Eurowings (Bases ARN, PRG, PMI) to attract pilots with a one time premium pay of 30000€ may be a sign of an improving labour market for pilots (coming from desastrous conditions for pilots before), but are not yet a sign of a "shortage". Only when monthly salaries at the mentioned airlines rise significantly, we might reevaluate the situation.
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Old 5th Aug 2023, 11:57
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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I concur with Memphis. In a real shortage situation the offered pay would have to be higher and the requirements lower.
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Old 5th Aug 2023, 12:24
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by corporal klinger
I concur with Memphis. In a real shortage situation the offered pay would have to be higher and the requirements lower.

Salaries don't go up immediately when there is a shortage.

First everybody starts hiring
Second, the hiring requirements are lowered. -seen that across the board
Third they will start to sponsor foreigners -virgin is doing that now
Fourth they will start to improve conditions.

This process ensures lowest cost per new employee, they don't start throwing money at it unless they absolutely have to.
There is a lot of movement between airlines at the moment, low cost to legacy etc. Once low cost can not crew, they will up the salary, then legacy has to follow.
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Old 5th Aug 2023, 12:45
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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Well, but isn't it fair to say that in this very moment there is no shortage? It may develop as you described, but we don't know that, do we? We all have seen airlines hiring and then stopping again, for whatever reason. Or simply recruiting at a constant rate, to unchanged conditions. There is no automatic sequence from a hiring phase to a shortage.
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Old 5th Aug 2023, 13:15
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Originally Posted by Oasis
Salaries don't go up immediately when there is a shortage.

First everybody starts hiring
Second, the hiring requirements are lowered. -seen that across the board
Third they will start to sponsor foreigners -virgin is doing that now
Fourth they will start to improve conditions.

This process ensures lowest cost per new employee, they don't start throwing money at it unless they absolutely have to.
There is a lot of movement between airlines at the moment, low cost to legacy etc. Once low cost can not crew, they will up the salary, then legacy has to follow.
The problem is indeed, that Europe is in a downturn already for many years, even at legacy carriers. To a certain extent this didn't hurt, since inflation was low or zero, while now still averaging 6% in Europe, with core inflation figures (w/o energy etc) even higher. In contrary to that airlines even deteriorated their T&Cs further and further, gaining momentum during the pandemic and in a total summary even LH-guys are "behind schedule", concerning their purchasing power, not talking about most non-legacy carriers.
Of course T&Cs now improve, but still there are enough qualified pilots, rushing in from anywhere, as Europe is a open labour market, compared to UK and US. And as long the mentioned salaries i.e. of Condor are attracting people from somewhere, being a huge improvement for them (unless they start calculating deduction for social welfare and taxes, as well taking into account living costs in Germany - a tiny appartment in the big and affluent cities costs 2000€/month, and the 6000€ mentioned above will result in 1500€ left after all deducted), there will be no "shortage".
The myth of "pilot shortage" has always been maintained by flight academies, even in worst times, in order to attract new students willing to pay. Most of them however never managed to get into one of the bigger airlines, heaving been left behind disappointed.
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Old 5th Aug 2023, 15:56
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by corporal klinger
Well, but isn't it fair to say that in this very moment there is no shortage? It may develop as you described, but we don't know that, do we? We all have seen airlines hiring and then stopping again, for whatever reason. Or simply recruiting at a constant rate, to unchanged conditions. There is no automatic sequence from a hiring phase to a shortage.

Well, I would say that there is a shortage, but that we are not yet at the stage where they start throwing with money, which would depend if the shortage is maintained and the bottom line is threatened.

I do see it progressing to that stage, though..

Like I wrote before, I see lots of pilots going from a to b and from c to a, but effectively no new pilots are entering the scene. Once the airlines realise they are losing as many people as they are gaining and things settle down, they have to attract from outside or up the money. (which they should, pay is generally terrible for pilots in the UK and Euroland)
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Old 6th Aug 2023, 09:05
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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There is no shortage of pilots so to speak.

There will be many individuals good and suitable enough to join the cadet programme but it does take time for them to be productive for the airline.

There are also many pilots out there who would not hesitate to take up a position with Cathay, especially those coming from turboprops, military or those with jet hours but working for really much more undesirable employers.

However, there is a shortage of well qualified and highly proficient pilots with above average capabilities and skills. CX probably can’t attract these guys as much as they could in the past for reasons we can all agree.

This might lower the experience levels in CX but this doesn’t necessarily mean it is unsafe.

There is no shortage of pilots, just a shortage of highly experienced and proficient ones.

When to know there is a shortage? When $ goes up. Just as we have seen in specifically in the US.As of now, again, no shortage in Asia or HK.





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Old 6th Aug 2023, 11:52
  #110 (permalink)  
 
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Ex-CX guys over in Europe are saying there are plenty of jobs. Virgin are recruiting, BA are recruiting, Norse, Jet 2, Ryanair and EasyJet. DHL are also looking for NTR 777 and 767 pilots. I have friends who went to AeroLogic and they are on great pay and conditions. Not as good as here in the US but they are all climbing in regards to conditions and pay. The fact that some think there are hardly any jobs over there is baloney
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Old 6th Aug 2023, 12:02
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Originally Posted by Fac6
Ex-CX guys over in Europe are saying there are plenty of jobs. Virgin are recruiting, BA are recruiting, Norse, Jet 2, Ryanair and EasyJet. DHL are also looking for NTR 777 and 767 pilots. I have friends who went to AeroLogic and they are on great pay and conditions. Not as good as here in the US but they are all climbing in regards to conditions and pay. The fact that some think there are hardly any jobs over there is baloney
Also Tui, whizzair (direct entry command).
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Old 6th Aug 2023, 12:24
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Fac6, Oasis, you are right, there are job openings, but..

- most are at LCC
- most are right seat only
- most are very poorly paid ( Whizzair, Eurowings)

To my knowledge Aerologic is offering about 8-9K after tax incl some overtime ( this could be wrong, I have no first hand source). This would be for long-haul with a difficult commute ( dep. on your residence obviously) and 80-90 hours block, round the world trips, 3 men to HKG via india.. I don't find that very attractive if true, it certainly would be on the lower edge for this kind of ops, and a 50% + cut (!) for a Cx CN.

Norse T&E are very poor, BA recruiting mainly for a LCC with significant less pay, Eurowings PMI base is 4500 Euro net for CN..So yes, technical job offers, but acceptable..?

Interestingly, most of the jobs you mentioned are from the UK, not EU. Seems like there is an imbalance and continental Europe not catching up for some reason.



Last edited by corporal klinger; 6th Aug 2023 at 12:38.
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Old 6th Aug 2023, 13:10
  #113 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by corporal klinger
Fac6, Oasis, you are right, there are job openings, but..

- most are at LCC
- most are right seat only
- most are very poorly paid ( Whizzair, Eurowings)

To my knowledge Aerologic is offering about 8-9K after tax incl some overtime ( this could be wrong, I have no first hand source). This would be for long-haul with a difficult commute ( dep. on your residence obviously) and 80-90 hours block, round the world trips, 3 men to HKG via india.. I don't find that very attractive if true, it certainly would be on the lower edge for this kind of ops, and a 50% + cut (!) for a Cx CN.

Norse T&E are very poor, BA recruiting mainly for a LCC with significant less pay, Eurowings PMI base is 4500 Euro net for CN..So yes, technical job offers, but acceptable..?

Interestingly, most of the jobs you mentioned are from the UK, not EU. Seems like there is an imbalance and continental Europe not catching up for some reason.
Fully agree to each word. The "imbalance" in the UK is due to their now closed labour market, while rest of Europe (at least EU + Switzerland, Norway etc) are open, thus getting "relief" from anywhere, even though it has "catched up", concerning the number of jobs (not T&Cs).
Aerologic, as mentioned has got a though rostering w/o taking time zones aspects into consideration (beyond mandatory EASA-rules), like legacy long range carriers do. The jobs there are ok, but on the long term the rosters can be accepted only by working part time. The pay instead doesn't (yet) reflect that, even though they made huge profits during past years.
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Old 6th Aug 2023, 20:29
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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Gents, i'm not sure what you're all on about saying there are no jobs and there's no shortage. The simple reality is, there is a shortage, globally, period. Whether it's a "shortage" of experienced pilots, is irrelevant. There are seats to be filled, that aren't being filled. Left or right, does not matter. All the ME3 airlines continue to hire like crazy, and without having to read pprune, I have first hand accounts from several ME3 pilots who tell me there are not enough pilots to keep up with the renowned demand since the recovery has started from covid.

Oasis hit the nail on the head perfectly. Airlines will start hiring, and will lower requirements before they will pay, and then if they can't get locals, they'll find a way to attract talent from abroad. Step 3 all depends on the country, it's easier in some to bring in foreign talent then in others.

I can tell you that in Canada, hiring minimums have gone way down, and I mean way, way down. There is one regional that pay is so bad, there are more pilots leaving then being hired. What has the solution been thus far? While trying to bridge the pay gap, it doesn't happen overnight... so step 2 has already happened. 5 plus years ago, you weren't getting an FO job without 2500 hours, now? Hiring mins are 500 hours, yes, you read that right, 500 hours, and there actually have been pilots with 500-700 hours getting hired lately... The same can be said of the legacies in Canada, where it used to be 4000-5000 hours, some have now gone down to as low as 1500 hours... and yes, while the mins are one thing and normally most hired are usually way above mins, those times have changed, and lot's of pilots have been getting hired right at the mins, and in some cases, well below the mins!

Times are changing, whether some of you want to believe there is a shortage or not is up to you, but it does exist, and it is a global phenomena more or less

Last edited by a334; 6th Aug 2023 at 21:37.
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Old 6th Aug 2023, 22:30
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People are getting hired at US majors with 1600 hrs. Anyone that suggests there is "no shortage" is not willing to recognise reality
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Old 7th Aug 2023, 02:07
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Originally Posted by mngmt mole
People are getting hired at US majors with 1600 hrs. Anyone that suggests there is "no shortage" is not willing to recognise reality
Yup I believe it. Don't remember where I heard/read, but one of the fastest widebody captain upgrades happened in the last year or so at one of the majors (Delta I believe it was). It was something like 3 or 4 years in the company, when he/she got the upgrade...

​​​​​
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Old 7th Aug 2023, 02:15
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It was actually 6 months. 767 command. I was at Delta a few months ago and got the story from their management. It wasn’t just one person either. They are cannibalising their training capacity this summer to meet air travel demand. So the pilot shortage is multi-faceted. It will hit Asia by early next year in my view however I don’t believe it will positively affect CX pilots. The mindset of both the pilot group and management is mutually deleterious and self-destructive.
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Old 7th Aug 2023, 02:27
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I think Memphis made a very valid argument: labour shortages are the result of restrictions for foreigners. Without those restrictions shortages won't easily materialise. Airlines like Cathay can recruit literally anyone from anywhere. Most countries in America and UK restrict influx of labour, as a result employers fight for those few with a local license, green card etc. The EU's single market and Asia's open door policy might be a very important factor going forward. Additionally, as Frank A. rightly pointed out, Chinese youth unemployment is at record high, same situation in Southern and Eastern Europe. I disagree respectfully with Gnadenburg, I don't see any individual responsibilities within the pilot group, the dominant factors are of a macro-economic nature in my opinion.

Last edited by corporal klinger; 7th Aug 2023 at 03:04.
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Old 7th Aug 2023, 02:52
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Originally Posted by Gnadenburg
It was actually 6 months. 767 command. I was at Delta a few months ago and got the story from their management. It wasn’t just one person either. They are cannibalising their training capacity this summer to meet air travel demand. So the pilot shortage is multi-faceted. It will hit Asia by early next year in my view however I don’t believe it will positively affect CX pilots. The mindset of both the pilot group and management is mutually deleterious and self-destructive.
Woaw, I didn't realize it was 6 months... that's, impressive, to say the least
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Old 7th Aug 2023, 05:01
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It was 6 months. Junior base slots went Captain upgrade in that period of time from joining. My friends son has been there less than a year (757) and he could upgrade now, but prefers to be a relatively senior FO with a better schedule. The bigger point is that a senior CX captain now earns less than a two year FO at a US major. I remember when senior management told the CX pilots that they would always be paid at least 10% more than the next highest paid in the world. A rather sad and pathetic joke now
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