Kind of hilarious -- a pilot (I guess) who doesn't understand chance events, and decides to miscalculate a ratio by about 10^4 ---.Vic is 20K cases from around 6M ppl, that's better than one in a thousand. Anyway:

Person 1 was an early bird, got on the wrong side of the Austrian barman super-spreader. Look it up.
Person 2, stood down person from aviation, caught it via community transmission before than main Vic lockdown.
Person 3 is Mrs Person 2

It's not rare here. It has a pretty good strike rate for messing up 45-somethings and upwards, from what I can tell.
On the positive side, Person 2's antibodies are still rocking a few months later, which is a good sign for vaxxes.

Yes, I didn't bother too much with the maths and did leave a few zeros off as a result. My error, but that's not the point.
In fact, you've almost made my point for me. Your situation is a highly unusual chance event, just like your other observations about it.
I knew someone who literally died in their 20s from influenza, but I understand that it was just incredibly unlucky, just like someone mid 40s actually suffering worse than a common cold from this thing.

So you have scientific evidence to support your claim?

meh. What’s a few zeros between friends.

And for all of you that think it’s just like the flu .. and you won’t lose your medical if you get it.. you may lose something worse !!


https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...a7125de493f29e

At least that should guarantee the anti-vaxers won’t be able to reproduce

There's no assistance from me for your argument, I will recap. Back at post #2283 you demonstrated ignorance of the reality of COVID-19 prevalence in Victoria by a factor of 10,000. You then proceeded to the infer that I had fabricated or embellished a story: "... sprouting uninformed anecdotal bull****...".

Your point, indicated by "... (someone would be) incredibly unlucky, just like someone mid 40s actually suffering worse than a common cold from this thing ...", is supported by evidence or professional opinion about COVID-19 from what source? Or personal belief based on observing the world around you, or even wishing it a certain way?

You stated anyone suggesting the virus is inconsequential is "sprouting uninformed bull****" and gave anecdotal evidence that a few neighbours have it thus it's dangerous to those in their 40s.
I suggested that itself is "sprouting uninformed anecdotal bull****" because the data itself shows 99.4% of people with the virus in that age group are either asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms. Your extremely unlucky situation to have so many people at that age with severe symptoms in such a close proximity does not reflect the norm with this virus. That is the only point I was trying to raise.

no jab....no job....it’s the policy coming to an airline near you. There is no escape....

So if you inoculate 10,000 staff, every one of those 10,000 staff have all different immune responses and different metabolisms.
I'II take the jab no problem as long as you can guarantee it won't cause havoc with your pancreas, liver, autonomic nervous system
in 5 years time. Or have they tested all that.
Note all these med companies haven't explained what contents are in the vile.
Usually if you eat something you would like to know what's in the contents as described on the packet.
Doesn't matter about your health in 5 years time, get those planes flying.
You can change me to a pro vaccine any day, if you can get rid of the neurotoxins associated with them.

Precisely. I know 9 people
who had COVID-19. The worst symptom for 1 of them was a mild temp for a day. The rest suffered from a runny nose, or lack of taste and smell for a week or two.

Doesn’t mean COVID-19 is harmless to everyone - but for over 99% it’s barley an issue.

A lot of people have trouble with statistics....

I think you might be the one who has a problem with statistics.

UK death rate is 3.6%
USA death rate is 1.9%

I think it’s safe to say that well over 1% of people who catch COVID have a rather large issue (i.e. they dead). Feel free to educate yourself at the following link,

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

I think it’s also safe to say, well over 1% of people have serious consequences, the US had over 100,000 people in intensive care on 2 Dec.

I can't find my calculator, but can you remind me what 1% of Australia's population would be?

And when the hospitals ICU wards are full, and perfectly healthy you have a stroke / heart attack / car crash injury where do you go? The local medical centre?

I can do that in my head. Based on 25627453 it is 25627
If we had a rate that Belgium has we would be looking at 38636 deaths
Belgium was being held up as a country that was doing good earlier in the year.

What happened??

This data is skewed in that there is a large number of people with the virus who don't get tested. What is clear, is that the more testing that gets done, the more the fatality rate gets reduced. Again, I'm not anti-vax, I will take the vaccine, same as I take the flu vaccine. But fat load of good that's done eliminating the flu.

Well, after what I have seen the last two days in Sydney. Domestic appears to be going pretty hard JQ check in packed, central food court and following to JQ side shoulder to shoulder good to see all the shops open again.

Because that’s not what it’s purpose is, read these:

It's incorrect to say flu vaccines don't work

Fact check: Flu vaccine hasn't eradicated the flu, but it has lessened the burden of the virus

Touché dr dre. I did exactly what I hate others doing, and tried to make a point using an irrelevant comparison. My apologies. However, having had both covid and the flu, I still feel that all of our opinions on how this thing has been handled are valid because they come from our individual experiences. I understand that certain people feel the lockdowns should be stricter. I understand people are scared, and I can empathise. I also realise that some people are scared of dying, and others are scared of not living. I usually spend my off time jumping out of planes, or surfing. I haven't done either of those things since March. To me, spending a year of my youth hiding from a virus that I've already had; of course I will have a different opinion to someone more vulnerable or risk-averse. I've lost my career, my car, and haven't seen my girlfriend since February due to this. I'm scraping by (got my first big job in Jan, retrenched in March). I'm not looking for sympathy here, just explaining why some people may have differing opinions. I feel like I've done my part (except contracting covid:ugh: but I isolated strictly then). If this vaccine doesn't work, is this us for good? Where do we draw the line on things that have risk? Like what is the exact percentage? Do we ban cars, alcohol, playing rugby? We seem to have completely rejected the fact that we're all going to die at some stage. And for those that are scared, and have already made their money, why can't they just continue doing what they've been doing? Why do the rest of us have to isolate also? Anyways, way off topic sorry, I should be doing something more productive on a Monday. Anyone need to be flown anywhere?:{

But the vaccine does work, with up to 95% effectiveness. It may end up becoming a periodic jab to maintain effectiveness, and if 70% of the population is immunised then the incidence of illness in the community should reduce to manageable levels. If the flat-earth subset of populations continue to embrace stupid behaviours then we will continue to see isolated pockets of disease, but they should in theory be easily contained.

Disclaimer: no graduate degree in this or any related field.

By stupid behaviours, is that like going out? Or something more specific? I'm not being facetious, genuinely curious what we will deem to be reckless. Imagine no more partying or traveling or seeing mates.

Good question. By stupid behaviours I guess I was thinking of what we see from America, where people are quick to loudly insist on their rights while completely ignoring their responsibilities. After the vaccine has had wide scale take-up I don’t know what the limits of prudence will dictate. We should always keep the hygiene practices, and where possible, social distancing. Would it be a bad thing to embrace the Asian habit of wearing a mask when suffering from a cold?

I expect that with enough of the population inoculated Covid-19 will eventually be like the flu: mostly sporadic manageable cases with the odd mortality.

Also understand that I am writing from an Australian perspective. The virus is all but eradicated here, and people are now behaving more normally. We are however aware that international arrivals can spark yet another outbreak that may re-introduce the virus so so e safeguards like masks indoors are still in wide use. The flights are pretty full, and the airport reunions all seem pretty joyous and pretty intimate. Just a few more months (6?) and this will be mostly behind us.

Before anyone jumps down my throat about not being an expert, I am asking because I genuinely want to learn. I always thought (because I was told), that your immune system gets stronger by being exposed to germs. I thought exercise, eating veggies, letting kids play in dirt, were all factors? Now its avoid everything at all costs. If we have kids soon, do doctors recommend keeping them as sanitised as possible? Again, I am seriously not being facetious. It just seems that we have drastically changed our thinking over the last few months.

Not wearing masks, large gatherings amongst maskless/unvaccinated crowds, failing to isolate/seek medical care when sick etc. If lockdown restrictions have to be temporarily put back in place organising a "Covid Truth" protest.....

Like was said for the most part these aren't a factor in Australia. Look at how much media attention the one case of the German tourists (it was not their stuff up btw, it was NSW Police) attracted and they did not even have the virus. These points are a factor in other nations, just last week in the US a one day death toll exceeded those killed in the WTC attacks, and the numbers are spiking upward through their dark winter.

Now you can travel around Australia, see mates, party for the most part at bars and restaurants. Once the vaccine uptake is widespread here and protocols for allowing immunised travelers into the country are put in place that will be extended to overseas travel. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

boeinga320, I truly can't comprehend why people under (say) 30 are putting up with this, and as far as I can tell, it is not destined to get better any time soon. I don't have any insight into South African strategy (where you seem to be from, a/c username data), but UK vax strategy is public and Australian will follow fairly soon. UK vax policy is all about avoiding mortality - URL is too long to post, google for "Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation: advice on priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination". NOTHING in that paper talks about needs and aspirations of age cohorts who have little to be concerned about when it comes to COVID (except passing it on to their oldies or unusually vulnerable friends). There is NOTHING in the reasoning for prioritization about restoring normality, enjoyment, freedom, etc for say under 30's. Does not rate a mention. The Australian 2021 vax program is predicated on X million doses (X / 2 million vax, @ 2x dose per person, where I can't say what X is due confidentiality, but it is way south of 26.5), with anything beyond that being good fortune. Present indications are that it's near-identical to UK policy.

Turns out (according to model based analyses) that if the objective was to reduce the size and duration of outbreaks, so that we could relax social distancing and give maximum social freedom, then we'd concentrate on vaccinating the people in high-contact professions immediately after covering the healthcare and critical professions like firefighters and defence personnel. But nup, after healthcare they're working their way down the age curve, oldies first - despite the fact that the elderly spread the virus less (they are more commonly "sinks" in the social networks) compared to taxi drivers, people in retail, etc etc. Basically every vax given to an oldie just protects them, there is no (disease spread( spinoff benefit for society more broadly.

I fear that Dec 2021 could still look a lot like Dec 2020 for much of the world's younger generations, and FWIW, they have my blessing to act up about this.

We should have seen so much more innovation around maintaining normality and enjoyment for the under-30s during the COVID period. But when doctors are put in charge, alongside mainly married-with-children middle aged+ pollies, that is just not on the radar.

It would be a great thing. Covid Deaths per 1 million of population in selected countries:

Japan 18
China 3
South Korea 11
Malaysia 12
Vietnam 0.5
Thailand 1
Singapore 5

And some western countries for comparison:

USA 870
UK 900
France 840
Brazil 830
Italy 1000

I think it would be a very beneficial thing for Australia to adopt far more aspects of Asian culture into our own than just the wearing of masks.

Try it with a calculator. Do you get the same answer?

unexplained blip, exactly. Everyone who tells me to stay home and isolate, can either work from home, or has money saved up. And they say that I should have saved more (fair enough and lesson learned, but I'm 29 years old). I got sent home from Dubai to a country that pays 31 Aussie dollars unemployment per month and since March I am yet to receive that. I have a uni degree in Computer Science and economics, and the best job I could find was delivering pizzas. When I got covid 2 months ago, I was told how irresponsible I've been by driving around. Again, not looking for sympathy, but sometimes people don't seem to realise that not everyone has a nice trust fund or big savings to live off. I realise I don't really have the right to be posting on an Aussie forum so I'll stop after this one. Chins up everyone and let's hope this nonsense is nearly over. I'm off to deliver another Margherita. Fingers crossed for a tip.

boeinga320 let me guess. Even though you have had COVID-19 *and* the governments of the world are obsessed with vaccines and how quickly they can get hold of them, you have gone and got yourself vaccinated naturally, and yet have not one jot of extra freedom or privilege --- despite having obtained exactly what they are all so desperately scrambling and longing for? And since then, nobody has asked you to step into a critical role to exploit your immune status - am I right? You are not flying freight around the globe, carefree and safe as houses? Drafted into Medivac? Tending to the sick and needy? Nup, you are delivering pizza.

And it is exactly the same here. It's infuriating.

I'm only aware of reports of this occurring in rare cases where there remains conjecture about what recurrence is indicating, and where symptoms are mild. If there is a considerable swing towards reinfection, then vaccination programs like Australia's proposed one that don't get everyone done in a short period (rather, less than a third annually), are in trouble. In the worst case we're back at an exclusion strategy again.

Even PCR (swab) tests are maximum just over 75% reliable (!!) and so people as potential recurrence cases would need blood analysis done in order to be confirmed. Pseudo-reinfection, or long-running infection that was never fully cleared, masked by dud PCR tests is an option that remains in play at least in theory.

Immunized people present surfaces for transporting the virus, and some people might have a residual susceptibility (what infectivity that will relate to is unknown), So some precautions may remain necessary. Nevertheless these previously-infected people are an asset that at least in Australia don't seem to be being utilized, and this is inconsistent other strategy elements. Aircrew going o/s still have to isolate for two weeks despite their personal COVID history afaik.

There was a philosophical decision early on to dismiss the idea of an immunity passport for those that caught the virus naturally. Maybe this was because there'd then be a whole lot of frustrated under-30s licking each other with the intention of gaining freedom? This policy has stuck and also remains at odds with the vaccination orientation. I am cynical and put it down to medicine's god-complex mixed-in with a lack of imagination and innovation of behalf of our governments.

"There was a philosophical decision early on to dismiss the idea of an immunity passport for those that caught the virus naturally. Maybe this was because there'd then be a whole lot of frustrated under-30s licking each other with the intention of gaining freedom? This policy has stuck and also remains at odds with the vaccination orientation. I am cynical and put it down to medicine's god-complex mixed-in with a lack of imagination and innovation of behalf of our governments."

"dud PCR tests"

Kind of answered your own question there.

What does McIdiot over in the west have to gain by carrying on like a 2 yr old kid do WA ppl really like this fool? He is not attending national cabinet in Canberra because SM the SA premier is attending saying he doesn’t want to catch cooties from him.

My mother in law and the rest of the family live in WA, and I can assure you they are more than happy with us COVID carrying eastern staters to stay out of WA. They are a very parochial bunch anyway, but this has just reinforced it. They love McGowan, but word on the street is they don’t have a contact tracing division, or a decent supply of respirators and other ICU type medical equipment, and after the SA blip, they are madly trying to get their act together just in case.

As a tax payer I would like to see all of them doing a lot more on zoom....

Rubbish! WA has had an automated monitoring and contact tracing system in place since April. 50 staff with a standby pool of 400, expanding to 1000. 4691 additional response pool positions in medicine, nursing, pathology etc. Surge capacity ICU beds to 647, 273 ventilators (90 more on order) giving an estimate to manage 25,800 active cases. Targeting 40wks of PPE (Some items at this level, remaining around 18wks supply). Aged care response plan tested in August. All documented in Attorney Generals report in September. GtoG App with ability to home isolate (photo schedule messaging) and just implemented QR code sign in app for restaurants etc.

Plenty of WA ppl have never been to the east coast and simply don’t care. They’re happy to keep the plague out.

I don’t really understand why East Coasters care about WA, with the vast majority of us having nothing to do with the sandgropers. Queensland and NSW border on the other hand is understandable, there’s a huge mixing of people.

I don't care to much for the West either, there are others that do for reason like family employment etc. Still no need for an elected leader to carry on like a child, its the whole school yard taunt " I don't want to touch him he has cooties"

If he had gone and met with Marshall you'd call him a hypocrite. He stuck to his own rules, which is more than can be said for Gladys.

Yeah shame on Gladys for being the only Premier with the confidence and intellect to balance an economy and pandemic at the same time.

Say what you will about McGowan at least he’s been consistent. He‘s stuck by his own rules even though it’s separated him and his family in NSW this whole time. And he didn’t bend the rules to give them an exemption. Pretty consistent and non-corrupt if you ask me. Isn’t that what we seek in leaders?