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JJ 789 1st Jan 2021 07:43


Originally Posted by Australopithecus (Post 10958211)
Why no it isn’t in fact. I was taking poetic licence. In actual fact Covid-19 is much worse than that. I will save you the time: if infected, with any of the current known mutations you have an approximately 2% chance of dying, and an approximately 20% chance of having a lengthy long-covid illness or permanent disability. If you get the vaccine you have a demonstrated zero chance of dying, and a possibility of an easily treated allergic reaction approximately 1 in 2 million times.

Aviation is never coming back without a wide scale vaccination programme, and I would not be surprised to see them made mandatory by employers, governments and health care providers. .

Actually go check your figures again on the CDC website. I as a 33 year old have a miniscule chance of dying if I contract COVID. Look at the average age of death for COVID-19. It's not even a high consequence infectious disease (downgraded in the UK back in March).
Also while you're at it, have a look at the figures for the Pfizer vaccine in the UK. Almost 3% of people who have received it have had some sort of reaction / side effect which had them seeking medical attention, missing work etc.
So yeah, give me COVID thanks :)

kingRB 1st Jan 2021 08:08


Originally Posted by De_flieger (Post 10958230)
Those statements are incorrect.

There are numerous peer reviewed studies completed or being done into the long-term health effects of coronavirus due to the numbers of people experiencing long term symptoms or organ damage. You can read about one study that was done at St Vincents Hospital (Sydney) here: Australian study finds COVID-19 'long haulers' suffer symptoms months after coronavirus infection or one that was done in the UK here: Southmead Hospital publishes pioneering research on long term effects of coronavirus. There are many others out there, I don't want to spam you or the message board with links, but there is a lot of research being done in hospitals in many different countries all over the world including Australia and the USA on this exact topic, these results can be found relatively easily via Google taking you to their publishers or research organisations.

So like I said, nothing unique or new. An inference was made that Covid 19 has statistical percentage of permanent disability and ongoing effect. If there was any basis to that claim it would be being looked into as a matter of urgency. It's not.

De_flieger 1st Jan 2021 08:34


Originally Posted by kingRB (Post 10958268)
So like I said, nothing unique or new. An inference was made that Covid 19 has statistical percentage of permanent disability and ongoing effect. If there was any basis to that claim it would be being looked into as a matter of urgency. It's not.

No, not at all. I don't know how you drew that conclusion from what I wrote. As the links I posted showed, and there are many other ongoing research projects along these lines in Australia and elsewhere, there is a basis to that claim regarding long term effects, and it is being looked at as a matter of urgency. One of the studies found that among hospitalised patients, approximately three quarters of them were suffering long term effects three months later. Another in Australia found 40% of those infected (not necessarily hospitalised) were still experiencing symptoms at the approximate three month mark. It is an active and ongoing field of research, despite what you say.

currawong 1st Jan 2021 09:53

Interesting the assumption that federal control of the situation would be any different, namely better, than what we have already.

Could go either way....

kingRB 1st Jan 2021 11:38


Originally Posted by De_flieger (Post 10958290)
No, not at all. I don't know how you drew that conclusion from what I wrote.

The claim was made by Australopithecus. I believe the figure stated was 20% of infections result in some form of permanent disability.


Originally Posted by De_flieger (Post 10958290)
As the links I posted showed, and there are many other ongoing research projects along these lines in Australia and elsewhere, there is a basis to that claim regarding long term effects, and it is being looked at as a matter of urgency.
One of the studies found that among hospitalised patients, approximately three quarters of them were suffering long term effects three months later. Another in Australia found 40% of those infected (not necessarily hospitalised) were still experiencing symptoms at the approximate three month mark. It is an active and ongoing field of research, despite what you say.

I never said there wasn't possible long term effects from it. What I said was there is absolute zero difference in its ongoing effects where reported, and any other known respiratory virus. Certainly none that is causing any adverse effects we haven't seen before. The links you posted show nothing more than acknowledgement of that fact :
"This research helps to describe what many coronavirus patients have been telling us: they are still breathless, tired, and not sleeping well months after admission. Reassuringly, however, abnormalities on X-rays and breathing tests are rare in this group. Further work in the DISCOVER project will help us to understand why this is, and how we can help coronavirus sufferers."



Australopithecus 1st Jan 2021 11:58


Originally Posted by JJ 789 (Post 10958256)
Actually go check your figures again on the CDC website. I as a 33 year old have a miniscule chance of dying if I contract COVID. Look at the average age of death for COVID-19. It's not even a high consequence infectious disease (downgraded in the UK back in March).
Also while you're at it, have a look at the figures for the Pfizer vaccine in the UK. Almost 3% of people who have received it have had some sort of reaction / side effect which had them seeking medical attention, missing work etc.
So yeah, give me COVID thanks :)

To be clear, I don’t care if you get vaccinated or not. . You will have skin in the game.I will not. Chances are you will be exactly in the vast group of your contemporaries that emerge free of lasting damage or even inconvenience. If not, well, you rolled the dice...

WRT to the side- effects of the Pfizer vaccine in the UK. Really? Examine the data and the commentary and then get back to me. The trial set was plenty large enough to reveal issues. They didn’t arise in the phase 3 trials, but they do in the twittersphere? Someone had better rewrite my statistical analysis texts then. Sore triceps and a short duration low grade fever are part of the standard reaction to vaccines.


aussieflyboy 1st Jan 2021 12:21

Apparently there’s a large (and growing) group of crew boycotting all WA flying on Monday the 11th of January as an ‘incentive to change’ Mr McGowans random border closure policy.

I can’t imagine this being very legal in the industrial sense however I’m not too sure? I guess there may be a bout of the 1 day cold getting around. Could be interesting if the media get hold of the idea.

Australopithecus 1st Jan 2021 12:23

In reply to King RB. :

I am not going to satisfy your demand for citations when you can search them yourself. Check the British Medical. journal, Lancet, and the New England Journal of Medicine . They are all free. If you lack a solid grounding in the life sciences, it won’t take you that much time and cross-referencing to get the gist. The elemental take-away is that in the tug-of-war between virus and vaccine, in the context of being able to retain a CASA, or any other, medical, there is a set of probabilities that reflects, mathematically, your comparative risk. Since the set of Covid-19 sufferers is 80 million ish, and the general CFR and Case long term effects are being quantified, the question then becomes what is the comparative risk of not being vaccinated. The younger you are, obviously, the more you can afford to entertain pig-ignorant superstition in the place of actual, you know-science. Go ahead...I would be keen to know if actual experience in the CASA regulatory environment is as forgiving and risk-rewarding as you obviously seem to think it would be.

Best of luck, and a safe and Happy New Year.

Oh by the way...I didn’t, in fact, claim 20% permanent disability. Read it again.


WingNut60 1st Jan 2021 14:44


Originally Posted by aussieflyboy (Post 10958463)
................as an ‘incentive to change’ Mr McGowans random border closure policy.

In what way are you seeing his policy as random?
He has closed every state and territory border at some stage when they have had active Covid cases.

I'm just not seeing random. Happy to be enlightened.

Green.Dot 1st Jan 2021 19:19


Originally Posted by aussieflyboy (Post 10958463)
Apparently there’s a large (and growing) group of crew boycotting all WA flying on Monday the 11th of January as an ‘incentive to change’ Mr McGowans random border closure policy.

Good luck with that.

McGowan didn’t bat an eyelid when a Billionaire launched a high court challenge against the WA Govt. The pilots won’t win any hearts of 90% of the WA population either.


dr dre 1st Jan 2021 20:32


Originally Posted by Green.Dot (Post 10958703)
Good luck with that.

McGowan didn’t bat an eyelid when a Billionaire launched a high court challenge against the WA Govt. The pilots won’t win any hearts of 90% of the WA population either.

Agreed, I have no clue what this supposed action will achieve. At best a few FIFO shift changes are delayed by a day, and no one in any position of power even realises or cares that it happened.

At worst it hits the papers and those involved could face legal action for unauthorised organised industrial action, and be torn apart by the media. There’ll be no sympathy, every slur used against pilots who take any form of action (they’re all on $500k per year, they only work two days a week, flying is all automated anyway) will be spread all across the news and they’ll win no supporters.

There’s more diplomatic and constructive ways to deal with this.

Ragnor 1st Jan 2021 21:00

I thought Dan had a solid rock plan for covid even employing a covid commander to oversee it. Hard border closure now they’re running for the hills in Victoria. You would think tho, after the last mess up they had they would be prepared but typical labour gov can’t prepare for anything this is why WA closes ASAP when one case occurs they can’t cope either.

Victoria testing centers close being un able to keep up that is madness at its best, they want ppl to get tested but can’t test ppl. What is Dan doing down there, nothing obviously!

kingRB 1st Jan 2021 22:08


Originally Posted by Australopithecus (Post 10958464)
In reply to King RB. :

I am not going to satisfy your demand for citations when you can search them yourself. Check the British Medical. journal, Lancet, and the New England Journal of Medicine . They are all free. If you lack a solid grounding in the life sciences, it won’t take you that much time and cross-referencing to get the gist.

I don't need to go looking to find the evidence, I didn't make the claims. It's on you to substantiate what you said. It shouldn't be difficult if all the evidence is so apparent.


Originally Posted by Australopithecus (Post 10958464)
Oh by the way...I didn’t, in fact, claim 20% permanent disability. Read it again.

Didn't you? One of us has a reading comprehension problem then.

Originally Posted by Australopithecus (Post 10958211)
if infected, with any of the current known mutations you have an approximately 2% chance of dying, and an approximately 20% chance of having a lengthy long-covid illness or permanent disability.


wheels_down 1st Jan 2021 23:00

Great work NSW throwing Vic under the bus. Masks now Gladys? Your about 3 weeks too late.

Vic was just unlucky. Could have been any state that got this one.

Go on, you take your annual leave whilst the poor folks of Victoria are suffering as a result of your arrogance.

Green.Dot 1st Jan 2021 23:17

Less cases in NSW than Vic today. Talk about passing on a baton made of dynamite to a bunch of people who have just had f%€¥en enough.

Where was Annastacia in the relay race when you need her? :ugh:

Your contact tracing no doubt sh#ts all over Victoria but fcvk you Gladys for not mandating masks when we are now wearing them AGAIN under a dictator d!ck who will be relishing round 3 of this crap.

Rant complete. :}

Ragnor 2nd Jan 2021 00:43

So many angry at NSW, I told you all we are the best at handling this. As demonstrated we are single little country’s on one island no one wanting to learn or work with the virus. NSW could have show Vic the way.

Also let’s not forget the clusters Victoria residents started in Sydney back in May, June.

SHVC 2nd Jan 2021 00:46


Originally Posted by wheels_down (Post 10958783)
Great work NSW throwing Vic under the bus. Masks now Gladys? Your about 3 weeks too late.

The arrogance! Victoria has had plenty of time to prepare they obviously have not. Covid is here for years to think otherwise is even more arrogant.

Potsie Weber 2nd Jan 2021 00:58

So maybe McClown’s shutting of the WA border to all NSW on Dec 19 wasn’t such a stupid idea?

airdualbleedfault 2nd Jan 2021 01:59

Hate to admit I was thinking the same thing Potsie

myshoutcaptain 2nd Jan 2021 03:03


Originally Posted by Potsie Weber (Post 10958821)
So maybe McClown’s shutting of the WA border to all NSW on Dec 19 wasn’t such a stupid idea?

Retrospective isolation for crew backdated to anyone’s guess and just landing in a state other than WA constitutes entering that State even if you don’t leave the aircraft!.

No other crews have the restrictions McGowan has applied to WA crews but still expects FIFO and cargo to continue.

Whilst the population moves freely unabated the crews are locked at home.

aussieflyboy 2nd Jan 2021 03:26


Originally Posted by myshoutcaptain (Post 10958848)
Retrospective isolation for crew backdated to anyone’s guess and just landing in a state other than WA constitutes entering that State even if you don’t leave the aircraft!.

No other crews have the restrictions McGowan has applied to WA crews but still expects FIFO and cargo to continue.

Whilst the population moves freely unabated the crews are locked at home.

Our company has just about given up rostering crew to NSW and Vic from WA. The whole crew goes sick to avoid the 2 weeks quarantine.

myshoutcaptain 2nd Jan 2021 03:42


Originally Posted by aussieflyboy (Post 10958849)
Our company has just about given up rostering crew to NSW and Vic from WA. The whole crew goes sick to avoid the 2 weeks quarantine.

About time Jayne and Alan had a chat and sorted it then.

You’d think Airline Pilot and Flight Attendant would classify as Transport and Logistics. Rolling testing like a Kenworth driver.

Maybe we should offload anything in the hold other than bags.

Ragnor 2nd Jan 2021 06:35


Originally Posted by myshoutcaptain (Post 10958853)
About time Jayne and Alan had a chat and sorted it then.

You’d think Airline Pilot and Flight Attendant would classify as Transport and Logistics. Rolling testing like a Kenworth driver.

Maybe we should offload anything in the hold other than bags.

Not sure what AJ and JH would achieve. I think the states would much prefer if all airlines didn't fly each premier does not give to hoots about QF, JQ, VA Rex etc for them it would be one less place they have to send resources to so they could use them on the border.

Angle of Attack 2nd Jan 2021 11:05

Why all the bickering? Who cares about states and their premiers, they are basically pawns on a chess board. Perth, Brisbane they will be next, it will get out regardless. The weakest link in this whole mess is the Hotel Quarantine System, every outbreak has come from failings in it. There needs to be a solution to quarantine overseas arrivals in remote locations away from population centres without workers mixing with the general population. Maybe I’m simplistic but this is where the weakest link is, why not fix it? While you import active cases of the virus into the middle of our Capital cities I see this Wash, Rinse, repeat continuing until early 2022. 2021 is going to be if anything worse than last year with this bunch of inert politicians around.

Sunfish 2nd Jan 2021 11:40

The weakest link is $#@#ing air transport!

dr dre 2nd Jan 2021 11:56


Originally Posted by Angle of Attack (Post 10959069)
this is where the weakest link is, why not fix it?

Feds don’t want to spend the money. Hotels that would be usually full of international travellers are empty so cheaper to put returnees there and service those hotels with cheap migrant labour working two jobs to get by, than create temporary remote quarantine with a higher paid FIFO workforce.

Dannyboy39 2nd Jan 2021 14:58


Originally Posted by Angle of Attack (Post 10959069)
Why all the bickering? Who cares about states and their premiers, they are basically pawns on a chess board. Perth, Brisbane they will be next, it will get out regardless. The weakest link in this whole mess is the Hotel Quarantine System, every outbreak has come from failings in it. There needs to be a solution to quarantine overseas arrivals in remote locations away from population centres without workers mixing with the general population. Maybe I’m simplistic but this is where the weakest link is, why not fix it? While you import active cases of the virus into the middle of our Capital cities I see this Wash, Rinse, repeat continuing until early 2022. 2021 is going to be if anything worse than last year with this bunch of inert politicians around.

Nauru maybe?

blubak 2nd Jan 2021 20:57


Originally Posted by Ragnor (Post 10958743)
I thought Dan had a solid rock plan for covid even employing a covid commander to oversee it. Hard border closure now they’re running for the hills in Victoria. You would think tho, after the last mess up they had they would be prepared but typical labour gov can’t prepare for anything this is why WA closes ASAP when one case occurs they can’t cope either.

Victoria testing centers close being un able to keep up that is madness at its best, they want ppl to get tested but can’t test ppl. What is Dan doing down there, nothing obviously!

His plan involves mandatory wearing of masks,Gladys has been told by every authority in the country to do the same & now 3 weeks later,she decides to.
She doesnt want to stop people going to the cricket because it might inconvenience them,oh how nice of her.

Ragnor 2nd Jan 2021 21:03


Originally Posted by blubak (Post 10959381)
His plan involves mandatory wearing of masks,Gladys has been told by every authority in the country to do the same & now 3 weeks later,she decides to.
She doesnt want to stop people going to the cricket because it might inconvenience them,oh how nice of her.

So because Dan makes ppl wear mask and locks them up for 111 days, he is doing a great job?

murder most fowl 2nd Jan 2021 21:06

How many sporting codes have continued this year with fans in attendance though other outbreaks? Its an outdoor venue with plenty of space and COVID plan in place.

blubak 2nd Jan 2021 21:28


Originally Posted by Ragnor (Post 10959384)
So because Dan makes ppl wear mask and locks them up for 111 days, he is doing a great job?

Never disputed his stuff up with hotel quarantine but whether u like it or not(& i certainly didnt) he got a result.
Isnt the aim to keep the numbers as low as possible?,that it seems is what is in place now but the virus hasnt gone away so we need to all do everything possible to achieve that whether u vote lib or lab not really important right now.

Green.Dot 2nd Jan 2021 21:32


Originally Posted by murder most fowl (Post 10959385)
How many sporting codes have continued this year with fans in attendance though other outbreaks? Its an outdoor venue with plenty of space and COVID plan in place.

I can’t recall too many large crowds this year when there were known clusters in the community but please correct me if I am wrong.

Remember back in July when Perth Stadium was to host 22,000 and lots of reservations about it. That was when Perth was getting negligible community cases a day (maybe zero, I can’t find the data.)

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/af...217c9175131b19

Meanwhile at the SCG fans are being asked to “cheer quietly”. Yeah that will work after a few schooners. Am I the only pessimist here? Great if they pull it off, but it will go down as one of the stupidest decisions in history if it fuels the fire.

https://www.reuters.com/article/cric...-idINKBN2940EN

NzCaptainAndrew 2nd Jan 2021 21:36

With 10% of Israel's population already vaccinated, why is Australia lagging so far behind?

Ragnor 2nd Jan 2021 21:37

You make a very fine point Blubak.

Keep the numbers low that was the sim back in March NSW has been doing that everyone else seems eradication is the aim now. Never going to happen as long as international arrivals are coming business remain open and ppl move around.

Now we have 7 individual country’s on one island that have different ideas normality will never return.

wheels_down 2nd Jan 2021 21:58


Originally Posted by NzCaptainAndrew (Post 10959394)
With 10% of Israel's population already vaccinated, why is Australia lagging so far behind?

No Vaccine has got approval yet. All those countries are essentially going ahead regardless of approval for emergency use only. Essentially they are victims of their own incompetence.

We are lucky to have the ability here to cross check

dr dre 2nd Jan 2021 22:15


Originally Posted by wheels_down (Post 10959400)
No Vaccine has got approval yet. All those countries are essentially going ahead regardless of approval for emergency use only. Essentially they are victims of their own incompetence.

We are lucky to have the ability here to cross check

No, they have an emergency use approval which was granted after full phase 3 trials for safety and effectiveness were completed.

The problem is the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) is expected to grant full approval to one or more of the vaccines sometime this month, yet the federal government’s rollout plan isn’t starting until March and won’t be completed until October. All this time and they haven’t made a comprehensive plan for storage, transport, public education, testing sites, staff etc. They haven’t pumped as many resources into the TGA to expedite proper vaccine rollout. As other nations have shown it can be rolled out quickly, our government just don’t want to spend the money or something else.

Airlines should be lobbying them to help distribute it as quick as possible.

lc_461 2nd Jan 2021 22:36

There was an interview done by the QLD CHO I think that described the rollout as one of the biggest logistical exercises ever done. Australia is one of the most decentralised populations in the world. Don't forget some communities in regional Australia don't even have a hospital with doctors.. Israel couldn't be more than 1/20th of the land mass.
Traditionally government is not great at large projects (remember the census...). I know it is upsetting for those in aviation (myself included), but I'd rather them take an extra few weeks to sort out the logistics and supply chain and try and get it right. The alternative is an almost certain clusterf#ck. I think Australia also has a much better chance of higher community coverage and take up by going through the proper channels rather than emergency protocols.
You have to remember for lots of the public (especially WA and QLD where little to no effort is being put into social distancing anymore), the virus is not impacting life and they are skeptical as to why they should even bother with the vaccine.. There was an article for Singapore or Korea where only 50% said they would bother with the vaccine due to skepticism about the emergency protocols. That would be a worst case scenario here. The same thing happened at the height of the first wave with the Covidsafe app, now a white elephant. Govt only has once chance to get it right with the population, and I think in this case they are spot on.

patty50 2nd Jan 2021 22:51

If they don’t get vaccine messaging right they will find themselves with millions of people refusing it. Vast majority of people who don’t want ordinarily take vaccines and give them to their kids. How does rushing the rollout and approval alleviate their concerns.

Blocking interstate travel is fine if 5% refuse but if 70% refuse then what are you going to do? Will be hilarious when Alan’s only customers are bedwetting boomers.

dr dre 3rd Jan 2021 00:04


Originally Posted by lc_461 (Post 10959413)
l Australia is one of the most decentralised populations in the world. Don't forget some communities in regional Australia don't even have a hospital with doctors.. Israel couldn't be more than 1/20th of the land mass.

Australia’s population is concentrated in several urban centres near the coast. We’re 86% urbanised, one of the world’s highest, so apart from some very sparse remote communities which will benefit from government funded vaccination programs it’ll actually be easier to vaccinate Australians.


Originally Posted by patty50 (Post 10959421)
If they don’t get vaccine messaging right they will find themselves with millions of people refusing it. Vast majority of people who don’t want ordinarily take vaccines and give them to their kids. How does rushing the rollout and approval alleviate their concerns.

We have no jab no play. That’s worked, and flu vaccine uptake was around 70% for 2020. Employers will make it mandatory, schools will make it mandatory, it’ll be mandatory to travel, the elderly and vulnerable will desire it. The vast majority of people aren’t anti-vaxxers, unless influential people with an agenda are allowed to perpetuate that message in the media.

Ragnor 3rd Jan 2021 00:18

Employers can enforce vaccinations re write of policy include covid vaccination. All of us here that work for QF or JQ have had Hep B, Measles, Rubella and chicken pox vaccinations these are all a requirements employment well it was for me anyway.


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