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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

Green.Dot 20th Nov 2020 00:48


Originally Posted by Green.Dot (Post 10929818)
I say good on SA for making the big call early. It wasn’t just a small number of cases, it was 20 or so in 48 hours from nothing. If it turns out to be nothing they can call stumps in 3 days.

Stumps to be called on day 3 (Saturday night). Big win for SA and the rest of the country

GaryGnu 21st Nov 2020 02:51


Originally Posted by unexplained blip (Post 10929512)
Not a pilot; and usually politically quite left of centre. I am involved in COVID data work and advisory including analysis towards air travel reopening. I can say that 'zero' is a bloody-minded, aesthetic and egotistical choice by several state leaders and their close sets of advisors.

.......

The data shows that we all had a great and successful approach March-May but now the wheels are well and truly off. Yes it is better that the wheels rolled south to zero, rather than rolled north to infinity -- but they are still off. The majority of relevant scientists, sociologists, economists and data-wranglers are NOT being harnessed or listened to; and state and national strategy is a total shambles.

unexplained blip thanks for taking the time to contribute that post to this forum. I know this place is anonymous and we cannot truly know who is writing what, but it’s nice to have different perspectives put to us.

Ragnor 21st Nov 2020 23:58

What will Palachooks excuse be to keep NSW locked out of QLD this month?

Will be interesting if Palachook will open to fellow Labor compatriot DA.

DirectAnywhere 22nd Nov 2020 01:26


Originally Posted by GaryGnu (Post 10931330)
unexplained blip thanks for taking the time to contribute that post to this forum. I know this place is anonymous and we cannot truly know who is writing what, but it’s nice to have different perspectives put to us.

Certainly one of the better posts I've read.

krismiler 23rd Nov 2020 00:53

The UK locked down and largely contained the virus a few months ago, then they relaxed most restrictions. This resulted in another wave and a second lockdown being imposed,

Singapore locked down for seven weeks back in April/May to contain a surging case load, restrictions were heavily enforced. The virus was largely contained and a gradual opening up was initiated. Some restrictions are still in place but apart from international travel and nightclubs things are largely back to normal, with nearly two weeks of no new local cases and around sixty current ones.

A gradual easing of restrictions and a carefully monitored, staged opening up can be safely accomplished.


Ladloy 23rd Nov 2020 02:18


Originally Posted by Ragnor (Post 10931903)
What will Palachooks excuse be to keep NSW locked out of QLD this month?

Will be interesting if Palachook will open to fellow Labor compatriot DA.

Seems like it should happen soon now that the requirements are met for Sydney. I'm sure Vic will be soon too. Could be a good Christmas

Ragnor 23rd Nov 2020 05:17

NSW have 30 days with no unknown community transmission, QLD said its 15 days so if it keeps going they could open 6th December or wait to the 26th December to make a decision.

Whispering T-Jet 23rd Nov 2020 05:29

unexplained blip Great post can we have it on the front page of the newspaper please!

Random snap lockdowns and border closures on outbreaks that don't even meet national hotspot criteria will continue to kill tourism, avaition and education.
Who will ever book a WA holiday again if you may get thrown in quarrantine prison due to a decison made mid flight? As for Anastacia Pluckaduck - inexcusable politicing to play to the parochial penaut gallery.

Gladys is the only grown up in the country right now.

thorn bird 23rd Nov 2020 08:05

Probably sticking my neck out but I can't help thinking more than 99% of people infected, survive Covid, many didn't even know they had it.

If the world never knew it existed in the first place, would it have spread around the world with the media reporting an unusually virulent flu season? without the extraordinary hysteria we see at the moment.

Sorry to the true believers, but I can't help thinking that the "Cure" might just end up worse than the disease.






KRviator 23rd Nov 2020 08:55

I just can't get my head around a virus, that is "sooo deadly", you need to be tested to know if you have it!

Ladloy 23rd Nov 2020 09:11


Originally Posted by KRviator (Post 10932680)
I just can't get my head around a virus, that is "sooo deadly", you need to be tested to know if you have it!

Annual deaths in UK and US are on track to be 10% higher than normal. They're countries that haven't taken it seriously. It's the equivalent of another 15000 people dying this year on top of our normal death rate.

KRviator 23rd Nov 2020 09:19

And the problem with that is....?

Sure, it is depressing and upsetting for some. But so is losing your job, your home, your livelihood and your future because we've locked down the country, close our state borders at the drop of a tissue and think that is an appropriate response! Of course it is an appropriate response.... But that's when viewed from a health perspective. Ask an Economist if they think closing the borders as done so far is an appropriate response to "save" 15,000 lives and you'll get a very different answer...

Ladloy 23rd Nov 2020 09:41


Originally Posted by KRviator (Post 10932696)
And the problem with that is....?

Sure, it is depressing and upsetting for some. But so is losing your job, your home, your livelihood and your future because we've locked down the country, close our state borders at the drop of a tissue and think that is an appropriate response! Of course it is an appropriate response.... But that's when viewed from a health perspective. Ask an Economist if they think closing the borders as done so far is an appropriate response to "save" 15,000 lives and you'll get a very different answer...

US state Borders are open, how's their economy and airline industry going?

Sweden just ended their experiment too.

dr dre 23rd Nov 2020 10:11


Originally Posted by KRviator (Post 10932696)
Ask an Economist if they think closing the borders as done so far is an appropriate response to "save" 15,000 lives and you'll get a very different answer...

Will you?:

Australian economists: don’t sacrifice health for ‘the economy’

Albeit written in April, when calls to reopen from the usual suspects had already started. It’s difficult to find a consensus or any real comment from economists now about the state of the border. There’s some talk of allowing migrants or international students, but these would be long term arrivals with a 2 weeks quarantine. I think the talk here is more of international tourists or short term visitors who probably wouldn’t want a two week enforced stay in a hotel room before being allowed to go outside and spend money in the economy.

dr dre 23rd Nov 2020 10:33


Originally Posted by KRviator (Post 10932680)
I just can't get my head around a virus, that is "sooo deadly", you need to be tested to know if you have it!

Yeah so overrated, that the USA, which usually has 20-50,000 deaths per influenza season every year has had 260,000 dead so far outside of flu season and is currently suffering a rate of 1500 dead per day and growing, which even if kept at that level would result in another 100,000 dead in just the next two months.

But the Covidiotism is strong in some parts of the world (mostly the US). From abuse of doctors, to patients dying in denial and angry, to patients who refuse masks and demand quack treatments, to those who think it’s all political and finally the healthcare workers suffering the emotional toll of having to deal with these morons.

I don’t know if the virus was to break out in Australia that we would see the same level of brainwashed cult like denialism that has allowed to virus to ravage other parts of the world.

dr dre 23rd Nov 2020 11:01


Originally Posted by Whispering T-Jet (Post 10932595)

Gladys is the only grown up in the country right now.

The only adult flaunts rules every one else has to abide by!:

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian under fire over breach of NSW Health isolation rules after coronavirus test

minigundiplomat 23rd Nov 2020 20:29

Dre,

Seen as you are keen to use the USA as an example, I will too. Under the CARES act, private hospitals get an additional 20% for COVID patients, and uninsured COVID patients are paid for by the federal government. If you think that's lost of private hospitals with shareholders and unconnected to the figures you quote, I have a car you might be interested in. Back to Australia, and many of those that have perished from COVID did so because of the poor controls over those caring for the elderly in care homes, the large majority having multiple underlying conditions (a family member included).

I am no tin hat wearer; COVID is real, and it kills the vulnerable. But maybe we should have moved to protect the vulnerable rather than running around like Chicken Little and closing all the borders and stuffing up the economy for decades; for most of us, we have a >99% chance of survival.

If your at 36,000 feet and you have a problem with the plane, you don't stop flying.

dr dre 23rd Nov 2020 21:49


Originally Posted by minigundiplomat (Post 10933199)
Dre,

Seen as you are keen to use the USA as an example, I will too. Under the CARES act, private hospitals get an additional 20% for COVID patients, and uninsured COVID patients are paid for by the federal government. If you think that's lost of private hospitals with shareholders and unconnected to the figures you quote, I have a car you might be interested in.

It sounds like you’re suggesting that US hospitals are deliberately inflating Covid numbers for cash. That is pretty much tin foil hat stuff right there. It’s also quite fake.


But maybe we should have moved to protect the vulnerable rather than running around like Chicken Little and closing all the borders and stuffing up the economy for decades; for most of us, we have a >99% chance of survival.
Who said we stuff up the economy for decades by doing it this way? I reckon the economies of nations where the virus is currently ripping through will be stuffed for longer than Australia. Economists agree:

On IMF forecasts, the economic contraction in the United States, the whole of the Euro area, the United Kingdom, and Canada will be twice that of Australia.

And the whole notion of “protecting the vulnerable” is far easier said than done.


If your at 36,000 feet and you have a problem with the plane, you don't stop flying.
If passengers onboard suddenly start having medial episodes that overwhelm the available medical supplies onboard we don’t just shrug our shoulders, say “they have underlying conditions”, and keep going to the destination whilst ignoring every alternate along the way.

minigundiplomat 23rd Nov 2020 22:10


It sounds like you’re suggesting that US hospitals are deliberately inflating Covid numbers for cash. That is pretty much tin foil hat stuff right there. It’s also quite fake.
I don't like that answer - therefore its fake.


And the whole notion of “protecting the vulnerable” is far easier said than done.
Yep, because locking down an entire state is a piece of p1ss......

Climb150 23rd Nov 2020 22:40

The "more money for CoVID cases" isn't a tin hat at all.

​​​https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...us/3000638001/

It only applies to Medicare (USA) patients.

After a 4 week stay in hospital 30 years ago, I heard nurses speak openly about exaggerating the condition of patients to get more weekly budget allocation. When I hear allegations of exaggerating patients diagnosis or cause of death during covid, I don't find it surprising at all.


dr dre 23rd Nov 2020 22:58


Originally Posted by Climb150 (Post 10933273)
The "more money for CoVID cases" isn't a tin hat at all.

Never denied that point. It’s the subsequent implication that hospital and medicos are deliberately lying and over inflating Covid numbers for that extra cash that is not backed by any evidence. From your article:

Ask FactCheck's conclusion: "Recent legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients and treatment, but there is no evidence of fraudulent reporting."

galdian 23rd Nov 2020 23:05


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10932773)

Flaunts? Did she have a few hundred people into her office for a piss up whilst awaiting the results? Did she invite a few hundred of her closest friend to an indoor lunch?

At some stage balance and perspective has to be reintroduced into discussions, the current tribalism and outright hate which has become the norm doesn't allow for anything like a fair and balanced discussion.

You hate Gladys and anything she touches automatically is sh1t - fine, so be it.
I suppose Chairman Dan's the other end of the spectrum where everything he touches is gold - irrespective of his "creeping assumption" position which to anyone with half a brain was stupidity and bullsh1t squared.

Maybe Taylor Swift got it right - the haters gonna hate hate hate - no discussion required, QED. :ugh:

Ladloy 23rd Nov 2020 23:18

Border open from the 1st for Sydney residents.

dr dre 23rd Nov 2020 23:27


Originally Posted by galdian (Post 10933289)
Flaunts? Did she have a few hundred people into her office for a piss up whilst awaiting the results? Did she invite a few hundred of her closest friend to an indoor lunch?

She did not isolate as required by NSW Health rules, continuing to meet with unrelated people in her office whilst waiting for test results. Doesn’t matter if it was 1 or 100 people she came into contact with. Someone who has undertaken a Covid test is assumed positive until confirmed negative.

Pilots who have had to isolate after testing can’t have friends over at their place, whether it’s 1 or 100 makes no difference. Leadership means lead from the front, no special exemptions based on status.

PoppaJo 24th Nov 2020 00:02


Originally Posted by Ladloy (Post 10933296)
Border open from the 1st for Sydney residents.

Don’t hold your breath. I mean, any small outbreak and she will click those fingers.

Climb150 24th Nov 2020 00:03


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10933286)
Never denied that point. It’s the subsequent implication that hospital and medicos are deliberately lying and over inflating Covid numbers for that extra cash that is not backed by any evidence. From your article:

Ask FactCheck's conclusion: "Recent legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients and treatment, but there is no evidence of fraudulent reporting."

Dan Andrews also suggest there is no evidence proving he knew that grossly undertrained people were used in Melbourne hotel quarantine hotels.

galdian 24th Nov 2020 00:13


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10933301)
She did not isolate as required by NSW Health rules, continuing to meet with unrelated people in her office whilst waiting for test results. Doesn’t matter if it was 1 or 100 people she came into contact with. Someone who has undertaken a Covid test is assumed positive until confirmed negative.

Pilots who have had to isolate after testing can’t have friends over at their place, whether it’s 1 or 100 makes no difference. Leadership means lead from the front, no special exemptions based on status.

So for such a heinous crime against society - because politicians are SO special they aren't real people and must NEVER make a mistake - what would be your preferred method of execution?

Hanging's effective but a bit boring, beheading maybe would be more exciting and entertaining for the gathered throng, maybe machine gunning in half would be a nice modern touch - if not a bit gruesome.

So many choices - so few politicians! ;)

brokenagain 24th Nov 2020 00:36


Don’t hold your breath. I mean, any small outbreak and she will click those fingers.
Somebody sneezes in Sydney and her and the sour face CHO will close the border quick smart. Look at how they’re handling Adelaide at the moment, no unlinked cases of community transmission and they’re still not opening the border. NT dropped the requirement as soon as they could. It highlights why we need a national approach to border management rather than dictator like state premiers incompetently running their own race.

dr dre 24th Nov 2020 00:48


Originally Posted by brokenagain (Post 10933333)
It highlights why we need a national approach to border management rather than dictator like state premiers incompetently running their own race.

Would you still agree to a national approach to state borders if it mirrored the current strict national approach to international borders (basically no free movement until a vaccine)?

slats11 24th Nov 2020 01:53

Interesting way of looking at 120 years of Swedish data.
1918 was the Spanish flu.
Each month is a colour. Red is April.
There were more deaths in April. That was C19.

But by the start of November
2020 was a bit worse than 2019
2020 was about the same as 2014, 15, 16, 17 and 18
2020 was a bit better than 2010, 11, 12 and 13.

Now maybe the last 6 weeks of 2020 will see a significant spike. Hopefully not, but maybe.
But that does not look likely given most European countries are experiencing lower mortality now compared to the 1st wave.


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....cc42f1bea3.jpg

slats11 24th Nov 2020 02:02

https://www.postoj.sk/65044/mnohe-ob...le-od-alkoholu

This pathologist is making a critical distinction between
SARS-CoV-2 ( the virus)
and
C19 (the clinical disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus).

It is a bit muddled here when he talks about "SARS-Co-2 infection" not being C19 (by definition, SARS-CoV-2 infection = C19). I presume he is talking about a positive PCR test where the patient is "colonised" by SARS-CoV-2 but with no actual invasive infection. Google translate can miss nuances. But I think that is what he means. That makes sense - we often swab a skin ulcer on a foot and will usually grow some bacteria, but most often these bacteria are simply colonising the ulcer (i.e. they are living on the ulcer and can be isolated in a lab), but the bacteria are not actually causing an infection, and antibiotics won't help as the ulcer is really caused by vascular disease or diabetes or something else.

So I think he is saying they had 366 C19 deaths (later increased to 390). But a further 127 deaths where the person had a positive PCR but did not have C19 (as no infection) and hence could not have died from C19.

The guy is making a lot of sense. Mortui Vivos Docent, the dead teach the living.

However in systems where you don't do an autopsy (rates are very low in many countries, and rates have decreased further this year due to concerns about viral transmission), you will over-count C19 deaths. If someone dies, there is a positive PCR, there is no other obvious cause of death, then the death is considered as C19.

Lots of old people die without an apparent cause. Something other than "old age" has to be written on a death certificate. So it is often put down to "dementia" or "heart failure" or something vague. But if you have a positive PCR and there is no other obvious cause, then the death will be attributed to C19.


Yesterday, korona.gov.sk reported 366 victims of Covid-19. What would be this number if we also added those victims who were positive for the coronavirus but died of another cause?
As of November 9, we have 366 deaths with Covid-19 (on November 10, the number increased by 24, ed. Note). We also have 127 deaths with SARS-CoV-2 infection detected, but these patients did not have Covid-19 and we only report them as infected in the statistics. It can be seen from these numbers that this is a significant difference. So if we didn't do a detailed investigation, we would have had significantly more deaths in Covid-19.
Some may say that, from the point of view of great statistics, this is negligible, but if we want to know exactly what the impact of the epidemic is, then, in my opinion, it is very important to have the most accurate numbers possible and to do it this way.https://www.postoj.sk/65044/mnohe-ob...le-od-alkoholu

It is in connection with a heart attack that the number of victims of the disease has been relativized in the past. So if someone had a coronavirus infested lung but also had a heart attack, what would we die for, according to our classification?
If we have a patient who has a myocardial infarction, is hospitalized and treated for this disease, and dies of the symptoms of heart failure, he is routinely tested for coronavirus in the hospital and in our country at autopsy.
If the patient was tested positive, then, of course, in this case we examine the morphological changes in the airways and lungs in great detail. If no changes are found to support the diagnosis of advanced Covid-19, then the patient will only be included in the statistics as a death with SARS-CoV-2 infection.
However, if it was a recent heart attack, say one to two days, and the development of changes in the lungs related to Covid-19 clearly show that it was a week-long process, then the patient will be closed with Covid-19 and died to its consequences. Here we can talk about myocardial infarction as the immediate cause of death, but the underlying disease, the primary cause of death was Covid-19, which contributed significantly to the failure of the body.
There have been 4 previous viral outbreaks in the PCR era - SARS, MERS, Zika, and Ebola.
With ALL 4 of these previous outbreaks, CDC and WHO agreed that a person with an initial positive PCR required 2 further things to be diagnosed as a case
i) a repeat confirmatory PCR test
AND
ii) clinical features of infection

That all changed with C19. A positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test = C19. No repeat test. No clinical features (as a large asymptomatic % is accepted as being part of the disease).
China however still requires a person to have a positive test (not clear if repeated) AND clinical features to be considered a case. They will still isolate and track positive PCR, but they are not cases.

Regarding the need for a confirmatory PCR test:
One study of positive SARS-CoV-2 samples tested the same sample a further 2 times (so each sample was tested 3 times). Note they didn't get another sample from the patient - they simply re-processed the sample a further 2 times.
55% of the time, the 2nd and/or the 3rd test were positive, and so the initial positive was considered a true positive
45% of the time, both the 2nd and 3rd test were negative, and so the initial positive was considered a false positive.

Green.Dot 24th Nov 2020 04:10


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10932773)

Your obsession with trying to make Dan Andrew’s look better is ridiculous. He will remain a deceitful and shady human being to the astute.

slats11 24th Nov 2020 04:31

You know, Sweden made its mistakes by not adequately shielding the elderly in nursing homes. The Swedish authorities publicly acknowledged this and apologised for their errors.

In contrast, the witnesses before the Victorian hotel inquiry all did their best impersonation of Sgt Schultz.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....bb6b351bd3.png




michigan j 24th Nov 2020 04:38

Not the first Premier to not isolate after developing symptoms

https://www.news.com.au/national/que...df5b7dafa32c38

Green.Dot 24th Nov 2020 04:47


Originally Posted by michigan j (Post 10933382)
Not the first Premier to not isolate after developing symptoms

https://www.news.com.au/national/que...df5b7dafa32c38

And the point being even though I am no fan of the Queen this is “click bait” and not the big issue.

But who am I to judge, it turns out over 800 dead in Victoria due to DA and his Govt’s incompetence is not a big issue either to all the “believers”.

Ragnor 24th Nov 2020 05:49

Now that wicked North has finally opened or would I say ran out of excuses. What is WA problem? what are they waiting for?

Turnleft080 24th Nov 2020 07:16


Originally Posted by Ragnor (Post 10933395)
Now that wicked North has finally opened or would I say ran out of excuses. What is WA problem? what are they waiting for?

As I'm the WA premier I have understood that all Sicktorians are eating triple donuts today and that would be enough to give you diabetes and diarrhoea.
According to our CHC we cannot have them throwing up, and depositing nasty leper pathogens sludge in our sewage.
Therefore the border will remain closed until they can clean up their act. They will not be allowed to utilise our toilets and toilet paper.
I wish them well.
The very reliable and honourable M. McGowan

KRviator 24th Nov 2020 07:42


Originally Posted by Ragnor (Post 10933395)
Now that wicked North has finally opened or would I say ran out of excuses. What is WA problem? what are they waiting for?

Seccession...

compressor stall 24th Nov 2020 21:25


Originally Posted by KRviator (Post 10933450)
Seccession...

Ain't that the truth.

minigundiplomat 25th Nov 2020 00:05

I was rather hoping WA would open and Victoria would push for seccession......


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