A virus mutating to become less virulent but more contagious is normal

Okey doke, so that has been pulled from a secondary source. I think we've previously covered the problem with relying on secondary reporting of primary source data.

To further underscore the problem with secondary and higher reporting, the CDC does not use phrases like 'COVID-19 vaccination deaths' with regards to the VAERS reporting data. In fact they go out of their way to repeatedly stress that Any reporting that passes off VAERS reporting as 'COVID-19 vaccination deaths' is somewhere between so woefully ignorant as to be useless and so maliciously disingenuous as to be dangerous.

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One of the sad realities of letting covid run in the community is that those in aged care and those that are vulnerable will be shut off from having a normal life and consigned to a jail like existence, again comes down to what price is freedom for the rest of us. I have family in aged care, and they are have been in lockdown for most of this pandemic. Are you all willing to work hard all life and then be jailed in retirement instead of being able to travel? What is done to the old and frail in this instance will set the tone for how you are treated later in life.

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Agree with you on the comparative risk analysis (which our leaders and health authorities seen unable to convey), but your paragraph on the elderly is confusing to me - you seem to conclude that they will be imprisoned either way, whether through letting covid run, or in protective lockdown with everyone else?

However, to bite the bullet of your warning re the elderly, I would suggest that our economic ability to provide for this section of society (which was already under growing strain with retiring baby boomers and increased retired life expectancy) is dependent upon the younger part of the population being able to get back to wealth creating work that can underpin such welfare.

I would add that I'm elderly, fully vaccinated (AZ, nil ill-effect) and with no intention of being "jailed in retirement", as you put it!

Thank you dr dre. Well said.
Whenever I come to read this and other threads I generally go straight to your posts.
They help me avoid the utter tripe written by several of the other posters.

Not normal, there is no normal behavior for virus in general. The main theory is that if a virus kills its host too quickly it will not survive, or pass on to another host. Covid as we all know is not as deadly as Ebola, so it has a long way to go before it is immobilising its host before given chance to transmit. Some viruses have become less virulent, some maintained the same and our systems adapted. Others were vaccinated or became dormant, or died out, there's suggestion the black death is just as deadly now as it was back in medieval days.

Australia is far away from ever not being able to afford that, they could cancel the submarine program overnight and double the aged care pension and still have change.

You need to be careful with statements like that. As viruses mutate the more transmissible mutations tend to dominate because they can outpace their less transmissible forebears in spreading throughout a population. It is unsurprising that the Delta-variant is more transmissible than previous dominant variants but it is largely happenstance that it is less virulent (has a lower case fatality rate).

Ebola, West Nile virus, and the Spanish flu are all examples of viruses that became more virulent after mutating. We also routinely see seasonal flus that are more deadly than their previous strain.

How do you know that?

PPRUNE has become DRPRUNE it seems....

Yes. Well put.

This was my connection to living in a coastal community with very old and visibly unhealthy Australians. They are getting vaccinated in large numbers knowing the COVID lessons from decadent and slothenly societies such as the USA. Of course, they are still dying in the same week, month or year as being vaccinated. Doesn't mean the vaccine is killing them.

And out of interest ( again ) can reluctant vaxers post as to whether they've lost their livelihoods in aviation due to COVID?

I think you're somewhat missing my point. Whether the nation's wealth is spent on submarines or aged care, it is only created by a sufficient element of the population being out and about labouring, paying taxes and buying goods & services.

Remove the current Chinese willingness to pay record prices for our fortunately socially-distanced mineral production (which happy circumstance owes nothing to our political decision makers) and the country would be (will be?) in deep trouble. Hiding in caves may be a short term expedient while awaiting a solution but it isn't the way out. Science is.

Queen P has closed QLD to NSW entirely. The last of the NRL family members were flown up to QLD late last night. Go you QLD you good thing!

QLD shutting to NSW. WA shutting to SA. Qantas talking of stand downs again. Rex almost grounded. Well done Gladys. If only you had gone early and hard.. the Gold Standard ain’t looking to gold at the moment.

Its a replay of VIC last year....

To be fair, Sydney mainly eastern suburbs mainly Bondi have flouted the lockdown from the get go. Those morning pictures on the tv showed ppl out side claiming to be “engaged in physical activity” increased ten fold. You can’t run with a coffee in hand Sydney.

SOPS you just found a new market. HBA-DRW.

The point being you could drop the subs and have significant budget savings. The Australian domestic market has surprised me how resilient it has been to the pandemic, and not from printing money. Strong switch to delivered goods and services and the housing market going the reverse of what was expected, all shows Aussies have lots of excess cash available to drive the local market. Just because aviation is tanking is not sinking the country, like said before the basics of mining and our generated national wealth is so far protecting us. People are not spending money in foreign countries and instead on domestic produce, meaning more local wealth is staying put in Australia.

If you asked me last year what the economy would be like this year with continued lockdowns etc, I would have agreed with the doom and gloom.

How many Australians sacrificed their lives in Vietnam, Europe and Korea in wars against tyranny, socialism and facism..seems strange that this terrified generation isn’t willing to risk anything to be able to go to work or school

It's not 'this' generation, it's the politicians governing said generation. I think you'd find a great many people are prepared to take responsibility (read, 'accept & manage the risk') for their own health in order to have an open Australia - I know I am - however, the politicians are trying to protect people from themselves, which is a cop-out if you ask me...

I just did a 2.4 round-robin in a plane I built in my back shed from bits that originally resembled a Meccano set. To some, that's lunacy, hurtling through the atmosphere several kilometers above the hard earth in something you built yourself. But to pilots & the home-built crowd, it barely rates a mention, for it's about appropriate (personal) risk-management, ie wearing boots, long pants, carrying a first aid kit & PLB, having ADS-B and lodging a flight plan so 'they' know where to look if I don't come home... But we can't be seen to allow people to accept responsibility for their own health & wellbeing these days, can we? That's too libertarian and 'Murican.

If the pollie's and their lapdog CHO's were truly concerned about saving lives, they'd ban tobacco in Australia outright and save 7,000 lives each and every year - but everyone here knows that'll never happen...

Just heard on the TV the stats for vax at the major Sydney vaccination hub a couple days ago:

On one day:

50 AZ jabs given. 9500 Pfizer.

The winner is Pfizer, the loser is Australia.

Plus more bad news with 2 in their forties passing today after their first jab of AZ.

SOPS/jrfsp,

Are you guys one and the same? Your posts seem to follow each other and always agree on harsh lockdowns and previously how good WA is at “crushing the virus”. Would love to know what your role in the aviation industry is, cause everyone else I know in this industry thinks the moron running WA has been an over-reactive muppet for the last 16 months, and shoulders a lot of the blame for the segregated country we now find ourselves in.

The other Premiers had no choice but to follow suit in closing borders to appease their own constituents once they saw what it did for McMaoan’s (thanks Betoota) approval rating. Plenty of things were let slip last year which suggested the border closures are nothing to do with health advice, like WA being a net exporter of tourism dollars.

The same state controls and border restrictions happened in 1919 for the Spanish flu, so this is nothing new. City quarantining for disease control is something that has been around for a long time. Claiming that this generation is somehow different, well just isn't true. At least this time we have vaccines available in the 2nd year.

PS; Vietnam and Korea war was vs Communists, not Socialists, most of Europe is Democratic Socialist based, including the UK, France and Germany.

SOPS drives trains. He told us how great it was compared to aviation a while ago.


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Given the propensity of this virus to disproportionately kill those over a certain age and the current ages of those generations who were willing to sacrifice their lives in Vietnam, Europe and Korea in wars against tyranny, socialism and fascism seems like there's at least a few who seem to be happy to see them doing the sacrificing yet again. Sounds entirely fair, doesn't it?

I think they more gravitate towards short and sharp lockdowns rather than drawn out ones that just end up imposing harsh restrictions for weeks ala Gladys. Even in Melbourne now, they went quickly and all bar 2 of today’s positive cases were in lockdown for their infectious period, a good result. NSW??? Who knows, they didn’t go hard quick enough and it seems the residents of Sydney aren’t taking it seriously enough.

Just going back the one generation, my father and father in law are both Vietnam Veterans. Yep, agreed, very angry at the state of play and the virus phobia of a seemingly soft nation.

However, you know the first thing they did? They got vaccinated! Although they don't want to see freedoms and opportunities vanish, along with economic wealth, nor do they want to be needlessly infected or be the excuse for keeping the nation locked up. I guess they still see beyond themselves? Unlike the reluctant vaxers. I think the anti-vaxers they'd just like to shoot.

It's hilarious that you think it's young peoples fault that we are locked down.

This is the middle aged fault, my generation. Power hungry stop at nothing to stay in power. I want this to stop. Make a date if you’re not vaccinated by that date learn how to live/hide or what ever I want to move on and not for work purposes only. I tired of being told I can’t go there,I can’t come in unless I have the tick, You need to wear a mask etc etc etc.

From the ABC news web site today.
Two deaths in the last week and you blokes wonder why there is hesitancy in Australia?

For the record, I know these lock downs are bad for the industry. ( I spent 35 years in aviation.) But if we have to have them, hard and quick is the way to go. Not like Gladys .. hesitating and not being sure what to do ( egged on by Scomo) to the point where she has now lost control and the situation in NSW could go on for months.

This latest announcement brings the total of deaths linked to the vaccine to six people out of 6.1 million doses administered across the nation.

That's a vaccine that is 99.9999 percent safe. You've got to wonder what else these people are hesitant about?

Since they’re terrified of a virus that kills almost no one stands to reason they will be terrified of a vaccine that kills almost no one

I will let Matty answer this for you :-)

And the more people throw flippant statements like that around, downplaying the aggressiveness of this virus, another group of the less educated jump in a truck, drive around Australia spreading it further, possibly paying for it with the death of their loved ones. I read these comments and I think Australia might be the lucky country, but its also the stupid country, no wonder the government gives us no choice.

And yet there are over 20 road deaths each week and there is no driving hesitancy.

Its quite simply the political beat up over it last year and the media sensationalising it. Otherwise average Joe wouldn't care at all, like most other vaccines and just get it done. Hence why a good public health program needs the media fully on side, so you can quell most of the attention seekers and headline grabbers.

Speaking of last year. If you remember lockdown 1 and most of 2, the narrative and sole purpose of lockdowns was to bend the curve. I repeat bend the curve.
That came out of Sutton and Andrews every presser in March /April last year. We all know about hotel quarantine and tracing was in it's infancy. However they did
bend the curve according to WHO protocols. So if that narrative was still in play today, all borders would be open and contact tracing controlling cases under the say 30 mark.
However, all the health departments (the bureaucrats) decided to throw all that in the bin and go for suppression hence the anguish we have today.

Also some of us suggested back then, Why not isolate the elderly and vulnerable and keep the young ones working. That was without a vaccine at the time. Wuhan strain. Deadly
So I will ask that same question today, Why not isolate the elderly and vulnerable and keep the young ones working. Now 70% vaxed over 70yo protected . Delta strain. Not as Deadly.
But all comes back to that word suppression.

Almost no one?
US 625,000+ dead
India 420,000 dead
Brazil 545,000+ dead
Mexico 237,000+ dead
UK 128,000+ dead
​​​​​​...

They say misery loves company but it looks like folly travels in pairs.

Do you fellows share a bridge or do you deal with those pesky goats separately.

The Andrews gov tried that coming out of the very first lockdown and were lulled into a warm fuzzy feeling by the federal gov that it would be easy to track and trace the virus and keep the community levels low. What they found was that this was not the case, the virus got loose in a school, and in the casual workforce due to the socio-economic locale of the breakout. Before you could blink it was in several aged care facilities that were still in complete lockdown and numbers swelled to 700 cases and deaths mounted, one of those aged care facilities was not more than 500 mtrs from me and 15 km from the nearest outbreak spot. I still have no idea how the virus got into that one. It was unnerving to see the area roped off and spacesuits walking around throwing out bedding and fittings into a giant plastic lined skip. Sydney was lucky as its breakout locations were easily contained back then. This is why Melbourne moved to suppression as it was clear you could not isolate vulnerable people within a community from the community, as the facilities require the community to operate. Also you then have the million plus Victorians over 50 and vulnerable who are not in care and definitely can not isolate from the community indefinitely.

This year the tables were turned, in a way, Melbourne had learned from harsh reality that they had to stomp on it early and hard, which has worked every-time since. Sydney tried to play politics in the last month rather than deal with it and is now paying the price.

If we had 80% vaccinations, no prob, non event, but its the opposite of that presently.

Because 80% of our population want "zero community transmission" particularly while the vaccination rate is so low. when those two numbers come closer together then policy will be
re-assessed. Until then, we do it the way we're currently doing it. There is still plenty of room for improving the way we're doing it.